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“市场渴望12月降息”,高盛交易员:情绪低迷,但许多客户认为“比特币若止跌,美股年底还会有行情”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 02:44
尽管标普500指数仅较历史高点回落数个百分点,但市场交易情绪已降至冰点。高盛首席交易员Brian Garrett表 示,周五虽录得100个基点的反弹,却被视为近年来"最失败"的反弹之一,交易台的氛围更像是市场跌停时的景 象。 高盛多项技术指标显示市场正处于危险区域:流动性随波动率上升而枯竭,标普500的Gamma值已转为负值, 防御性板块轮动加剧,系统性交易阈值被突破,波动率指标闪现恐慌信号。市场正呼吁美联储在12月降息。 主经纪商账簿数据显示,总敞口已达高位,投资者继续沿着防御性板块链条调整配置,主题策略团队总结 称:"客户一直处于买入罢工状态,关键主题的不确定性导致更加防御性的姿态,资金流向偏向AI板块抛售和动 量对冲。" 系统性抛压:刚刚开始 这种情绪分裂在数据上表现明显。纳斯达克100指数平均日交易区间接近3%,标普500指数超过2%,而标普500 指数期权的日均交易量已达到3.5万亿美元的历史新高,超过整个罗素2000指数的市场总值。 尽管如此,部分积极因素正在浮现。高盛指出,经济增长担忧可能被过度放大,流动性状况有望改善,AI生产 力主题在客户对话中获得更多关注。许多客户将比特币等高贝塔资产视为风 ...
英国计划投入5000万英镑,支持关键矿产的本土化生产
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-11-24 02:44
Core Insights - The UK aims to localize the production of critical minerals, targeting at least 50,000 tons of lithium by 2035 to reduce reliance on global supply chains [1] - The government plans to meet 10% of mineral demand through domestic production and 20% through recycling by 2035, with an investment of approximately £50 million (around $65 million) to support local businesses [1] - Key minerals identified for development include lithium, nickel, tungsten, and rare earth elements, which are essential for smartphones, electric vehicles, and data centers for AI applications [1] Industry Developments - A cooperation agreement was signed between the UK and Saudi Arabia earlier this year to strengthen supply chains and create opportunities for UK companies, attracting new investments [4]
Sora概念(文生视频)板块短线拉升 值得买涨超10%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 02:43
Sora概念(文生视频)板块短线拉升,值得买涨超10%,福石控股、万兴科技、开普云、三六零、拓尔思 等跟涨。相关ETF方面,人工智能ETF基金(159248)成交额1089.82万元,人工智能AIETF(515070) 成交额7979.3万元。 ...
南华期货早评-20251124
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 02:42
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US employment data shows significant divergence, and the performance of NVIDIA's AI business has restored market risk appetite. The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed serious differences, and the change of the October non - farm report schedule has led to a lack of key data for the December interest - rate decision. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but the policy remains firm, and the market's expectation of policy intensification is rising [2]. - The spot pressure of the container shipping European line continues, and the futures price fluctuates lower. The market is currently mixed with long and short factors, and the short - term volatility may intensify. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term trend is unclear [14][15][17]. - For copper, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [86000, 87000] [18][20][21]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [22]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate narrowly, and the nickel - stainless steel market should be wary of callbacks in the unilateral downward range and pay attention to option opportunities [22][24][25]. - Tin is expected to oscillate narrowly, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - The risk of a decline in lithium carbonate prices still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. It is expected to show a "wide - range shock and weak" operating characteristic in the range of 83000 - 93000 yuan/ton in the next two weeks [27]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to maintain an oscillating and weak pattern in the short term [27][28][29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate, and there is support below [30]. - For steel products, the overall finished products are supported by raw material costs below, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range, with rebar in the range of 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3100 - 3400 [31][32]. - Iron ore prices continue to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and the market sentiment to improve before considering shorting at high prices [33][34]. - For coking coal and coke, the support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. - The crude oil market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term [38][39][40]. - The valuation of LPG is being repaired, and attention should be paid to the profit of PDH and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - For PTA - PX, the speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds [46][47][48]. - The upward height of methanol 01 is limited. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions and consider 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse spreads [48][49]. - The downward space of PP is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern [50][52][53]. - PE is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern, and a selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - The bottom space of asphalt is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [60][61]. - Rubber and 20 - rubber fell after reaching the upper limit of the range, and attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestic policies remain firm. Overseas, the US employment data is divided, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is inconsistent. The market is concerned about the November employment data and the appointment of the Fed chairman. The RMB exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom, with the center slowly declining" [1][2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The dovish remarks of Fed officials have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may support the stock index in the short term. However, due to the tense Sino - Japanese relations and the lack of policy news, the stock index is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term long positions should be held. Although there are some negative factors, the impact on the bond market is mainly short - term sentiment, and the substantial negative impact is limited [6]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The spot index has weakened again, and the shipping companies' price - holding efforts have not been effective. The market is mixed with long and short factors, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the precious metals are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. The long - term price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average [14][15][17]. - **Copper**: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and the fundamentals of each link [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The reduction of TC in November has increased the willingness of smelters to cut production, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to exports and the macro situation [22][23][24]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: They are in a unilateral downward range, and attention should be paid to callbacks and option opportunities. The cost of nickel - iron has collapsed, and the downstream demand for stainless steel is weak [24][25]. - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The supply of concentrates is tight, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk of a decline still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. The supply of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the downstream demand may decline seasonally [27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The fundamentals are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to follow the price fluctuations of related varieties and maintain an oscillating and weak pattern [27][28][29]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and there is support below. The raw materials for smelting are tight, and the cost of recycled lead provides support [30]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate in the range, with the lower limit supported by raw material costs and the upper limit suppressed by inventory. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The price continues to oscillate widely. The decline of coking coal price may support the iron ore price. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before shorting at high prices [33][34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand. The production is expected to decline, and de - stocking may depend on production cuts [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term. Attention should be paid to the changes in macro and geopolitical factors [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand for PDH is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the profit and the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - **PTA - PX**: The speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the short term [46][47][48]. - **Methanol**: The upward height of 01 is limited. The port pressure is increasing, and the inland is de - stocking. It is recommended to hold short - call positions and consider reverse spreads [48][49]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand growth is slowing down [50][52][53]. - **PE**: It is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, especially with the end of the agricultural film peak season. A selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply has decreased, and the demand is gradually weakening [60][61]. - **Rubber & 20 - Rubber**: They fell after reaching the upper limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61].
千问APP公测一周,下载量超1000万
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-11-24 02:41
人民财讯11月24日电,据阿里巴巴官微消息,千问APP公测一周,千问APP下载量突破1000万。 ...
凌云光股价涨5.11%,华富基金旗下1只基金重仓,持有5000股浮盈赚取8950元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 02:40
数据显示,华富基金旗下1只基金重仓凌云光。华富人工智能ETF联接A(008020)三季度持有股数5000 股,占基金净值比例为0.01%,位居第四大重仓股。根据测算,今日浮盈赚取约8950元。 华富人工智能ETF联接A(008020)成立日期2020年4月23日,最新规模11.68亿。今年以来收益 53.77%,同类排名206/4208;近一年收益49.99%,同类排名177/3981;成立以来收益31.24%。 华富人工智能ETF联接A(008020)基金经理为张娅、李孝华、郜哲。 截至发稿,张娅累计任职时间19年13天,现任基金资产总规模156.2亿元,任职期间最佳基金回报 215.97%, 任职期间最差基金回报-8.51%。 李孝华累计任职时间4年203天,现任基金资产总规模121.18亿元,任职期间最佳基金回报73.56%, 任 职期间最差基金回报-22.74%。 11月24日,凌云光涨5.11%,截至发稿,报36.79元/股,成交2.73亿元,换手率1.64%,总市值169.59亿 元。 资料显示,凌云光技术股份有限公司位于北京市海淀区翠湖南环路13号院7号楼知识理性大厦,成立日 期2002年8月1 ...
