Group 1: Metal New Materials - Copper prices are expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations, with LME and COMEX arbitrage space narrowing [8][9] - Aluminum prices are also anticipated to face high-level fluctuations, driven by inventory accumulation and the impact of delayed tariff expectations [9] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with carbonate lithium prices entering an upward cycle, while cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply [10][11] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have been rising, attributed to weak U.S. employment data and changes in margin requirements for precious metal contracts, which may increase market volatility [13][14] - The geopolitical situation, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela, has heightened demand for safe-haven assets, contributing to the upward momentum in precious metals [14][15] - China's gold reserves increased to 74.15 million ounces by the end of December 2025, reflecting ongoing central bank purchases that support gold prices [18] Group 3: North Exchange Market - The North Exchange has begun disclosing 2025 earnings, with Lin Tai New Materials and Hai Neng Technology forecasting significant profit increases, indicating a positive market outlook [19][20] - The market is expected to maintain liquidity, with structural investment opportunities arising from the technology sector and a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations [20] - Key investment directions include companies with expected earnings growth, those in the service consumption sector, and firms in the new energy vehicle export chain benefiting from reduced tariffs [20] Group 4: New Consumption - Chao Hong Ji anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, driven by store expansion and improved brand strength, with a projected profit range of 436 to 533 million yuan [22][23] - The approval of a new medical device by Juzi Biotechnology marks a significant milestone, indicating growth potential in the healthcare sector [23] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding new consumer trends and suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands in various sectors [24][25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the simultaneous bullish positions in both the US dollar and gold by funds suggest a strengthening of risk aversion rather than a decline in risk appetite [1] - Last week, the international spot gold price opened at $4509.80, reached a high of $4642.72, and closed at $4594.77, marking an increase of $84.51 or 1.87% [1] - The US dollar index opened at 99.10 points, closed at 99.36 points, and increased by 230 points or 0.24% [3] Group 2 - The wellxin precious metals index opened at 11531.90 points and closed at 12221.28 points, reflecting a significant increase of 708.05 points or 6.15% [3] - The latest gold-silver ratio is 50.99, which is a ten-year low, indicating that silver has transitioned from a passive to a leading role compared to gold [5] - The COMEX gold net position increased to 781.44 tons, with a notable weekly increase of 73.42 tons, marking the largest single-week increase since September of the previous year [15] Group 3 - The global largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a holding of 1085.67 tons, which is a near-term high, with an increase of 21.11 tons from the previous week [15] - The latest COMEX silver net position is 4985.89 tons, showing an increase of 433.74 tons, primarily due to short covering rather than new long positions [15] - The dollar index has shown a tendency to strengthen, with the latest net short position in the dollar futures market decreasing significantly by $88 billion, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards the dollar [18]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced significant volatility this week, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S., leading to a surge in silver prices before a subsequent decline due to easing tensions [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices initially soared past $90, reaching new milestones due to heightened geopolitical tensions and market speculation regarding U.S. interest rate cuts [1]. - A temporary easing of geopolitical tensions led to a decrease in safe-haven demand, causing silver prices to retreat from historical highs [1]. Group 2: U.S. Policy Impact - President Trump postponed new tariffs on critical mineral imports, which exacerbated the global silver inventory shortage [1]. - The announcement from Trump indicated a preference for negotiating import adjustments rather than imposing immediate tariffs, which resulted in a sharp decline in silver prices [1]. - The U.S. administration also announced a 25% tariff on certain advanced computing chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, significantly impacting the semiconductor industry, where silver is an essential material [1]. Group 3: Price Levels and Support - The historical high of $93.90 remains a critical resistance level for silver prices, with potential targets of $94.50, $95.00, and $100.00 if the upward trend continues [2]. - Key support levels for silver are identified at the January 12 high of $86.23, followed by the $85.50 region, with a drop below $85.50 exposing the $80 support level [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Precious Metals Market Weekly Report" [2] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Authors: Researcher Liao Hongbin, Assistant Researcher Xu Dingfeng [3] Group 2: Weekly Key Points Summary - Tariff situation heats up as the US will impose a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives from January 15, 2026, which may marginally increase the risk - aversion premium [5] - US PPI and core PPI in November 2025 both rose 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%, with rising energy costs being the main driver [5] - The US Department of Justice plans to conduct a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, but Trump has no plan to fire him, easing market concerns [5] - The December non - farm payrolls were less than expected, indicating a cooling US labor market, leading traders to expect three interest rate cuts this year, possibly starting before May [5] - The Middle East situation has a temporary easing, but geopolitical risks remain high due to Iran's threat to US military bases and sporadic escalation in the Russia - Ukraine front [5] - In the medium term, the bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy on dips in the long - term, while being cautious of short - term corrections [5] - The resistance level for London Gold is 4650 US dollars per ounce, and the support level is 4300 US dollars per ounce; for London Silver, the resistance level is 95 US dollars per ounce, and the support level is 70 US dollars per ounce [5] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market - The precious metals market continued to be strong this week, with a continuous short - squeeze in the silver market [6] - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract 2604 closed at 22,483 yuan per kilogram, up 20.03% for the week; the Shanghai Gold main contract 2604 closed at 1,032.32 yuan per gram, up 2.57% for the week [10] - This week, the net position of foreign gold ETFs increased, while that of silver decreased. As of January 15, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,074.80 tons, up 0.72% month - on - month; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,062 tons, down 0.90% month - on - month [11][15] - As of January 6, 2025 (the latest), both COMEX gold and silver net long positions decreased. The COMEX gold net position was 227,632 contracts, down 1.50% month - on - month; the COMEX silver net position was 29,271 contracts, down 2.63% month - on - month [16][20] - This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened. As of January 15, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 6.74 yuan per gram, with a basis rate of - 0.65%; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 210 yuan per kilogram, with a basis rate of - 0.93% [21][23] - This week, the gold and silver inventories in domestic and foreign exchanges decreased. As of January 15, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36,132,901.14 ounces, down 0.70% month - on - month; the SHFE gold inventory was 97,653 kilograms, down 0.05% month - on - month; the COMEX silver inventory was 435,671,453 ounces, down 3.0% month - on - month; the SHFE silver inventory was 620,262 kilograms, down 10.30% month - on - month [24][28] Group 4: Silver Industry Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of silver and silver ore sand increased. The import volume of Chinese silver was 263,505.88 kilograms, up 9.90% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 180,915,984 kilograms, up 21.23% month - on - month [30][34] - Due to the increasing demand for silver in the semiconductor industry, the production of integrated circuits has been rising, and the year - on - year growth rate has stabilized. As of November 2025, the monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,390,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.6% [36][40] Group 5: Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total demand for silver was 1,164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [42][44] - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply and demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver, while the investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. As of the end of 2024, the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month. The World Silver Institute predicted that the global total silver supply in 2025 would increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces; the global total silver demand would decrease by 4% year - on - year to about 1,120 million ounces; the supply - demand gap in 2025 was expected to narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a decrease of about 53% month - on - month [48][50] Group 6: Gold Supply and Demand - The investment demand for gold ETFs has increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continue to buy gold [52] Group 7: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound from the low level within the oscillation range [56] - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility decreased [61] - This week, the US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly [65] - In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons of gold respectively [69]

Core Insights - The total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reached 1,074.8 tons as of January 15, 2026, reflecting an increase of 0.57 tons from the previous trading day [5] - The spot gold price experienced fluctuations, dropping to a low of $4,581.26 per ounce before closing at $4,615.73, down $10.68 or 0.23% [5] - The significant drop in gold and silver prices was attributed to profit-taking after previous record highs, alongside a temporary halt by the U.S. on new tariffs for key mineral imports [5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions easing contributed to the adjustment in gold and silver prices, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Despite the recent price drop, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [5] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may continue to support gold's safe-haven demand [6] Group 2: Investment Trends - In 2025, gold prices set a record 53 times, leading to unprecedented inflows into gold ETFs, totaling $89 billion, with assets under management (AUM) reaching $559 billion and total holdings climbing to a historic peak of 4,025 tons [6] - The record performance was driven by three main factors: increased demand for safe-haven assets due to global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, trend-following buying due to rising gold prices, and reduced opportunity costs from declining U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar [6] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The strong market momentum continued into the end of the year, with global gold ETFs seeing inflows for seven consecutive months, amounting to approximately $10 billion, primarily driven by North America [7] - The technical outlook for gold remains bullish, with the 50-day moving average trending upwards and the relative strength index (RSI) indicating positive momentum without reaching overbought levels [7] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4,643 and $4,660, while initial support is at $4,535 and further at $4,490 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that strong U.S. economic data has led to a rise in the U.S. dollar index, resulting in a decline in gold and silver prices for the second consecutive trading day [1][2] - Gold prices fell by 0.53% to $4591.32 per ounce, while silver prices saw a significant drop of 3% to $89.48 per ounce during the trading session [1] - The latest data shows that initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, which boosted confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of the U.S. dollar, which reached a six-week high of 99.49, has put pressure on gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars [1] - A reduction in geopolitical tensions, particularly comments from President Trump regarding Iran's handling of protests, has diminished the safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Despite recent declines, gold is expected to achieve a cumulative increase of nearly 2% for the week, while silver is projected to have a cumulative increase of approximately 13% for the same period [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.1780%, while the 2-year yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy, closed at 3.5750% [1][5] - Gold prices experienced a decline, closing down 0.24% at $4615.34 per ounce, influenced by Netanyahu's communication with Trump, which reduced gold's safe-haven demand [1][5] - Silver also fell, closing down 0.82% at $92.42 per ounce [1][5] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - WTI crude oil prices fell by 3.08%, closing at $59.16 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped by 2.48%, closing at $63.76 per barrel [1][5] - The potential avoidance of military action against Iran by Trump interrupted the continuous rise in international oil prices [1][5] Group 3: Gold Price Movements - Gold opened at $4631.1 per ounce, reached a high of $4633, and then fell to a low of $4579.5 before closing at $4615.6, forming a hammer candlestick pattern [6] - The current gold market is characterized by fluctuations, remaining above support levels, with a focus on potential stabilization [6] Group 4: Oil Price Movements - The U.S. crude oil market opened at $61.03 per barrel, peaked at $61.14, and then fell to a low of $58.84, closing at $59.28, forming a large bearish candlestick [7] - The oil market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, with resistance levels not being breached, indicating a risk of further declines [7] Group 5: Nasdaq Index Insights - The Nasdaq index opened at $25433.26, dropped to a low of $25398.73, peaked at $25791.89, and closed at $25540.77, forming an inverted hammer pattern [3][7] - The index's performance suggests strong resistance at higher levels, with potential for a second stabilization [3][7]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices recently broke through the $91.00 per ounce mark, currently trading at $90.94 per ounce, down 1.53% for the day. COMEX silver futures are reported at $90.88 per ounce, down 1.59% [1] - On Thursday, silver prices experienced a significant drop of 7.3%, but managed to recover most of the losses during the trading session before declining again, currently down over 5% [1] - President Trump has decided not to impose tariffs on key mineral imports, including silver and platinum, opting for bilateral negotiations instead. He has proposed the idea of setting price floors [1] - Concerns over potential tariffs have led to increased accumulation of metals, including silver, in U.S. warehouses. Currently, approximately 434 million ounces of silver are held in warehouses related to futures trading on the New York Commodity Exchange, an increase of about 100 million ounces compared to a year ago when trade disruptions due to tariffs intensified [1] - Despite the potential for inventory to alleviate other tensions, the outflow of silver from the U.S. may face obstacles as it remains on Trump's critical mineral list. The medium-term outlook for silver remains positive, supported by supply shortages, industrial consumption, and spillover demand from gold [1] - However, the recent volatility in prices necessitates a cautious approach in the short term [1] Market Trends - The U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased last week, boosting the dollar index to a multi-week high, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies [3] - Safe-haven demand for gold has diminished as President Trump indicated that Iran's actions to suppress protests seem to be easing, suggesting a potential wait-and-see approach [3] - The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates during the January meeting, with at least two rate cuts anticipated within the year, providing long-term support for gold prices [3] - Other precious metals showed mixed performance: spot silver slightly retreated after reaching a historical high of $93.57, platinum declined, while palladium remained stable [3] - On January 15, the Senate passed a package of three spending bills, marking the completion of the first funding measures since the government shutdown, which will support multiple key departments until the end of the current fiscal year [3] Technical Analysis - The current trend for silver is upward, suggesting a strategy of supporting long positions and pressure point short positions [6] - Technical charts indicate a support level around $87.70 for silver [6] - The long-term MACD chart shows a bullish trend with upward crossing of moving averages, although market activity has decreased, necessitating cautious trading and consideration of low-position long trades [6] Investment Strategy - Suggested layout strategy includes entering long positions near $87.70 with a stop loss at $87.30 and a take profit target in the $92.00 to $93.90 range [6]

Group 1 - Gold prices are under pressure, currently reported at $4595.27 per ounce, down 0.44%, influenced by a stronger US dollar and reduced geopolitical tensions [1] - The unexpected decline in US initial jobless claims to 198,000, the lowest since November, has provided upward momentum for the dollar, impacting gold negatively [1] - Geopolitical tensions have eased, particularly regarding Iran, which has reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - President Trump is delaying decisions on actions against Iran, allowing for more time for Israel to prepare for potential retaliation, which may affect market sentiment [2] - The Senate has passed a package of spending bills, reducing political uncertainty and slightly lowering safe-haven demand for gold [2] - Recent trading patterns in the gold market indicate a potential for upward movement, with specific price levels identified for buying opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by the Trump administration to delay tariffs on key minerals, including silver and platinum, has led to a significant pullback in silver prices from record highs, with a drop of over 7% observed. This decision alleviates market concerns regarding comprehensive tariff measures, which had previously driven silver inventories to remain in U.S. warehouses, supporting a global short squeeze expected in 2025 [1][3][8]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Silver prices experienced a sharp decline after reaching a record high, with a drop of nearly 7.3% during trading, falling below $86.40 [4]. - Other metals, including gold, copper, and tin, also saw declines following silver's drop, with gold futures falling to $4584, a decrease of 1.1% [7]. - The recent volatility in silver prices is attributed to a combination of profit-taking by investors and the impact of the tariff delay, which has led to a reassessment of recent price pressures [11]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Silver Prices - The Trump administration's decision to pause tariffs is seen as a shift towards more targeted negotiations, which has eased concerns about potential supply disruptions in the silver market [8]. - Analysts highlight that the supply gap, industrial consumption, and spillover demand from gold will continue to support silver prices in the medium term, despite the need for caution in the short term due to rapid price movements [11]. - The strong performance of silver last year, with a nearly 150% increase, has attracted investor interest, particularly as industrial demand, especially from the solar sector, remains robust [9].