美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周五晚10点在杰克逊霍尔年度经济研讨会上发表讲话。当前，美联储正 面临美国纵容特朗普前所未有的政治压力，但喜忧参半的经济数据可能迫使鲍威尔采取折中立场，导致 关键问题悬而未决。 在特朗普的施压下，投资者也对美联储下月降息充满期待。此前两位美联储理事已在最近一次政策会议 上推动降息，理由是劳动力市场疲软速度可能快于整体就业数据显示的情况。 然而，通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，且随着特朗普进口关税成本传导至零售价格，通胀预期可能进 一步上升。部分政策制定者认为，这种价格调整过程可能持续到明年，因此在此时降息需谨慎。 不过，波森认为降息可能是为就业市场提供"保险"，"部分原因是为了在政治上争取时间，因为如果不 降息，局势将更加紧张。但他们不会明说。" 特朗普的政治施压 随着特朗普的言行日益被视为对美联储独立性的威胁，鲍威尔和美联储所处的政治环境已成为降息叙事 中的重要组成部分——几乎任何决策都被解读为向特朗普妥协或无理对抗，而非基于事实的风险平衡。 特朗普对鲍威尔发起了猛烈的人身攻击，并要求其辞职。其政府内部有人以美联储大楼翻修成本超支为 由，鼓动"解雇"鲍威尔。但根据法律，美联储主席和 ...

Macro and Commodity Market Dynamics - China's retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year in July, with automotive retail sales declining [1] - In the U.S., retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in July, marking ten consecutive months of actual retail sales growth; however, consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in August [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated officials' concerns about inflation, with a hawkish tone, and attention is on Powell's statements at the upcoming global central bank meeting [1] Copper Market - LME copper spot discount widened, with increased copper imports as the import window opened, putting pressure on premiums [1] - Downstream demand is in the off-season, leading to a decline in operating rates; overall, macro sentiment is fluctuating with weak supply and demand, limiting the downside for copper prices [1] Aluminum Market - Similar to copper, attention is on Powell's statements; aluminum prices remain high, but domestic consumption recovery is weak, and supply is ample [1] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for electrolytic aluminum, which is pressuring aluminum prices; overall, macro sentiment is fluctuating with downstream demand under pressure [1] Zinc Market - Mixed macro signals with potential support for the non-ferrous sector from a possible Fed rate cut in September [1] - Zinc ingot production exceeded 600,000 tons in July, with continued recovery in August, expected to increase by 10,000 tons month-on-month [1] - Short-term demand is in the off-season but shows resilience; however, inventory accumulation is pressuring zinc prices, with potential risks of warehouse squeezes [1] Nickel Market - Domestic news regarding anti-competitive practices is fluctuating, with macro sentiment cooling and hawkish Fed minutes [1] - Indonesian nickel ore premiums remain stable, with increased pure nickel supply and rising social inventories, leading to price fluctuations [1] - Global nickel inventories are at high levels, with stable supply and weak demand, indicating an oversupply of primary nickel; short-term operations should focus on selling opportunities while controlling risks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound of consumer - side inflation in the US reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. Although the EU intends to promote a peace agreement among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, continuous gold purchases by global central banks may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors wait for price dips to initiate long positions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 21, 2025, the futures closing price was 775.12 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 2.44 yuan and a weekly decrease of 0.68 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,854 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 14,440. The spot closing price was 771.66 yuan/gram, and the trading volume and open interest of spot Shanghai Gold T + D also changed. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 1.78, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.46 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The futures closing price was 9162 yuan/kg, with a daily decrease of 42 yuan and a weekly decrease of 42 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 203,755 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 11,580. The spot closing price was 9144 yuan/kg, and the trading volume and open interest of spot Shanghai Silver T + D also changed. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 16, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 18 [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The futures closing price was 3383.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily decrease of 8.70 dollars and a weekly decrease of 23.50 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 11,003 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 8,184. The London gold spot price was 3364.40 dollars/ounce, and the holdings of SPDR and iShare gold ETFs also changed [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The futures closing price was 38.10 dollars/ounce, with a daily increase of 0.20 dollars and a weekly decrease of 0.45 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 6,909 compared to last week, and the open interest decreased by 18,281 [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) all changed. For example, the ratio of Shanghai futures gold to Shanghai futures silver was 84.60, with a daily increase of 0.31 and a weekly decrease of 0.85 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **US Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: The US Department of Justice pressured to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump urged her to resign. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars of mainly short - term treasury bonds in the third quarter to replenish the cash account. The usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero, which may gradually reduce the bank reserve scale. