5月13日，贵港市港北区爱玛智慧出行产业园大门外，爱玛第二届超级内购会巨幅海报格外醒目。 厂房内，企业精心布置了装车区、旧车区、收银区等功能区域，各式新款电动车整齐排列。现场人气高 涨，前来看车购车的市民络绎不绝，销售人员热情讲解车型亮点，耐心解答购车咨询。 "我买的这款车零售价3999元，享受多重补贴后只需2399元，太实惠啦！"顾客林淑慧现场看中了爱 玛启航款电动车，果断下单购买。 为响应国家新一轮以旧换新政策，此次爱玛内购会活动，通过叠加"政府补贴＋品牌补贴＋厂家补 贴"三重优惠，消费者最高可享2000元购车补贴。"4天的内购会累计销售电动车880辆，成交金额220万 元，核销以旧换新793份。"爱玛科技集团股份有限公司营销部广西销售总监刁元泽告诉记者。 此外，当地众多企业还将促销阵地延伸至商业街与专卖店，开设分会场。记者在贵港市中山中路台 铃电动车专卖店看到，许多市民在选购心仪的电动车，店里挂满了促销标语。门店负责人陈念明 说："得益于政企双补，门店日均销量超20辆，较平日增长约50％。" 贵港市商务局数据显示，今年截至5月10日，贵港市电动自行车以旧换新核销数量为1.57万份，核 销补贴金额765万 ...

Core Insights - JD's Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest quarterly growth rate in three years, with service revenue at 58.8 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.8 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 43.4% [2][10] - The retail revenue of JD grew by 16.3% year-on-year to 263.8 billion yuan, driven by strong user growth and supply chain optimization [2][10] Revenue and Profitability - The group achieved a gross margin of 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][10] - JD's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3][10] - The company continues to enhance its operational efficiency through its supply chain infrastructure and smart integration of business ecosystems [3][10] Business Development - JD's food delivery service surpassed 10 million daily orders as of April 22, 2025, indicating significant progress in this segment [3][10] - The company has repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares, amounting to approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [3][10] - The expansion of the platform into new markets, including Hong Kong and international regions, is ongoing, with a focus on maintaining high growth rates in various product categories [10] Policy and Market Environment - The April Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing employment and the economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4][11] - The government is expected to introduce flexible policies to address uncertainties in tariffs and enhance financial support for various sectors [11] - The focus on long-term structural reforms and support for consumer spending is anticipated to drive economic growth in the coming quarters [11]

Group 1: Economic Performance - In April, the sales revenue of enterprises in China increased by 4.3% year-on-year, continuing the steady growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year, driven by a series of existing and incremental policies [1] - The eastern region, particularly economic powerhouses like Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing, saw sales revenue growth of 4.8%, with Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Beijing growing by 7.3%, 6.6%, and 5.4% respectively, significantly above the national average [1] Group 2: Industry Growth - In April, industrial enterprises' sales revenue grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing sales revenue increasing by 4.4%, primarily driven by the "two new" policies [2] - Specific sectors such as electrical machinery, computer manufacturing, and instrumentation saw sales revenue growth of 12.8%, 15.7%, and 15.9% respectively [2] - High-tech industries and core digital economy sectors reported sales revenue growth of 15.3% and 13.4% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Consumer Policies and Trends - The "old-for-new" consumption promotion policies have positively impacted consumer demand and released residents' consumption potential, with a focus on boosting consumer confidence [3] - As of April 27, the "old-for-new" program led to significant sales, including 281.4 million vehicles and 49.416 million home appliances, contributing over 720 billion yuan to sales [2] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Domestic Sales - In response to uncertainties in international trade, the government has implemented policies to help foreign trade enterprises expand into domestic sales, with domestic sales for companies engaged in exports to the U.S. increasing by 4.7% year-on-year [4] - Among 31 manufacturing categories, 21 saw an increase in the proportion of domestic sales compared to the previous year, with notable increases in sectors like leather products and footwear [4] Group 5: Trade Statistics - In the first four months of the year, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [5] - In April, the total goods trade value was 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports increasing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [5]

