Core Viewpoint - The market is awaiting the U.S. non-farm payroll report for insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a slight decline in the dollar observed [1] Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's strategist McKinney notes that moderate job growth does not necessarily indicate a slowdown in the labor market due to a slowdown in immigration growth [1] - Investors should focus on the unemployment rate and wage growth for clearer indications of the Federal Reserve's next steps [1]

美国劳动力市场的降温趋势正迎来关键考验，今夜20:30公布的8月非农就业报告将为投资者揭示经济放缓的真实速度。市场正屏息以待，评估这 份数据是否足以促使美联储启动50个基点的大幅度降息。 市场普遍预期，8月新增非农就业人数为7.5万人，与7月7.3万人的疲软增速基本持平，而失业率预计将微升至4.3%。在美联储主席鲍威尔于杰克 逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放鸽派信号后，市场已基本消化了9月降息25基点的预期。 然而，一份极其糟糕的报告可能促使鲍威尔选择降息50个基点。据渣打银行分析，要让50个基点的降息"摆上台面"，投资者可能需要看到非农就 业人数低于4万，且失业率达到或超过4.4%。 除了新增就业人数，投资者还将密切关注前几个月的数据修正值。7月份报告对5月和6月就业人数的大幅下修曾震惊市场，并成为美联储政策转向 的重要催化剂。此外，美国劳工统计局下周即将公布的年度基准修订初值，也可能成为引爆市场行情的又一"黑天鹅"事件。 期权市场定价反映出一种异常平静的预期，数据显示，交易员预计报告发布当日标普500指数的波动幅度仅为0.70%左右，这将是历史上非农日最 低的波动之一。 市场预期：增长放缓，失业率攀升 根据媒体综 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.17, while spot silver opened at $40.66/oz and is currently around $40.72/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9752 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 9767 CNY/kg. Key focus today includes the US unemployment rate for August, adjusted non-farm payrolls, and average hourly wage changes [1] - On September 4, the dollar index rose by 0.13% to close at 98.27. Spot silver closed at $40.62/oz, down 1.38%, as the August "small non-farm" data fell short of expectations, causing silver to drop below $41/oz. Spot gold also saw a decline of 0.38% to $3545.53/oz, ending a seven-day rally [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 50.83 tons to 15230.57 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On September 4, the payment direction for deferred compensation fees was Ag(T+D)—short paying long [2] Economic Indicators - The US August "small non-farm" payrolls recorded an increase of 54,000, below the expected 65,000, with the previous value revised from 104,000 to 106,000. Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, the highest level since June [3] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US fell to 6.5%, the lowest since October 17 of the previous year, down from 6.56% the previous week. This decline may attract hesitant homebuyers, although many are still waiting for more significant rate cuts [4] Silver Price Analysis - The silver market opened at 41.191, experienced a slight rise to 41.221, and then saw a strong pullback, reaching a low of 40.387 before closing at 40.658. The market is currently awaiting non-farm payroll results, with suggested trading positions around 39.5 and targets set at 40.5, 40.7, and 41-41.2 [4]

周四，美国纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，目前尚未看到白宫提高进口关税对整体通胀趋势造成明显影 响，这为美联储在9月会议上降息扫清了一个潜在障碍。 他预计，美国经济将在未来数月持续放缓，贸易和移民政策的不确定性将继续压制经济增长，失业率将 在明年逐步升至约4.5%。 在杰克逊霍尔会议上，鲍威尔也表达了对失业率突然大幅上升的担忧，指出历史周期显示，一旦就业市 场开始恶化，往往会迅速恶化。 在通胀方面，威廉姆斯预计短期内通胀率将短暂升至3%以上，随后逐步回落至2026年的2.5%，并在 2027年回归至美联储2%的长期目标水平。 尽管市场押注美联储本月降息，但内部意见分歧明显加剧。 美国银行预计，9月利率决议可能出现严重分歧。美联储理事沃勒、理事鲍曼、旧金山联储主席戴利以 及候任理事米兰倾向支持进一步降息；而克利夫兰联储主席哈马克、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克、以及 理事穆萨利姆、理事施密德则更关注通胀风险。 威廉姆斯在纽约经济俱乐部发表讲话时指出，"没有看到关税在整体通胀趋势上引发放大效应或二轮冲 击"。 他是美联储主席鲍威尔的重要盟友，此番表态与鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话一致，进一步强化了 降息的政策信号。 分析人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is considering starting interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, with multiple cuts expected in the next three to six months based on economic developments [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The call for rate cuts comes amid concerns over economic impacts from tariffs and signs of a weakening labor market, with recent data indicating a sharp slowdown in job growth [2][5]. - Inflation remains a concern, particularly with rising service sector prices keeping overall inflation above the Fed's 2% target [5]. Group 2: Rate Cut Strategy - The pace and magnitude of rate cuts will depend on incoming economic data, with the current policy rate still above the neutral rate that neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy [4]. - The Fed aims to approach the neutral rate, estimating potential cuts of around 100 to 150 basis points, but the speed of achieving this will be data-dependent [4]. Group 3: Leadership Insights - Waller has been a long-time advocate for rate cuts, previously dissenting against the decision to maintain rates in July, favoring a 25 basis point cut [6]. - He has commented on the potential for leadership changes within the Fed, indicating past discussions with Treasury Secretary Yellen but no current interviews for the Fed Chair position [6].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, with a potential for multiple cuts over the next three to six months [1][8] - The direction of monetary policy is aimed at moving towards a neutral interest rate, which may require a reduction of 100 to 150 basis points [9][10] - The internal consensus within the Federal Reserve is strengthening, with key figures like Powell and Waller aligning on the need for rate cuts [10] Economic Conditions - The labor market is showing signs of significant cooling, with recent data indicating a slowdown in job growth, raising concerns about rising unemployment [5][10] - Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, particularly driven by rising service sector prices, complicating the monetary policy landscape [3][5] - Waller believes that concerns about inflation from tariffs are short-term and expects inflation to return to the target within six to seven months [5] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's approach will be data-dependent, with the pace and magnitude of rate cuts contingent on upcoming economic indicators [8][10] - The overall monetary policy is expected to transition into a relatively accommodative phase in the coming months, prioritizing economic stability over immediate inflation concerns [10]

