Employment Data - In March, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 228,000, exceeding the expected 135,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in March, up from 4.1% in the previous month[1] - The private sector added 209,000 jobs, while the government sector contributed 19,000 jobs[3] Job Market Trends - By March 2025, the average monthly recruitment plan is expected to decrease to 10,000, down from 24,000 in February and 127,000 in 2021[2] - The number of job vacancies in the non-government sector fell to 6.667 million, down from over 10 million in 2022[2] - All ethnic groups saw an increase in employment rates in March[3][47] Wage Growth and Economic Indicators - The average weekly wage growth for non-farm employment was revised down to 3.2% in March, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from February[4] - The overall wage growth remains above the inflation rate, indicating real income growth despite a slowdown in wage increase momentum[4] - The service production index rose by 4.5% in March, with education and health sectors growing by 1.9%[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, indicates that there is no immediate need to lower interest rates despite uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies. The current economic conditions remain stable, and the Fed will adopt a patient approach while awaiting clearer signals regarding the economic outlook [1][2]. Economic Conditions - Powell emphasizes that the U.S. economy is currently in good shape, with a balanced and robust job market. The Fed's focus is on distinguishing genuine signals from market noise amid economic changes [1][4]. - The February non-farm payroll report showed a job growth of 151,000, slightly below market expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, the highest since November of the previous year [3]. Trade Policy Impact - The uncertainty brought about by the Trump administration's trade policies is acknowledged as a significant factor affecting economic conditions. The Fed is assessing the impact of these trade policy changes, which have heightened economic uncertainty [1][4]. - Powell notes that the rise in tariffs is pushing up prices for certain goods, which could affect inflation expectations. However, long-term inflation expectations remain stable and aligned with the Fed's targets [5]. Inflation and Interest Rates - The Fed is closely monitoring consumer and business inflation expectations, as these can become self-fulfilling. If long-term inflation expectations rise, the Fed may reconsider its stance on interest rate cuts [5]. - Powell suggests that if the tariff impacts are deemed temporary, the Fed may choose to ignore them in its monetary policy decisions [5]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock indices initially dropped but later rebounded, with the Nasdaq rising over 0.9%. Treasury yields also experienced fluctuations, indicating market volatility in response to the Fed's communication [7].