不过，吃下红利后，还需要正视红利退场后可能造成的影响，特别是当高基数增长的可持续性更多地取决于外部因素、而不是行业竞争和内部 变化本身时。 竞争局面一度轰轰烈烈的外卖业务，备受分析师的关注——前两个提问都与之有关。2025年第一季度，京东在外卖领域全面发力，通过拓城招 商、骑手五险一金缴纳、升级在App的入口位置等举措，持续加码。许冉透露，京东外卖已接近实现日均2000万单。她认为，"即时零 售"和"外卖业务"在战略上都是从京东核心的零售业务角度出发，深植于整体业务生态而不是割裂的，可以和现有业务产生巨大的协同价值。 2025年第一季度，京东高调入局外卖领域，为平淡了许久的互联网行业增添了几分热闹，也让外界十分关注这项新业务的表现，特别是加大投 入可能带来的影响。5月13日，京东发布了2025年第一季度业绩，无论是收入还是利润，数字都称得上不错。同时，财报中以一定篇幅介绍了 外卖业务的表现，称"在极短时间内已经取得显著进展"，京东CEO许冉也表示："我们在新业务探索中取得令人鼓舞的早期成果。" 这一季度，京东收获了几个双位数增长百分比——总收入为3011亿元，同比增长15.8%，为近三年以来最快增幅；非美国通 ...

Core Insights - JD Group reported Q1 2025 revenue of 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, outperforming major U.S. retailers, indicating strong growth in China's consumer market [2] - The overall retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from categories like home appliances and digital products, driven by trade-in policies and seasonal consumption [2][4] - Service retail also saw growth, with a 5% year-on-year increase, reflecting a broad recovery across various sectors [2] Group 1: Market Performance - JD's growth strategy included trade-in services and a diverse range of new products, successfully capturing market opportunities and enhancing domestic consumption vitality [2][4] - In contrast, major U.S. retailers, including Amazon, experienced revenue growth slowdowns, with Amazon's Q1 revenue at $155.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, marking the lowest growth rate in two years [3] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Consumer enthusiasm was high during the spring and New Year festival, with over 90% purchasing local New Year goods, particularly in food and home appliances [4] - JD's trade-in services covered over 200 categories, meeting diverse consumer needs from urban to rural areas, with significant growth in sales of air conditioners and kitchen appliances [4] Group 3: Innovation and Strategy - JD launched a "New Product Growth Plan" aiming to support brands with 10 billion yuan in funding and traffic, targeting significant sales milestones for new products [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing the consumer experience through supply chain innovation and technology upgrades, aiming to build a collaborative retail ecosystem [6]

2025 年 5 月 13 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线——《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇 从资产价格而言，短期全球将开启一段 risk on 的交易，风险资产价格上涨、避险资 产交易热情暂歇；但美国逆全球化趋势已成，将给资产定价模式和资金流动方向带来 永久性改变，这条慢叙事逻辑依然没有被打破。 【宏观】今年以来"以旧换新"政策效果如何？——《见微知著》第二十一篇 据测算，今年一季度消费品以旧换新（家电、汽车、通讯设备）的财政乘数提高至 2.4，高于去年 9-12 月的 2.1，主要得益于国补范围拓宽至消费电子领域。预计二季 度以旧换新财政乘数仍能保持在较高水平，一是，4 月以来以旧换新申请速度进一步 加快；二是，近期第二批 810 亿元以旧换新资金下达；三是，地方政府因地制宜拓宽 国补范畴，叠加消费券配套发放，更好发挥政策效果。 【策略】【光大证券】A 股市场策略数据库-20250510 大类资产方面，本周大类资产涨多跌少，纳斯达克指数涨幅居前，WTI 原油现货价跌 幅居前。 A 股宽基指数方面，本周宽基指数涨多跌少，中小 100 涨幅居前，科创 50 ...

Core Insights - China's passenger car retail sales experienced a significant growth of 7.9% in the first four months of the year, reaching 6.872 million units, with April alone seeing a 14.5% year-on-year increase to 1.755 million units, just shy of the historical record set in April 2018 [1][2] - The production and sales of automobiles in China surpassed 10 million units for the first time in history during the first four months of the year [1][2] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) sector showed remarkable performance, with production and sales in April reaching 1.251 million and 1.226 million units respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 43.8% and 44.2%, and accounting for 47.3% of total new car sales [2] Market Dynamics - The "trade-in" policy implemented by the government has effectively countered the impact of U.S. tariffs on consumer confidence, contributing to a third consecutive month of sales growth in April [2] - The early launch of the national "trade-in" program and the implementation of subsidy policies have stimulated consumer demand, supported by local governments' consumption promotion measures and increased financial support from manufacturers [2] - April is typically a peak season for the market, and the combination of enhanced subsidies and continuous innovation from car manufacturers has further fueled consumer enthusiasm for purchasing vehicles [2] Export Performance - In the first four months of the year, China exported 1.55 million passenger cars, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%, with April exports reaching 423,000 units, including 189,000 NEVs, which constituted 44.6% of total exports [3][5] - The top export destinations for Chinese cars in Q1 included Mexico, UAE, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Belgium, Australia, and Brazil, with a stable export trend to Russia despite a decline since 2025 [5] - BYD, a leading Chinese automaker, achieved an impressive export volume of 78,700 units in April, representing a year-on-year growth of 90.8%, highlighting the significant influence of Chinese car manufacturers in emerging markets [5] Future Outlook - The passenger car market in China is expected to maintain steady growth in May, supported by ongoing consumption promotion policies and active market events [6] - Despite external pressures from U.S. tariffs potentially affecting consumer sentiment, the trend of relying on both domestic and foreign demand for market growth is becoming increasingly evident [6] - The overall outlook for China's automotive exports remains positive, with expectations that exports will exceed last year's figures, driven by the NEV sector [7]

