Core Viewpoint - The trade negotiations between the United States and Japan have encountered significant challenges, particularly regarding automobile tariffs, with President Trump threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars if no agreement is reached [2][6][12]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Status - The seventh round of ministerial talks between the U.S. and Japan has not yielded any breakthroughs, with Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister unable to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary [2][10]. - Japan has been actively seeking a resolution to the trade impasse, but the negotiations appear to be stalled, with no significant progress reported [10][11]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Japan's economy has been adversely affected by the U.S. tariff policies, with May's industrial output growth at 0.5%, significantly below the market expectation of 3.5% [3][11]. - Manufacturers in Japan anticipate a further decline in industrial output, projecting a 0.3% increase for June and a 0.7% decrease for July [3][11]. Group 3: Tariff Threats - President Trump has reiterated his stance on maintaining high tariffs on Japanese automobiles, stating that Japan must make concessions to address the trade imbalance [5][8]. - The U.S. government plans to notify countries, including Japan, that trade penalties will take effect unless agreements are reached by the upcoming deadline [3][15]. Group 4: Future Negotiation Outlook - The deadline for negotiations is set for July 9, with Trump indicating a lack of necessity to extend the tariff suspension period, which could lead to immediate implementation of tariffs [15][16]. - Trump has expressed skepticism about the feasibility of reaching agreements with all countries, suggesting a more aggressive approach to trade negotiations [17][18].

美国总统特朗普暗示可能对日本汽车维持25%的关税，此时两国间的谈判仍在继续，而距离一系列更高 额的关税在未达成贸易协议的情况下生效，只剩下一周多的时间。 特朗普在上周日播出的一档福克斯新闻采访中说，"他们不买我们的车，对吧？但我们却让数以百万计 的他们的汽车进入美国。这不公平。现在，我们有石油。他们可以买很多石油。他们也可以买很多其他 东西，"他指的是日本可能采取的减少与美国贸易逆差的方式。 这些评论表明，双方距离达成协议仍有一定距离，并凸显了特朗普可能会坚持对汽车征收25%关税的风 险。 这次采访播出前，日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正与美国商务部长卢特尼克进行了又一轮会谈。赤泽亮 正飞越大半个地球到华盛顿进行面对面会谈，虽然他们最初是当面会晤，但随后的两次讨论是通过电话 进行的。 在特朗普于上周五录制的采访播出后，赤泽亮正通过社交媒体重申，双边会谈仍在进行中。 "日美谈判正处于关键阶段，我们将继续进行真诚和认真的讨论，"他在一篇帖子中说。他补充说，在特 朗普上周五接受采访后，双方同意本周继续会谈。 日本坚持将汽车和其他项目的行业性关税纳入更广泛的、针对特定国家的征税谈判中，后者的税率将于 7月9日上调。赤泽亮 ...

