摘要今日周二（8月19日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3339.10美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 3333.03美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%，最高上探3339.10美元/盎司，最低触及3325.89美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周二（8月19日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3339.10美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报3333.03 美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%，最高上探3339.10美元/盎司，最低触及3325.89美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短 线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储正着力应对一项分歧显著的难题，当下市场已普遍预期下月将降息25个基点，而美国总统特朗普 亦力促主席鲍威尔下调利率。 美联储官员始终紧盯关税对通胀的潜在效应。然而，近期消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数的数据表 明，因7月服务通胀意外攀升，关税的影响似乎微乎其微。鉴于服务业在美国经济体中占据主导地位， 而商品仅占GDP的11%，此现象引发部分官员警觉。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比上周发出警示：若后续报 告持续显示服务通胀上扬，将成为重大隐患。 其他多位地方联储主席对通胀的忧虑更为深切，包括堪萨斯城的杰夫·施密德、克利夫 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, particularly following weak employment data in July, which has heightened market expectations for a rate reduction in September [1][2][3] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has seen a significant decline, dropping to approximately 3.75%, which is just above its lowest levels in recent months, indicating a market shift towards aggressive rate cut bets [1][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to align with market expectations during his speech at the Jackson Hole conference, with a strong likelihood of at least a 25 basis point cut in September, as market participants are betting on a 85% chance of this outcome [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming employment report on September 5 will play a crucial role in determining the Fed's decision, with expectations that a weak report would support a 25 basis point cut [4] - Powell's tenure has been marked by a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, often waiting for clearer economic signals before making decisions, which has been evident in his past speeches at the Jackson Hole conference [5][6] - Despite external pressures, Powell has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation before making policy adjustments, which has led to a delayed response in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [7]

Grouping 1 - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference in 2025 will focus on the labor market amidst transformation, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell likely addressing inflation, rising producer prices, and a weak job market [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-over-month in July, with service prices increasing by 1.1%, marking the largest increase since March 2022 [1][2] - Companies like Nike and Adidas are raising prices to offset additional tariff-related costs, indicating a trend among large retailers to pass on costs to consumers [4] Grouping 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-over-month in July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, driven by rising energy service prices [5] - The energy sector has seen significant price fluctuations, with companies like Talen Energy and Vistra Energy experiencing substantial year-to-date price increases [5] - The employment market remains weak, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, and adjustments to previous employment data leading to concerns about future job reports [8][9] Grouping 3 - Powell may discuss the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market, as major tech companies have made significant layoffs while investing heavily in AI [12] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, which could benefit small-cap stocks most affected by tariffs [13]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 去年怀俄明州的"惊喜" 这样的背景使得杰克逊霍尔会议备受关注。三年前，鲍威尔曾警告称抗击通胀将给家庭和企业带来"痛 苦"，此番言论推高了短期美债收益率。 在去年的研讨会上，他则暗示美联储已准备好从二十年来的高点下调借贷成本。由于这番言论证实了此 前押注降息的交易员们的判断，两年期美债收益率当日应声大跌。当年9月，美联储实施了一系列降息 中的首次行动，并采取了50个基点的大幅降息。 音频由扣子空间生成 随着美联储主席鲍威尔将有机会就经济发表看法，债券交易员关于美联储准备降息的巨大押注，将在本 周迎来关键时刻。 鲍威尔将于本周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年度会议上发表演讲，这为美债市场开启了一个成 败在此一举的关键阶段。市场认为，下个月降息25个基点几乎是板上钉钉，并且在年底前至少还会再降 息一次。近年来，他曾利用这一场合发表过足以搅动市场的政策声明，而这一次的背景可能同样至关重 要。 交易员们相信，疲软的就业市场已为这位美联储主席采取更鸽派的基调打开了大门，尽管出人意料的热 门通胀数据让一些经济学家有所犹豫。 目前，投资者预计鲍威尔不会颠覆市场对下个月降息的押注，但可能 ...

