金十数据4月30日讯，芝加哥DRW公司的市场策略师说，"当你看到最终销售下降2.5%时，这是不包括 库存数据的GDP，你要知道这是一个非常疲弱的数字。这是自新冠时期以来最疲软的，在新冠之前，你 必须回到2009年，才能找到一个实际最终销售额较弱的季度。所以我认为这可能是债券最初上涨的原 因，但重新考虑一下，他们可能会关注通胀指标，GDP平减指数和个人消费支出核心指数，两者都明显 高于预期。因此，这份报告对债券市场产生了一点推动作用。" 策略师：GDP数据信号好坏参杂 引发债市波动 ...

一、债券市场发行情况 3月份，债券市场共发行各类债券87356.6亿元。国债发行12786.3亿元，地方政府债券发行9788.0亿元，金融债 券发行10226.4亿元，公司信用类债券¹发行13335.2亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行186.0亿元，同业存单发行 40686.2亿元。 截至3月末，债券市场托管余额183.1万亿元。其中，银行间市场托管余额161.8万亿元，交易所市场托管余额 21.3万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额35.3万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额49.8万亿元，金融债券托管余额 41.5万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额33.1万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.1万亿元，同业存单托管余额 21.2万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额1649.0亿元。 二、债券市场运行情况 3月份，银行间债券市场现券成交36.5万亿元，日均成交1.7万亿元，同比减少6.7%，环比增加22.1%。单笔成 交量在500 万 -5000万元的交易占总成交金额的49.8%，单笔成交量在9000万元以上的交易占总成交金额的 44.0%，单笔平均成交量4198.0万元。交易所债券市场现券成交3.6万亿元，日均成交1718.4亿元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of trade conflicts, it is expected that starting from the April PMI, data will gradually reflect the pressure, increasing the urgency to boost domestic demand. A loose monetary environment is needed, and short - and medium - term treasury bond yields are expected to decline significantly, followed by long - term bond yields potentially breaking previous lows [28]. - The bond market may evolve in a volatile manner, more likely to break downward. Long - term bonds are more cost - effective, and it is recommended to maintain a duration above neutral [28]. - For REITs, project fundamentals show increasing differentiation. In the second quarter, rental housing, consumption, and public utility projects may maintain resilience, while industrial parks and logistics warehousing projects may face headwinds [28]. - The current fundamentals are favorable for the bond market. It is advisable to buy on dips. Interest rates are expected to be narrowly volatile before the end of April and more volatile from May to June, with a possibility of breaking previous lows [29]. - Since April, external tariff shocks have affected domestic manufacturing and emerging industries. In the future, attention should be paid to the recovery of external demand, the development of emerging markets, and the implementation of domestic stimulus policies [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In March 2025, GDP at constant prices had a quarterly year - on - year growth of 5.40%, the same as the previous period and slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI was 50.50%, up from the previous period but lower than the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.80%, also up from the previous period but lower than the same period last year [1]. - The Caixin manufacturing PMI was 51.20%, and the Caixin service industry business activity index was 51.90%, both showing an upward trend from the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in March 2025 were 11.50%, 1.60%, and 7.00% respectively, with M0 and M1 increasing compared to the previous period, while M2 remained the same [1]. - The CPI in March 2025 had a year - on - year decline of 0.10%, narrowing from the previous period; the PPI had a year - on - year decline of 2.50%, slightly deeper than the previous period [1]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) and total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.20% and 4.60% respectively, showing a slight upward trend compared to the previous period [1]. - The year - on - year growth rates of export and import values in March 2025 were 12.40% and - 4.30% respectively, with exports rebounding strongly from the previous period and imports declining [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, including supporting employment, stabilizing foreign trade, promoting consumption, expanding effective investment, and creating a stable development environment [2][3][17]. - On April 28, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 24 had negative basis. Yarn, Zhengzhou cotton, and pulp had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber, strong wheat, and common wheat had the smallest [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Sichuan Yajiang has proven lithium ore resources of 2.2 billion tons, ranking first in the world in terms of proven pegmatite - type lithium ore reserves [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, China increased its gold reserves by 12.75 tons, with a total of 2292.33 tons by the end of March. Domestic raw - material gold production increased by 1.49% year - on - year, while consumption decreased by 5.96%. The trading volume and turnover of the domestic gold market increased significantly [6]. - The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus of 28.9 tons in 2025 and 20.9 tons in 2026 [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Indian government is working to ensure a fair competition environment to prevent the impact of cheap imports on the steel market, and the country's steel ministry plans to increase coking coal imports [8][9]. - The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral framework agreement this week [10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Sinopec's net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter of 2025 was RMB 13.975 billion, and the net cash flow from operating activities increased by RMB 21.9 billion year - on - year [12]. - The National Energy Administration issued measures to promote the development of the private economy in the energy sector, including exploring financing channels and supporting private enterprises in the energy field [12]. - In March 2025, there were 4455 new on - record new - energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaic) in China, mainly photovoltaic projects [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia exported 923,893 tons of palm oil from April 1 to 25 [14]. - Japan may increase imports of US - produced corn as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On April 28, the central bank conducted 279 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 103 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment, the economy, and promote high - quality development, with specific measures in multiple aspects [17]. - The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates in a timely manner, and is researching new policy tools [17]. - In March 2025, local governments in China issued a total of 978.8 billion yuan in bonds, including 174.8 billion yuan in general bonds and 804 billion yuan in special bonds [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - Treasury bond futures mostly rose, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly declined. The inter - bank market funds were generally stable [23]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.54%, and the Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.86% [24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2995, down 163 points from the previous trading day. The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was raised by 23 points [27]. - The US dollar index fell 0.65%, and non - US currencies generally rose [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the bond market and REITs, including yield trends, investment strategies, and project fundamentals [28][29]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On April 29, 217 bonds were listed, 88 bonds were issued, 132 bonds were settled, and 302 bonds repaid principal and interest [30]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - A - share major indices adjusted, with consumption and real - estate sectors performing poorly and bank stocks strengthening. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.65% [31][32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.04%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.12% [32]. - The Taiwan Weighted Index rose 0.81% [33]. - As of April 28, 4706 A - share listed companies disclosed their first - quarter reports, with about 45.07% achieving year - on - year profit growth [33]. - Since April, 236 A - share companies have been surveyed by foreign institutions, mainly in sectors such as overseas expansion, consumer electronics, and pet economy [33]. - Multiple fund companies received notices of index license fee reduction, with the fee generally discounted by 20% [34][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][5] 2. Core View of the Report - External uncertainties are high, while internal policies are implemented steadily, which is basically in line with the bond market expectations. After the release of the meeting communiqué, bond yields remained stable. Looking ahead, the main contradiction in the bond market remains unchanged. Domestically, the direction of policy easing is certain, but the implementation pace is to be determined. Internationally, Sino-US relations are likely to ease, but the process is highly uncertain. The bond market is not pessimistic overall, but the upside and downside potential is limited, and yields are likely to remain volatile. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy as the primary approach and a trading strategy as a supplementary one [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Meeting's Assessment of the Situation - The meeting is satisfied with the economic performance in Q1 but highly concerned about overseas uncertainties. The economy shows a positive trend, but the foundation for continuous recovery needs further consolidation, and external shocks are increasing [2][3] 3.2 Policy Thinking - Strengthen bottom-line thinking and prepare sufficient contingency plans. Due to the long - term, severe, and uncertain impact of current tariffs, the direction of policy hedging is certain, and the policy level is based on bottom - line thinking. However, the specific implementation rhythm needs to dynamically assess internal and external changes. Currently, the focus should be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies [2][3] 3.3 Specific Policies - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: There are differences in the wording of monetary and fiscal policies. Fiscal policy should be fully utilized and more proactive, while monetary policy still involves timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with structural innovations such as supporting technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][4] - **Risk Resolution**: In the areas of local debt and real estate, the wording is more detailed, but the tone remains "continuously consolidating", indicating affirmation of the existing policy direction and a low probability of a shift to strong stimulus [2][4] - **Domestic Demand Policies**: These policies are given a large space and a prominent position in the report, but they mainly emphasize bottom - line thinking, such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, stabilizing employment, ensuring people's livelihoods, and supporting enterprises severely affected by tariffs [2][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, with the strong performance of the A-share market, fixed-income + funds with equity exposure performed well, showing a trend that the higher the equity position, the better the overall performance. Meanwhile, pure bond products experienced significant drawdowns due to multiple factors. QDII bond funds rose driven by the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate and the decline of short-term US bond yields [3]. - Most fund managers believe that the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend in Q2 2025, with opportunities in the medium and short - end. The stock market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the convertible bond market has certain differences in views [35][37][39]. Summary According to the Directory 1.