港股贵金属板块亦大涨，个股近全线飘红。截至发稿，赤峰黄金涨超9%，老铺黄金涨近8%，大唐黄金、中国黄金国际涨超5%。 | 名称 | 珊介 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | | 赤峰黄金 | 40.420 | 9.48% | | 老铺黄金 | 796.500 | 7.93% | | 坛金矿业 | 0.540 | 5.88% | | AURA MINERALS | 69.310c | 5.76% | | 大唐黄金 | 0.780 | 5.41% | | 中国黄金国际 | 215.200 | 5.18% | | 紫金黄金国际 | 197.500 | 4.06% | | 国际资源 | 11.620 | 3.57% | | 漳关黄金 | 3.530 | 2.92% | | 山东黄金 | 46.740 | 2.77% | | 灵宝黄金 | 24.500 | 2.51% | | 龙资源 | 8.740 | 2.22% | | 万国黄金集团 | 13.590 | 2.18% | | 招金矿业 | 39.360 | 2.23% | | 紫雯妃,亦 | 40.760 | 1.95% | 现货白银延续涨势 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, although geopolitical risks have eased, market uncertainties remain high, and precious metal prices are expected to remain at high levels. Long - term, the logic for the rise of precious metals remains firm, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Gold is expected to be better than silver for allocation, and attention can be paid to the phased repair opportunities of the gold - silver ratio [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties will continue, dollar credit risks will increase, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, London gold spot fell 0.4% to $4825.93 per ounce, London silver spot fell 0.2% to $94.07 per ounce, COMEX gold fell 0.4% to $4826.50 per ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.2% to $93.96 per ounce, AU2602 fell 0.5% to 1083.56 yuan per gram, AG2602 rose 0.8% to 23370 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) fell 0.4% to 1081.44 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.7% to 23352 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.2 Spread/Ratio - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread rose - 36.7% to - 2.12 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread rose - 1900.0% (data may need verification), the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) rose 5.7% to - 4.96 yuan per gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) rose - 27.4% to - 511 yuan per kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio fell 1.3% to 46.37, the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 0.2% to 51.37, AU2604 - 2602 rose 18.2% to 4.02 yuan per gram, and AG2604 - 2602 rose - 36.7% to - 31 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR fell 0.37% to 1077.66 tons, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.35% to 16166.09757 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 7.92% to 296183 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 3.97% to 44945 contracts, non - commercial net long positions rose 10.37% to 251238 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions fell 0.10% to 47337 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 15.66% to 15277 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions rose 9.53% to 32060 contracts [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On January 22, 2026, compared with January 21, 2026, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.02% to 102009 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory fell 1.95% to 589052 kilograms. On January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.02% to 36142880 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.98% to 422313658 troy ounces [3]. 3.5 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 22, 2026, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.00, with a 0.01% increase compared to January 21, 2026. On January 21, 2026, compared with January 20, 2026, the dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.77, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.93% to 4.26%, the VIX fell 15.88% to 16.90, the S&P 500 rose 1.16% to 6875.62, and NYMEX crude oil rose 1.93% to 60.67 [3]. 3.6 Market Review - On January 22, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.69% to 1087.58 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 1.22% to 2339 yuan per kilogram [3]. 3.7 Influencing Factors Analysis - Trump reached a cooperation framework with NATO on Greenland and withdrew tariff threats against 8 European countries, and stated no military action to seize the island, which eased market risk aversion and pressured precious metal prices. The US Q3 GDP growth was higher than expected and weekly jobless claims were stable, indicating US economic resilience and may suppress the rise of precious metals. However, the Greenland crisis is not fully resolved, there are concerns about European funds selling US Treasuries and reducing US stock investments, and Trump's threat of retaliation adds to market uncertainties. With tight spot supply and low inventory, the fundamentals support precious metals. [3]

