Core Viewpoint - The copper cable high-speed connection concept has shown a significant increase, with a rise of 2.90%, ranking second among concept sectors, indicating strong market interest and investment potential in this area [1][2]. Market Performance - As of June 4, the copper cable high-speed connection sector saw 34 stocks increase, with notable performers including Huamai Technology and Derun Electronics reaching their daily limit up, while the top gainers were Taicheng Light (up 14.88%), Shenglan Co. (up 6.84%), and Ruikeda (up 6.78%) [1]. - The sector experienced a net inflow of 9.05 billion yuan from main funds, with 28 stocks receiving net inflows, and five stocks exceeding 1 billion yuan in net inflow. The leading stock in net inflow was Luxshare Precision, with 1.85 billion yuan [2]. Fund Flow Analysis - The top stocks by net inflow ratio included Huamai Technology (43.87%), Derun Electronics (24.68%), and Xinke Materials (16.19%), indicating strong investor confidence in these companies [3]. - The detailed fund flow for the copper cable high-speed connection concept shows significant activity, with Luxshare Precision, Taicheng Light, and Walden Nuclear Materials also receiving substantial net inflows [3][4].

Group 1 - The Peruvian government has acknowledged the existence of large-scale informal copper mining and warned that high prices may lead to an increase in such activities in the near future [1] - Energy and Mines Minister Jorge Montero stated that the government is vigilant about informal mining, particularly in areas where mining rights belong to China Minmetals Corporation's Las Bambas copper mine [1] - The informal mining site named Apu Chunta, operated by the indigenous Pamputa community, has an estimated annual production of 30,000 tons, valued at approximately $300 million at current prices [1] Group 2 - Informal operators have encroached on exploration projects operated by Southern Copper Corp. and First Quantum Minerals Ltd., with the Zafranal project of Teck Resources also affected [2] - Despite the presence of informal mining, the overall copper production from these informal activities remains negligible compared to formal production [2]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index saw a rise of 1.22% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 727 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,900 stocks in the market experienced gains, indicating a broad-based rally [1] Sector Performance - The beer concept, copper cable high-speed connection, and rare earth permanent magnet sectors showed the highest gains [1] - Conversely, the airport shipping, logistics, and digital currency sectors were among the few that experienced declines [1] Individual Stock Highlights - Stocks such as Xiangpiaopiao, Jiamei Packaging, Lehui International, and Longpan Technology hit the daily limit up [1] - Computing power concept stocks rebounded, with Taicheng Technology rising over 10% [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the contrasting trends in copper production, highlighting Peru's increase in output against the backdrop of ongoing disruptions at Panama's copper mines, suggesting a potential shift in the global copper supply landscape [1] Group 1: Production Changes - Peru is experiencing an increase in copper production, which may influence global supply dynamics [1] - In contrast, Panama's copper mines are facing shutdowns, leading to a decrease in their output [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The changes in production levels in Peru and Panama could lead to fluctuations in copper prices in the future [1] - The article raises questions about how these developments will impact the overall copper market and pricing strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Fan Yu" bronze ding serves as a historical artifact that confirms Guangzhou's establishment over 2200 years ago, reflecting the cultural and historical significance of the region [4][11]. Summary by Sections Historical Significance - The "Fan Yu" bronze ding, dating back at least 2200 years, is considered a "birth certificate" for Guangzhou, previously known as "Fan Yu" [4][11]. - The ding was cast in the capital of the Nanyue Kingdom, "Fan Yu," after the Qin Dynasty unified the region, indicating the spread of Central Plains culture to Lingnan [8][11]. Inscription Details - The inscriptions on the ding include "Fan Yu, Shao Nei" and "Fan Yu, Shao Nei, containing two dou and two sheng," which provide insights into the administrative and measurement systems of the time [6][13]. - "Shao Nei" refers to an official responsible for managing the royal treasury during the Qin and Han dynasties, while the measurement reflects the Nanyue Kingdom's adoption of the Central Plains' measurement system [13][14]. Cultural Reflection - The ding exemplifies the integration of various cultural influences, showcasing the advanced bronze smelting techniques in the Lingnan region during the Nanyue period [22]. - The bronze ding represents a blend of Chu, Han, and Yue styles, highlighting the diverse cultural heritage and craftsmanship of the time [16][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Peru's mining sector is expected to see significant investment and production growth in the current year [1] Group 2 - Mining investment in Peru is projected to reach $4.8 billion this year [1] - Copper production in Peru is anticipated to reach 2.8 million tons this year [1]

【冠通研究】 铜关税扰动，行情或获得支撑 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日高开低走小幅收跌。特朗普政府近期宣布将钢铁及铝进口关税翻倍至 50%，并同步启动对铜进口的《232 条款》调查，引发市场对铜关税政策落地的强烈预 期。5 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）比上月上升 0.5 个百分点，综合 PMI 产出指数 比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，主要指标回升向好，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。供给方面 保持偏紧预期，截止 5 月 30 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)-43.45 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.34 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放缓，利润负值状态下，市场偏紧 预期依然存在。4 月精炼铜(电解铜)产量 125.4 万吨，同比增加 9%;进口精炼铜数量 30.02 万吨，同比降低 11.97%，国内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增加，位于历 年同期高位水平，目前市场对铜供应紧张预期尚未兑现，实质供应尚未减弱。需求方 面，国内 PMI 数据向好，并且淡季需求韧性强，对铜价提供支撑。国内上期所库存五月 底以来继续去化，印证下游出口及需求力度。关税政策反复，经 ...

