晨报 成材 成材：缺乏驱动 钢价整理 逻辑：中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，中国人民银行将用好用足适度 宽松的货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降 息，保持流动性充裕，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业稳增长 重点领域精准加力，做好金融支持。4 月 28 日 Mysteel 统计 76 家独立电 弧炉建筑钢材钢厂平均成本为 3351 元/吨，日环比增加 2 元/吨，平均利 润为-69 元/吨，谷电利润为 36 元/吨，日环比增加 11 元/吨。4 月 21 日 -4 月 27 日，全球船厂共接获 16 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 10 艘新 船订单；韩国船厂接获 6 艘新船订单。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 29 日 重要声明： 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资 ...

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｜2025年4月29日星期二｜ NO.3 国家发改委赵辰昕：对实现今年经济社会发展任务充满信心 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕4月28日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，将加力推动既定政策的落地见效， 包括提振消费专项行动，用好今年国家层面5万亿元的投资资金，加快设立国家创业投资引导基金等， 这些政策大部分将在二季度落地。会不断强化政策取向的一致性，不管国际形势如何变化，我们将锚定 发展目标，保持战略定力，集中精力办好自己的事，对实现今年经济社会发展任务充满信心。 NO.4 商务部盛秋平：消费品以旧换新政策的实施合计拉动消费超7200亿元 4月28日，商务部盛秋平在国新办新闻发布会上表示，截至4月27日，消费品以旧换新政策的实施合计拉 动消费超过7200亿元。政策实施以来，一大批外贸外资企业得到了政策支持。智能、绿色、健康、时尚 的消费新产品走进千家万户。目前已有超过1.2亿人次享受到了真金白银的补贴优惠。 NO.1 我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措 据新华社报道，国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕4月28日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，我国将出台 实施稳就业、稳经济、推动高质量发展的若干举措。 NO.2 中 ...

// 今日关注 // // 宏观预警 // 1、外交部：中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判 外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者提问，据报道，美国总统特朗普4月22日接受《时代》杂 志采访时表示，中方领导人给他打了电话，请问中方对此有何评论?中美是否在谈判？郭嘉昆表示，"据 我了解，近期两国元首没有通话。我要重申，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判。" 2、十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议继续审议民营经济促进法草案 十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议4月27日下午对民营经济促进法草案三次审议稿进行了分组审议。 常委会组成人员表示，草案经过两次审议修改，充分吸收各方面意见建议，进一步充实服务、保障民营 经济发展相关举措，进一步规范执法行为，深入推进严格规范公正文明执法，结构合理、内容全面，已 经比较成熟，建议本次常委会会议表决通过。 3、央行：将适时降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具 中国人民银行副行长邹澜在国新办新闻发布会上表示，将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适 时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，发挥好货币政策工具箱总量和结构双重功能，创设新的结构性货币政策 工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长的重点领域 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between the Governor of the People's Bank of China and the IMF President signals China's commitment to deepening international financial cooperation, potentially enhancing cross-border capital flows and exchange rate policy coordination [1] - The dialogue may create a more stable external environment for domestic financial institutions to participate in global governance, with opportunities for innovation in cross-border payment and offshore RMB business [1] - The collaboration could optimize the allocation logic of sovereign funds and foreign institutions towards Chinese assets due to policy alignment [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China plans to implement more proactive macro policies, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and support key areas for employment and growth [2] - The expansion of the monetary policy toolbox highlights a structural focus, which may improve the financing environment for real enterprises, particularly in technology innovation and green transformation sectors [2] - The reasonable liquidity in the interbank market may alleviate pressure on small financial institutions, although pricing power disparities could intensify industry restructuring [2] Group 3 - In March, China's international balance of payments for goods and services trade reached 4.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with a trade surplus of 603.4 billion yuan [3] - The improvement in foreign trade data is expected to reinforce the safe-haven attributes of RMB assets, injecting stability into the capital market [3] Group 4 - In Q1 2025, China's gold consumption decreased by 5.96% year-on-year, while gold production increased by 1.49% to 87.24 tons [4] - The significant structural differentiation in gold consumption reflects a trend towards physical gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks, benefiting gold mining companies [4] - The retail jewelry sector faces pressure, but innovations in traditional gold and lightweight products may provide new opportunities, especially among younger consumers [4] Group 5 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) shares reached a new historical high, closing at 7.29 yuan per share, up 1.11% [5] - The continuous rise in bank stocks, particularly among the four major state-owned banks, indicates a market re-evaluation of high dividend assets [6] - The deepening of financial supply-side reforms and the improvement of deposit rate marketization may accelerate the wealth management transformation of leading banks, reshaping the industry valuation system [6]

