节后第一个交易日（10月9日），有色金属板块断层领涨两市，有色龙头ETF（159876）跳空大涨，场 内价格飙涨5.7%，刷新上市以来的高点。截至发稿，有色龙头ETF（159876）获资金实时净申购3420万 份。成份股方面，江西铜业、白银有色、四川黄金涨停，西部超导涨超16%，铜陵有色、云南铜业、山 东黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金等个股大幅跟涨。 天风证券认为，以下三点将支撑贵金属走势：一是避险需求。经济不确定性包括美股估值偏高、美联储 独立性危机、美国和欧洲的财政债务压力、欧美经济增速回升困难等多重因素。政策环境不确定性包括 贸易壁垒、中东局势等地缘风险；二是央行购金仍将发挥正面支撑作用。虽然央行购金速度最快的时期 已过，但各经济体央行出于储备多元化和降低对美元依赖的考虑，仍将保持稳定的购金需求，为黄金价 格提供底部支撑；三是通胀预期因素值得关注。目前看，通胀预期不是本轮行情的主因。但如果小概率 情形下美国发生持久性高通胀，那么黄金对冲通胀的价值将进一步凸显，或推动金价进入新的上行通 道。 不同的有色金属，景气度、节奏与驱动点并不一致，分化在所难免，如果看好有色金属板块，一个比较 轻松的思路是通过全覆盖来更好 ...

值得一提的是，10月8日，伦敦现货黄金价格首次站上4000美元整数关口，再创历史新高，延续破纪录 涨势。高盛将2026年12月黄金价格预测上调至每盎司4900美元（此前预测为4300美元）。 国庆假期期间，有色金属板块无疑成为了焦点中的焦点，万众期待之下，节后第一个交易日（10月9 日）有色金属板块断层领涨两市，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）跳空大涨，场内价 格飙涨5.39%，刷新上市以来的高点！截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购2460万份！ 成份股方面，江西铜业、白银有色、四川黄金涨停！西部超导涨超16%，铜陵有色、云南铜业、山东黄 金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金等个股大幅跟涨！ 上交所数据显示，上一交易日（9月30日），有色龙头ETF（159876）单日吸金3463万元，反映资金看 好板块后市，积极进场抢筹！值得一提的是，截至9月30日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模3.47亿 元，再创历史新高！ 消息面上，据当地时间10月8日，美联储最新发布的9月议息会议纪要，在参加会议的19位官员中，略多 于一半的人预计今年还将至少再降息两次。 业内人士表示，美联储降息周期是一个关键的"慢变量 ...

意见领袖 | 薛洪言 2025年10月7日，COMEX黄金价格首次站上4000美元/盎司整数关口，再创历史新高。回顾年内走势， 金价自年初2758美元/盎司起步，在连续上涨四个月后，经历了为期三个月的小幅调整；8月市场重启升 势，9月单月涨幅达10.57%，创下本轮行情以来的最大月度涨幅；进入10月后，金价延续涨势并突破 4000美元/盎司关键关口，截至目前年内累计涨幅已超47%。 就8月启动的本轮上涨行情看，美联储货币政策转向构成了最直接的推动因素——8月美国非农就业仅新 增2.2万人（远低于预期的7.5万人），失业率升至4.3%，制造业PMI连续6个月萎缩，这一系列数据迫使 美联储在9月启动年内首次降息，点阵图更预示年内或累计降息75个基点。而10月1日美国联邦政府停摆 事件进一步加剧了市场恐慌，市场担忧停摆可能导致经济数据延迟发布，叠加凯雷集团估算9月非农就 业新增仅1.7万人（远低于预期的5.4万人），进一步强化了美联储10月降息的预期，对金价形成有力支 撑。 与此同时，地缘政治风险的多点爆发持续推升全球避险需求。2025年9月9日，以色列对卡塔尔多哈发动 精准打击，将冲突延伸至这一能源枢纽，进一步加 ...

Core Viewpoint - During the National Day holiday, gold prices surged due to multiple factors including the U.S. government shutdown, disappointing non-farm payroll data, and escalating trade policies, with both spot and futures gold prices reaching a historic high of $4,000 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown delayed the highly anticipated non-farm payroll data release, leading to a decrease in September ADP employment numbers by 32,000, contrary to the expected increase of 51,000 [1] - Following the release of the ADP employment data, traders increased their bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [1] - The probability of cumulative rate cuts by December shows a 9.8% chance for 25 basis points, 89.3% for 50 basis points, and 0.9% for 75 basis points [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Investors are flocking to the gold market seeking refuge amid heightened global economic and geopolitical risks, as noted by Huishang Futures [1] - Concerns have arisen regarding whether the AI-driven market surge has reached an "overly prosperous" level, particularly following Oracle's cloud business profit margin report [1] - The political crisis in France and leadership changes in Japan have intensified risk aversion globally, reinforcing gold's status as a safe haven [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - International gold prices have recently reached a historic high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, with a peak at $4,014.60 per ounce, reflecting a 50% increase this year, making gold one of the best-performing major assets globally [1][3] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to rising global risk aversion and declining confidence in the US dollar, driven by factors such as US government shutdowns, economic uncertainties in various countries, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts [3][4] - Analysts suggest that investors should allocate approximately 15% of their assets to gold, as it is viewed as a superior asset during downturns in other investment areas [1][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900, citing strong demand from central banks and private sector diversification [2] - Central banks are expected to purchase 80 tons and 70 tons of gold annually over the next two years, with emerging market central banks increasing their gold reserves to reduce reliance on the US dollar [2][5] - The World Gold Council reported a net increase of 15 tons in gold reserves by central banks in August, and gold ETF holdings rose by 3.6 million ounces, marking a 17% increase year-to-date [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for continued strength in gold prices exists if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates further, the US dollar remains weak, and geopolitical tensions persist [4][5] - However, some analysts caution that the market may need to prepare for short-term adjustments, with expectations of gold prices fluctuating between $3,800 and $4,100 per ounce for the remainder of the year [4] - Long-term projections remain bullish, with UBS forecasting gold prices to reach $4,200 and Citigroup suggesting a potential challenge of the $5,000 mark if the Fed continues to lower rates in 2026 [5]

