Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, particularly in the semiconductor sector, with significant capital inflow into the Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF (588750) has seen a capital inflow exceeding 64 million yuan over the past two days, despite a slight decline of 0.1% [1]. - The performance of constituent stocks within the ETF is mixed, with notable movements including a 2.32% increase in Lanke Technology and a 4.63% decrease in Chip Origin Technology [6]. Group 2: EDA Market Developments - Major EDA software companies, including Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens, have resumed services to China, which is crucial for the semiconductor design process [3]. - The global EDA market is dominated by these three companies, holding a combined market share of over 70% [3]. Group 3: Domestic EDA Industry Growth - The domestic EDA industry is expected to accelerate its development, with companies like Huada Jiutian and Gai Lun Electronics making significant advancements [4]. - The Chinese EDA market is projected to reach 4.22 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.2% from 2024 to 2028 [4]. Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Outlook - The semiconductor sector is entering an upward cycle, with a projected global sales growth rate of 17% in 2024 [5]. - The net profit of the semiconductor sector is expected to increase by 15.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with the Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF's constituent companies projected to see a net profit growth of 70% in Q1 2025 [5]. Group 5: AI and Semiconductor Demand - The rapid growth of AI is anticipated to create a second growth curve for the semiconductor industry, with major internet companies increasing their capital expenditures on AI-related chips [7]. - The global AI chip market is expected to grow significantly, reaching over $400 billion by 2027 [7]. Group 6: Domestic Equipment Replacement - The trend of domestic equipment replacement in the semiconductor industry is gaining momentum, with local equipment manufacturers increasing their market share from 7% in 2020 to an estimated 19% in 2024 [4]. - The average validation cycle for domestic semiconductor equipment is expected to decrease from 24 months to 14 months by 2024 [4].

1、工业机器人：减速器最大的下游应用场景。据睿工业，2024年我国市场用于工业机器人的精密减速 器出货量约为109.7万台。从长期来看，工业机器人向智能化与柔性化方向升级，以及国产技术在高端 应用场景(如汽车制造等)中的不断突破，将持续推动精密减速器市场实现稳步增长。 华创证券发布研报称，精密减速器应用空间广阔，核心技术壁垒高筑，下游产业驱动其市场高速增长。 国内厂商有望通过多年产业、技术积累和高性价比，加速导入核心客户，实现国产替代。给予减速器行 业"推荐"评级。重点关注三大类布局厂商。 华创证券主要观点如下： 精密减速器：匹配转速、传递转矩的核心传动元件 精密减速器种类较多，包括谐波减速器、RV减速器、精密行星减速器等。谐波、RV、行星减速器具有 不同的特点，适用于不同的应用场景。谐波减速器具有单级传动比大、体积小、质量小、运动精度高并 能在密闭空间和介质辐射的工况下正常工作的优点，使其在机器人小臂、腕部、手部等部件具有较强优 势。行星减速器结构相对简单，体积相对较小，单级传动比范围相对有限，适用于机器人的下肢。RV 减速器传动比范围大、精度较为稳定、疲劳强度较高，并具有更高的刚性和扭矩承载能力，在机器人 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 "人形机器人的 Optimus 时刻"系列（十一） 推荐（维持） 精密减速器：群雄逐鹿，新的篇章 三大行业共振，减速器迎来全新机遇。 1、工业机器人：减速器最大的下游应用场景。据睿工业，2024年我国市场用 于工业机器人的精密减速器出货量约为109.7万台。从长期来看，工业机器人 向智能化与柔性化方向升级，以及国产技术在高端应用场景（如汽车制造等） 中的不断突破，将持续推动精密减速器市场实现稳步增长。 2、工业母机：减速器最核心的下游应用场景。当前我国高端机床的核心零部 件主要依赖日本及德国品牌，国产零部件使用率较低。从长远看，实现中高端 机床零部件的国产化率提升是实现自主可控关键。我们拆解各类型机床对应减 速器配置数量，测算 2024 年我国机床领域减速器总需求量为 59.8 万台。 3、人形机器人：减速器最潜力的下游应用场景。目前人形机器人领域主流的 减速器配置方案为"谐波减速器+行星减速器"的组合。特斯拉方案单Optimus 需要 16个谐波减速器，对应价值量在 2万元左右；国产全旋转模组方案，单 台机器人减速器价值量约为 3 万元左右。 三大类别看目前国产减速器厂商布 ...