技术人不能错过的NeurIPS之夜:蚂蚁集团海边星光技术Party报名启动!
机器之心· 2025-11-24 02:39
O GROUP | NELUSION AI ANT GROUP × NeurlPS 2025 2025年12月2日下午至12月5日,诚邀您亲临蚂 蚁集团于 NeurIPS 2025的展位现场。我们将在 12月3日 break 时段,在蚂蚁展台带来本次中稿 论文与技术报告的深度分享。欢迎现场碰头,与 论文作者&蚂蚁技术专家面对面交流技术灵感, 共同探讨前沿研究成果与最新实战经验。 义 展台位置 / Hall A & B ● 展 位 号 / 1723 minumming www.index ANT GROUP 2025 The Thirty-Ninth Annual Conference on NeurIPS 2025 NeurIPS 2025 ( Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems ) 是人工智能与机器学习领域最具 影响力的国际顶级会议之一,被中国计算机学会(CCF ) 列为 A类会议。NeurlPS 2025 将于12月2日-7日在美国 圣地亚哥举办,并首次在墨西哥墨西哥城设有分会场。 为汇聚领域内的杰出学者与顶尖技术人才,搭建前沿技 术探索 ...
中金:维持联想集团目标价14.8港元与“跑赢行业”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 02:36
同时认为,联想集团AI基础设施业务强劲增长,今财季内,集团云基础设施业务收入创同期历史新 高,AI服务器收入亦实现高双位数增长。 中金发布研报称,维持联想集团(00992)目标价14.8港元及"跑赢行业"评级,仍有52%的上行空间,暂维 持2026-2027财年盈测不变,整体业绩超该行预期,主因三大业务集团及全区域市场均实现双位数收入 增长,AI相关收入业务收入占比同比升13个百分点至30%,及运营利润率的提升。 面对上游核心元器件涨价,该行认为,集团在上游储存供应紧张、涨价压力下,拥有灵活的供应链管 理、与关键元器件供应商长期合作关系,也建立了灵活的价格调整机制,具较强的风险吸收能力。集团 亦对2026下半财年PC收入实现双位数的同比增长有信心。 ...
智能早报丨我国启动聚变领域国际科学计划;“国产GPU第一股”摩尔线程今日发行
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-11-24 02:35
【观网财经丨智能早报 11月24日】 月球制造+质量投射器,马斯克瞄准每年100太瓦太空能源产能 今天,被称为"国产GPU第一股"摩尔线程在科创板发行,114.28元/股的发行价也创下了今年A股IPO市 场的最高发行纪录,意味着投资者如果中一签(500股),要缴款57140元。之前,今年以来发行价最高 的新股是登陆沪市主板的天有为,发行价93.5元/股。 传毫末智行已停工解散 有知情人士爆料称,由长城控股,高瓴、高通等投资的智驾公司毫末智行突然通知:员工11月24日起不 用到岗上班,赔偿方案尚未公布。公开信息显示,毫末智行成立于2019年11月,前身为长城汽车智能驾 驶前瞻部,曾是国内首个实现自动驾驶技术量产的企业,其业务涵盖乘用车智能辅助驾驶、末端物流自 动配送车及智能硬件三大领域。其核心产品HPilot系统搭载超20款车型,2024年用户智驾里程突破2.5亿 公里,还曾上榜《胡润全球独角兽榜》。 Meta隐瞒社交媒体危害心理健康的"因果"证据遭起诉 11月24日,美国多个学区起诉Meta及其他社交媒体平台的集体诉讼中,曝光的完整诉讼文件显示,该 公司在发现旗下Facebook和Instagram这两款产品 ...
千问App公测一周,下载量已突破1000万次
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-24 02:35
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,11月24日,据千问微博消息,阿里旗下的AI助手千问App公测一周,下载量已突破1000万 次。 ...