央行副行长邹澜说，正在研究丰富政策工具箱，将适时推出增量政策。这个工具箱里有什么，邹澜没有具体点出来，但是我们可以通过前 两天的中央政治局会议的部署来看，这个工具箱里至少包括创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，设立服务消费与养老再 贷款，创新推出债券市场的"科技板"等等。 这场发布会也给民营企业融资带来了更多信心。邹澜表示要扩大民营企业债券融资规模、推广"两新" 债务融资工具。这就意味着民营企 业融资选择更多了，过去民营企业融资主要靠银行贷款，风险集中。现在通过债券融资，企业能直接面向市场筹资，降低成本、优化结构。 听完发布会，老王能看到政策层面展现出的系统性和前瞻性，各项政策环环相扣、协同发力，既解决当下贸易摩擦带来的困境，又为经济 高质量发展奠定基础。 邹澜的表态尽管不长，但明确传递了一个信号，就是无论外部环境如何，我们都有充足的预案，这既稳定了国内预期，也提振了市场信 心。 在美国滥施关税的当下，外贸企业，特别是众多民营中小企业怎么办？邹澜明确不抽贷、不断贷，尤其是对外贸依存度高、暂时遇到困 难、产品有竞争力的中小企业，给遇到资金困难的企业送了一颗 "定心丸" 。 央视网消息：4月28日 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 缩量确认关键支撑 等待放量反弹机会 ——股指周报2025.04.28 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 | 本期观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | 股指 | 1、中信建投研究，此次政治局会议并未涉及到调整预算、出台大规模增量刺激政策的 | IC/IM 的组合套 | 1）外部市场环境； 2）地缘政治因素； 3）宏观政策调整。 | | | 表述，强调既定政策"加紧实施"、"用足用好"，符合预期。主因当前既定政策还有大幅 | | | | | 空间未用，没有必要安排增量政策。下半年预计仍有增量财政政策，中央对外部冲击已 | | | | | 有充分估计，明确"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备 | | | | | 政策"。出台的时间节点我们预计在三季度中后期，一是彼时当前财政空间或已充分使 | | | | | 用，二则往年也有参考经验。消费领域，提出 ...

本报记者 李晖 实习记者 许璐 北京报道 2025年4月27日，中国人民银行北京市分行举行2025年第二季度新闻发布会，公布了今年一季度北京地 区金融统计数据和推进"金融五篇大文章"方面的政策落实情况。 《中国经营报》记者在现场了解到，一季度北京地区人民币各项贷款余额同比增长5.1%，社会融资规 模增量8425.5亿元，处于历史较高水平。此外，作为支持资本市场平稳运行的结构性货币政策工具，目 前北京地区的股票回购增持再贷款累计发放达142亿元。 中国人民银行北京市分行调查统计处副处长刘前进在发布会上表示，一季度北京地区金融总量平稳增 长，信贷结构持续优化，实体经济融资成本稳步下行，为首都经济高质量发展提供有力支持。 实体经济融资成本继续下行 根据披露，截至3月末，北京地区人民币各项贷款余额同比增长5.1%，剔除基数影响后，两年几何平均 增速达8.7%，比年初增加4499.7亿元。 在普惠金融方面，截至3月末，全市普惠小微贷款余额1.05万亿元，同比增长12.4%；涉农贷款余额6083 亿元，同比增长9.8%；创业担保贷款余额126亿元，同比增长71%。 在养老金融方面，北京地区银行网点适老化改造完成率已接近9 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The Longjiang Bank Index increased by 0.6% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.2% and underperforming the ChiNext Index by 1.4%. The banking sector's defensive attributes have gained traction due to a decline in market risk appetite [2][6] - The performance of listed banks remains stable, with city commercial banks exceeding expectations in their Q1 reports, supporting upward valuation adjustments. Notably, Chongqing Bank and Nanjing Bank reported significant year-on-year growth in net interest income of 28% and 18%, respectively, driven by a low base from last year and improved interest margins [2][7][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Longjiang Bank Index's performance reflects a shift towards defensive investments in the banking sector amid rising risk aversion. The index's performance is supported by the positive earnings reports from major banks [2][6] Earnings Reports - As of April 25, 2025, 15 A-share listed banks have disclosed their Q1 earnings. Most banks reported positive revenue growth, with only two banks experiencing declines. The net profit for all but one bank also showed positive growth. The asset quality remains stable, with non-performing loan ratios generally declining or stable [7][29] - The rebound in net interest income growth is a key highlight, with nine banks reporting year-on-year increases. The overall improvement in net interest margins is attributed to a significant reduction in funding costs [29][30] Dividend Yields - As of April 25, 2025, the average dividend yield for the five major state-owned banks in A-shares is 4.5%, with a spread of 280 basis points over the 10-year government bond yield. The H-shares have an average yield of 6.0%, with a spread of 435 basis points, indicating a more attractive yield in the H-share market [6][23] Monetary Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25, 2025, reiterated the need for timely interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. The meeting emphasized the creation of new structural monetary policy tools to support technological innovation and consumption expansion [35][37]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and is exploring additional policy tools to support economic growth and stabilize the market amid global financial volatility and trade tensions with the U.S. [1][8] Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The PBOC plans to maintain ample liquidity to create a favorable financial environment for the development of private enterprises [1][6] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment strategy for foreign exchange reserves, stating that fluctuations in single markets or assets have a limited impact on China's reserves [3][4] - The PBOC aims to enhance financial support for private enterprises, focusing on sectors such as technology, green economy, and consumption [6][9] Financial Market Stability - The PBOC is focused on strengthening the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilizing market expectations, while also addressing any disruptive market behaviors [4][5] - Recent data shows that the broad money supply (M2) reached 326 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, indicating a stable financial system [8] - The PBOC is prepared to adjust monetary policy tools, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to ensure liquidity remains sufficient [8][9] Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC has introduced measures to enhance financial services for private enterprises, including the implementation of the "25 measures" to support the private economy [6][7] - As of March 2023, loans to privately held enterprises amounted to approximately 45 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 trillion yuan [7] - The PBOC is also working on improving the financing mechanisms for small and medium-sized enterprises, including the establishment of a credit information sharing platform [7]