一场席卷全球的避险浪潮，正在将贵金属市场推向"沸腾"的顶点。 在全球多重风险因素叠加下，黄金价格突破每盎司4000美元的历史性关口，年内涨幅已达54%。 而市场的"沸腾"并不仅限于黄金。白银涨势更为迅猛，年内涨幅超67%跑赢黄金，价格逼近50美元。 与此同时，钯金价格周三飙升近10%，涨至1482美元以上，创下自2023年5月以来的最大单日涨幅。 贵金属一涨势的背后，是地缘政治紧张、对美元强度的担忧、美联储独立性问题、持续的通胀压力以及欧洲经济增长乏力等一系列风险因素的叠 加。分析师认为，目前几乎看不到能阻止这轮涨势的因素，并预测此轮金属牛市可能延续至2026年。 黄金：避险情绪与央行购金共振 黄金此轮牛市的核心驱动力，是全球范围内弥漫的避险需求。 市场普遍认为，从特朗普政府的贸易关税政策到俄乌冲突，再到对通胀的担忧，几乎所有传统的黄金驱动因素都在同时发挥作用。法国巴黎银行 分析师David Wilson表示： 如果你是一名投资者，你会把钱放在哪里？如果你担心美国经济和债务前景，你还会想买传统的避险资产美国国债吗？答案是否定 的。 除了个人投资者的避险需求，各国央行的持续买入也为金价提供了坚实支撑。根据咨询公 ...

I was getting ready to write my weekly “Front Burner” feature today and I was bandying about ideas for a topic. I was surely going to write about precious metals as gold (GCZ25) today hit a record high of $4,072.00 an ounce basis December Comex futures. Silver (SIZ25) today hit an all-time high of $49.55 an ounce in December Comex futures. www.barchart.com www.barchart.com Then, a Reuters metals reporter called me to ask about what’s driving the major bull runs in gold and silver. I was explaining to hi ...

Core Insights - International gold prices reached a historic high during China's "Double Festival" period, with COMEX gold futures hitting $4061.2 per ounce, driven by heightened risk aversion in overseas markets due to the U.S. government shutdown and suspension of economic data releases [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures for December closed at $4060 per ounce, while London spot gold prices remained above $4000 per ounce during the "Double Festival" [1] - COMEX silver prices also reached a nearly 13-year high, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven assets amid inflation and economic risk concerns [2] Group 2: Investment Trends - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold futures for the main contract reached a high of 880 yuan per gram, marking the highest point since its listing, with significant capital inflow of nearly 200 billion yuan on that day [2] - Gold-themed funds demonstrated strong capital attraction, with a total scale of 246.9 billion yuan as of October 8, an increase of nearly 130 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [3] Group 3: Fund Performance - Several gold-themed funds reported substantial growth, with some individual products, like the Huaan Gold ETF, increasing to nearly 60 billion yuan, reflecting a net value growth rate exceeding 80% this year [3] - The overall performance of gold-themed funds is attributed to macroeconomic conditions, risk aversion, and adjustments in monetary policy expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have recently reached a historic high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On December 7, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange hit a record high of $4,014.60 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of approximately 50% this year [3]. - Analysts suggest that the prevailing "fear of missing out" sentiment among investors is stronger than profit-taking, contributing to the continued upward pressure on gold prices despite signs of being overbought [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The rise in gold prices reflects a dual signal of increased global risk aversion and declining confidence in the U.S. dollar [4]. - Factors such as the U.S. government shutdown, political instability in France, economic concerns in Japan, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts have collectively heightened the market's demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and indications of continued loose monetary policy have diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, further supporting gold prices [6]. - Central banks worldwide have been actively purchasing gold, with a reported net increase of 15 tons in August, and gold ETF holdings rising by 3.6 million ounces, reaching the highest level since September 2022 [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Looking ahead, if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and geopolitical tensions persist, gold prices may continue to strengthen [8]. - However, some analysts caution that the market should be wary of potential short-term corrections, with expectations of gold prices fluctuating between $3,800 and $4,100 per ounce for the remainder of the year [8]. - Long-term forecasts remain bullish, with predictions of gold prices reaching $4,200 and potentially challenging the $5,000 mark by 2026, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [8].

Core Viewpoint - The gold sector stocks have seen significant increases, with GoldMining (GLDG.US) rising over 11% and other companies like Coeur Mining (CDE.US) and Harmony Gold (HMY.US) also experiencing gains, as spot gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time [1] Group 1: Market Performance - GoldMining (GLDG.US) surged over 11% while Coeur Mining (CDE.US) and Gold Fields (GFI.US) rose nearly 3% each, and Harmony Gold (HMY.US) increased by over 2.8% [1] - Spot gold prices have increased by over 50% this year amid concerns over global trade prospects, Federal Reserve independence, and U.S. fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - The urgency for gold price increases has intensified as investors seek to hedge against potential market shocks following the U.S. government funding impasse [1] - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a monetary easing cycle has provided support for gold, which does not yield interest [1] Group 3: ETF Inflows - There has been a significant influx of capital into gold-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with physically-backed ETFs recording the largest monthly inflow in over three years in September [1]