固收型公募基金2025Q1季报数据解读 Performance - In Q1 2025, fixed - income + funds with equity exposure performed well, and the higher the equity position, the better the performance. Pure bond products had significant drawdowns, and passive index bond funds performed worse than medium - and long - term pure bond funds and short - term pure bond funds. QDII bond funds rose [3]. - The average Q1 2025 reinstated unit net value growth rates of different types of funds are as follows: convertible bond funds 2.72%, international (QDII) bond funds 2.02%, flexible allocation funds 1.09%, partial debt hybrid funds 0.45%, hybrid bond funds (secondary) 0.39%, money market funds 0.34%, hybrid bond funds (primary) 0.29%, short - term pure bond funds 0.19%, medium - and long - term pure bond funds - 0.10%, enhanced index bond funds - 0.17%, passive index bond funds - 0.26%, REITs - 0.29% [5]. Scale - As of the end of Q1 2025, fixed - income + funds received significant capital inflows, with secondary bond funds having the fastest scale growth [6]. Leverage - As of March 31, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, the overall fund leverage showed a downward trend [8]. Duration - As of March 31, 2025, compared with December 31, 2024, the fitted durations of pure bond funds all showed a downward trend [11]. Equity - related Position Changes - As of the end of Q1 2025, the convertible bond positions of different types of fixed - income funds with equity exposure all showed a downward trend. The changes in stock positions were divergent, with the stock positions of primary and secondary bond funds with relatively low position centers increasing, while those of convertible bond funds with relatively high position centers decreasing [15]. Stock Industry Changes (Active) - The top five industries with increased holdings are non - ferrous metals, steel, commerce and retail, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The top five industries with reduced holdings are transportation, construction, coal, basic chemicals, and petroleum and petrochemicals [18]. Individual Stock Heavy - holdings - The top ten heavily - held stocks in Q1 2025 by market value are Zijin Mining, Yangtze Power, Midea Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, Yili Group, China CITIC Bank, and Haier Smart Home [20]. - The top ten heavily - held stocks in Q1 2025 by the number of holding funds are Zijin Mining, Midea Group, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, Yangtze Power, Luxshare Precision, China Merchants Bank, China Mobile, and Yili Group [21]. Individual Stock Increases - The top stocks with increased market value in Q1 2025 are Zijin Mining, China CITIC Bank, Kweichow Moutai, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba - W, etc. The top stocks with an increased number of holding funds are Zijin Mining, BYD, Alibaba - W, etc. [23]. Individual Stock Decreases - The top stocks with reduced market value in Q1 2025 are China Shenhua, Postal Savings Bank of China, PetroChina, etc. The top stocks with a reduced number of holding funds are China Shenhua, CNOOC, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, etc. [25][26]. Convertible Bond Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the convertible bond holdings of the fixed - income funds decreased slightly. The funds generally reduced their holdings of bond - biased convertible bonds and increased their holdings of balanced convertible bonds [27]. - Compared with Q4 2024, the industries with the largest increase in holdings in Q1 2025 are basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, and electronics. The industries with the largest decrease in holdings are banks, transportation, and automobiles. Fixed - income + funds are overweight in basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and machinery compared with the CSI Convertible Bond Index [29]. - Funds significantly increased their holdings of convertible bonds rated between A+ and AA+. They moderately reduced credit quality to select individual bonds after the overall valuation of convertible bonds increased [31]. 2. 固收型重点基金2025Q1后市展望观点汇总 Short - term Bond Funds - Most fund managers believe that the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend in Q2 2025, especially with possible supportive monetary policies, the capital market may become more liquid. Structurally, they are optimistic about the certainty opportunities in the medium and short - end [35]. Medium - and Long - term Bond Funds - Most fund managers believe that with increasing external uncertainties, the internal economic momentum needs continuous fiscal and monetary policy support. Monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, and the bond market may show a moderately strong and volatile trend. Some fund managers advocate active trading to increase returns, while others are optimistic about coupon opportunities [37]. Fixed - income Funds with Equity Exposure - Stock assets: The stock market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the future, attention will be paid to the mid - term repair trend of fundamentals, leading stocks with strong competitiveness, stable patterns but significantly compressed valuations, as well as the allocation value of dividend assets and technology growth [39]. - Convertible bond assets: There are differences in views on the convertible bond market. On one hand, as the convertible bond market