今日早盘，A股整体小幅震荡上扬，上证指数创出年内新高，深证成指创3个月来新高，创业板指、科创 50、沪深300等也微幅飘红，北证50则微幅飘绿，市场成交继续呈现萎缩的趋势。 盘面上，消费电子、航天装备、纺织制造、创新药等板块涨幅居前，渔业、地面兵装、工程机械、可控 核聚变等板块跌幅居前。 元器件、AI手机、PC、苹果概念、无线耳机等消费电子细分领域也放量上攻，博敏电子（603936）、大 为股份（002213）、金安国纪（002636）等强势涨停。 据供应链消息，苹果的折叠iPhone已于6月进入P1（Prototype 1）原型开发阶段，后续会有P2和P3阶段， 预计2025年底有机会走完Prototype的开发流程。 消费电子放量上攻 消费电子概念早间放量高开高走，板块指数涨逾4%，创3个月来新高，半日成交超昨日全天成交。朝阳科 技（002981）、新亚电子（605277）均直线拉涨停，硕贝德（300322）、工业富联（601138）、创益通 （300991）、蓝思科技（300433）等涨幅居前。 在P1到P3阶段，供应链会进行小量试产，再交由iPhone主力组装厂鸿海、和硕进行组装，并检查生产与 产品良 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese power semiconductor market exhibits a pyramid structure, with international large semiconductor companies in the first tier, domestic leading companies with IDM capabilities in the second tier, and specialized manufacturing companies in the third tier [1][6]. Market Share - In 2024, the market share of domestic companies in the Chinese power semiconductor industry shows that Wentai Technology exceeds 10%, Silan Micro exceeds 5%, and Huazhong Micro, Yangjie Technology, and Zhenhua Technology exceed 3%. Companies like Sinda Semiconductor, Jiejie Microelectronics, Huami Electronics, and Xinjie Energy have market shares above 1%, while others are below 1% [5]. Market Concentration - The concentration ratios for the Chinese power semiconductor industry in 2024 are CR3 at 25%, CR5 at 31.3%, and CR10 at 37.5%, indicating a competitive market with many participants. Although leading companies hold significant shares, the advantages are not pronounced, allowing opportunities for smaller firms [6]. Strategic Layout - Key companies like Times Electric and BYD Semiconductor have effectively implemented integrated strategies, particularly in the rail transit and automotive sectors, enhancing their influence in the supply chain. Sinda Semiconductor focuses on upstream raw materials, investing 229 million yuan in a silicon carbide module project. Huazhong Micro's acquisition of Runxin Microelectronics in 2022 bolsters its capabilities in GaN power devices [10][11]. Competitive Landscape - Analyzing the competitive state through Porter's Five Forces model reveals that the upstream supply capability is limited with high customization, giving suppliers strong bargaining power. The demand for power semiconductors is substantial, but buyers have weak bargaining power. The industry is attractive for potential entrants, though high barriers exist in terms of capital, technology, and talent. The threat from substitutes is low, and competition among existing players is moderate [14].

研报金选 金选导读 1、存储｜从 DDR4 减产到 AI 算力狂潮！存储市场上演 "供需双杀"，国产替代黑马全名单来 了 2、化工｜从产能过剩到精准减产！巨头联手"救市"，产能缩水340万吨，龙头企业要逆袭？ 近期存储供给收缩催化短周期价格走强，长期来看AI高景气有望推动中长期需求向上。国产 替代方面，企业级存储国产化大势所趋，国内厂商针对企业级闪存模组内存模组国产化均有 一定进展，建议关注：...... 点此解锁DDR4合约价季涨幅预测 研报观点： 1、存储｜从 DDR4 减产到 AI 算力狂潮！存储市场上演 "供需双杀"，国产替代黑马全名单来了 ①供给收缩催化短周期价格走强，AI高景气推动中长期需求向上...... ②企业级存储国产化大势所趋，国产厂商加速突围...... 点此解锁研报全文及推荐详情 2、化工｜从产能过剩到精准减产！巨头联手"救市"，产能缩水340万吨，龙头企业要逆袭？ 点此解锁研报全文及推荐详情 618超级回归福利：年单8折起，直降700元！ 还送第一财经智享会员季卡权益。 年内最大优惠来袭，后无来者！ 年单优惠即将结束，错过这次再等一年！ 注：年单限一人一单，同一手机号无法叠加。 近期 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 3 日 今日焦点 | 北方华创 | | 002371 CH | | --- | --- | --- | | 国产半导体设备龙头：成长性与韧性兼备，首 | | 评级: 买入 | | 予买入 | | | | 收盘价: 人民币 443.30 | 目标价: 人民币 530.00 | 潜在涨幅: +19.6% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 半导体行业国产替代最核心的环节：正如之前主题报告中所提到的，我 们看好国产半导体设备行业前景，并关注龙头公司北方华创。 下游需求持续旺盛，国产设备市占率提升：中国内地半导体设备市场在 全球市场的份额从 2015 年的 13%升至 2024 年的 42%。在这个过程中， 北方华创业绩在上行周期中表现出高成长性，在下行周期中韧性较强。 与市场一致预测同比下降不同，我们预测中国内地 2025 年市场将保持增 长，达 500 亿美元。进口设备占比呈下降趋势，我们估算从 2015 年的 91.8%到 2024 年的 67.6%。我们预测北方华创 2025 年在内地半导体设备 市场 ...

