昨晚，一家公司的股东们可能彻夜难眠。如果你持有它的股票，此刻你的资产可能只剩下不到一天前的零头。这不是虚构的故事，是2025年12月12日周五， 美股市场上真实发生的一幕。 一家上市仅仅两个多月，被分析师认为"基本面良好"、"正在扩张"、"没有利空"的鸡煲火锅连锁店，在毫无征兆的情况下，股价上演了自由落体。盘中一度 跌去近90%，收盘时定格在暴跌82.47%。它的股价从15.39美元，被硬生生砸到了2.65美元。这意味着，上市以来的所有涨幅，在几个小时内灰飞烟灭。 让人匪夷所思的，恰恰是文章里提到的那句话："公司没有利空，相反还有利好。"一家业务在扩张、业绩向好的公司，为何会遭遇如此决绝的抛售？这巨大 的反差，撕开了市场温情面纱下冰冷而残酷的另一面。 这场屠杀始于一个看似温和的开场。周五开盘，这只股票随着美股大盘低开。这没什么特别的，毕竟它过去一个月从4.5美元涨到15美元以上，积累了超过 三倍的涨幅，低开调整在许多人看来合情合理。一些投资者可能还在琢磨，这是不是又一个上车的机会。 最初的下跌缓慢而折磨。股价从下跌2%，滑落到5%，再到7%。这像温水中逐渐升高的温度，让持有者感到不适，但还不至于立刻跳出去。到 ...

当地时间12月11日，美股市场呈现鲜明分化走势，道指与标普500指数携手刷新历史纪录，而科技股则 因甲骨文业绩不及预期引发的"AI泡沫担忧"而承压回调。 道指大涨646.26点，涨幅1.34%，报48704.01点，盘中与收盘均创历史新高；标普500指数微涨0.21%， 收于6900.99点，连续两日刷新收盘纪录；纳斯达克综合指数则下跌0.25%，报23593.86点，科技板块成 为主要拖累。 | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 年初至今 | | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 48704.01 646.26 1.34% 14.48% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23593.86 c -60.30 -0.25% 22.18% | | 标普500 | 6901.00 14.32 0.21% 17.33% | 甲骨文暴跌10.83%，科技巨头集体承压 市场焦点迅速集中在甲骨文的财报表现上。该AI投资风向标公司股价一度暴跌16%，最终收跌10.83%， 市值蒸发689亿美元（约合人民币4863亿元）。甲骨文云业务收入不及预期，同时宣布2026年资本支出 指引大幅上调150亿美元至500亿美元，引发投资者 ...

格隆汇12月11日｜甲骨文(ORCL.US)第二财季财报未能缓解投资者对其短期前景的担忧，KeyBanc分析 师因此将目标价从350美元下调至300美元。尽管公司剩余履约义务（ RPO）总额突破5000亿美元，但 分析师指出："投资者现在要的是执行力，而不是未来的承诺。"甲骨文云业务的收入和毛利率均未达预 期，进一步加剧了市场对其能否有效兑现庞大订单积压的疑虑。"公司未能实现不久前自己设定的预 期，这让人对其兑现未来承诺的能力产生质疑，"分析师表示。 ...

周三，三大指数收涨。在美联储决定今年再次降息后，交易员押注明年将有更多宽松政策出台。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨497.46点，涨幅为1.05%，报48057.75点；纳指涨77.67点，涨幅为0.33%，报 23654.16点；标普500指数涨46.22点，涨幅为0.68%，报6886.73点。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌30.82点，跌幅0.13%，报24141.47点；英国富时100指数涨11.84点，涨幅 0.12%，报9653.85点；法国CAC40指数跌29.82点，跌幅0.37%，报8022.69点；欧洲斯托克50指数跌9.97 点，跌幅0.17%，报5708.35点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨28.85点，涨幅0.17%，报16763.35点；意大利富时 MIB指数跌116.50点，跌幅0.27%，报43458.00点。 【亚太股市】日经225指数跌0.1%，韩国KOSPI指数跌0.21%，印度BSE SENSEX跌0.32%，印尼综合指 数涨0.51%。 【外汇】衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.43%，在汇市尾市收于98.789。截至纽约汇市 尾市，1欧元兑换1.1678美元，高于 ...