Core Insights - The job market for new graduates, particularly in computer science, is increasingly challenging due to the rise of AI and a preference for "plug-and-play" employees, leading to a significant reduction in entry-level positions [5][9][11] Group 1: Employment Challenges - Kenneth Kang, a computer science graduate with a near-perfect GPA, applied for over 2500 jobs but only received 10 interview opportunities, highlighting the harsh reality faced by many graduates [3][9] - The overall employment landscape is grim, with California's unemployment rate rising to 5.5%, the highest in the U.S., driven by a weak tech sector and a surplus of job seekers [6][8] - The tech industry has seen a more than 50% decrease in hiring for entry-level positions since 2019, with the proportion of new graduates in large tech companies dropping from 15% to 7% [9][12] Group 2: Impact of AI on Job Market - AI is automating entry-level tasks, further diminishing the availability of these positions and creating a skills gap as companies seek more experienced candidates [5][11] - The number of entry-level job postings in traditional sectors decreased by approximately 15% last year, and the conversion rate from internships to full-time positions has also declined [11][12] - AI has been identified as a major factor in job market contraction, with over 10,000 AI-related positions cut in the first seven months of 2025 [12] Group 3: Future Implications - The reduction of entry-level roles may lead to a talent pipeline disruption, affecting the future leadership and skill development within companies [11][12] - Experts express concern that companies focusing solely on immediate efficiency may overlook the long-term value of nurturing future talent [12][14] - There is a call for societal support in reskilling individuals to adapt to the changing job landscape influenced by AI [13][14]

尽管如此，鲍威尔在即将到来的杰克逊霍尔会议上，似乎并不打算轻易给出明确的政策转向信号。部分原因在于，市场对于9月降息的预期并非毫无争议。 一方面，尽管整体通胀率有所回落，但仍未稳定降至美联储设定的2%目标之下，特别是近期关税措施对进口商品价格的抬升作用，正逐步显现，为通胀前 景增添了不确定性。另一方面，经济学家们正就近期就业市场表现展开激烈辩论：就业增长放缓，究竟是反映了企业对劳动力需求的减弱，还是劳动力供应 端的限制所致？若问题根源在于后者，那么进一步降息非但不能有效提振就业，反而可能加剧通胀压力，违背美联储的双重使命——促进就业最大化与保持 价格稳定。 牛津经济研究院的副首席美国经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯，在其最新发布的研究报告中指出："关税政策的影响正以不均衡的方式渗透至经济各个层面，预计在 未来几个月内，将继续推高通胀水平。对于政策制定者而言，从更为持久的通胀压力中剥离出由关税引起的暂时性波动，将是一项极具挑战性的任务。"基 于这一判断，皮尔斯认为，除非有确凿证据显示经济活动显著放缓，特别是8月份的就业报告出现大幅下滑，否则美联储可能会选择按兵不动，至少维持利 率不变直至12月份的会议。 杰克逊霍尔央行会 ...

