证券代码：000498 证券简称：山东路桥 山东高速路桥集团股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-4 | 投资者关系活 | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 动类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | 其他（电话会议） | | 活动参与人员 | 中泰证券股份有限公司侯希得及 6 家机构投资者 | | | 山东路桥证券管理部部长、证券事务代表李文佳 | | | 山东路桥经营开发部专员张堃 | | | 山东路桥证券管理部投资者关系管理专员朱晓赛 | | 时间 | 2025 年 4 月 29 日 10:00-10:40 | | 地点 | 山东高速路桥集团股份有限公司 25 楼 | | 形式 | 电话会议 | | 交流内容及具 | 一、介绍公司情况 | | | 二、互动交流 | | | 1.公司现金流是否会进一步改善？ | | | 2025 年一季度，公司通过加强现金流管理，经营 | | | 活动产生的现金流量净额同比增长 81.03%，净现金流 | | | 有所改善。 | | | 2.公司目前订单的整体 ...

2025 年 04 月 29 日 与传统风格相关性更低，A 股资产配置 新方向：大成中证全指自由现金流 ETF （159235）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百四十七 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 益 量 化 研 究 权 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共25页 简单金融 成就梦想 股 票 基 金 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 现金流 ETF 已经成为海外市场热门产品，国内产品申报火热。国内自由现金流产品目前 处于起步阶段，而海外现金流产品已经取得了丰硕的发展成果。其中规模领先的 COWZ 规模已超 200 亿美元。近期国内现金流 ETF 迎来集中申报浪潮， ...

Group 1 - The announcement of Duan Yongping's temporary departure from the investment community Xueqiu has become a hot topic in the domestic investment circle [1] - Duan Yongping, a legendary figure who started his entrepreneurial journey at 28 and retired at 40, has significantly influenced a generation of investors and entrepreneurs [1] - His investment philosophy has impacted numerous influential companies such as Xiaobawang, BBK Electronics, OPPO, VIVO, Pinduoduo, and Jitu Express [1] Group 2 - Investment is fundamentally about buying companies, which translates to purchasing their future cash flows discounted to present value [3][5] - The essence of investment lies in value investing, where the focus is on the company's intrinsic value rather than market price fluctuations [9][10] - A good business model is characterized by a sustainable competitive advantage, allowing for consistent profitability and cash flow [14][18] Group 3 - Apple is highlighted as a prime example of a company with an exceptional user experience and a strong business model that competitors find hard to replicate [16][17] - The single product model of Apple is noted for its efficiency in resource allocation and cost control, leading to high-quality products at lower costs [18][19] - Apple's marketing strategy is also recognized for its effectiveness, achieving high sales prices with relatively low advertising costs [21] Group 4 - The importance of having a guiding principle or "North Star" in decision-making is emphasized, which can lead to significant long-term differences in outcomes [25][26] - The concept of "doing the right things" and maintaining integrity is presented as essential for long-term success in business [30][29]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·环保 绿色动力（601330） 2025 一季报点评：归母同增 33%超预期，提 质增效成果显著 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,956 | 3,399 | 3,593 | 3,765 | 3,910 | | 同比（%） | (13.39) | (14.08) | 5.71 | 4.79 | 3.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 629.28 | 585.08 | 649.61 | 717.62 | 760.30 | | 同比（%） | (15.51) | (7.02) | 11.03 | 10.47 | 5.95 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.55 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.65 | 17.91 | 16.13 | 14.60 | 13.78 | [Table_Tag] ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 9.598 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 18.63% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.283 billion yuan, up 86.26% year-on-year, although below the expected 2.465 billion yuan due to underperformance in thermal power [1][2] Financial Performance - In 1Q25, the company's revenue decreased by 8.70% year-on-year to 1.945 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 543 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.37%, but still below the expected range of 573-653 million yuan due to lower-than-expected power generation [1][2] - The company declared a dividend per share (DPS) of 0.205 yuan (tax included) for 2024, with a payout ratio of 70.77%, fulfilling its commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% for the year [1] Power Generation Breakdown - In 2024, the company's total power generation increased by 27.77% year-on-year to 36.424 billion kilowatt-hours, driven by a 44.94% increase in hydropower generation to 30.583 billion kilowatt-hours due to water recovery [2] - The company added 874,700 kilowatts of new energy capacity in 2024, with solar power accounting for 91% of the new installations, resulting in a 104.17% year-on-year increase in solar power generation [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates further improvement in hydropower utilization hours in 2025, as the average utilization hours for hydropower in 2024 were only 90% of the average from 2017-2023 [1] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 7.79 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating, despite a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-26 due to significant pressure on thermal power trading prices [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic operations and is expanding its international business opportunities [1] - The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience in operations with a revenue increase of 6.9% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 16.87% [2] - The company is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the short to medium term, with long-term value potential [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 698.50 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.34 billion, up 16.87% [2] - The company's net profit margin for Q1 2025 was approximately 3.20%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.27 percentage points [3] - The express logistics revenue grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while supply chain and international revenue increased by 9.9% [4] - The company reported a significant increase in free cash flow, up 55.6% year-on-year, indicating improved cash management and operational efficiency [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 119.11 billion, 142.57 billion, and 168.45 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 19.7%, and 18.2% [6] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 18.1, 15.1, and 12.8 [6] Key Financial Indicators - The total revenue for 2023 is reported at 258,409 million, with a projected growth rate of 10.1% for 2024 and 10.9% for 2025 [7] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.8% by 2027 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 8.9% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2027 [7]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF is set to be listed on May 7, 2025, with a total of 425 million shares [1] - As of April 25, 2025, the fund's asset allocation consists entirely of bank deposits and settlement reserves, with no stock investments during the initial building period [1] - In April, a total of 35 stock ETFs have announced their listings, with an average allocation of only 14.95% [1] Group 2 - The average fundraising for newly announced ETFs in April is 597 million shares, with leading funds including Ping An CSI A500 ETF and Southern CSI All Share Free Cash Flow ETF [2] - Institutional investors hold an average of 19.28% of the shares in these ETFs, with the highest proportions in funds like Penghua STAR 50 ETF and China International CSI 300 ETF [2] - The table provided lists various ETFs, their establishment dates, fundraising sizes, and stock allocation percentages, highlighting the low stock allocation for several funds [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in domestic operations and is expanding its international business opportunities [1] - The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience in operations with a revenue increase of 6.9% year-on-year, and a net profit growth of 16.87% [2][3] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and quality improvement, leading to a slight increase in net profit margins [3] - The logistics revenue increased by 7.2% year-on-year, while supply chain and international revenue grew by 9.9% [4] - The peak of capital expenditure has passed, resulting in a significant increase in free cash flow by 55.6% [5] - The company is expected to maintain strong profit growth in the coming years, with projected net profits of 119.11 billion, 142.57 billion, and 168.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 698.50 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 2025 was 22.34 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.87% [2] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 40.62 billion, down 14.21% year-on-year [5] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 315.54 billion, with a growth rate of 10.9% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 11.91 billion, with a growth rate of 17.1% [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 14.0% by 2025 [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in financial performance for Q1 2025, with total revenue and net profit showing substantial year-on-year decreases [1][2][8] Financial Performance Overview - Total revenue for the quarter was 25.4852 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.62% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -21.9754 million yuan, down 35.66% year-on-year [2] - The non-recurring net profit was -22.4263 million yuan, reflecting a 25.54% decline compared to the previous year [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin stood at 29.09%, a decrease of 7.62 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Net margin was -98.18%, down 153.42 percentage points from the previous year [3] Expense Management - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses reached 19.882 million yuan, accounting for 78.01% of total revenue, which is an increase of 157.36% year-on-year [4] Assets and Liabilities - Cash and cash equivalents amounted to 305 million yuan, a decrease of 28.52% year-on-year [5] - Accounts receivable increased to 125 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.67% [5] - Interest-bearing liabilities rose to 21.9187 million yuan, a significant increase of 195.54% year-on-year [5] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow per share was -0.63 yuan, a decline of 39.12% year-on-year [6] Other Key Indicators - Net asset value per share was 6.51 yuan, down 17.26% year-on-year [7] - Earnings per share were -0.31 yuan, a decrease of 34.78% compared to the previous year [7] Analysis and Recommendations - The company's performance in Q1 2025 indicates notable declines in revenue, profit, and expense management, necessitating close attention to cash flow conditions [8] - The growth in accounts receivable and negative net profit may impact the company's long-term health [8]

Core Viewpoint - 德恩精工's Q1 2025 financial results show improved profitability despite negative net profit, indicating potential for future growth [2][7] Operating Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 124 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.13% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -14.02 million yuan, but improved by 31.92% year-on-year [2] - The non-recurring net profit was -17.95 million yuan, with a year-on-year improvement of 23.19% [2] Profitability - Gross margin reached 6.78%, up 57.96% year-on-year, while net margin was -11.94%, an increase of 33.52% year-on-year [3] Cost Control - Total selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 20.63 million yuan, accounting for 16.65% of revenue, a decrease of 9.37% year-on-year [4] Cash Flow and Asset Status - Operating cash flow per share was 0.06 yuan, a significant increase of 317.91% year-on-year [5] - Cash and cash equivalents were 97.06 million yuan, down 26.18% year-on-year, while accounts receivable increased by 7.24% to 107 million yuan [5] - The ratio of cash to current liabilities was only 26.28%, indicating a need for improved cash flow management [5] Debt Situation - Interest-bearing debt was 635 million yuan, a decrease of 7.75% year-on-year, with an interest-bearing asset-liability ratio of 32.74% [6] Dividends and Financing - Since its listing, the company has raised a total of 425 million yuan and distributed dividends totaling 70.40 million yuan, resulting in a dividend-to-financing ratio of 0.17 [7]