Group 1 - Billionaire investor David Einhorn expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more than the market anticipates, increasing his confidence in gold holdings [1] - Despite strong non-farm payroll data in January, market expectations for rate cuts have slightly cooled, with traders still betting on two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, with a probability exceeding 88% [1] - Einhorn believes that using employment data as a reason to avoid rate cuts is "wrong" and predicts more cuts due to Kevin Warsh's influence as a potential Fed chair [1] Group 2 - The core reason for the recent rise in gold prices is that gold is becoming a reserve asset for global central banks [2] - Einhorn highlights the instability of U.S. trade policies, prompting other countries to seek settlement methods outside of the dollar [3] - The combination of current fiscal and monetary policies is deemed "illogical," with other major currencies performing poorly compared to the dollar [3] Group 3 - Following Trump's statement about not worrying about a weak dollar, the dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since April 2025 [4] - Einhorn anticipates significant issues with some major currencies in the coming years [5] - He views betting on more rate cuts as "one of the best trades currently" and holds long positions in Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures, essentially betting on continued declines in short-term rates [5]

Core Insights - Hedge funds are showing a significant shift towards increased bets on the Japanese yen amid rising interest in "buying Japan" trades [1] - Despite strong U.S. employment data diminishing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, bullish sentiment towards the yen continues to grow [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Japanese yen has appreciated against the U.S. dollar for three consecutive trading days, maintaining strength even as the dollar faced pressure following the U.S. non-farm payroll report [1] - The nominal volume of put options on the dollar/yen pair, with a notional size of $100 million or more, has exceeded that of call options by approximately 50% [1] Group 2: Options Market Dynamics - The premium for options betting on or hedging against a decline in the dollar/yen exchange rate has reached its highest level since February 2 [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the U.S. labor market showed resilience in January, with non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts [1][2] - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, surpassing the consensus estimate of 70,000 and the previous month's 50,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, a five-month low [1] - Following the employment data release, U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield reaching above 3.55%, an increase of 10 basis points, while the 10-year yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.17% [1] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March increased by 14 percentage points to 94.1% following the employment report [2] - Despite the positive employment data, experts caution that the labor market remains fragile, with signs of ongoing weakness [2] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office raised its forecast for the federal budget deficit for the next ten years, projecting a deficit of $1.85 trillion for fiscal year 2026, an increase of $100 billion from previous estimates [3][4] Group 3 - The projected federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2036 is expected to rise to $3.11 trillion, accounting for 6.7% of GDP, significantly higher than the 5.8% in fiscal year 2025 [4] - Publicly held U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP is anticipated to increase from 101% in fiscal year 2026 to 120% in fiscal year 2036, surpassing the previous high of 106% in 1946 [4] - Interest payments on U.S. government debt are expected to rise from $1.04 trillion in fiscal year 2026 to $2.14 trillion in fiscal year 2036, with the proportion of interest payments to fiscal revenue projected to increase from 18.6% to 25.8% [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum is trading thinly and moving sideways [1] - Palladium is in a continuous oscillation [2] - The trend strength of platinum and palladium is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Platinum**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 551.15 with a 2.54% increase. The price of gold - exchange platinum was 545.38 with a - 0.74% change. The New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2137.90 with a 2.37% increase, and the London spot platinum (previous day) was 2149.70 with a 3.10% increase. Trading volume and positions of platinum in different markets also changed. For example, the trading volume of Guangbo platinum (kg) was 6,831 with an increase of 26,312 compared to the previous day, and the position was 83,404 with a decrease of 827 [3] - **Palladium**: The price of lithium gold futures 2606 was 439.10 with a 2.34% increase. The New York lithium main - continuous (previous day) was 1727.50 with a - 1.00% change, and the London spot lithium gold (previous day) was 1710.00 with a 0.35% increase. The trading volume and positions of palladium in different markets also had corresponding changes. For example, the trading volume of Guangji (kg) was 2,972 with a decrease of 127, and the position was 9,414 with a decrease of 259 [3] - **ETF and Inventory**: The platinum ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 3,268,547 with an increase of 1,601, and the palladium ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 1,194,969. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 583,369 with no change, and the NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 186,863 with a decrease of 4,010 [3] - **Price Spreads**: There are various price spreads, such as the spread between PT9995 and PT2606, the spread between Guangbo platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts, and the spread between the main Guangbo platinum contract and London platinum (considering value - added tax). Similar spreads also exist for palladium [3] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.70% to 96.93. The US dollar - to - RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 6.91 with a - 0.15% change, and the US dollar - to - offshore RMB (CNH spot) exchange rate was 6.91 with a - 0.06% change [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **US Non - farm Report**: In January, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, far exceeding market expectations and reaching the largest increase since April 2025. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. After the non - farm report was released, traders lowered their expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Trump praised the non - farm data and urged the Fed to cut interest rates to the "lowest in the world". The US Labor Secretary said the January employment report showed a strong US economy [6] - **Federal Reserve**: Schmid favored maintaining interest rates at a "somewhat restrictive" level, believing that further rate cuts could lead to persistent inflation. Milan said if nominated, he would be willing to stay at the Fed [6] - **International News**: Zelensky is ready to negotiate in the US on February 17th or 18th. The US is pressuring Ukraine to hold a presidential election and a referendum on a peace agreement with Russia in the spring. Trump met with the Israeli Prime Minister and said reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred option". The US House of Representatives narrowly rejected a motion, allowing Trump's tariff resolution to be voted on by the full House. A source said Trump is privately weighing whether to withdraw from the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement. The US Congressional Budget Office expects the 2026 deficit to be $1.9 trillion, basically the same as in 2025 [6] - **Gold - related News**: The Central Bank of Kenya joined the ranks of African central banks increasing gold holdings, planning to buy gold to strengthen its buffer capacity. As of the end of January, Serbia's gold reserves reached a record high of 53.08 tons [6]

