牛牛市市氛氛围围显显现现，，上上证证站站稳稳33550000 22002255年年77月月1144日日--22002255年年77月月1188日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 02 债市方面，本周资金面较为均衡，债市表现分化，利率债小幅下跌，信用债小幅上涨，预计 纯债基金收益小幅收正。资金面上，本周恰逢税期考验流动性，但央行大量投放维持资金面 均衡格局。基本面上，二季度经济数据公布，结构分化明显，出口韧性较强，工业生产维持 高位，但地产跌幅扩大，投资端整体低于预期，整体看经济仍处弱复苏。债券供给方面，本 周超长特别国债发行小幅发飞，压制长债走势。 03 商品方面，COMEX黄金本周周度基本走平，宏观上看，美国经济数据超预期，压制黄金走 势，且鲍威尔解雇传言辟谣后，短期市场无避险情绪支撑，周度价格震荡收窄。 04 海外方面，本周全球风险资产多数上涨，美股继续新高，标普500和纳斯达克100指数均创 收盘价新高，黄仁勋宣布重启H20芯片在华销售，英伟达市值继续高歌猛进。周二公布的美 国通胀数据总体符合市场预期，但也引起了一定程度上对后续通胀抬升的担忧，降息延后的 可能性上升，十年美债收益率小幅上行，美元指数抬升。 具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of stablecoins has led to an increase in financial scams, with platforms like "Xin Kang Jia" using stablecoins as a facade for Ponzi schemes, attracting over 2 million investors and involving more than 10 billion yuan [1][2]. Group 1: Nature of the Scam - "Xin Kang Jia" presents itself as a legitimate investment platform by claiming to be a Chinese branch of the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX), promising unrealistic returns of 1% daily, equating to an annualized return of 365% [2]. - The platform requires investors to convert their yuan into Tether (USDT) before depositing, creating an illusion of cross-border asset allocation and enhancing its credibility [2][3]. - The scam operates by leveraging the popularity of stablecoins, blurring the lines between payment and investment attributes, and enticing investors with high returns [2][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Challenges - Many of these scams, including "Xin Kang Jia," utilize stablecoins to bypass traditional financial regulations, making it difficult for authorities to track and recover funds [4][7]. - The lack of regulatory oversight in mainland China allows these platforms to operate illegally, with warnings issued by various local financial authorities regarding the risks associated with stablecoins [7][8]. - The scams have increasingly spread to lower-tier cities and rural areas, where residents have limited understanding of stablecoins and blockchain technology, making them more susceptible to fraud [6][7]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Trends - Investors are often driven by greed and misinformation, leading them to participate in these schemes despite the risks involved [5][8]. - The narrative surrounding stablecoins is often manipulated to present them as innovative financial products, attracting a wide range of investors, including the elderly [6][8]. - The ongoing trend indicates that future scams will become more sophisticated, utilizing advanced technology and exploiting regulatory gaps globally [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of tokenized funds, particularly focusing on the recent issuance of USD and RMB tokenized funds by Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong), highlighting the potential disruption these funds could bring to traditional financial products and the necessity for China to embrace digital currencies and related technologies [1][9]. Group 1: Market Trends and Developments - Tokenized funds represent a transformation of traditional currency funds into digital tokens that can circulate on the blockchain, maintaining the same underlying assets as traditional funds [1][2]. - Over 95% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with more than 80% of transactions occurring outside the US, indicating a significant global expansion of the dollar through digital means [5][6]. - The recent passing of the Stablecoin Ordinance in Hong Kong and the government's declaration to establish Hong Kong as a leading hub for digital assets and Web3 innovation reflects a proactive regulatory environment [8][9]. Group 2: Strategic Implications for Huaxia Fund - Huaxia Fund's move into tokenized funds is seen as a necessary adaptation to the changing financial landscape, driven by both external market forces and internal recognition of the need for innovation [4][11]. - The company aims to leverage its first-mover advantage in the tokenized fund space, positioning itself to capture a significant share of the offshore RMB asset management market [22]. - The success of similar initiatives by major asset management firms like Franklin Templeton and BlackRock validates the potential of tokenized funds, suggesting a viable path for Huaxia Fund [20][21]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The transition to tokenized funds could revolutionize the financial system by enabling 24/7 trading and eliminating traditional intermediaries, thus enhancing efficiency [17][18]. - Despite the current limitations of tokenized funds, such as regional restrictions and the need for regulatory clarity, the growing acceptance of these products indicates a shift towards a new financial paradigm [17][19]. - Huaxia Fund's strategy to collaborate with potential stablecoin issuers and submit cash management proposals to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority demonstrates its commitment to becoming a key player in the evolving digital finance landscape [21][22].