在41个工业大类行业中，有23个行业利润同比增长，占比近六成。与一季度相比，保持基本稳定。其 中，装备制造业和高技术制造业利润增长进一步提速，1—4月份，装备制造业和高技术制造业利润同比 分别增长11.2%和9.0%，较1—3月份加快4.8个百分点和5.5个百分点。 川财证券首席经济学家陈雳对证券时报记者表示，政策显效叠加产业升级带动1—4月工业企业利润同比 增速进一步回升。国产替代与产业升级趋势持续，高技术、高附加值的产业和产品成为经济增长新引 擎，特别是机器人、人工智能、半导体与芯片等重点战略领域实现较快发展，科研创新与成果市场化提 速带动企业盈利能力不断提升。 数据显示，多个与"人工智能+"行动、智能化产品助力数智化转型相关行业利润实现了同比翻倍及以上 的增长，如半导体器件专用设备制造业利润同比增长105.1%，智能车载设备制造、智能无人飞行器制 造行业利润分别增长177.4%、167.9%。 证券时报记者江聃 国家统计局5月27日发布的数据显示，1—4月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同 比增长1.4%，其中4月份规模以上工业企业利润同比增长3.0%。 国家统计局工业司统计师于 ...

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, 7 semiconductor companies that are still in the red managed to go public, which is a significant shift from the traditional capital market preference for profitable companies [1][2] - The introduction of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2019 broke the previous profit requirement for IPOs, allowing companies with strong technology and promising sectors to list even without profits [2][3] - On February 17, 2023, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved a third set of listing standards for the ChiNext board, enabling unprofitable companies with a projected market value of at least 5 billion yuan and recent revenue of at least 300 million yuan to go public [2] Group 2 - The 7 unprofitable companies are engaged in various high-tech fields, each facing significant financial challenges while pursuing innovation [5] - Moer Thread and Muxi Co. are focused on the GPU sector, requiring substantial investment for architecture innovation to compete with established players like NVIDIA [6] - Dapu Microelectronics specializes in storage control chips, aiming to support the domestic storage chip market amid rapid technological changes [7] - Shiya Technology is developing silicon-based OLED display chips for AR/VR devices, facing high costs in R&D and production [8] - Zhaoxin Integrated is tackling the CPU market, aiming to create a complete domestic computing platform despite significant challenges [9] - Shanghai Super Silicon is producing high-purity silicon wafers, a critical component in chip manufacturing, requiring extensive investment [10] - Angrui Micro focuses on RF front-end chips for 5G communication, needing innovation to compete in a complex market [11] Group 3 - The ability of these 7 companies to go public indicates government support for the semiconductor industry, highlighting the need for capital market involvement in achieving self-sufficiency in high-end chips and critical materials [12]

摩尔线程、沐曦股份：死磕 GPU 的难兄难弟 这俩兄弟都扎在 GPU 赛道，堪称行业 " 吞金兽 " 。现在 AI 大火，英伟达的 A100 、 H100 几乎垄断市 场，但咱们国产 GPU 想分杯羹，就得砸钱搞架构创新。像摩尔线程的 MTTS80 芯片，从流片到优化， 每一步都是千万级的投入；沐曦更是在高性能计算领域猛追，他们的产品要适配云计算、科学计算场 景，不仅得突破技术瓶颈，还得搭建生态，不亏才怪。 2025年上半年，177 家 IPO 企业里，竟然冒出 7 家还在亏钱的半导体公司。搁以前，这种事想都不敢 想，毕竟资本市场向来 " 嫌贫爱富 " ，但现在这事儿真就发生了。 关于这7家创始人情况、营收情况、申报相关就不再一一阐述，之前的文章都有涉及。 | 从 " 盈利硬指标 " 到 " 科创板破冰 " 以前 A 股 IPO 那可是卡着净利润红线，像咱们这行烧钱搞研发的主儿，没有三五年盈利根本别想上 市。直到 2019 年科创板杀出来，直接打破规矩 ——" 没盈利？只要技术够硬、赛道够热，照样能上市 融资！ " 这就好比给咱们半导体行业开了绿色通道。后来创业板、北交所也跟着放宽，现在亏损企业上 市不再是天 ...