1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's volatility is rising, while its medium - term upward trend remains intact. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3,120 - $3,500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with a medium - to - low position [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the demand for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market in gold. Trump's reforms leading to economic weakness and central bank interest rate cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and P/E ratio mean increased volatility. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of US economic growth and inflation on Fed policy. It is expected that London gold will continue to trade in a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 贵金属行情及展望 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Due to Trump's threat to sue Fed Chairman Powell and US July CPI being lower than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation cooled, pushing the US dollar index down to around 98 and London gold rebounding above $3,350 per ounce. The strong rise of the Chinese stock market made silver with higher industrial attributes relatively stronger. The US government's downplaying of the Russia - US summit reduced the pressure on the precious metal market from the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Trump's new policies boosted gold's safe - haven demand. London gold may trade in a wide range and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with a medium - to - low position [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, Fed new governor nomination, and deteriorating US job market increased the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and in July, silver prices fluctuated greatly due to anti - involution policy expectations. The London gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly after falling to 86. It is judged that the long - term bull market of gold will be supported by the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the medium - term bull market will be supported by Trump's reforms and interest rate cut expectations. However, high prices also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue trading in a range. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 贵金属市场相关图表 - The report provides six charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7]. 3.3 主要宏观事件/数据 - The US Treasury Secretary said that US trade officials will meet with Chinese officials in the next two to three months. There are still several major trade agreements to be completed, but India is being difficult in negotiations. If a lower - court case goes to the Supreme Court, it will be difficult for the court to rule against the Trump administration [8]. - US July inflation was moderate, increasing investors' bets on a September Fed interest rate cut. July CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year (lower than expected). Core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month (the largest increase since January) and 3.1% year - on - year (higher than June) [8]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that the limited impact of tariffs on inflation should be seen as a sign of proper monetary policy calibration, not an opportunity for interest rate cuts. Trump is considering suing Fed Chairman Powell for mismanagement of the Fed's renovation project [9]. - The White House downplayed expectations of a quick Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement from the Trump - Putin summit. European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Trump, and US Vice - President Vance will participate in a high - level video conference. Putin informed North Korean leader Kim Jong - un about the upcoming meeting with Trump [9].

Group 1 - HSBC analysts have raised their silver price forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, citing strong gold prices and safe-haven demand due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] - The new average silver price forecast for 2025 is $35.14 per ounce, up from $30.28; for 2026, it is $33.96, up from $26.95; and for 2027, it is $31.79, up from $28.30 [1] - Despite a 31% increase in silver prices this year, HSBC notes that this rise is more related to the correlation between silver and gold rather than intrinsic fundamentals [1] Group 2 - HSBC predicts that silver mine production will continue to grow at a moderate pace, with supply-demand models forecasting a silver deficit of 206 million ounces in 2025, 126 million ounces in 2026, and 167 million ounces in 2024 [1] - The weakening US dollar is seen as beneficial for silver prices, while ongoing discussions about Federal Reserve rate cuts and central bank policies may impact future price trends [1] Group 3 - On Tuesday, gold futures prices slightly declined while silver futures prices saw a slight increase as investors reacted to the latest US economic data [2] - The US consumer price index rose 2.7% year-on-year in July, supporting expectations for a rate cut in September [2] - Optimism surrounding the upcoming summit between President Trump and President Putin regarding the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has limited the upward momentum in prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the documents. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, the risk - aversion demand declines; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, the employment weakens, the expectation of interest rate cuts rebounds, and the risk of rising inflation still exists [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and weak in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. Summary by Directory Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai Gold futures closed down 1.12%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver futures closed down 0.62% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to start, the risk - aversion demand declines; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, the employment weakens, the expectation of interest rate cuts rebounds, and the risk of rising inflation still exists [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - aversion**: White House officials said that Trump had signed an executive order to extend the US - China tariff truce for another 90 days. Trump also said that gold would not face tariffs [1]. - **Monetary**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls increase in the previous two months was significantly revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market situation, increasing the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expected probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September soared from about 40% before the non - farm payrolls report to over 80%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The decline of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance [1]. - **Commodity**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [1]. - **Data Summary**: Various gold - related data are provided, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, trading volume, inventory, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETF data [1]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor of the silver price [5]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: Various silver - related data are provided, including international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, trading volume, inventory, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETF data [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.54%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, the US dollar index is 98.49, and the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.58 [8]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, CPI month - on - month is 0.30%, core CPI year - on - year is 2.90%, core CPI month - on - month is 0.30%, PCE price index year - on - year is 2.58%, core PCE price index year - on - year is 2.79%, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in the US is 4.50%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation is 3.40 [10]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 3.00%, the unemployment rate is 4.20%, the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 730,000, the labor participation rate is 62.70%, the average hourly wage growth rate is 3.90%, etc. [10]. - **Other Data**: It also includes data on the US real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, economic surveys, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, risk - aversion and commodity - related indicators [10][11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectation The probability of different interest rate ranges at each Fed meeting from September 2025 to December 2026 is provided [12].