又一次见证历史！ 美东时间周一，因科技股上涨，标普500指数和纳斯达克指数收盘创下历史新高。 市场受到大型科技股上涨的提振。Alphabet（谷歌母公司）上涨近3%，亚马逊、Meta（原 Facebook）股价也上涨逾1%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 一 | | --- | --- | --- | | 谷歌(ALPHABE ... | 191.150 | 2.80% | | GOOG.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 229.374 | 1.43% | | AMZN.O | | | | 脸书(META PLA ... | 712.965 | 1.23% | | META.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 212.480 | 0.62% | | AAPL.O | | | | 微软(MICROSO... | 510.060 | 0.00% | | MSFT.O | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 328.490 | -0.35% | | TSLA.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 171.380 | -0.60% | | NVDA.O | | | 本周，美国多家大型 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The current market should focus on both AI applications and stablecoin investment opportunities, as the performance of overseas and domestic AI applications is expected to accelerate [6][63] - The recent release of the Kimi-K2 model and OpenAI's Agent mode indicates significant advancements in AI capabilities, which are likely to enhance commercial applications [6][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector rose by 2.23% last week, ranking 6th among major industries, with a trading volume accounting for 11.19% of the total market [2][12] Key Developments - The Kimi-K2 model was officially released and is now available for commercial use, priced at 16 RMB per million tokens [17][27] - OpenAI introduced the Agent mode, which allows for complex multi-tool tasks, enhancing the capabilities of AI applications [29][30] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI applications with a Chinese characteristic infrastructure, particularly in data, computing power optimization, and adaptation, emphasizing IDC and domestic computing power supply chains [6][63] - Pay attention to large-scale AI application scenarios in education, justice, and healthcare [6][63] - In the stablecoin sector, monitor companies with issuance qualifications, technological expertise in blockchain, and relevant licenses [6][63] Market Trends - The global market for Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a potential market size of 500 billion USD by the end of 2025 [58][60] - The integration of traditional finance with blockchain technology is anticipated to reshape the financial landscape [54][63] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the advancements in AI models and the regulatory developments in stablecoins will create new investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like education, healthcare, and financial technology [6][63]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital is re-evaluating Chinese assets, with a significant shift towards increased investment in China's innovative sectors, particularly technology [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Trends - Approximately 60% of Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds plan to increase their allocation to Chinese assets over the next five years, focusing on technology-driven industries [2][3]. - The survey covered 83 sovereign wealth funds and 58 central banks, managing a total of $27 trillion (approximately 194 trillion yuan) in assets [4]. - In addition to the Middle East, 88% of sovereign funds in the Asia-Pacific and 80% in Africa indicated plans to invest more in China, with about 73% of North American funds also showing a positive attitude towards Chinese investments [5]. Group 2: Investment Drivers - Key factors driving sovereign funds to increase their allocation to Chinese assets include good returns from the Chinese market (71%), diversification of investment portfolios (63%), and improved access for foreign capital (45%) [6]. - Respondents generally recognize the supportive policies introduced by China, which are seen as beneficial for the development of innovative technologies [7]. Group 3: Attractive Investment Areas - The most attractive investment sectors in China include digital technology and software, advanced manufacturing and automation, clean energy and green technology, as well as healthcare and biotechnology [9]. - A Middle Eastern sovereign fund representative noted that China has no real competitors in the clean energy and green technology sectors, predicting that China will dominate the solar, wind, electric vehicle, and battery markets in the coming decades [10]. Group 4: Market Performance - On July 21, the A-share market saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index both reaching new highs for the year, closing with increases of 0.72% and 0.87%, respectively [11]. - The Hong Kong market also performed well, with the Hang Seng Index reaching 25,000 points, the highest since February 2022, and a year-to-date increase of 24.6% [13]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market phase is characterized by "asymmetrical risk and reward," with potential upward movement if certain triggers, such as policy announcements, occur [12]. - The technology sector in the Hong Kong market is seen as undervalued and poised for recovery, with the Hang Seng Technology Index's dynamic PE at 15.7 times, below the historical average of 23.8 times [14][15].