adjusts with the stock market, the previous high valuations have improved, and the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is gradually increasing. On the other hand, the absolute price and relative valuation of convertible bonds are still at a high level, and some fund managers mainly allocate to bond - biased convertible bonds [39]. - Pure bond assets: They still have good allocation value. It is expected that the upward space of medium - and short - term interest rates is limited in Q2 2025, and the volatility of long - term interest rates may increase. Credit bonds are considered the main investment direction [39]. High - position Convertible Bond Enhancement Funds - Most fund managers believe that the convertible bond market has returned to a reasonable valuation. Structurally, they focus on diversified investment and select investment opportunities that are in line with the market trend and benefit from policies [42]. QDII Bond Funds - Global uncertainties and disturbances may continue. The impact of tariffs is still unclear, and the market may not fully price in the risks. In Q2, US Treasury bonds may decline under recession trading, but there is a high probability of two - way fluctuations in the short term. Credit allocation should focus on high - grade, medium - and short - duration bonds [43][44][45]. Public REITs - Rental housing: The overall performance remained stable in Q1 2025, with small fluctuations in occupancy rates [46]. - Industrial parks: Market demand continued to be under pressure, with occupancy rates of most industrial park REITs falling below 80% [47]. - Consumption: The performance of consumer infrastructure projects was stable, with occupancy rates generally above 90% [48]. - Transportation: There was significant differentiation in Q1 2025, with some projects recovering and others performing poorly [49]. - Warehousing and logistics: There was an obvious "quantity - for - price" phenomenon, with occupancy rates remaining high but rents decreasing, leading to a slight decline in operating income [50]. - Energy and environmental protection: The performance of different underlying assets was differentiated [51].

首席对话 - 债市机会与风险探讨 2025042320250416 摘要 • 贸易战和美国降息预期对中国经济和货币政策产生影响，前者影响经济基 本面，后者为中国债券市场带来中期交易机会。 • 尽管中国经济展现韧性，但房地产收入预期未明显改善，叠加贸易问题、 信贷动力不足和通胀压力，经济前景仍面临不确定性。 • 股市韧性及国家队稳市行为压制债市，需警惕股市上涨对债市的负面影响， 以及量化交易可能引发的债市波动风险。 • 预计四五月份中国经济指数表现稳定，但三季度基本面压力可能加大，届 时央行态度或随之调整，中期来看债市机会大于风险。 • 当前美元兑人民币汇率处于 7.3 水平，与过去贬值时期美元指数高位不同， 反映出股债市场与汇率的锚定关系可能发生变化，未来需关注政治局会议 定调。 • 当前资金面偏紧，隔夜利率较高，中短期利率债套息空间受限，长利率债 存在交易机会。资金状况虽有所改善，但仍需等待进一步释放。 • 当前货币政策的量和价尚未完全满足央行调整条件，预计未来资金宽松可 能持续，融资价格或有所回落，需关注 10 月份政治局会议的政策倾向。 Q&A 2025 年第二季度债券市场的机会和风险主要在哪里？ 展望 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and its dynamics, focusing on the recent fluctuations and the outlook for 2025 [2][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Volatility**: The bond market experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, with major adjustments observed on Mondays followed by some stabilization, but pressure returned by Friday. The risks identified include tightening liquidity, rising interbank certificate of deposit (CD) rates, and adjustments in market expectations regarding liquidity [2][4]. - **Liquidity Conditions**: There are signs of marginal easing in liquidity, with stable overnight repo rates and good issuance of interbank CDs. The central bank has maintained a cautious stance on long-term interest rate changes, indicating potential for further easing if economic pressures increase [4][7]. - **2025 Market Outlook**: The expectation for a one-sided bull market in bonds for 2025 has weakened, with a likely shift to a range-bound market characterized by significant volatility. Long-duration assets are seen as less secure, while short-duration credit strategies and CDs may offer better advantages [5][6]. - **Economic Indicators**: Recent macroeconomic data shows a decline in industrial production, but high operating rates in the consumption chain and improved real estate market conditions. Consumer demand, particularly in automotive sales, remains strong despite price pressures [6][8]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, indicating a response to economic pressures. Recent actions include net liquidity injections to support the market, with a focus on maintaining stable funding rates [8][10]. Additional Important Content - **Company-Specific Insights**: - **Huakang Medical**: The company, now rebranded as "Huakang Shortcut," focuses on cleanroom engineering with an order backlog of nearly 3 billion yuan and anticipates a 10% growth in its medical segment. The company is expanding into laboratory and electronic cleanroom businesses, which have shorter project cycles and quicker payment terms [2][13][14]. - **Jintian Co., Ltd.**: The company is closely monitoring its convertible bonds and ensuring repayment capabilities. It expects improved processing fees in 2024 and good production schedules in 2025, focusing on net profit margin improvements and high-quality order acquisition [2][15]. - **Market Behavior**: Banks have been major sellers in the bond market, while funds and brokerages have shifted to significant net buying. The leverage ratios of various financial institutions have shown mixed trends, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [16]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently navigating through a complex landscape of liquidity adjustments, economic pressures, and evolving investor sentiment. Companies like Huakang Medical and Jintian Co., Ltd. are positioned to leverage their respective market segments amidst these changes, while the central bank's policies will play a crucial role in shaping future market conditions [2][4][5][13][15].