资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 2025 年 12 月 11 日星期四 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 美联储 FOMC 如期降息 25 个基点 美国众议院投票通过国防授权法案 美国 11 月预算赤字为 1730 亿美元 欧洲央行管委预言：世界或将从"美元独大"迈入"多极货币" IDC：预测 2026 年全球折叠手机市场爆发 同比增幅有望达 30% IMF 上调今年中国经济增速至 5% 国家统计局：11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7％，PPI 同比下降 2.2% 10 月国内市场手机出货量 3226.7 万部 同比增长 8.7% 甲骨文云业务销售逊于预期 盘后跌超 10% 阿里千问月活突破 3000 万 开放 AI PPT 等四项新功能 2 年期美债收益率跌 7.24 个基点报 3.538% 5 年期美债收益率跌 5.59 个基点报 3.731% 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.51 个基点报 4.149% 纳斯达克综合指数 （日） 道琼斯工业平均指数（日） 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,0 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周三，三大指数收涨。在美联储决定今年再次降息后，交易员押注明年将有更多宽 松政策出台。 【美股】截至收盘，道指涨497.46点，涨幅为1.05%，报48057.75点；纳指涨77.67点，涨幅为0.33%，报 23654.16点；标普500指数涨46.22点，涨幅为0.68%，报6886.73点。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌30.82点，跌幅0.13%，报24141.47点；英国富时100指数涨11.84点，涨幅 0.12%，报9653.85点；法国CAC40指数跌29.82点，跌幅0.37%，报8022.69点；欧洲斯托克50指数跌9.97 点，跌幅0.17%，报5708.35点；西班牙IBEX35指数涨28.85点，涨幅0.17%，报16763.35点；意大利富时 MIB指数跌116.50点，跌幅0.27%，报43458.00点。 【亚太股市】日经225指数跌0.1%，韩国KOSPI指数跌0.21%，印度BSE SENSEX跌0.32%，印尼综合指 数涨0.51%。 【外汇】衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.43%，在汇市尾市收于98.789。截至纽约汇市 尾市，1欧元兑换 ...

Core Insights - Oracle's AI infrastructure project, with a total revenue of $60 billion over six years, is expected to achieve a gross margin of 35% [3][4] - The company reported remaining performance obligations (RPO) exceeding $500 billion and anticipates revenue reaching $225 billion by fiscal year 2030 [4] - Following the disclosure of profitability expectations for the AI infrastructure business, Oracle's stock rose over 3%, peaking at more than 5% during trading [5] Financial Performance - Oracle's cloud business reported strong growth, with total revenue of $7.2 billion for the first fiscal quarter, a year-on-year increase of 28% [7] - The cloud infrastructure (OCI) segment generated $3.3 billion in revenue, reflecting a 55% year-on-year growth [7] - The RPO surged by 359% year-on-year to $45.5 billion, driven by significant long-term contracts with AI companies like OpenAI [7] Profitability Concerns - Despite strong overall performance, Oracle's AI cloud business faced financial pressures, with a reported gross margin of only 14% from server leasing [8][9] - This gross margin is significantly lower than the company's traditional software business, which has an overall gross margin of about 70% [9] - Reports indicated that Oracle incurred substantial losses from leasing NVIDIA chips, including a nearly $100 million loss from the new Blackwell architecture chips in the last fiscal quarter [9]

Core Viewpoint - During the National Day holiday, gold prices surged due to multiple factors including the U.S. government shutdown, disappointing non-farm payroll data, and escalating trade policies, with both spot and futures gold prices reaching a historic high of $4,000 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown delayed the highly anticipated non-farm payroll data release, leading to a decrease in September ADP employment numbers by 32,000, contrary to the expected increase of 51,000 [1] - Following the release of the ADP employment data, traders increased their bets on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [1] - The probability of cumulative rate cuts by December shows a 9.8% chance for 25 basis points, 89.3% for 50 basis points, and 0.9% for 75 basis points [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Investors are flocking to the gold market seeking refuge amid heightened global economic and geopolitical risks, as noted by Huishang Futures [1] - Concerns have arisen regarding whether the AI-driven market surge has reached an "overly prosperous" level, particularly following Oracle's cloud business profit margin report [1] - The political crisis in France and leadership changes in Japan have intensified risk aversion globally, reinforcing gold's status as a safe haven [1]

Group 1 - The article maintains an optimistic outlook for the A-share market post-holiday, suggesting that a rise in prices is favorable, while a drop could present an opportunity [3] - Global stock markets showed positive performance during the A-share holiday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index experiencing a significant increase of 6.72% [4][6] - The article highlights that the A-share market's performance is not closely correlated with U.S. and Japanese markets, indicating that external market movements may not directly impact A-shares [13] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a "big rise followed by a volume contraction" pattern, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing mixed results [8] - The People's Bank of China is expected to conduct a significant reverse repurchase operation of 1.1 trillion yuan, which is likely to lead to a more relaxed liquidity environment in the market [16] - The article notes that the sentiment among investors is more cautious compared to the previous year, which may prevent a sharp decline in A-shares after the holiday [16]

Group 1 - The core concern is the sustainability of AI-driven trading, highlighted by Oracle's disappointing cloud business profit margins and losses in transactions involving NVIDIA chips, raising fears of a potential AI bubble similar to the late 1990s internet bubble [1] - Market observers are urging investors to adjust their portfolios, acknowledging that while the AI craze may still have upward potential, the overall market indicators appear overbought [2] - Goldman Sachs suggests that concerns over a tech stock bubble are premature, as the strong price increases are supported by robust earnings growth, although valuations are becoming elevated [3] Group 2 - Tesla has launched lower-priced versions of its Model Y and Model 3 on its U.S. website, indicating a strategic move to capture a broader market segment [4] - Alibaba has established an internal AI robotics team, reflecting its commitment to advancing in the AI sector [4] - Gold stocks have seen a broad increase, suggesting positive market sentiment in that sector [4]