Group 1 - As of the end of Q2 2025, China's public fund industry has generated a profit of 5.94 trillion yuan for its holders since 1998, with the market size reaching a new high of 33.73 trillion yuan and overall net profit exceeding 380 billion yuan [2] - The top 20 funds by profit are predominantly broad-based ETFs, with most profits exceeding 2 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - The European Council President and the European Commission President are scheduled to visit China on July 24, where they will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang for the 25th China-EU Leaders' Meeting [3] - The State Council has announced the implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations starting September 15, 2025, aimed at standardizing rental activities and promoting high-quality development in the housing rental market [3] - The July LPR remains unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%, indicating a period of observation for monetary policy [3] Group 3 - China's economy is expected to run smoothly and improve in the second half of 2025, supported by proactive fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [4] - The Ministry of Commerce has urged the EU to stop listing Chinese companies and financial institutions in its sanctions against Russia, asserting the need to protect the legitimate rights of Chinese entities [4] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has released pilot guidelines for cross-border asset management, allowing foreign investors to invest in RMB-denominated products with a total initial cap of 10 billion yuan [4] Group 4 - The A-share market continues its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, closing up 0.72% at 3559.79 points, and a total market turnover of 1.73 trillion yuan [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68% at 24994.14 points, marking its highest level since February 2022, with significant inflows from southbound funds [5] - Hong Kong has seen a 30% increase in IPOs year-on-year, raising 124 billion HKD, which is a 590% increase compared to the previous year [5] Group 5 - The latest holdings of active equity funds show Tencent Holdings as the top holding, followed by CATL and Kweichow Moutai, with a noticeable reduction in the concentration of holdings among the top 20 stocks [6] - Zhang Kun from E Fund has increased holdings in several liquor stocks and Alibaba, while exiting from Yanghe Brewery [6] - Transsion Holdings is considering a secondary listing in Hong Kong, potentially raising around 1 billion USD [6] Group 6 - BYD plans a stock split of 10-for-8 and a conversion of 12 shares for every 10 held for the 2024 fiscal year [8] - Hainan Free Trade Port has released guidelines for cross-border asset management, allowing foreign investors to invest in RMB-denominated products [4] - The company reports a significant increase in net profit for the first half of the year, with estimates ranging from 607% to 961% [8]

Group 1 - The State Council of China has announced the "Housing Rental Regulations," which will take effect on September 15, 2025, emphasizing the development of the housing rental market through a combination of market-driven and government-guided approaches [1] - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued implementation details for cross-border asset management pilot business in Hainan, allowing foreign investors to use funds from both domestic and foreign sources to purchase pilot asset management products [2] - Reports suggest a potential meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents in the coming months, with the Chinese Foreign Ministry highlighting the strategic importance of such diplomatic engagements [3] Group 2 - A-share market has seen a record-breaking performance with the stock of Kexin New Materials achieving a 400% increase over nine consecutive trading days, setting a new record for A-shares [4] - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to boost China's investment and GDP growth by 0.23 and 0.09 percentage points respectively in the first year of construction, with nearly 30 related stocks covering various sectors [5] - The automotive industry in Guangdong and Anhui provinces is focusing on high-quality development of the new energy vehicle sector, with both provinces implementing policies to guide and regulate competition in the industry [6][7] Group 3 - Public funds have reduced their holdings in Kweichow Moutai, with over 361 million shares sold in the second quarter, reflecting a significant decline of over 50% since February 2021, amidst differing opinions on the future of the liquor sector [8] - U.S. stock