Geopolitical Analysis - U.S. President Trump stated that the ongoing Greenland agreement will grant the U.S. "all desired military access" [2] - Trump threatened "strong retaliation" if European countries sell U.S. assets due to tariff threats related to Greenland [2] Economic Data - U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 was revised to an annualized growth of 4.4%, up from the initial estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [2] - The core PCE price index, a key inflation measure favored by the Federal Reserve, rose 2.8% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, both in line with expectations [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 200,000, below the expected 210,000 [2] Futures Market Overview - On January 22, 2026, the main gold contract opened at 1,097.00 CNY/gram and closed at 1,087.58 CNY/gram, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous trading day [16] - The main silver contract opened at 23,037.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 23,339.00 CNY/kilogram, an increase of 0.90% from the previous trading day [16] Bond Market Monitoring - On January 22, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remained unchanged at 4.241%, with the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year notes at 0.646% [17] Gold and Silver Holdings - As of January 22, 2026, gold ETF holdings were 1,077.66 tons, unchanged from the previous day, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 56 tons to 16,166 tons [19] Trading Strategies - Gold is viewed cautiously bullish, with expectations for prices to remain in a range of 1,090 CNY/gram to 1,170 CNY/gram [22] - Silver is also seen as cautiously bullish, with anticipated price fluctuations between 23,800 CNY/kilogram and 25,000 CNY/kilogram [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the volatility in the silver market, with prices experiencing a significant increase of over 185% in 2025, surpassing gold [1][3] - Silver's performance has been driven by both industrial and investment demand, with a demand ratio of approximately 6:4, particularly boosted by the growth in the photovoltaic sector [1] - The recent surge in silver prices since late November 2025 is attributed to tight spot market conditions leading to speculative trading [1] Group 2 - Despite a generally optimistic outlook for precious metals, including silver, there are concerns about short-term overheating risks in the market due to excessive speculation [3] - Silver is characterized as a high-risk asset with a smaller market size and greater volatility compared to gold, which has more stable price support [4] - Investment professionals advise caution in trading silver, recommending that market participants avoid excessive leverage and manage their positions more prudently compared to gold trading [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and concerns over a potential new trade war, positioning gold as a key safe-haven asset compared to silver [1][2]. Gold Price Trends - Since January 1, 2023, spot gold prices have risen significantly, surpassing key thresholds of $4400, $4500, $4600, and $4700 per ounce, reaching a new high of $4717.79 per ounce with a 1.00% increase [2][4]. - Year-to-date, spot gold has seen an increase of over 8%, with three-month, six-month, and one-year gains of 9.82%, 39.26%, and 72.69% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [2]. Jewelry Pricing - The rising gold prices have led to an increase in the retail price of gold jewelry, with several brands reporting prices above 1450 yuan per gram. For instance, Lao Feng Xiang quoted 1456 yuan per gram, while other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang reported prices around 1455 yuan per gram [1][2]. - Some brands have adjusted their prices for gold jewelry, with increases ranging from hundreds to thousands of yuan [2]. Stock Market Response - A-share gold-related stocks have collectively strengthened, with companies like He Bai Group, Zhaojin Mining, and Hunan Silver seeing significant gains, with some stocks rising over 10% [3][5]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that gold and silver still have upward potential due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policies. The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of prices potentially exceeding $6000 [6][7]. - The World Gold Council reported a substantial increase in global gold ETF inflows, reaching $89 billion, indicating strong investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [6].

Group 1 - Gold prices continue to rebound, with silver experiencing a pullback, driven by rising geopolitical uncertainties that enhance market demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Economic data indicates a relief in inflationary pressures in the U.S., with December's core CPI rebound falling short of expectations, suggesting a continued loose liquidity environment that supports precious metal prices [1] - The long-term upward trend for gold is expected to persist due to factors such as weakened U.S. dollar credibility, central bank gold purchases, and heightened geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - Silver and platinum possess both financial and industrial attributes, with their prices supported not only by macroeconomic factors but also by supply-demand gaps [1] - Silver supply remains tight, with limited increases in mining output, while industrial demand, particularly from solar energy, continues to grow, stimulating active investment demand for silver [1] - Platinum supply is also constrained, with increasing demand for catalytic converters in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen energy expected to drive future growth, activating investment demand as platinum prices rise [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The market is affected by macro - geopolitical events, repeatedly supporting the gold price to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Gold can be bought on dips after a callback when it is above the 20 - day moving average. At the same time, sell out - of - the - money call options to lock in the retracement risk [1] - For silver, the short - term suspension of the 232 investigation tariff by the US and the position - limit measures of the exchange have eased the capital sentiment. The price may enter a high - level oscillation. Be cautious about unilateral participation. Sell out - of - the - money call options to earn volatility - reduction returns [1] - The spot supply of crude gold in London is tightening. It can be bought on dips when it retraces to the 20 - day moving average. The price generally fluctuates in the range of 587 - 640 yuan, and an option straddle strategy can be used. Palladium performs relatively weaker than platinum, and out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan can be sold [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Price - AU2604 contract closed at 1092.30 yuan/gram on January 21, up 32.14 yuan or 3.03% from January 20 [1] - AG2604 contract closed at 23131 (unit not clear) on January 21, up 0.30% from January 20; another silver - related data closed at 628.50 yuan/kg, up 9.15 yuan or 1.48% [1] - PT2606 contract data not provided; PD2606 contract closed at 485.80, down 4.20 or - 0.86% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Price - COMEX gold main contract closed at 4836.20 on January 21, up 67.10 or 1.41% from January 20 [1] - COMEX silver main contract closed at 92.96, down 1.51 or - 1.59% [1] - NYMEX platinum main contract closed at 2478.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.20 or - 0.05% [1] - NYMEX lithium - gold main contract (assumed to be misspelled, might be palladium - gold) closed at 1874.50, down 34.00 or - 1.78% [1] Spot Price - London gold was at 4832.97, up 1.47% from the previous value [1] - London silver was at 93.10, down 1.43 or - 1.51% [1] - Spot platinum was at 2481.58 dollars/ounce, up 15.48 or 0.63% [1] - Another "spot aluminum - gold" (might be misspelled) was at 1845.16, down 29.18 or - 1.56% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1085.93 yuan/gram, up 29.94 yuan or 2.84% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 23228 yuan/ten - gram, up 79 or 0.34% [1] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 628 yuan/5 - gram, up 15 or 2.45% [1] Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis was - 6.37, down 2.20 from the previous value, at the 46.10% quantile of the past year [1] - Silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis was 97, up 10 from the previous value, at the 60.60% quantile [1] - London gold - COMEX gold basis was - 2.06, up 2.92 from the previous value, at the 92.90% quantile [1] - London silver - COMEX silver basis was 0.19, unchanged from the previous value, at the 90.00% quantile [1] Price Ratio - COMEX gold/silver ratio was 52.03, up 1.54 or 3.05% from the previous value [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver ratio was 47.22, up 1.25 or 2.72% [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.32, up 0.02 or 1.76% [1] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium ratio was 1.29, up 0.03 or 2.35% [1] Interest Rate and Exchange Rate - 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26%, down 0.04% or - 0.9% from the previous value [1] - 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, down 0.05% or - 2.5% [1] - US dollar index was 98.77, up 0.23 or 0.23% [1] - Offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9601, up 0.0043 or 0.06% [1] Inventory and Position - Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was unchanged at 066666 (format might be wrong), with a 0.00% change [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 600779 kg, down 17803 kg or - 2.88% [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 36142880, up 6979 or 0.02% [1] - COMEX silver inventory was 422313658, down 4162840 or - 0.98% [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18864397, down 418419 or - 2.17% [1] - COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 119542538, down 3448830 or - 2.80% [1] - SPRD gold ETF position was 1078, down 4.00 or - 0.37% [1] - SLV silver ETF position was 18166, down 56.38 or - 0.35% [1]

