Gold - The U.S. judge has blocked the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, while President Trump has quickly appealed the decision. The Fed nominee Milan has passed the Senate committee test and is expected to be confirmed by the full Senate next Monday [2] - The U.S. August CPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.9%, meeting market expectations. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 rose to 263,000, reaching a nearly four-year high [2] - Analyst Chen Yu believes that U.S. inflation is relatively controllable, and the job market is softening, leading to optimistic rate cut expectations. With the Fed's rate cut expectations and doubts about its independence, the U.S. dollar index is likely to remain weak, which is favorable for gold prices [2] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows that the market has maintained a relatively high adjustment level in recent trading days, with short-term caution against pullback risks. The 4-hour chart indicates a focus on testing the support level at $3,610 [2] Oil - Recent data from the API and EIA show an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending September 5, with total crude and refined oil inventories reaching the largest increase since 2023, indicating the end of the U.S. oil consumption peak season and entering a phase of inventory accumulation [4] - U.S. crude oil production is at 13.495 million barrels per day, maintaining a slight growth trend for about two months [4] - The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that U.S. crude oil production will remain stable in the near term and that exports to Europe will increase, which may negatively impact oil prices. OPEC's production increase will slow down in October, but the overall direction of increased supply will not change, posing a significant obstacle to rising oil prices [5] - On the technical side, the daily chart shows a significant decline in the previous trading day, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating further downside risks for oil prices. The 4-hour chart shows oil prices returning below the 20-day moving average, with short-term bearish sentiment. Key resistance is at $63, while support is at $60 [5] Copper - The daily chart indicates that after a previous pullback, the market found support at the 20-day moving average, and in recent trading days, the market has continued to rebound and closed with bullish candles, suggesting further upward opportunities. Short-term focus is on the support level at $4.56 [7] Nikkei 225 - The daily chart shows a continuation of strong performance, with the previous trading day closing higher with bullish candles, indicating potential for further upward movement. The 4-hour chart shows the market moving higher along the 20-day moving average, with short-term focus on the support level at 44,180 [8]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The August CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly up from the previous value of 2.7% [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 3.1% year-on-year, consistent with expectations [3] - The super core CPI, which excludes housing and energy service prices, showed a slowdown in growth to 3.52% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Employment Data - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 reached 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of 235,000 [5][6] - The August non-farm payrolls report indicated a mere increase of 22,000 jobs, continuing a trend of significantly slowed job growth [6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the release of the CPI and employment data, traders adjusted their bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising to 88.1% [5][6] - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, while U.S. Treasury yields dropped, with the 10-year yield dipping below 4% for the first time since April [9] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the inflation report indicates persistent inflation in the U.S., with ongoing service cost increases potentially exerting lasting pressure on overall inflation [5] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is noted, with a slow transmission effect observed [11]

Economic Overview - US stocks paused as Wall Street assessed the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased over 0.1%, while the S&P 500 fell below the flat line, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.1% [1] Labor Market Insights - Recent jobs data indicated labor market weakness, with just over 20,000 jobs added last month and weekly initial jobless claims reaching a near four-year high [2] Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Inflation remains persistent, with consumer prices rising, influenced by President Trump's tariffs [3] - Despite inflation concerns, investors anticipate the Fed will cut rates, with a more than 90% chance of a quarter-point cut in the upcoming meeting [4] - Consumer sentiment is expected to show steady spending, but Americans are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with their purchasing power and the job market [4] Stock Market Performance - All three major stock indexes are on track for weekly gains exceeding 1.4%, with the Dow aiming for its first win in three weeks after surpassing 46,000 for the first time [5]

People shop at a supermarket on 18 July 2025 in Rockville, Maryland.Photograph: China News Service/Getty Images Inflation rose slightly in August as companies continued to push the cost of tariffs onto consumers. The newest update to the consumer price index (CPI), which measures a basket of goods and services, showed that prices increased 2.9% over the last year – the highest since January. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food costs, stayed stable at 3.1% after going up in July. Despite this slight u ...