indices have risen, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs, driven by strong performance from companies like Tesla and the Trump Media Technology Group [9][10] - Goldman Sachs predicts a continued bullish trend for U.S. stocks, forecasting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, supported by strong earnings performance [10] Group 4 - Oriental Precision has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Leju Robotics, focusing on humanoid robots, with expectations for mass production and commercialization in the near future [14] - Other sectors to watch include advancements in high-speed optical modules by Fuxin Technology and significant profit growth projections for companies like Haitai Ruisheng and Jinghe Integration [16][19]

基调为主，因为毕竟上半年的数字出来了。 分析师 1: 大家上午好，欢迎来到周一的宏观策略谈。我是邢自强 Robert 今天我们聚焦三个主题，首 先是下半年经济回落与否。接下来的政治局会议能不能有新招？不管是针对消费、基建，还 是最近市场屡有传言的房地产。同样呢，在中美伦敦会谈之后中美都出了新的牌，稀土换芯 片暂时取得了一定的成效，但是否能持续？包括这对于中国的 AI 的叙事。有没有新的变 化？同样呢，我们也注意到最近中美对于稳定币都有一些新的法案和推进，这后面也涉及到 接下来美元和人民币的角逐。 所以针对这三项议题呢，我们还是请来了常客，我们的首席策略师 Laura 我们亚洲硬科技 方面的首席 Charlie。还有房地产行业的首席分析师 Steven 当然还有我们中国经济团队的 资深经济学家兼李正林。在像往常一样，我可能先开场来分析一下，我们觉得中美的经济， 下半年挑战都更大。也就是说爬坡压力在后面。这块呢，大家都注意到了，首先是中国本身 上半年的经济增速公布出来，比预期要略好。我想各个研究机构呢在过去两周也被动的没办 法上调了对全年经济增长的预期，因为二季度的 GDP 已经公布了，摆在这里。 那你全年的水涨 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Chutianlong - **Industry**: Technology, Digital Currency, Telecommunications Key Points and Arguments Industry Performance and Outlook - The technology sector has shown better performance, sentiment, and order conditions compared to other industries, with a prediction that the large technology style will dominate the A-share market over the next three years [2][4] - Communication, computer, and media sectors are currently undervalued, with companies like ZTE, Xunxin, and Luxshare Precision having low price-to-earnings ratios around ten times [3][4] - AI technology is driving significant changes in the industry, with major figures like Bill Gates, Zuckerberg, and Musk recognizing its importance [3] Digital Currency Trends - The development of digital currencies is positive, with a global rise in stablecoins, including new legislation in the US and extensive promotion in Hong Kong [2][6] - Chutianlong is a leading company in the domestic digital currency sector, ranking first in traditional card business and participating in the formulation of national core standards [2][6] Financial Performance - Chutianlong expects a net loss of 35 to 40 million yuan in the first half of 2025, attributed to weak market demand, declining product bidding prices, slow payment from government clients, and increased R&D investment [2][7] - The company aims to improve internal efficiency and accelerate accounts receivable collection to achieve a turnaround by year-end [7] Business Segments - The most promising segments for profitability in the second half of 2025 are social security and telecommunications, with a leading market share in social security and expectations for growth in super SIM cards and IoT cards [8][9] - The company is increasing R&D investment in digital currency applications and AI certification [8][16] Stablecoin and RMB Internationalization - Chutianlong views the promotion of the digital RMB as crucial for the internationalization of the RMB, with stablecoin strategies centered around the RMB [10][15] - The company is actively involved in the development of digital currency operational institutions and systems, with ongoing projects in cross-border trade and settlement systems [12][14] Market Challenges and Strategies - The company faces challenges from slow account receivable recovery and increased competition in overseas markets, leading to a strategic focus on established products for international expansion [17][19] - Chutianlong is exploring partnerships with major companies for stablecoin development and cross-border applications, indicating a proactive approach to market opportunities [18][23] Future Outlook - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company expresses confidence in long-term growth, supported by increased business activities and strategic partnerships [24] - The company is optimistic about the future of stablecoins and their integration with digital RMB, highlighting the potential for innovative financial transactions [11][18] Additional Important Content - AI applications are beginning to show significant value, with developments in smart governance and potential for future growth in various sectors [21] - The company is exploring BIM (Building Information Modeling) and its integration with SIM cards and blockchain technology, indicating a focus on innovative solutions [22]