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, causing the US July PPI and core CPI annual rates to rise. The Fed's expected number of rate cuts has been reduced to September/October [1]. - **US Economic Data**: The US August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 58.3, unexpectedly reaching a three - year high. The inflation pressure increased, and the US labor market cooling was obvious. The number of initial jobless claims increased by 11,000, and the number of continued claims reached a four - year high [1]. - **Global Central Bank Policies**: The European Central Bank temporarily suspended rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2.8%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone, Germany, and France August manufacturing PMIs were all higher than expected and the previous value, so the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction after continuing to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, and the earliest may be in October [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - Due to the rebound of US consumer - side inflation reducing the Fed's expected rate - cut times and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, the downside space of precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to initiate long positions. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - The Fed's rate cut expectations have cooled, and global electrolytic copper inventories are oscillating upwards. However, due to fiscal easing in many countries around the world leading to inflation expectations, Shanghai copper prices may remain volatile. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support levels and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3] Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - For the Shanghai copper futures active contract on August 21, 2025, the closing price was 78,540, a decrease of 100 from the previous day; the trading volume was 43,058 lots, a decrease of 13,080 lots; the open interest was 128,034 lots, a decrease of 7,831 lots; and the inventory was 25,157 tons, a decrease of 66 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,800, an increase of 30 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 260, an increase of 130; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 60, unchanged; the spot premium/discount in North China was -50, an increase of 10; and the spot premium/discount in East China was 50, a decrease of 15 [2] - The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 30, an increase of 20; the spread between the first continuous and the second continuous contract was 20, unchanged; the spread between the second continuous and the first continuous contract was 10, an increase of 10 [2] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,724.5, an increase of 4 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,350 tons; the spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract was - 81.01, an increase of 9.74; the spread of the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract was - 171.62, a decrease of 5.14; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0765, a decrease of 0.01 [2] - The closing price of the COMEX copper futures active contract was 4.448, an increase of 0.02 from the previous day; the total inventory was 271,696 tons, an increase of 1,753 tons [2] Industry News - Indonesian copper concentrate exports have reached 65% of the approved quota as of mid - August, and are expected to account for 90% of the quota this year [2] - Due to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin from August 20 to September 3, freight vehicle controls have tightened market logistics, and the upcoming centralized maintenance period of upstream smelters has led to a tight supply of electrolytic copper spot in North China [2] - Codelco will lower its 2025 copper production guidance target. Due to the accident at the El Teniente copper mine, the refined copper production of this division is expected to decrease by 33,000 metric tons, and the copper sales profit will decline by $233 million. The economic loss caused by the production cut is $340 million [2] - Jianfa Shenghai plans to invest 12.15 billion yuan (Jianfa holds 51%), and the project is expected to be put into operation in May 2026, with an annual production of 600,000 tons of cathode copper and other products [2] - First Quantum has launched a $1.25 - billion expansion project at its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia [2] Industry Operation - The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China has increased compared to last week. The operating rate of China's refined copper rod (recycled copper rod) production capacity has increased (decreased) compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (decreased), and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased (increased) [3] - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) [3] - The order volume (operating rate) of China's copper enameled wire has decreased (decreased) compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (decreased) [3] - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper plate and strip has decreased (decreased) compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper plate and strip enterprises have decreased (remained flat) [3] - The operating rate of China's copper tube has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased (decreased) [3] - The operating rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have decreased (decreased) [3] Investment Strategy - Affected by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season of consumption, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decline (increase, decrease, decrease) month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper plate and strip, copper foil, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the operating rates of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decline month - on - month [3] - Domestic electrolytic copper traders have no pressure to sell and are reluctant to cut prices significantly, while downstream processing enterprises have weak demand and weak spot purchases [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, causing gold prices to fluctuate. The Shanghai - gold premium continued to widen to 1.47 yuan/gram. Attention should be paid to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting, as the interest - rate cut expectation is volatile, leading to gold price fluctuations [4]. - **Silver**: The release of details of the US - EU trade agreement led to a rebound in silver prices after a decline. PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, but the impact on silver prices was limited. The Shanghai - silver premium remained at around 400 yuan/kg. As the market awaited the central bank annual meeting and risk appetite recovered, silver prices fluctuated [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%), the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis was - 3.42 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 60 kg to 36642 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29 (spot at a discount to futures), Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 25144 kg to 1115055 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's July CPI; 14:00 Germany's Q2 GDP final value; Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (until August 23); 20:30 Canada's June retail sales; 21:00 Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins on Bloomberg TV; 22:00 Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting; 23:30 Cleveland Fed President Hammack on CNBC; Saturday: South Korean President Lee Jae - myung's visit to Japan and the ROK - Japan summit; Sunday 00:25 ECB President Lagarde and BOE Governor Bailey at a panel discussion [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logical drivers include the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the shift from inflation to recession expectations, and the continued verification of the new US government's policies, making gold prices still likely to rise [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1.43% to 609,750, the short - position volume decreased by 2.35% to 457,223, and the net position increased by 1.45% to 152,527 [31]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.50% to 1,052,297, the short - position volume decreased by 1.44% to 959,065, and the net position decreased by 2.15% to 93,232 [33]. - **ETF**: Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and silver ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level; Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and were higher than last year, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [40][41][43].

此外，美联储7月货币政策会议纪要还显示，与会者认为，如果加征关税对物价的影响长期持续，将危 及长期通胀预期的稳定性。 刘英分析说，这是美联储对美国关税政策长期影响做出的判断。 当地时间8月20日，美联储公布的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)7月货币政策会议纪要显示，部分与会者 指出，美国对全球贸易对象加征关税的政策，将持续影响美国消费和服务价格。 与此同时，与会者指出，迄今为止的证据表明，外国出口商只支付了加征关税的"小部分成本"，美国国 内企业和消费者则承担了"主要成本"。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受总台环球资讯广播记者采访时分析认为，这是美联储对 当下美国关税政策影响的判断，而这一结论与特朗普在第一任期内发起关税战时，美国业界做出的评价 一致。 这次美联储的货币政策会议纪要对美国关税政策对价格的影响做出"逐步推升"的明确判断。在成本分摊 方面，其实在特朗普第一任期时，包括彼得森研究所也做出了非常明确的数据分析，结论就是九成以上 的关税成本都是由美国消费者承担的。美联储也认为这些高关税，无论是"对等关税"还是行业关税，都 会逐步由美国的消费者来承担，从而推升美国的通胀，所以它在降息方面采取了一 ...

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 310.3 billion, 91.4 billion, and 154 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 214.6 billion, -13.7 billion, and 142.9 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance scale of 111.7 billion, with a net financing amount of -19.2 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had an issuance scale of 251.4 billion, with a net financing amount of -9 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The bond market experienced significant adjustments under weak financial economic data, influenced by factors such as rising anonymous interest rates, the stock-bond relationship, and the progress of US-China negotiations [2] Liquidity Tracking - After the month-end, the funding environment became naturally loose, with the central bank's announcement of a buyout-style reverse repurchase operation supporting new bond issuance. The overnight funding rate briefly fell below 1.3%, further pushing down funding prices. Ultimately, R001 and R007 decreased by 1.3 basis points and 3.3 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3] Policy and Fundamentals - July economic and financial data indicated that insufficient domestic demand is beginning to exert pressure on economic growth in the second half of the year, with weak real financing demand. High-frequency data shows that production has mostly rebounded month-on-month, while consumption remains low, with food prices declining but industrial product prices rising [4] Overseas Market - Despite a mild performance in the US July CPI, the PPI exceeded expectations, and the unexpected decline in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for August has led to rising long-term and short-term inflation expectations, maintaining concerns about inflation in overseas markets. The 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.33%, up 6 basis points from the previous week [5] Equity Market - The market continued its upward trend this week, with trading volume gradually increasing. The Shanghai Composite Index touched a high of 3700 since 2021, with the Wind All A Index rising by 2.95% during the week. The