1.国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，我国CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，核心CPI同比上涨0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续 4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，同比则下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分点。此次发布的CPI和PPI数据以2025 年为基期，为本次基期轮换后的首次数据发布。国家统计局指出，本次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同比指数的影响平均约为0.06 和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 早盘速递 2026/2/12 热点资讯 2.美国1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人，远超市场预期的7万人，前值小幅下修至4.8万人。失业率录得4.3%，创2025年8月 以来新低；时薪环比增长0.4%，超预期。交易员将美联储降息押注从6月推迟至7月。 3.中国汽车工业协会发布数据显示，1月份，我国汽车产销分别完成245万辆和234.6万辆，同比分别增长0.01%、下降3.2%。其 中，新能源汽车产销分别完成104.1万辆和94.5万辆，同比分别增长2.5%和0.1%。新能源汽车出口保持高速增长，出口30.2万 辆，同比增长1倍。 4.美国总统特朗普在白宫与到访的以色列总理内塔尼亚胡举行闭门会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market saw a significant increase, with April 2026 gold prices rising by $59.9 to close at $5,107.8 per ounce, reflecting a 1.19% increase, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and strong safe-haven demand [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. Labor Department reported a non-farm employment increase of 130,000 in January, significantly above the consensus expectation of 70,000 and the previous month's 50,000 [1] - The unemployment rate for January was reported at 4.3%, slightly lower than the previous month's 4.4% [1] - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar strengthened, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, dropping to below 15% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Despite the strong employment report and a rising dollar, the precious metals market maintained most of its overnight gains, indicating robust demand for gold and silver [1] - On the same day, silver futures for March delivery rose by 350.5 cents, closing at $84.085 per ounce, marking a 4.35% increase [1] - Analysts suggest that the price movements in gold and silver reflect solid underlying demand factors, including safe-haven buying, accumulation behavior, and central bank purchases of gold [1]

美联储官员一席话彻底浇灭市场降息幻想——达拉斯联储主席洛根最新表态显示，通胀回落并非降息 的"通行证"，美国货币政策正在进入前所未有的复杂博弈阶段。 在2月10日的讲话中，洛根给市场泼了一盆冷水：当前通胀降温还远远不够。这位美联储重量级人物明确 表示，3.5%-3.75%的利率区间很可能将持续更长时间，除非就业市场出现"实质性疲软"。这番表态直接击 碎了投资者对快速降息的期待。 值得注意的是，美联储的决策逻辑正在发生微妙变化。过去单纯盯着通胀数据的时代已经结束，现在必须 同时权衡就业市场的表现。如果未来几个月通胀持续下降而就业保持稳定，当前利率就是合适的；反之， 才需要考虑降息。这种"双轨制"判断标准，让政策走向变得更加难以预测。 更耐人寻味的是洛根对"中性利率"的界定。她认为当前利率既没有刺激经济，也没有抑制增长，这种精妙 的平衡状态给了美联储难得的操作空间。要知道，经过三次降息后，利率已经从4.25%-4.5%的高位回落， 现在正处在政策效果的"甜蜜点"。 但现实远比理论复杂。最新经济数据就像一锅"大杂烩"：消费者信心创一年半新高，可长期通胀预期却不 降反升；失业率仍在历史低位徘徊，但工资上涨的压力始终存 ...