今日周二(8月12日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于37.85一线上方，今日开盘于37.60美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银 暂报37.94美元/盎司，上涨0.90%，最高触及37.95美元/盎司，最低下探37.47美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线 偏向看涨走势。 风险情绪偏好回升削弱避险需求，美国总统签署行政令，将与亚洲大国的关税暂停延长三个月，并在社交媒体上表示 黄金不在关税范围内。同时，市场对本周五举行的美俄会晤寄予厚望，认为有机会推动俄乌冲突降温，这令传统避险 资产承压。 短期内，交易员普遍在美国CPI公布前保持观望，该数据将直接影响美联储政策预期，从而主导美元与白银的短期方 向。 本周还将迎来美国PPI、零售销售和密歇根消费者信心指数，以及多位美联储官员讲话，这些都可能为银价带来额外波 动。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 国际白银走势符合预期，在上周38.5见顶看回落空间至37.5，周一回落刚好实现37.5目标点，目前走势在多次试探37.5 不破后白银也形成了反弹，可见37.5的支撑效果。今天就关注CPI数据影响，在目前多头趋势下，不破37.5可继续看 涨，上方有38.5，39.5，破位37.5可能会 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have experienced significant volatility, with a notable drop of 1.6% following President Trump's announcement that there will be no tariffs on imported gold [1] - The international gold price saw a decline of over 2%, marking the largest drop in nearly three months, as investors await upcoming inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [1] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has weakened due to the potential for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to increased market caution [1] Group 2 - After a significant bearish movement, indicators for gold have entered an oversold state, suggesting that a strong rebound is possible without further major declines [2] - The market is exhibiting caution ahead of the upcoming U.S.-Russia meeting, with oil prices also showing a consolidation pattern after previous declines [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international trade - currency system restructuring and reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic conditions will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price and P/E ratio mean increased volatility. In the short - term, London gold will continue to move in a range waiting for the next upward breakthrough. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage when silver's upward momentum fades [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - More Fed officials worry about the US job market and support rate cuts, which weakens the US dollar and supports precious metal prices. But the potential cooling of the Russia - Ukraine war and the clarification of no import tariffs on gold and silver weaken the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold pulled back to around $3360 per ounce overnight, while silver was slightly stronger due to China's anti - involution policy expectations. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies. London gold may fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions. This week, pay attention to the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and US fiscal expansion reduce gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. Speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum in June, and silver prices fluctuated greatly in July. The gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly after falling to 86. The long - term bull market of gold is supported by international trade and currency system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's policies and economic conditions. Gold's volatility has increased, and in the third quarter, pay attention to the impact of US economic and inflation conditions on Fed policies. It is expected that London gold will continue to move in a range in the short - term. Long - minded investors can participate with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold T+D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Commerce Department allows Nvidia to export H20 chips to China, and Nvidia and AMD will pay 15% of their Chinese chip sales revenue to the US government [18]. - Trump will meet Putin on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war, and the White House is considering inviting Zelensky. European leaders welcome the meeting but emphasize the need to pressure Moscow [18]. - Many Fed officials are worried about the labor market and suggest rate cuts in September. However, some officials think it's too early to commit to rate cuts due to upcoming key data and expected inflation rise [19]. - The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but four of the nine policymakers opposed it, indicating that consecutive rate cuts may be near the end [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, and the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to begin, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. There will still be an inflation test in the middle of the month. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.81%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.72% [2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes, upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks leading to reduced risk - aversion demand; increased US stagflation risk, weakened employment, and rebounding interest - rate cut expectations; inflation test in the middle of the month [2]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: US President Trump said on social media on Friday that he will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls in the previous two months were revised down by 258,000, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. The market's expected probability of a Fed rate cut in September has soared from about 40% before the non - farm data to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The decline of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has encountered resistance [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2][3]. - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: The net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, a decrease of 762 million US dollars compared with the previous week. M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [9]. - **Other Key Data**: Data on ten - year US Treasury real yields, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are provided, showing different changes [9][10][11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserve and Related Ratios**: Data on central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world, as well as ratios such as gold/foreign exchange reserves and IMF foreign exchange reserve proportions are provided, showing different changes [11][12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of different Fed interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 is provided [13].