Group 1: Overall Performance - In 2024, the overall profit of the A-share market slightly declined, with total operating revenue of 71.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of -0.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.21 trillion yuan, down 2.27% year-on-year [9][10] - In Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders in the A-share market showed a recovery, reaching 1.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.64% [10][11] Group 2: Industry Performance - The electronic industry showed significant growth, with a revenue increase of 17.4% in 2024, ranking first among industries. In Q1 2025, the revenue growth was 15.9%, ranking second [11][12] - The real estate and building materials industries faced substantial declines, with revenue growth rates of -21.0% and -12.4% respectively in 2024 [11][12] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on industries with continued growth and improving conditions in 2024 and Q1 2025, including non-bank financials, electronics, home appliances, automobiles, and agriculture [20] - In the non-bank financial sector, the new policies are expected to enhance the capital market, suggesting opportunities in large, stable brokerage firms and competitive insurance companies [21][22] - The electronics sector is expected to benefit from the rise of AI and self-sufficiency, presenting numerous investment opportunities [23][24] - The home appliance industry is driven by domestic demand for upgrades and has promising long-term export prospects [25][26] - The automotive industry is supported by policies encouraging trade-in and the growing international presence of Chinese electric vehicles [27][28] - The agriculture sector is seeing a recovery in demand for feed and veterinary products, with favorable conditions for large-scale planting investments [30][31]

在北京，邮储银行（601658）、光大银行、华夏银行、北京银行等围绕"精彩石景山·点石成金"主题信 用卡焕新升级，推出指定商户双倍积分、30元微信立减金、接送机服务和出行加油满减等一系列优惠权 益，全面提升市民消费体验。 根据文化和旅游部数据中心测算，2025年"五一"期间国内出游达3.14亿人次，游客出游总花费1802.69亿 元。商务部商务大数据监测显示，"五一"假期，汽车、家电、手机销售较快增长，餐饮、文旅等服务消 费需求旺盛，全国消费市场欣欣向荣。金融作为促消费的源头活水，与提振消费政策形成合力，在激活 假日消费热潮、助力改善民生方面不断释放正向作用，有力促进文旅产业升级。 深度链接文旅场景 激活假日消费新动能 2025年"五一"假期，国内文旅市场呈现"多点开花"态势。各地文旅部门因地制宜推出了各式各样的促消 费活动，以当地特色旅游资源为纽带，串联起从交通、住宿、餐饮到购物多样化的文旅消费新业态；金 融机构积极推出促消费政策和优惠活动，创新消费场景，改善消费条件，推动假日经济活力进一步迸 发。 中国银行结合"五一"黄金周文旅热点，投放超亿元的旅游消费补贴，全方位覆盖"吃、住、行、游、 购、娱"文旅消费 ...

乘联分会发文称，2025年4月共有22个工作日，与去年4月持平。由于"两新"政策的拉动，春节后车市热 度较高，在国家促消费政策推动下，很多省市出台并逐步落实了相应促消费政策，叠加车展等线下活动 的全面启动，4月车市走势良好。 根据月度初步乘联数据综合预估：4月全国新能源乘用车厂商批发销量114万辆，同比增长42%，环比增 长1%。 2）合资持续承压，以价换量策略收效有限，销量同比继续下滑； 3）受汇兑收益影响，汽车及乘用车财务费用率同比大幅下降。展望后市，看好二季度各省市促消费政 策和自主品牌智能化新车协同发力下，乘用车板块维持高景气，业绩水平进一步向好。 乘用车相关企业港股： 比亚迪（01211）、吉利汽车（00175）、小鹏汽车-W（09868）、蔚来-SW（09866）、长城汽车 （02333）等。 智通财经APP获悉，乘联分会秘书长崔东树发文称，4月乘用车零售175.5万辆，同比+14.5%;1-4月累计 687.2万辆，同比+7.9%。 新能源渗透率回升至51.5%，以旧换新政策及地方促消费措施提振市场。 1-4月厂商与渠道库存同步回升，反映市场信心增强。出口方面，4月新能源出口18.9万辆，同比 ...