#报告 渣打：警惕美国失业率与新增就业数据的误导。 https://t.co/J5w0A7qhQWNone (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for starting interest rate cuts this month, with multiple reductions expected in the next three to six months, depending on future economic data [1][2] - Waller emphasizes that while the direction for rate cuts is clear, the pace and extent will be determined by economic indicators, suggesting a potential reduction of 100 to 150 basis points to reach a neutral rate [2] - The current economic backdrop shows a cooling labor market with significant employment growth slowdown, while inflation pressures persist, particularly from rising service prices, keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% target [3] Group 2 - Waller expresses confidence that inflation will trend downwards after short-term disruptions, potentially returning to the Fed's target within six to seven months, despite acknowledging widespread concerns about inflation risks from tariffs [3] - Waller has been a long-time advocate for rate cuts, previously dissenting against the decision to maintain rates in July, favoring a 25 basis point reduction [3] - Waller also addresses speculation regarding his potential candidacy for the next Fed Chair position, indicating past discussions with Treasury Secretary Yellen but no current interviews scheduled [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for starting interest rate cuts this month, with multiple reductions expected in the coming months, depending on future economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - Waller emphasizes the need to begin rate cuts at the next meeting, suggesting that the pace of these cuts should be flexible and responsive to economic developments [1]. - He indicates that while the direction for rate cuts is clear, the speed and extent will depend on economic data, estimating a potential reduction of 100 to 150 basis points to reach a neutral rate [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The call for rate cuts comes amid signs of a cooling labor market, with recent data revisions showing a sharp slowdown in job growth, raising concerns about rising unemployment [3]. - Inflation pressures persist, particularly due to rising service sector prices, keeping overall inflation above the Fed's 2% target, although Waller expects a return to this target within six to seven months [3]. Group 3: Personal Insights and Future Considerations - Waller has historically supported rate cuts, having previously opposed the decision to maintain rates in July, favoring a 25 basis point reduction [3]. - He also addressed speculation regarding his potential candidacy for the next Fed Chair position, stating he has not participated in interviews for the role, providing insight into possible leadership changes within the Fed [3].

Group 1: Unemployment Rates Overview - The unemployment rate in the United States for July was 4.2%, which increased by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, raising concerns among market participants [8] - South Korea's unemployment rate stood at 2.5% in July, marking a second consecutive month of decline, with a year-on-year increase of 171,000 jobs [12][18] - China's urban survey unemployment rate for July was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from June, which is higher than the U.S. but lower than South Korea [22][25] Group 2: Structural Issues in Employment - In the U.S., job growth is heavily reliant on a few sectors like healthcare and social services, which poses a risk if these sectors slow down [7] - South Korea faces structural issues with youth unemployment, as jobs for individuals aged 20-29 have decreased for ten consecutive quarters, with a loss of 168,000 jobs in the first quarter of this year [14][16] - China's youth unemployment rate for ages 16-24 reached a recent high of 17.8%, indicating a significant disparity in employment opportunities between younger and older age groups [27] Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Employment - The tightening of immigration policies in the U.S. has led to over 1.2 million immigrants leaving the labor market, affecting sectors like agriculture and construction [10] - South Korea's low unemployment rate masks deeper issues, such as reliance on low-wage, temporary jobs for older individuals, which do not contribute significantly to productivity or income levels [18][20] - China's employment resilience is supported by the growth in high-tech manufacturing, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% in July, particularly in sectors like integrated circuits and new energy vehicles [31][35]