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole meeting is highly anticipated, with Powell expected to focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework review rather than revealing the September interest rate decision [1][3] - Market expectations for a rate cut have driven stock prices up, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors, but any contrary signals from Powell could lead to market volatility [3][4] - Powell faces significant political pressure from the Trump administration, which has criticized his reluctance to cut rates and is reportedly considering potential replacements [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Funds futures market indicates a probability of over 92% for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut this year [4] - Recent stock price increases among major homebuilders, such as PulteGroup and Lennar, have outpaced the S&P 500 index, reflecting strong market confidence in a forthcoming rate cut [4][5] - However, this confidence has made the market vulnerable to sell-offs if Powell signals a more hawkish stance than anticipated [5] Group 3 - Economic data presents a mixed picture, with persistent inflation pressures indicated by a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core CPI and a 0.9% rise in the PPI, the largest monthly increase in over three years [7] - Conversely, the labor market shows signs of cooling, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and significant downward revisions to previous months' data, leading to internal disagreements within the FOMC regarding rate cuts [7][6] - Powell's upcoming speech is seen as a critical moment to assert the Fed's independence and establish long-term guiding principles for monetary policy [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, growing at an unprecedented rate, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and future economic implications [1][2][4]. Debt Growth and Fiscal Pressure - The U.S. national debt reached $37 trillion as of August 12, 2024, a significant increase from $36 trillion just months prior, highlighting a rapid acceleration in borrowing [3][4]. - The Peterson Foundation noted that the speed of debt accumulation is faster than ever, with the debt increasing by $1 trillion in approximately 173 days at the current daily growth rate [4]. - The debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion under the "Big and Beautiful" act, which has contributed to a rapid increase in debt levels [4][8]. Impact on Households and Credit Ratings - If the national debt were distributed among U.S. households, each would owe approximately $280,000, with individuals facing a debt burden of about $108,000 [2]. - The rising debt levels have led to a decline in trust in U.S. fiscal management, with major credit rating agencies downgrading the U.S. credit rating due to deteriorating fiscal conditions [5]. Fiscal Structure and Spending - Mandatory spending on Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the national debt has surged from 34% of total federal spending in 1965 to 73% in 2024, limiting discretionary spending [6][8]. - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 26.5% of federal revenue [8]. Revenue Challenges and Tax Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" act is expected to reduce tax revenue by approximately $220 billion in the 2025 fiscal year, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [8][9]. - Despite a significant increase in customs revenue due to tariff policies, the overall impact on reducing the national debt is considered minimal compared to rising healthcare costs [9][10]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - There is a notable divide within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, with some members advocating for rate cuts to alleviate debt burdens while others express concerns about inflation [11][12]. - Recent economic data has fueled expectations for potential interest rate cuts, with market predictions indicating a high probability of rate reductions in the coming months [14].

在下周于怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度会议和9月份的关键政策会议前，美联储的决策者们将面临一 个首要和核心的问题：当前对经济来说，哪个问题更大：是顽固的通胀还是放缓的劳动力市场？ 自4月份以来疲软的就业增长已促使一些官员倾向于支持最早在下个月就下调美联储的关键利率，但其 他美联储决策者的演讲和评论显示，通胀仍然是一个问题。 这可能使得美联储在9月16-17日会议上的最终举措成为一个"势均力敌"的决定。在此之前，还有一份就 业报告和一份通胀报告将发布，两者都很可能对是否降息的决定产生重大影响。这种不确定性也意味 着，美联储主席鲍威尔下周五在杰克逊霍尔的演讲将受到投资者的密切关注，以寻找关于下一步行动的 任何线索。 如果美联储官员更担心失业率将开始上升、经济步履蹒跚，他们就更有可能降低利率以降低借贷成本并 刺激借贷和支出。然而，如果他们越来越担心随着关税波及全球供应链，通胀将保持高位或恶化，他们 将更倾向于将借贷成本维持在高位，以冷却经济并降低物价。目前该利率为4.3%。 华尔街投资者目前相当肯定，美联储将在9月份降低利率，根据芝加哥商品交易所的"美联储观察"工 具，期货价格显示降息的可能性高达93%。 AI播客： ...

Market Insights - President Trump signed an executive order to ease commercial space regulations, aiming to simplify the launch permit environmental review process and eliminate "outdated, redundant, or overly restrictive" regulations on spacecraft [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen clarified that there was no pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, attempting to downplay her previous comments about a potential series of rate cuts [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called for caution in rate cuts until inflation is under control [1] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 224,000, a decrease of 3,000, remaining at the lowest level since November 2021 [2] - Continuing claims slightly decreased to 1.953 million, still hovering at high levels since 2021 [2] Inflation Metrics - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 3.3% year-over-year and increased by 0.9% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly gain since June 2022 and exceeding expectations [3] Economic Growth - The UK's GDP for Q2 grew by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter and 0.4% in June, both surpassing expectations and indicating a strengthening economic recovery [4] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.02% to 44,911.26 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.03% to 6,468.54 points, marking three consecutive days of record closing highs [6] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.76% to $3,382.30 per ounce, and silver futures dropped by 1.47% to $38.04 per ounce [7] Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil futures increased by 2.04% to $63.93 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.92% to $66.89 per barrel [8] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.58 basis points to 3.724%, while the 10-year yield increased by 5.61 basis points to 4.287% [8]