智通财经APP获悉，距离为各国与美国达成协议而设定的 7 月 9 日关税期限已仅剩10天，而美国总统唐 纳德·特朗普表示，他认为无需延长与各国的贸易谈判截止日期——届时未达成协议的国家将面临更高 关税。他说，"我觉得没必要延期，"随即补充道，"当然也可以延，这没什么大不了。" 他在上周五录制的福克斯新闻《周日早间期货》中的这番表态延续了此前的强硬立场。他在上周五记者 会上称政府对截止日期"可任意处置"，包括提前或延后： "我甚至想缩短期限，直接给所有人发信说'恭喜，你们将支付25%关税'。"而今年初，特朗普及其团队 曾制定雄心勃勃的谈判计划，并多次表示正与数十个贸易伙伴协商缩减贸易逆差、消除壁垒。 特朗普在周日播出的福克斯新闻采访中还表示，美国和日本之间的汽车贸易不公平，并提出维持 25% 的汽车关税，如果不能达成协议，一周多后美国将全面提高汽车关税。 他说道，"所以我们不给日本汽车。他们不会接受我们的汽车，对吧?然而，我们却把数以百万计的他们 的汽车运到美国。这不公平。" 同样在上周五，特朗普表示，他将终止与加拿大的贸易谈判，并威胁将在本周内对该国商品设定新的关 税税率。 特朗普表示，此举是对加拿大向科技公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's "reciprocal tariff" policy, highlighting the unexpected expansion of the trade deficit and the potential economic consequences as the deadline for trade negotiations approaches [1][4][11]. Trade Data Summary - As of May, the U.S. goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $96.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $86.1 billion, marking the highest trade deficit for the first five months of the year in history [2][5]. - The trade deficit has been primarily driven by a 5.2% decline in U.S. goods exports, which fell to $179.2 billion, the largest drop since the pandemic began [6]. - In contrast, some countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, saw their exports to the U.S. surge by approximately 35%, reaching historical highs [6]. Economic Impact - The U.S. economy experienced its first contraction since 2022, with a GDP decline of 0.5% on an annualized basis, attributed to increased imports and decreased government spending [3][14]. - The first quarter saw imports rise by 37.9%, the fastest growth since 2020, negatively impacting GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [14]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.68% year-on-year in May, surpassing expectations and reaching its highest level since February 2025 [14]. Trade Negotiation Status - The U.S. has only reached a trade agreement with the UK, which remains largely a framework with many details yet to be finalized [8]. - Negotiations with other major trading partners, including Japan and India, have stalled, with concerns over potential additional tariffs hindering progress [8][9]. - The U.S. government has requested trade partners to submit their best offers amid slow negotiation progress, indicating urgency in reaching agreements [10]. Employment and Economic Risks - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating increasing job market challenges [15]. - The credit card delinquency rate reached 3.05%, the highest since 2011, while housing market pressures are mounting due to affordability and inventory issues [15]. - The World Bank forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.3% for 2025, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting widespread economic weakness [15].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed results on June 27, with coking coal futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 2.24%, reaching a high of 1420.0 yuan/ton [1] - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.26%, a slight decrease of 0.16%, while the average daily output of coking coal was 51.67, down by 0.11 [1] - The coastal coal transportation price index (CBCFI) was reported at 719.19 points, reflecting a 0.1% increase, although market demand is expected to decrease towards the end of the month [1] Group 2 - The fourth round of price reductions for coking coal has been fully implemented, putting pressure on the market, with port coking coal costs reaching around 1300 yuan/ton [2] - Coking enterprises are reducing production due to profit constraints and environmental regulations, while the apparent demand for the five major steel types is declining, limiting growth in raw material demand [2] - From a long-term perspective, the current price level is considered relatively low, with more potential for upward movement than downward risk, suggesting that investors may consider establishing long positions after price corrections [2]

Group 1: Currency Market Insights - The European Central Bank's council member Knot stated that the possibility of another interest rate cut by the ECB cannot be ruled out [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey indicated that the strengthening of the British pound is related to uncertainties in the U.S., with interest rates still on a gradual downward path [2] - The onshore and offshore RMB against the USD briefly broke the 7.16 mark, reaching a new high in over seven months [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trade - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic began; first-quarter GDP was revised down [3] - Market volatility has led to a surge in foreign exchange trading volume for Citigroup's hedge funds [3] - The New Taiwan Dollar against the USD broke the 29 mark, reaching a high not seen in over three years [3] Group 3: Central Bank Perspectives - Federal Reserve officials expressed mixed views on potential interest rate cuts, with Daly suggesting that a fall in rates this autumn looks promising, while Collins indicated that a July cut may be premature [3] - The Hungarian central bank projected an adjusted core inflation rate of 4.7% for 2025 and 4.0% for 2026 [3] - The South Korean Ministry of Finance announced that it will further issue foreign exchange stabilization bonds in the second half of the year if necessary [3]

Group 1 - In May, the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened by 11.1% to $96.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $86.1 billion [1] - U.S. exports fell by 5.2% to $179.2 billion, marking the largest decline since the pandemic began, primarily due to a significant drop in industrial goods like crude oil [1] - Imports remained nearly unchanged at $275.8 billion, following a record decline in the previous month, indicating a potential impact on second-quarter economic growth [1] Group 2 - U.S. factory orders for core capital goods increased by 1.7%, the largest gain since the beginning of the year, with core capital goods shipments rising by 0.5% [2] - Durable goods orders surged by 16.4%, the highest increase since 2014, driven by a significant rise in commercial aircraft orders, with Boeing receiving 303 aircraft orders in May [2] - The number of individuals filing for continued unemployment benefits reached a new high since November 2021, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed Americans in finding new jobs [2]