贵金属日报 2026-01-22 贵金属 贵金属研究 图 1：金银重点数据汇总 | 金银重点数据汇总 | | 单位 | 2026-01-21 2026-01-20 | | | 日度变化 日度涨跌幅 近一年历史分位数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | COMEX报告区间为: | 2026-01-21 2026-01-20 | | | | | | 收盘价（活跃合约） | | 美元/盎司 | #N/A | 4769.10 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | 成交量 | | 万手 | #N/A | 40.64 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | COMEX黄金 | 持仓量（CFTC最新报告期：周) 万手 | | 52.75 | 48.81 | 上涨 | 8.06% | 86.79% | | 库存 | | 吨 | 1124 | 1124 | 上涨 | 0.02% | 11.50% | | LBMA黄金 收盘价 | | 美元/盎司 | 4866.50 | 4747.80 | 上涨 | 2.50% | 9 ...

Group 1 - The rise in gold and silver prices has led to increased interest in investing in copper bars, with social media buzz around "investment copper bars" [1][2] - In Shenzhen's Shui Bei area, a limited number of merchants are selling investment copper bars, priced between 180 to 255 yuan for a 1000g bar, but most do not offer buyback services [2] - The price of investment copper bars is significantly higher than the market price of raw copper, with potential recovery values for a 1000g bar estimated at less than 80 yuan [2] Group 2 - The recent increase in copper prices is linked to supply-demand dynamics, with copper futures showing a 2.68% increase year-to-date as of January 21, and COMEX and LME copper prices rising by 3.15% and 3.27% respectively [3] - Analysts suggest that the copper market may shift from a tight balance to a shortage due to insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [3] - Unlike gold and silver, copper is primarily an industrial raw material, with demand driven by sectors like electricity and renewable energy, making it less suitable as an investment compared to precious metals [3] Group 3 - The demand for gold has surged, particularly as the Lunar New Year approaches, with many customers purchasing gold in Shenzhen's Shui Bei area [4] - As of January 21, gold prices reached 1244 yuan per gram, with a recovery price of 1070 yuan per gram, while silver prices were at 26.2 yuan per gram, with a recovery price of 20.6 yuan per gram [5] - Gold prices have increased significantly, with London spot gold rising over 12% year-to-date, and silver prices up over 32% in the same period [5]

★格陵兰岛问题——①加拿大军方模拟美国"军事入侵"场景。②特朗普威胁对法国葡萄酒和香槟征收200% 关税。③美国计划削减约200个涉北约机构职位。④特朗普P图将格陵兰岛、加拿大和委内瑞拉纳入美国版 图。 ★特朗普重返白宫一周年记者会部分内容：列举365硕成就、借妻子之口自比巴菲特、"收回"巴拿马运河 在考虑范围内、不会前往巴黎参加G7会议、考虑让马查多以"某种方式"参与委内瑞拉事务、明年美国将不 会出现贸易逆差、联合国应继续存在但"和平委员会"可能取而代之。 ★美最高法院未就特朗普全球关税合法性挑战作出裁决，下个裁决窗口在一个月后。 ★ADP周度就业报告:截至2025年12月27日的四周里,私人部门庭主平均每周增加8000个就业岗位。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 国长期货 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月21日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆★ | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴 ...