今日周一(7月28日)欧盘时段，现货白银目前交投于38.27一线上方，今日开盘于38.04美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报38.30美元/盎司，上涨0.38%，最高触及38.32美元/盎司，最低下探38.03美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 据市场调查显示，该协议将自8月1日起对大多数欧盟出口至美国的商品征收15%的关税，范围涵盖能 源、军工设备与部分制造品，同时欧盟也承诺大幅增加从美进口相关商品。尽管关税水平较高，但市场 视其为双边妥协的成果，有效终结了持续数月的僵局。 在另一边，美加贸易磋商陷入停滞状态。美国总统特朗普近日明确表示，不预期能在8月1日前与加拿大 达成贸易协议，称"我们与加拿大的谈判并不顺利，可能只会征税而非协商。"这一言论明显削弱市场对 达成协议的信心。 现货白银上周收十字星，刺破前高，回踩5周均线，RSI位于高位，波段整体趋势仍偏强。周五深度跳 水，失守10日均线，日线RSI延续回落，4小时一度刺破38关口，呈头肩顶，38.5下方可维持高空思路。 加拿大方面则表现出强硬立场。加拿大总理卡尼此前接受采访时指出，加方"不会接受不公平的协议"， 更不会为 ...

欧洲股市稍后开盘料走强 金十数据7月28日讯，特朗普周日表示，他与欧盟达成了一项贸易协议。美国将为欧洲商品设定15%的 基准关税。预计欧洲股市周一开盘将上涨1%左右。德意志银行分析师在一份报告中表示："本周关键的 8月1日贸易谈判截止日期正迅速变得无足轻重。" ...

摘要周一（7月28日），上周五，美元指数连续第二日反弹，最终收涨0.219%，报97.66，但周线仍然收 阴。由于美欧贸易谈判取得进展的迹象打压避险需求，现货黄金连跌三日，创一周新低，最终收跌 0.92%，收报3337.18美元/盎司，抹去周内全部涨幅；现货白银美盘跳水，一度跌破38关口，尾盘小幅 回升，最终收跌2.39%，报38.17美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周一（7月28日），上周五，美元指数连续第二日反弹，最终收涨0.219%，报97.66，但周线仍然收阴。 由于美欧贸易谈判取得进展的迹象打压避险需求，现货黄金连跌三日，创一周新低，最终收跌0.92%， 收报3337.18美元/盎司，抹去周内全部涨幅；现货白银美盘跳水，一度跌破38关口，尾盘小幅回升，最 终收跌2.39%，报38.17美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 特朗普宣布美欧达成贸易协议：对欧盟征收15%关税、6000亿美元对美投资、欧盟各国对美实行0关 税、欧盟将购买美国军事装备，并将购买价值7500亿美元的美国能源产品。然而，美欧对15%关税协议 是否覆盖药品和钢铝表述不一。冯德莱恩：15%税率是欧委会能够达成的最佳结果。 特朗普：正在考虑与其他三 ...

石破茂：将竭尽全力执行与特朗普的贸易协议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has successfully leveraged its tariff war to gain significant concessions from the EU, allowing for increased access to the $20 trillion European market and commitments for military purchases, which benefits both the U.S. economy and Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia [1][9]. Group 1: Tariff Strategy - The U.S. has shifted its strategy from providing aid to selling military equipment to the EU, which is now required to purchase U.S. weapons to support Ukraine against Russia [3]. - The U.S. threatened to impose a 30% tariff, which pressured the EU to agree to a reduced tariff rate of 15%, demonstrating the effectiveness of U.S. tactics [3][6]. - The EU's acceptance of the 15% tariff is seen as a significant concession, as a 30% tariff would have been detrimental to the EU [6]. Group 2: EU's Position and Response - The concessions made by the EU highlight an unequal power dynamic between the EU and the U.S., with the EU historically supporting U.S. foreign strategies [8]. - The leadership of the EU Commission, particularly Ursula von der Leyen, has been criticized for prioritizing U.S. interests over those of the EU during negotiations [8]. - There is growing discontent among EU member states regarding the agreements made with the U.S., indicating internal divisions and dissatisfaction with the current trade dynamics [8][9].

川普和欧盟达成的贸易协议，延续对日本的15%关税水平，欧洲将花7500亿美元买美国能源，6000亿美 元对美投资，数千亿美元购买军火。 购买美国军火，这既是欧盟国家强化军备的实际需求（5%GDP军费标准提升各国军备采购规模），也 是其用以援助乌克兰的一部分，和此前欧盟花钱买美国武器达成的共识一脉相承。这实际上也是欧盟承 认不具备大规模重启军备生产的现实，马克龙希腊那些希望将武器生产留在欧洲的小九九被否决。 当然，欧盟购买7500亿美元美国能源，对川普日益不满的俄罗斯是釜底抽薪，战时期间欧盟每年买俄罗 斯能源的费用，远超援乌费用的数倍（对乌克兰的许多援助都是纸面上，兑现率不高，但对俄罗斯能源 的购买资金，则不能拖欠）。战争三年多，拜登和欧盟都没真正考虑过让欧盟不再依赖俄罗斯能源而减 少俄罗斯的战争收入。过去18轮的制裁，其实都是雷声大雨点小，表演成分更高。也从不触及对俄罗斯 能源收入的打击。 现在，欧盟没法继续花钱资助俄罗斯进行这场战争了，是的，你没看错，欧盟援助乌克兰，也资助俄罗 斯，当时的幻想是美国来兜底，但现在川普断了他们的念想。 可以说，让欧盟买美国能源，本该是拜登在2022年就做的事，但当时拜登的极端 ...

Core Points - The US and EU have reached a significant trade agreement, marking the end of months of trade uncertainty [2][4] - The agreement includes a 15% uniform tariff, $600 billion in investments, and $750 billion in energy purchases from the US [4][6] - The deal is seen as a major win for President Trump, who claims it is the largest agreement of its kind [4][7] Trade Agreement Details - The agreement stipulates a 15% tariff on EU products entering the US, with key industries exempted [4][11] - The EU will increase investments in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products [4][6] - The agreement is expected to benefit the automotive industry and have significant implications for agriculture and the semiconductor sector [4][6] Reactions from EU Officials - EU Commission President von der Leyen stated that the agreement is the best possible outcome given the current circumstances [6] - There are concerns within the EU about the reliance on US liquefied natural gas and the impact of the 15% tariff on the overall EU GDP [12][14] - Some EU officials express dissatisfaction, arguing that the agreement does not align with Europe's fundamental interests and may cause long-term harm [14][15] Market Implications - The agreement alleviates fears of a transatlantic trade war, providing a sense of predictability for financial markets [17][20] - Analysts suggest that the deal is a moderate positive for the stock market, as much of the content may have already been priced in [21] - The removal of the risk of further tariff increases is seen as a significant macroeconomic relief [19][20] Future Considerations - Attention will shift to the interpretation and execution of the agreement, which may present political and technical challenges [23] - The potential for ongoing uncertainty remains, as highlighted by some analysts [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report offers daily insights and trend analyses for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, etc. It assesses each commodity's price trends, supported by fundamental data and macro - industry news, and gives a trend strength rating for each commodity [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate downward, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][7][8]. - Silver is predicted to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - Copper: Domestic inventory reduction restricts price decline, with a trend strength of 0 [2][10][12]. - Zinc: High - level oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][13][15]. - Lead: Lacks driving force, price oscillates, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - Tin: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - Aluminum: High - level oscillation; Alumina has intense long - short game; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum trend strength is 0, Alumina is - 1, and Aluminum alloy is 0 [2][24][26]. - Nickel: Macro expectations determine the direction, fundamentals limit elasticity, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is dominated by macro sentiment, and the real - world situation needs repair, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Commodity prices fell on Friday night, pay attention to the spread of pessimistic sentiment, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment declines, pay attention to the risk of sharp decline, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Sentiment declines, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, strong - biased oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][38]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Resonance in sector market, strong - biased oscillation, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][40][42]. - Ferrosilicon: Disturbed by energy consumption and carbon emission information, strong - biased trend, with a trend strength of 1; Silicomanganese: Disturbed by industry's cut - throat competition information, strong - biased trend, with a trend strength of 1 [2][45][47]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Emotions are realized, wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][48][50]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovers, oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. Others - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly [2][56].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of -1 [2][7]. - Silver is predicted to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. - For copper, the decrease in domestic inventory restricts price decline, and its trend strength is 0 [2][11]. - Zinc is likely to experience high - level oscillations, with a trend strength of -1 [2][14]. - Lead lacks driving forces, and its price will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - Tin prices are disturbed by the flood in Wa State, and its trend strength is -1 [2][21]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 0; alumina has intense multi - empty games, with a trend strength of -1; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][25]. - For nickel, macro - expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0; for stainless steel, macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Price and Trading Data - Gold: Yesterday, the closing prices of沪金2510, 黄金T+D, Comex黄金2510, and London gold spot were 777.32, 773.61, 3338.50, and 3336.68 respectively, with daily declines of 0.18%, 0.19%, 0.97%, and 0.97% [5]. - Silver: Yesterday, the closing prices of沪银2510, 白银T+D, Comex白银2510, and London silver spot were 9392, 9372, 38.325, and 38.158 respectively, with daily changes of 0.06%, 0.22%, - 2.44%, and - 2.40% [5]. Macro and Industry News - The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with a 15% tariff covering most EU goods exported to the US [5]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary monthly decline was - 9.3%, the largest since the pandemic, dragged down by aircraft orders [8]. - It is reported that after the Japan - US agreement, the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes this year [8]. - China's June industrial enterprise profits above designated size saw a narrowed year - on - year decline to 4.3%, with the equipment manufacturing industry playing a prominent supporting role, and the automobile industry's profit increasing by 96.8% [8]. Copper Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪铜主力合约 and 伦铜3M电子盘 were 79,250 and 9,796 respectively, with daily declines of 0.80% and 0.59% [9]. Macro and Industry News - Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, then changed his statement, expecting most agreements to be completed before August, and the possibility of Canada reaching a new agreement before the deadline is low [9]. - Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine in Azerbaijan started trial production, with an expected copper concentrate output of 4,000 tons in 2025 [9]. - At least four copper - carrying ships were trying to reach US ports before August 1 to avoid a 50% import tariff on copper [11]. Zinc Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪锌主力合约 and 伦锌3M电子盘 were 22,885 and 2,829 respectively, with daily declines of 0.56% and 0.40% [12]. News - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified its position on China - EU differences such as so - called "over - capacity" and industrial subsidies [13]. Lead Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪铅主力合约 and 伦铅3M电子盘 were 16,955 and 2,020.5 respectively, with a daily increase of 0.38% for沪铅主力合约 and a decline of 0.12% for 伦铅3M电子盘 [15]. News - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said that in May 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [16]. Tin Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪锡主力合约 and 伦锡3M电子盘 were 271,630 and 34,140 respectively, with daily declines of 0.85% and 1.50% [19]. Macro and Industry News - Similar to gold and silver, including US - EU trade agreement, US durable goods orders decline, Japan's possible interest rate hike, China's industrial enterprise profit situation, etc. [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Price and Trading Data - For aluminum, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20,760, and other related data such as trading volume, inventory, and spreads are provided [23]. - For alumina, the closing price of沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3428, and relevant data are also presented [23]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the alloy主力合约 was 20,135, and related data are included [23]. Comprehensive News - China's June industrial enterprise profits above designated size had a narrowed decline, and the automobile industry's profit increased significantly [25]. - Trump believed that Powell would start suggesting interest rate cuts [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price and Trading Data - For nickel, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,360, and various related industrial chain data are provided [26]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the stainless steel主力 was 13,030, and relevant data are also given [26]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario, Canada's Premier Ford threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [26]. - In April, China Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project started trial production, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per single line [27]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [27]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [28]. - The Indonesian government - approved 2025 RKAB production for nickel mines was 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [28]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, expected to affect nickel - iron output by about 1900 metal tons per month [28]. - The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry requires mining and coal companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [29].

原油2509： 1.基本面：美国与欧盟周日达成一项框架贸易协议，对欧盟大多数商品征收15%的进口关税，仅为威胁税率 的一半，从而避免了这两个盟友之间爆发更大规模的贸易战；中美两国高级谈判代表周一将在瑞典斯德哥 尔摩举行会晤，以解决作为世界前两大经济体贸易战核心的长期经济争端，旨在延长8月12日的关税临时 "休战"协议期限，避免大幅提高关税；四名OPEC+代表称，OPEC+联合部长级监督委员会不太可能在周一 开会时改变现有增产计划，并指出该联盟渴望恢复市场份额，而夏季需求正帮助吸收多余的石油供应；中 性 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-28原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 2.基差：7月25 ...