美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大 出口创疫情以来最大降幅 金十数据6月26日讯，美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大，出口出现自疫情爆发以来的最大降幅，进口几乎 没有变化。美国商务部数据显示，商品贸易逆差增长11.1%，至966亿美元，高于市场预期。商品出口 下降5.2%，至1792亿美元，原油等工业供应品的出货量急剧下降。进口几乎没有变化，为2758亿美 元。贸易逆差扩大表明，贸易对第二季度经济增长的贡献可能低于最初的预期。一季度GDP报告还凸显 贸易与库存影响的脱钩。通常情况下，进口商品会进入仓库或直供商店，在GDP账户中形成至少部分抵 消效应。但库存当季为GDP贡献2.59个百分点，远不足以弥补贸易平衡恶化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The impending "reciprocal tariffs" set to take effect on July 9, if no trade agreement is reached between the U.S. and other countries, is causing a significant increase in the U.S. trade deficit, with potential record levels anticipated for the first five months of the year [1][2]. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit has surged, reaching $138.3 billion in March and dropping to $61.6 billion in April, with projections indicating that the total deficit for the first five months of the year could exceed $643 billion, surpassing previous records during the pandemic [2][3]. - Countries like Vietnam and Thailand have reported record exports to the U.S., with both countries seeing a 35% year-on-year increase in exports [2]. - The trade dynamics have shifted, with Asian suppliers rushing to ship goods to the U.S. ahead of the tariff deadline, contrasting with historical patterns where shipments peak before the holiday season [2]. Negotiation Progress - Ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and major trading partners are stagnating, with India rejecting U.S. requests for lower tariffs on agricultural products due to concerns over domestic farmers and genetically modified foods [4]. - Japan and South Korea are also engaged in negotiations with the U.S., focusing on tariffs affecting key industries such as automobiles and steel [4][5]. - The EU is considering retaliatory measures if negotiations with the U.S. do not yield satisfactory results, emphasizing the importance of sovereignty in decision-making [4][5]. Economic Recession Risks - The current tariff situation poses a significant threat to the U.S. economy, with analysts predicting a 60% chance of recession this year, which could lead to a substantial decline in the S&P 500 index [6][7]. - Rising consumer delinquency rates and a decrease in housing starts indicate potential economic slowdown, with credit card delinquency reaching 3.05%, the highest since 2011 [6][7]. - The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for member economies from 3.3% to 2.6% due to trade tensions, highlighting the broader economic impact of the ongoing trade disputes [7].

Group 1 - The EU is preparing to implement additional tariff countermeasures against the US as the July 9 deadline approaches, aiming to create a "real threat" to the US [1][2] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on US goods worth €95 billion and is also considering measures targeting the service sector, including taxes on US tech companies [2][3] - The EU's response to US tariffs includes a potential increase of up to 50% on $210 billion worth of US imports, which has been postponed to July 14 to allow for negotiations [3] Group 2 - The outlook for US-Japan tariff negotiations is uncertain, with Japanese officials expressing concerns about unresolved issues and a lack of consensus [4][5] - Japan's government is coordinating a visit by its economic minister to the US for further discussions on tariffs, indicating ongoing efforts to reach an agreement [5] Group 3 - The US trade deficit is projected to reach $91 billion in May, with the total deficit for the first five months of the year nearing $643 billion, surpassing previous records [6] - Asian countries, including Vietnam and Thailand, have seen significant increases in exports to the US, with Vietnam's exports rising by 35% year-on-year [6] Group 4 - The uncertainty surrounding the US tariff policy has led to a significant decline in foreign direct investment in the US, dropping from $79.9 billion in Q4 2024 to $52.8 billion in Q1 2025 [7] - Economic experts warn that the unpredictability of tariff policies may hinder corporate investment decisions and negatively impact economic growth [7]