专家解读"外卖大战"20250707 摘要 淘宝闪购通过淘宝 APP 导流，DAU 增加约 1.1 亿，用户平均停留时长 增加 5 分钟，购买频次提高约 1.5 次，显著拉动主站电商 GMV，6 月为 电商带来 5,200 万订单和 86 亿元 GMV。 饿了么在上海市占率超 50%，杭州约 45%，江浙沪优势明显。一线城 市市占率约 40%，二线城市 35%-45%，三四五线城市较低，多在 20%-30%，低线城市市场拓展是重点。 平台计划未来 12 个月投入 500 亿元补贴，主要用于骑手端（约 50 亿）、商户和代理商端（约 50 亿）以及用户端（约 400 亿），用户端 补贴 7-8 月预计花费 160 亿元以稳定日均单量。 淘宝闪购增长最快的品类是奶茶咖啡及快餐，非餐饮类别中，商超、生 鲜水果、服饰百货增长较快，3C 家电、母婴美妆及酒水食品等类别也表 现出显著增长潜力。 2025 年 7 月初饿了么单均亏损 4.6 元，补贴力度加大后亏损增至 6 元。 计划通过调整补贴分摊比例，逐步减少平台承担比例，降低亏损，目标 年底单均亏损降至 2 元多，明年 6 月实现单月盈利。 Q&A 近日淘宝闪购和饿了 ...

2025.07. 08 本文字数：2409，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 乐琰 曾经被誉为"民营超市第一股"的人人乐（002336.SZ）退市了。日前，人人乐公告称，公司股票已被 深交所决定终止上市，在7月4日摘牌。 人人乐的退市并不让人意外，多年连续亏损，已经让人人乐关店止损，但显然此举也并未使得人人乐 的业绩有明显改善，最终只得退市。而人人乐的退市也让更多投资者的目光聚焦到了零售企业，第一 财经记者采访了解到，这几年整体零售市场承压，不少零售商都在缩水或转型，即时零售、会员店、 折扣店等新业态的崛起更是分流了传统实体零售商的生意，有不少业者估测，明年应该会有更多传统 零售商关店或转型新业态。 加速扩张不一定是好事 无奈之下，人人乐只能关店止损。公告显示，截至2024年年末，人人乐拥有门店32家，全部为直营 门店。2024年，公司新开门店1家、关闭45家门店、转让15家门店。 尽管已经在关店，但整体情况仍不容乐观。公开信息显示，2025年以来，人人乐的收盘总市值不曾 超过30亿元。7月3日收盘，人人乐的股价为每股0.36元，总市值约为1.58亿元，相比鼎盛时期的百 亿元总市值，严重缩水。 从会员店 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of recent alcohol bans on the retail liquor industry, highlighting a drastic decline in sales and a shift in business models for liquor stores and convenience stores due to changing consumer behavior and regulatory pressures [2][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Alcohol Ban - The ban has led to a sales decline of over 80% for many liquor stores, with more than 90% of stores experiencing severe damage [2]. - The core business model of liquor stores, which relied heavily on corporate bulk orders (50-70% of sales), has been disrupted, forcing them to operate as regular retail stores [3]. - High-end liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are particularly affected, with inventory turnover days increasing from 45 to over 70 days [4]. Group 2: Decline in Convenience Stores - Convenience stores are facing a "chronic consumption battle," with average daily customer traffic down by about 15% compared to the previous year [7]. - The average number of items purchased per customer has decreased from 3.9 to 2.8, indicating a shift towards more targeted shopping behavior [8]. - The decline in customer traffic and average purchase quantity is leading to a continuous drop in the average transaction value [8][10]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The retail landscape is shifting from a focus on information asymmetry and channel advantages to a more competitive environment where operational efficiency is crucial [10]. - Convenience stores must adapt by either reducing physical space or diversifying their service offerings to attract more customers [12][15]. - The transition to a "community service node" model is essential for survival, as traditional liquor sales are no longer sufficient [15]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - The article emphasizes the need for convenience stores to embrace a "small but refined" strategy, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency [12]. - In high-density urban areas, convenience stores must evolve into brand-oriented establishments that offer not just products but also experiences and social interactions [14]. - The survival of retail businesses now hinges on continuous operational refinement, market sensitivity, and the willingness to adapt to changing consumer demands [15].

