Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates a weaker-than-expected global oil demand growth and a continuous accumulation of inventories, leading to expectations of a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [1][7] - As of May 6, 2025, the average global oil demand was 103.5 million barrels per day, showing a year-on-year increase of only 280,000 barrels per day, which is nearly half of the expected growth of 550,000 barrels per day [1] - The first week of May saw a decrease of 4 million barrels in visible OECD commercial crude and refined oil inventories, although gasoline and diesel inventories fell by 6 million barrels, offset by a 2 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories [1][2] Group 2 - In the first week of May, total liquid inventories globally increased by 8 million barrels, with seven out of the past eight weeks showing increases [2] - The increase in crude oil inventories was primarily driven by a significant rise of 26 million barrels in China's crude oil stocks [2] - The overall liquid inventory has increased by 62 million barrels year-to-date until the end of April, with crude oil inventories rising by 102 million barrels and refined oil inventories decreasing by 39 million barrels [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has lowered its price forecasts for Brent crude to an average of $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $56 per barrel for 2026, reflecting a significant downward adjustment from previous expectations [5][7] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the oil market is shared among major financial institutions, with Goldman Sachs predicting a surplus of 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [7] - The recent trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have led to a temporary suspension of tariffs, which may improve market sentiment, but concerns about supply surplus continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices [8]

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on crude oil and refined oil products, released on May 9, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is dominated by the supply - surplus pressure brought by OPEC+ production increases. Although the announced June production increase by the OPEC+ meeting meets market expectations, the clearer production - increasing tendency for the future has a significant impact on market sentiment, intensifying the medium - to - long - term crude oil surplus expectation. It is expected that oil prices will operate weakly after the holiday [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Crude Oil Prices**: From April 29 to May 8, WTI crude oil price changed from $60.42 to $59.91, with a change of $1.84; BRENT crude oil price changed from $64.25 to $62.84, with a change of $1.72; DUBAI crude oil price changed from $67.78 to $63.00, with a change of $1.47 [3] - **Related Product Prices**: SC price change was - 7.20; OMAN price changed from $66.10 to $63.24, with a change of $1.76. Domestic gasoline price remained at 7800 yuan, with a change of 0 yuan; domestic gasoline - BRT changed by - 107 yuan. Japan naphtha - BRT changed by - 20.14; Singapore fuel oil 380CST changed by 0.8 [3] 2. Daily News - **Price Forecast Adjustment**: Citi lowered its short - term price forecast for Brent crude to $55 per barrel due to the potential US - Iran nuclear deal. The probability of a final agreement is estimated at 60%. If the agreement is reached, the price may fall to $50 per barrel; otherwise, it may rise to $70 per barrel or higher [3] - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's crude oil daily production in April decreased by 30,000 barrels to 26.6 million barrels per day compared to March [4] - **Company Decision**: ConocoPhillips cut its spending forecast by 3.5% to $12.45 billion due to falling oil prices while keeping its production forecast unchanged. WTI crude has fallen about 18% this year and is still below $60 [4] - **Sanctions**: The US Treasury added two individuals, several entities, and vessels to the new round of Iran - related sanctions [4] - **Production Plan**: Kazakhstan has no plan to cut oil production in May, with a daily production of 277,000 tons, the same as in April [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Data (Week Ended May 2)**: US crude oil exports decreased by 115,000 barrels per day to 4.006 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels to 13.367 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.032 million barrels to 438 million barrels, a 0.46% decrease; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 580,000 barrels to 399.1 million barrels, a 0.15% increase; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 558,000 barrels per day to 6.056 million barrels per day. EIA gasoline inventory was 188,000 barrels (expected - 1.6 million barrels, previous value - 4.003 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventory was - 1.107 million barrels (expected - 1.271 million barrels, previous value 0.937 million barrels) [5] - **China Market**: From April 24, the main refinery operating rate generally decreased, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate rebounded. China's gasoline production decreased, and diesel production increased. The production and sales rate of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased and exceeded the balance. Gasoline and diesel prices dropped significantly, and middle - and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.06%, and diesel inventory decreased by 0.69%. The comprehensive profit of main refineries and local refineries declined [6] 4. Weekly Views - **Saudi Policy Change**: Saudi Arabia is reluctant to further cut supply to support the oil market and can handle long - term low oil prices, indicating a possible shift towards increasing production and expanding market share [6] - **OPEC+ Production Plan**: At the OPEC+ meeting on May 3, eight participating countries announced a production increase of 414,000 barrels per day in June. Considering compensation for production cuts, the actual increase in June may be 359,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ is preparing to accelerate oil production increases before October and may gradually cancel the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day before November if the production cut situation of member countries does not improve [6]