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 铜消费环比增长较快，全球精炼铜供需过剩局面得到缓解。中国 铜冶炼厂粗炼费（TC）、精炼费（RC）维持低位，加工费持续为负， 使得铜冶炼企业生产积极性受到影响。中国精炼铜产量持续保持增长， 增速有所扩大。精废铜价差保持稳定。铜材产量环比下降，同比继续 保持增长。 COMEX 铜累库明显 沪铜库存小幅上升，LME铜库存持续去库，COMEX铜累库明显。综 合来看，铜价可能以震荡行情为主。 风险提示：美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铜需求变 化超预期。 铜月报 宏观面不确定性增大，沪铜或震荡运行 内容提要 美国关税政策不断变化 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员：刘江 1—4月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同 比增长1.4%。连续两月出现同比增长，扭转了前期同比下降趋势。美 国国际贸易法院此前做出禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决后，美国联邦巡回上诉法 院批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置上述裁决。 精炼铜产量保持增长 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's expression of the Fed's independent monetary - policy - making stance after the first meeting with Trump dampened the expectation of easing this year. The rebound of the US dollar index limited the upward movement of copper prices. Meanwhile, the shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low mid - year long - term TC quote of Antofagasta to CSPT provided strong support for copper prices from the supply side [2][8]. - Globally, the trade pattern still faces significant uncertainty risks. There are differences between the Fed and Trump in monetary - policy stances. Attention should be paid to the evolution of trade policies, their impact on the global supply chain, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy. Fundamentally, overseas mine - end disturbances are frequent, domestic refined copper remains in a tight balance, and social inventories are oscillating at a low level, providing solid support for copper prices. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of the previous LME copper price at $9,600 per ton [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From May 23rd to May 30th, LME copper decreased from $9,614/ton to $9,497/ton, a decline of $117 or 1.22%; COMEX copper dropped from 486.5 cents/pound to 470.2 cents/pound, a decrease of 16.3 cents or 3.35%; SHFE copper fell from 78,270 yuan/ton to 77,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 670 yuan or 0.86%; International copper rose from 68,700 yuan/ton to 68,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 0.26%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.14 to 8.17, the LME spot premium increased from $31.14/ton to $50.08/ton, a rise of 60.82%, and the Shanghai spot premium increased from 165 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 30th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 487,852 tons, a decline of 6.04% compared to May 23rd. Among them, LME inventory decreased by 30,925 tons to 148,450 tons, a decline of 17.24%; COMEX inventory increased by 10,965 short tons to 180,629 short tons, a rise of 6.46%; SHFE inventory increased by 7,120 tons to 105,773 tons, a rise of 7.22%; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 18,500 tons to 53,000 tons, a decline of 25.87% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's stance on independent monetary - policy - making restricted the upward movement of copper prices. The shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low TC quote provided support from the supply side. Overseas mine - end disturbances intensified, COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory after three years, the Yangshan copper warrant premium was high, social inventories were at a low level, and the near - month B structure of the futures market widened slightly [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 30th, the total global inventory continued to decline. LME copper inventory decreased significantly, the LME 0 - 3B structure widened, and the proportion of cancelled warrants continued to rise to 51.5%. SHFE inventory rebounded slightly from a low level, Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium remained above $90, and COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory for the first time in three years. The rise of the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar index [8]. - **Macro - situation**: The Fed's latest meeting minutes showed that the US economy continued to expand steadily, unemployment was low, inflation was generally controllable but rising, and trade policies had a large impact on the economic outlook. Powell expressed the Fed's independent stance, while Trump thought Powell's non - interest - rate - cut decision was wrong. The EU should be vigilant against potential economic downturn risks. In China, industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, showing a positive trend [9]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The spot TC remained below - $40/ton, and Antofagasta's mid - year long - term TC quote to CSPT was a record - low - $15/ton, increasing concerns about raw - material supply shortages. Domestic refined copper was in a tight balance. On the demand side, power - grid investment projects were being tendered, copper - cable enterprises' weekly operating rate was about 80%, and orders for refined - copper rod enterprises were abundant. Although there was an expected significant decline in photovoltaic installation in May, emerging markets such as data centers, artificial intelligence, and new - energy vehicles brought strong growth expectations. Domestic social inventories remained around 140,000 tons, and the near - month B structure rebounded slightly [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Supply - demand Forecast**: In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, narrowing from 180,000 tons in February. Overseas investment banks predicted a possible shortage in the global refined copper market in the second half of the year, and the risk of a "copper shortage" was increasing. Chile raised the global average copper price forecast for 2025 to $4.3 per pound [11]. - **Mine - end Incidents**: The underground operation of the Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was suspended due to increased water inflow. The mine was formulating a drainage plan, and the surface infrastructure was not affected. The Freeport Indonesia copper smelter in East Java resumed operation ahead of schedule and was expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - capacity production in December [12][13]. - **Processing - fee and Market Transaction**: The processing fee for 8mm T1 cable rods in East China last week was in the range of 450 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The trading activity in the East China refined - copper rod market increased, while in South China, trading was mostly postponed to after the holiday. It was expected that the operating rate of domestic refined - copper rod enterprises would remain high in early June [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper premium trends, copper import profit - loss trends, copper concentrate spot TC, and the net - long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net - position changes of investment funds in LME copper, etc [15][22][36].

多资产配置研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：牛播坤 【资产配置快评】 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 ❖ 投资摘要： Poetry and art and knowledge are sacred and pure. —Mary Ann Evans "George Eliot" 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 电话：010-66500825 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 电话：010-66500830 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 24 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-05-27 《关税战后的全球资产余波——总量"创"辩第 103 期》 2025-05-26 《资产配置快评 2025 年第 23 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-05-19 《资产配 ...