7月7日，淘宝闪购、饿了么联合宣布，淘宝闪购日订单数超8000万，日活跃用户超过2亿。与此同时，就在前一天，美团餐饮日订单更是突破了1亿单。短短 一个周末，电商巨头以大额补贴掀起了一场单日破2亿单量的超级外卖大战。不少商家、骑手猝不及防泼天的订单和福利。 电商巨头大打外卖流量战，首拿奶茶品类撬动年轻人。但其更深层的目的，则指向外卖流量对非餐类业务的连带效应。进入暑期出游季，酒旅、订票、即时 零售等业务更是电商兵家必争之地。 日订单! 超4 口:工用版 平台补贴上演"0元购" 持续数年的外卖大战，依然是同样的"配方"。外卖平台出手撒补贴，消费者奶茶"薅"到手软。与此同时，"外卖发优惠券有商家称1小时接300单""外卖大战 有骑手称一晚跑36单挣1000"相关话题在社交平台引发热议。 种种讨论都源于最近的一场补贴大战。7月5日晚间，淘宝、美团两大平台放出了大量且大额的外卖红包券，其中，包括"满25减24""满15减15""满22减18"等 多张无门槛外卖券，甚至部分外卖还能"0元购"。例如淘宝闪购平台推出了"满18减18"的新人专享红包，美团也联合不同奶茶饮品品牌推出了"0元喝奶茶"的 平台福利活动。 而平台的动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The delisting of Renrenle reflects the severe challenges faced by the traditional retail industry and the competitive pressure brought by the rise of new business models [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Renrenle, once known as the "first private supermarket stock," has been delisted from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with its stock being terminated on July 4 [1] - The company has experienced continuous losses over the years, leading to store closures as a damage control measure, but this has not significantly improved its performance, ultimately resulting in its delisting [1][4] - As of the end of 2024, Renrenle had 32 stores, all of which were direct-operated, having opened 1 new store, closed 45, and transferred 15 stores [5] Group 2: Financial Performance - Renrenle's financial reports indicate a continuous decline, with net profits being negative for three consecutive fiscal years from 2021 to 2023, and a significant drop in revenue of 49.86% in 2024, amounting to 1.43 billion yuan [4] - The company's market capitalization has severely decreased, with its stock price at 0.36 yuan per share as of July 3, 2023, leading to a total market value of approximately 158 million yuan, a stark contrast to its peak market value of over 10 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The traditional retail sector is under significant pressure due to the rise of e-commerce and new retail formats such as membership stores and discount stores, which have diverted business from traditional retailers [3][6] - Competitors like Carrefour have also faced challenges, with many of their stores closing in the Chinese market, indicating a broader trend of decline in traditional retail [6] - The emergence of instant retail has intensified competition, with companies like Meituan and Alibaba engaging in aggressive pricing strategies, making it difficult for traditional retailers to compete [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that more traditional retailers may face store closures or the need to transform their business models in the coming year, as the competitive landscape continues to evolve [8] - The pressure on traditional retailers to adapt to new market conditions is increasing, with suggestions for them to learn from successful models in service, delivery, and supply chain management [8]

进入7月，猝不及防地，外卖"补贴大战"骤然升级。 安静已久的美团，终于在7月5日吹响反击号角，出手发放了大量的免单券和大额优惠券。当日晚间，美团宣布其即时零售日订 单量突破1.2亿单大关。 而就在三天前，7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布将在12个月内直补消费者及商家共500亿元。此举被业界解读为阿里在即时零售领域对美 团发起的"强势防守"，避免重蹈在社区团购等新兴市场被对手甩开的覆辙。 值得注意的是，阿里巴巴在7月3日发布公告，计划发行本金总额约120亿港元、2032年到期的零票息可交换债券，交换标的为旗 下阿里健康的股份。此举无疑将增强阿里巴巴在AI、电商出海及即时零售战场的资金储备。 从高频的外卖市场切入，平台都希望借此推动那些低频、高客单价的商品销售，从而带来整体盈亏的平衡。 对于即时零售的行业大战，银河证券研究院研究所副所长、消费组组长何伟在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时认为，即时零售 的本质是履约能力包括快递、外卖等形态，而不是真正的电商交易。它满足的是消费者希望有人帮忙跑腿购物的需求，其本质 类似于快递服务。消费者通过平台下单，快递员根据需求在本地购买商品并送达，因此这类商品覆盖的品类还是有限的。"以家 电 ...

Core Insights - Instant retail in China has seen a significant surge, with Meituan reporting over 120 million orders on July 5, surpassing last year's peak of 90 million orders, indicating a highly competitive landscape among major platforms [1] - The competition among JD, Alibaba, and Meituan has intensified, with each platform implementing aggressive strategies to capture market share [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Instant retail is defined as the ability for consumers to receive goods or services shortly after placing an order online, with food delivery being a major component [1] - The market is expanding into various categories such as fresh produce, pharmaceuticals, and groceries, making instant retail a critical strategic area for e-commerce giants [1] - The competition is characterized by high intensity, as evidenced by JD's entry into the food delivery market and the subsequent strategic adjustments made by Alibaba and Meituan [2] Group 2: Short-term Strategies - Platforms are leveraging substantial subsidies to attract users, with JD offering high-quality restaurant options and significant incentives for full-time delivery personnel [2] - Alibaba has launched a substantial subsidy program totaling 50 billion yuan to enhance user engagement on its platforms [2] - Meituan's recent promotional activities have resulted in record order volumes, showcasing the market's potential [2] Group 3: Sustainability Concerns - The current state of high subsidies is not sustainable, as profitability is essential for long-term operations [3] - The surge in orders has led to resource wastage and operational strain on businesses, highlighting the challenges of maintaining service quality under high demand [3] - Historical patterns indicate that subsidy wars typically do not result in lasting competitive advantages, often leading to market consolidation [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Instant retail is viewed as a long-term endeavor, with the impact of subsidy wars on market structure being limited [4] - A significant portion of recent orders remains concentrated in the food sector, suggesting that the effectiveness of subsidies may be restricted to existing market segments rather than expanding into new ones [4] - Moving forward, platforms need to focus on building a sustainable ecosystem that empowers merchants and delivery personnel to ensure a consistent supply of quality services [4]