【黄金期货最新行情】 上周五，美国总统特朗普宣布，他将于8月15日在阿拉斯加会见俄罗斯总统普京，商讨结束俄乌冲突的 相关事宜。这一消息令市场对地缘政治风险的担忧有所缓解。 近期美国就业数据表现不及预期，市场对美联储9月降息的预期显著升温。根据市场定价，美联储在9月 放宽货币政策的概率高达90%，并且预计到2025年底还将至少再降息一次。 与此同时，中美贸易谈判的进展也为市场增添了不确定性。特朗普要求华盛顿与北京在8月12日之前达 成协议，这一最后期限的临近让投资者保持高度警惕。 【机构观点】 | 8月11日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 779.48 | -0.81% | 278074 | 211644 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，8月11日上海黄金现货价格报价778.50元/克，相较于期货主力价格（779.48元/克）贴水0.98 元/克。 新世纪期货：在高利率环境和全球化重构的大背景下，黄金的定价机制正在由传统的以实际利率为核心 向以央行购金 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3408.71 due to increased safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties and weak U.S. employment data [2][3] - On August 7, gold prices surged by $26.05, or 0.77%, closing at $3395.30 per ounce, as market participants anticipated a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently experiencing a wide trading range between $3400 and $3370, with ongoing volatility influenced by various news events, including U.S. tariffs and employment data [3][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to conflicting news, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, providing bullish support [3] - The market is expected to continue its "whipsaw" behavior, with potential for a downward trend following a brief upward movement [4][6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling during price rebounds, with key resistance levels identified at $3408-$3418 and support levels at $3370-$3360 [6] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have shown significant declines, with Brent crude falling to $66.40 per barrel and WTI crude to $63.82 per barrel, marking a weekly drop of over 4% and 5% respectively [7] - The downward pressure on oil prices is primarily due to concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and shifts in OPEC+ policies [7][8] - The technical outlook for oil indicates a bearish trend, with six consecutive days of declining prices and MACD indicators suggesting strengthening bearish momentum [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3408.71 due to increased safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties and weak U.S. employment data [2][3] - On August 7, gold prices surged by $26.05, or 0.77%, closing at $3395.30 per ounce, as market participants anticipated a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently experiencing a wide trading range between $3400 and $3370, with ongoing volatility influenced by various news events, including U.S. tariffs and employment data [3][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to a mix of fundamental factors, including China's central bank's increase in gold reserves and geopolitical tensions involving U.S. tariffs [3] - The technical outlook suggests that if gold breaks below the support level of $3375-$3370, it may indicate a bearish trend, while a breakout above $3409 could lead to further gains [6] - The current trading strategy recommends focusing on short positions near $3400, with key resistance levels identified at $3408-$3418 and support levels at $3370-$3360 [6][8] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have shown significant declines, with Brent crude falling to $66.40 per barrel and WTI crude to $63.82 per barrel, marking a weekly drop of over 4% and 5% respectively [7] - The downward trend in oil prices is primarily driven by concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and shifting OPEC+ policies [7] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for oil, with six consecutive days of declining prices and MACD indicators suggesting strengthening bearish momentum [8]