Economic and Fiscal Overview - Henan Province has a large economic scale with ongoing optimization of its industrial structure and rapid development of emerging industries, but its economic growth rate and urbanization level need improvement compared to other provinces in Central China [1][29] - The province has a relatively high comprehensive financial capacity and significant central government support, but the quality of general public budget revenue and fiscal self-sufficiency require enhancement, with a growing trend in debt scale and pressure [1][29] - The bond issuance scale in Henan Province increased from 2022 to 2023, with a slight decline in the first half of 2024 but an optimized structure [1][30] Bond Financing Analysis - Within the province, state-owned enterprises, urban investment enterprises, and industrial state-owned enterprises have distinct characteristics in domestic bond financing, with innovative bonds and asset-backed securities showing an upward trend [2] - Compared to other provinces in Central China, Henan's domestic bond issuance scale and costs differ, with urban investment bonds being dominant and industrial state-owned enterprises' bond issuance relatively weak [2] - In the offshore bond financing sector, the issuance of Chinese dollar bonds and dim sum bonds varies, with Henan's offshore labeled bond issuance becoming active again in the first half of 2024 [2] Credit Rating Situation - The credit ratings of bond issuers in Henan Province are primarily concentrated in the AAA, AA+, AA, and AA- categories, with state-owned enterprises generally having higher credit ratings compared to private enterprises [3] - State-owned enterprises are mostly rated AAA, while urban investment state-owned enterprises predominantly fall within the AA+ and AA categories [3] - Compared to other provinces in Central China, Henan's urban investment bond issuers have relatively better credit quality, with a strong willingness among urban investment entities to issue offshore bonds or obtain ratings [3] ESG Rating Analysis - Henan Province actively implements ESG-related policies to promote sustainable development among enterprises, with an increasing disclosure rate of ESG reports among listed companies [3] - The overall ESG ratings of bond-issuing enterprises are higher than those of listed companies, but there is still room for improvement [3] - The disclosure rate of ESG reports among listed companies in Henan is relatively high compared to other provinces in Central China, although local state-owned listed enterprises need to enhance their disclosure practices [3] Development Recommendations - It is recommended to optimize the debt structure of urban investment enterprises and promote their market-oriented transformation [3] - Strengthening corporate credit rating cultivation and supporting private enterprise financing are suggested to enhance the overall financing environment [3] - Increasing the issuance of innovative bonds and enhancing corporate ESG performance are also recommended to boost sustainable development capabilities [3]

记者今天从中国人民银行了解到，截至2025年4月15日，共有1160余家境外机构进入我国债券市场，涵 盖了70多个国家地区的主权类机构和商业类机构，持有债券总量4.5万亿元，较2024年末的持仓量上升 了2700多亿元。境外机构也积极来华发行熊猫债，累计发行量超过9500亿元。近一段时间，境外机构普 遍看好我国债券市场，积极参与人民币债券投融资业务。中国债券市场总规模已达到183万亿元人民 币，位居世界第二。(央视新闻) ...

在国际货币基金组织（IMF）达成协议以及外汇管制取消后，阿根廷美元债券全线上涨约3美分。 ...