OPEC+声明称，此次增产是基于当前"健康市场基础"的调整，但未来增产节奏可能根据市场状况变化 暂停或逆转。根据声明，沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼将 共同参与本轮增产。 在当前全球经济贸易环境复杂多变的背景下，增产决定令市场对原油供应过剩风险的担忧情绪增强，可 能引发国际原油市场潜在的价格战。 李彦指出，此前OPEC+的原定增产计划是从2025年4月开始，至2026年9月为止，增产总规模约220万桶/ 日，平均到每个月大约是12万桶/日的增产量，属于相对温和的增产力度。而目前5-7月大概率都将是 41.1万桶/日的增产力度，若后续月份均维持此增产幅度，则增产最快在今年9月即可完成，较OPEC+的 原定增产计划提前整整一年。 OPEC+除增产计划外，部分产油国的补偿性减产也在推进，补偿性减产从2025年3月开始，至2026年6 月为止，分月来看，补偿性减产力度在18.9万桶/日至43.5万桶/日，但市场担忧这一举措成为一纸空 文，也可能是目前OPEC+增产加速的一个原因。 "五一"假期期间，国际油价持续下跌。截至当地时间5月5日收盘，纽约商品交易所6月交货的轻质原油 期货价 ...

供过于求担忧加剧，市场前景扑朔迷离 沙特阿拉伯主导的 OPEC+ 联盟周六决定大幅增产。这一决定令市场措手不及，原油期货价格应声下跌。 周一，美国原油期货价格大跌4.27%，至每桶56.30美元。全球基准布伦特原油下跌2.39美元至每桶59.09美元。今年以来，油价已累计下跌超过 20%。 OPEC+ 突然宣布大幅增产，导致原油期货价格应声下跌，华尔街各大投行纷纷下调油价预测。 高盛集团将今年和明年的布伦特原油价格预期分别下调了2至3美元/桶。摩根士丹利的调整幅度更大，将今年的季度价格预期下调了5美元。 ING Groep 也下调了其油价展望。 大摩预计，原油供应过剩的局面将会恶化，今年下半年，原油日供应过剩量将达到110万桶。 这意味着，2025年原油市场将面临供应过剩的风 险。 就在一个月前，OPEC+已经宣布5月增产相同数量，连续两个月的增产计划让市场承压。增产的直接原因是主要成员国的不遵守协议行为，特别 是伊拉克和哈萨克斯坦。多位OPEC+代表透露，除非各国同意减产协议，否则沙特考虑以类似的速度逐步取消其此前承诺的220万桶/日自愿减产 措施。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑 ...

WTI 6月原油期货位于56.47美元/桶附近。 【 导读】最新环球资讯来了 特朗普：计划对所有海外制作的电影征收100%的关税 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示，授权商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征收100%的关税。 国际原油期货重挫！ 5月5日，布伦特原油期货一度大跌4.6%，逼近每桶58美元；WTI原油期货跌5%，跌破56美元。截至发稿，布伦特6月原油期货位于59.49美元附近。 消息面上，OPEC+在上周六的会议上决定自6月起增产41.1万桶/日，加剧了市场对于原油供应过剩的担忧。 以色列：胡塞武装的袭击源自伊朗 将对双方进行报复 根据央视新闻，以色列总理办公室当地时间5月4日晚发表声明说，针对也门胡塞武装当天早些时候对特拉维夫的本-古里安国际机场发动导弹袭击，以色 列将对该组织及其盟友伊朗进行报复。 声明还称，也门胡塞武装的袭击"源自伊朗"，以色列将选择时间和地点对胡塞武装背后势力伊朗采取行动。 伊朗方面对此暂无回应。 当天早些时候，以总理内塔尼亚胡发布视频讲话向胡塞武装发出警告，称以色列"过去曾经打击过他们，未来也将继续打击"。以色列目前正在就此与美国 方面展开协 ...

猫哥的分析从来都充满争议，但每一次预测都极其的精准，这就是猫哥经常强调的，股市总是反人性 的，当我们看到特朗普周末疯狂豁免苹果和英伟达的时候，还有谁敢否认，当前不是历史的拐点。 中国的强硬，让特朗普真的害怕了。一旦和中国完全脱钩，那美元将购买不到世界上超过80%的商品， 那这个时候的美元又有什么价值，所谓美国是最大的甲方，其实甲方从来都是中国，只是在某些阶段， 中国需要美元作为交易的媒介，当中国不再需要美元的时候，美国霸权必然荡然无存。 今年是港股超级牛市的开始，恒指25000只是一个起点，未来涨到30000，或者进一步涨到40000也未尝 没有可能，猫哥是相信会有那么一天的。 【走势复盘】 港股今天大幅上涨的原因有以下几方面： 1、周末美国那边单方面释放了很多善意，尤其对苹果和芯片的豁免，算是给这次进行了定调，美国实 际上已经输掉了这场战，那中国资产自然重新开始东升西落。 2、港交所强势领涨，这是中国资产即将腾飞的信号。瑞银表示，若中国ADR回流，估计将为港股带来 约190亿港元的增量日均成交，相当于2026财年预测总日均成交1,420亿港元的13%。 4、随着"对等关税"后情绪的极致宣泄暂告一段落，关税博 ...