外卖市场单日订单规模达到 2 亿量级。 文 丨 邱豪 沈方伟 管艺雯 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 管艺雯 7 月 5 日，周六，阿里内部代号 "淮海战役" 的百日闪购增长计划迎来第一个冲单日，内部预期 单量站上 7000 万单。淘宝天猫的市场团队拿出比肩双 11 的预算和阵仗，把各大应用开屏刷成 了橙色。 当天上午，美团在多个城市监测饿了么的配送情况，发现没有超出预期，一位区域经营人员因 此松了口气，觉得可能像之前防御京东一样轻松。但临近下午，他和全国其他美团一线经营人 员突然接到通知，当天要放开限制，全力补贴、极尽所能跟进淘宝闪购的补贴战，冲高单量。 于是在 7 月的第一个周末，两大外卖平台动员了数万员工、几十万个商户、几百万骑手，顶着多地近 40 度的酷暑高温，开始了一场即时零售的压力测试。 品牌商家对美团的全力冲刺毫无准备，大型连锁品牌大多当天下午才接到通知，有些商家甚至表示没 接到通知，就发现平台开始补贴自己。全国各地的奶茶店里，打单机不停地吐出订单，堆积数米长， 有的直接系统崩溃、店员只好手写订单，店内和门外挤满了排队取单的骑手，很多店铺不得不关闭外 卖业务。 美团临时阻击后，淘宝闪购员工并 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant subsidy war has erupted among instant retail platforms, leading to a surge in order volume, with daily orders increasing from approximately 100 million in May to 200 million currently, driven by substantial financial incentives from platforms like Taobao Flash Sale and Meituan [1][6][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent subsidy war involves a broader range of categories and merchants, including independent coffee shops, fast food, bakeries, and community fresh food stores, unlike previous subsidy battles that focused mainly on chain brands [4]. - Taobao Flash Sale announced a direct consumer and merchant subsidy of 50 billion yuan over 12 months, significantly boosting its daily order volume and user engagement [6][7]. - As of July 5, Meituan reported over 1.2 billion daily orders, with more than 1 billion being food delivery orders, indicating a strong competitive response to Taobao's initiatives [7]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - JD's entry into the market with a 10 billion yuan subsidy has also intensified competition, with JD's daily order volume surpassing 25 million and capturing over 31% of the national food delivery market [6]. - The instant retail market in China is rapidly growing, with a projected scale of 6.5 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.89%, and expected to exceed 20 trillion yuan by 2030 [7][8]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - Merchants have expressed challenges in handling the sudden influx of orders due to the unexpected nature of the subsidy campaigns, leading to operational strains [4][5]. - Delivery personnel have reported increased workloads and delays in order fulfillment, highlighting the logistical challenges posed by the surge in demand [5].

据尼尔森国际咨询公司称，亚马逊在2024年举行的为期两天的"Prime Day"活动规模"与整个为期五天 的'网络星期五'周末相当，该周末包括感恩节、黑色星期五、接下来的那个周末以及网络星期一"。 自 2015年以来，Prime Day这一活动一直成效显著。此后，其他零售商也纷纷推出了自己的竞争活动。 沃尔玛(WMT.US)将于7月8日启动"沃尔玛优惠活动"，并超越亚马逊，将活动时间从四天延长至六天。 美国各大零售商本周正在开展夏季促销活动，它们都在努力吸引那些寻求实惠商品的顾客，这可能会是 今年最繁忙的购物时段之一。 亚马逊(AMZN.US)的"Prime日"——今年夏天规模最大的购物活动——将于当地时间周二(7月8日)拉开 帷幕，并且其持续时间已从通常的两天延长至四天。美国银行表示，此次延期表明亚马逊拥有更强的零 售物流能力，能够开展促销活动，并且库存供应不存在限制。美国银行预测此次活动的总商品销售额 (GMV)将超过210亿美元，同比增长约60%。 此次活动将首次同时在线上和其遍布美国的4600家门店中举行。从美国东部时间7月7日晚上7点起， Walmart+会员将率先获得参与资格。 塔吉特(TGT.U ...