ChiNext and STAR Market surged by 8.58% and 5.53% respectively. The average daily trading volume for the Wind All A Index remained above 2 trillion. As of August 14, 2025, the financing balance for the Wind All A Index was 2041.039 billion, an increase of 42.131 billion from August 7, indicating a continuous net inflow of financing, particularly focused on the ChiNext and STAR Market [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - In an environment of fundamental pressure and weak financing demand, the central bank's liquidity support stance is unlikely to change fundamentally, and continued loose funding is a high-probability event. This is favorable for short-term bonds and certificates of deposit. However, for the long end of the bond market, July financial data indicates a trend of residents shifting deposits. Recent market risk sentiment remains high, and the initiation of a new round of yield decline may require patience until the stock market's rapid rise subsides and the central bank resumes buying and selling government bonds. The period around September 3rd is an important observation point for the stock market, during which more attention should be paid to high-level configurations and maintaining liquidity in the portfolio. In the convertible bond market, valuation is currently a focal point of market debate. The median valuation of convertible bonds has exceeded 130, and as equity strengthens, the number of strong redemption targets will increase, leading to a decrease in relatively high-quality convertible bond targets. High valuations do not necessarily indicate a bearish outlook but suggest a weakening of volatility and risk-return asymmetry, making it more challenging for low-volatility strategy investors to participate. From a beta perspective, convertible bonds are expected to absorb equity elastic funds, and under a low-interest-rate environment, they will not adjust ahead of stocks. In terms of detailed strategy selection, there is still room for bond selection in convertible bonds [7]

Group 1 - Investors are eagerly anticipating the Federal Reserve to end its wait-and-see approach and initiate interest rate cuts, with a focus on the bond market's movements [1] - The yield curve of the $28 trillion U.S. Treasury market is steepening, reflecting increasing confidence in the resumption of the rate-cutting cycle [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield has significantly dropped from approximately 4.4% to 3.8% since the last rate cut in December, indicating market optimism [1] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains relatively unchanged at around 4.3%, compared to 3.8% a year ago, despite the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in four years [1][3] - Concerns about inflation are rising, with investors expecting a 3.3% inflation rate a year from now, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [2] - The U.S. government's annual debt repayment cost has reached $1 trillion, contributing to upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields [3] Group 3 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries is currently 57 basis points, higher than the 25 basis points observed during the last rate cut in 2024 [6] - The increase in the term premium for long-term Treasuries is attributed to larger Treasury auctions and growing fiscal concerns [3][6] - The potential impact of tariffs and trade policies on global trade may also contribute to the risk premium included in bonds [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have rebounded, reaching around $3,352 per ounce, with a notable increase of nearly $40 on Wednesday, closing at $3,348.20, reflecting a rise of approximately 1% [1] - The decline in the US dollar index, which fell by 0.13% to 98.20, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating global demand [1] - Political pressures from President Trump on the Federal Reserve, including calls for the resignation of Governor Cook, have contributed to the weakening of the dollar, which in turn benefits gold as a hedge against political risk [2] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed a split among decision-makers, with only two officials supporting a rate cut, while the majority preferred to maintain current rates, reinforcing market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong central bank demand, easing monetary policy, and a 30% chance of a recession in the next 12 months [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading within a consolidation range of $3,300 to $3,400, with short-term movements reflecting a triangular pattern, indicating potential volatility in the near term [8]

Group 1 - International silver prices rose to $37.89 per ounce, up 1.41%, with a daily high of $37.93 and a low of $36.95, indicating a volatile market influenced by rising consumer prices due to tariff measures [1] - As of August 20, 2025, silver ETF holdings decreased to 15,305.76 tons, down by 33.90 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen to around 3%, with tariffs expected to further increase consumer prices, although the Federal Reserve views these tariff impacts as one-time adjustments [2][3] Group 2 - The current economic environment shows that inflation rates have exceeded the 2% target, with price pressures likely to increase in the coming months due to higher tariff costs being passed on by businesses [3] - The labor market is experiencing a slowdown in new population growth, which may limit the expected downward pressure on prices, despite a stable unemployment rate [3] - The silver market is currently in a weak downward trend, with support levels at $36.5 and resistance levels at $37.60 and $37.85, indicating potential future price movements [4]