Core Insights - The "Agent Economy" era will lead to changes in human organizational structure and employment dynamics [1] - Business growth in the AI era will focus on increasing computational power (GPU) rather than human resources [1] - The emergence of "super individuals" due to technological changes poses structural unemployment risks [1] - There is a need to rethink future social structures and tax systems, as well as the opportunities provided to the job market [1]

Labor Market and Federal Reserve - The August jobs report showed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, leading to an unemployment rate of 4.3%, the highest in over a year [1] - The New York Fed's August Survey indicated a historical low in worker confidence, with a 44.9% probability of finding another job if current employment is lost [1][2] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 100% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17, with 88.2% of traders expecting a 25 basis point cut and 11.8% anticipating a 50 basis point cut [1][3] Kraft-Heinz Spinoff - Kraft-Heinz announced a spinoff into two independent companies, causing an initial stock decline of 7%, which settled at a 2.4% drop by market close [3][4] - Warren Buffett, a significant stakeholder with a 27.5% stake, expressed skepticism about the merger's success and the effectiveness of the spinoff [4] - The spinoff is notable as it is the only one in Q3 2023, contributing to a total of 12 spinoffs for the year, compared to a peak of 39 in 2021 [5] Consumer Behavior and Earnings Reports - Kroger is performing well, with a focus on value-driven consumers, expecting a year-over-year earnings growth of 6% for Q2 [8] - Restoration Hardware is experiencing resilience in the home goods market, with higher-income consumers continuing to invest in their homes despite economic headwinds [9] - Potential tariff headwinds from investigations into furniture imports could impact companies like Restoration Hardware, Williams Sonoma, and Wayfair [10] Market Outlook - Upcoming economic indicators, spinoffs, and corporate earnings reports are expected to introduce market volatility, with significant attention on the inflation (CPI) report [6][11]

Group 1 - The current employment market is experiencing significant changes, with job number revisions and rate cuts being prominent topics of discussion [1] - The company utilizes BLS JOLTS data but questions its accuracy, preferring insights from customer feedback and order volumes [1] - Customer feedback and order volumes indicate a different narrative compared to the mainstream media and JOLTS data [1]

Group 1 - The current employment market is experiencing significant changes, with job number revisions and rate cuts being prominent topics of discussion [1] - The company utilizes BLS JOLTS data but questions its accuracy, preferring insights from customer feedback and order volumes [1] - Customer feedback and order volumes indicate a different narrative compared to the mainstream media and JOLTS data [1]

Core Insights - The market's focus has shifted from inflation data to the health of the employment market, with traders expecting only a mild 0.7% volatility in the S&P 500 index following the CPI data release [1][2] - Wall Street anticipates that weak employment data will lead the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with further cuts expected in October and December [1][2] - A significantly higher-than-expected inflation report could disrupt the Fed's future rate-cutting plans, although it is not expected to impact the September decision [1][3] Market Reactions to CPI Data - The consensus among economists is for the core CPI to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [3] - If the core CPI increases between 0.3% and 0.35%, the S&P 500 could fluctuate between a decline of 0.25% and an increase of 0.5% [3] - A core CPI increase below 0.25% could lead to a rise of 1.25% to 1.75% in the S&P 500, while an increase above 0.4% could result in a decline of up to 2% [3] Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a strong annualized GDP growth rate of 3% for Q3, slightly down from 3.3% in Q2 [4] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains below the critical level of 20, indicating low market panic, while the Citi Economic Surprise Index is at its highest level since January [5] - Strong economic data could complicate the Fed's inflation control efforts, potentially leading to prolonged high interest rates [5] Employment Market as a Deciding Factor - The direction of the market will ultimately depend on the labor market, with expectations that a rate cut in October would indicate continued pressure on labor data and no unexpected inflation rise [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights key economic events and data releases for the week of September 8-14, focusing on China’s CPI, import/export data, and the U.S. CPI and PPI data, as well as significant corporate earnings reports from Oracle and Adobe [2][4][22]. Economic Data - China’s August import and export data will be released, with previous figures showing a 4.1% increase in imports and a 7.2% increase in exports in July [13]. - The U.S. will release its August CPI report on September 11, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with expectations of a cooling job market impacting inflation [4][8]. - China’s August CPI is expected to drop to -0.4% due to high base effects and weak food prices, while PPI is also anticipated to show weakness [9][11]. Corporate Earnings - Oracle is set to release its earnings report on September 10, with strong future guidance expected, particularly in cloud infrastructure revenue, projected to grow over 70% by FY2026 [22]. - Adobe will also report earnings during this week, although specific details were not provided [2]. Political Events - In Japan, the deadline for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to submit applications for an early leadership election is September 8, which could impact the yen depending on the outcome [20]. - France is facing a critical trust vote regarding its budget, which could lead to political instability and economic repercussions if the government fails to secure support [21]. Central Bank Decisions - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its deposit rate at 2% during its upcoming meeting, reflecting a cautious approach amid ongoing trade disputes [14][15].