百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，非农就业人口增加意味着2025年的三次降息已起到改善就业市场效果。但是在地缘冲突的背景下，黄金并没有大 跌下行。 技术面：昨日收小阳线。日线级别，价格维持在5000美元上方运行。1小时级别，60/120日均线斜率放缓，价格将维持震荡，MACD显示短期上升动能不 足。今日上方关注5120美元的压力，下方关注5010美元的支撑。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 2月11日，美国能源署公布截至2月6日当周原油库存数据，前值减少345.5万桶，预期值增加79.3万桶，实际公布值增加853万桶，原油库存压力较大。 上周以来，原油上涨了约3美元，表明市场正在淡化美伊谈判的结果。尽管双方将周五的会谈描述为积极，但美国仍在制裁更多的伊朗油轮，并建议美国船 只避开伊朗水域。市场预测显示美国在6月30日打击伊朗的概率为56%。表明当前阶段美国对伊朗的打击并没有做好充分的准备，谈判可能是为了争取时 间。 黄金方面： 2月11日，美国劳工部公布了1月非农就业情况，新增就业人口13万人，失业率为4.3%。 非农就业报告公布后，当下市场预计美联储在4月前降息的可能性仅有20%，相较于数据公布前的约40%显著 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a volatile session on February 11, with major indices closing slightly lower after an initial boost from better-than-expected January non-farm payroll data [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.13% to 50,121.40 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.34% to 6,941.47 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.16% to 23,066.47 points [1] Employment Data - The January non-farm payroll data showed a significant increase of 130,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 55,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% [3][4] - The majority of new jobs (124,000) were concentrated in the healthcare sector, which is double the normal growth rate for 2025, while other sectors contributed minimally [3] - Despite the positive headline figures, there are concerns about the labor market's recovery, as previous employment data has been revised downward [3] Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The strong employment data has led to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, delaying the anticipated rate cuts [4] - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in March is now at 94.1%, with only a 5.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - The next expected rate cut has been pushed from June to July, reflecting a cautious outlook on monetary easing [4] Sector Performance - The semiconductor and storage sectors stood out, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 2.28%, and Micron Technology and SanDisk seeing gains of 9.94% and 10.65%, respectively [5] - In contrast, large tech stocks and software companies underperformed, with the major tech index declining by 0.57% [5] - Notable declines were observed in companies like Google and Microsoft, both dropping over 2%, while Apple saw a slight increase of 0.67% despite negative news regarding its AI features [5] Commodity Prices - International precious metals prices surged, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.53% to $5,107.80 per ounce, and silver futures increasing by 4.6% [11] - Oil prices also climbed, with NYMEX WTI crude futures up by 1.05% to $64.63 per barrel, driven by geopolitical factors and discussions between the US and Venezuela regarding energy cooperation [11] Company News - Meta announced an investment of over $10 billion to build a 1 GW data center in Indiana, enhancing its AI infrastructure [12] - Google introduced a new AI shopping feature integrated into its search engine and Gemini chatbot, aiming to accelerate AI commercialization [12] - Kraft Heinz has paused its spin-off plan, focusing on improving company performance under new leadership [12]

来源：市场资讯 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 春节期间，地缘风险是影响A股的重要因素之一。其一，美伊局势值得关注，目前美国再次向本国公民 发布撤离提示，局部冲突的风险正在逐步升高；其二，日本右翼政党选举中取胜，对于地区发展的影响 值得长期关注。作为战略储备资源的贵金属和其他有色金属主要计价现有国际秩序的不确定性，春节前 后波动可能增加。对股指而言，当前指数波动率逐渐回落，如果节日期间爆发地缘冲突，指数波动率可 能短期上升。 （朱金涛，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0015271） 昨日国债期货收盘，30年期主力合约涨0.05%，10年期主力合约涨0.06%，5年期主力合约涨0.04%，2年 期主力合约基本持稳。中国央行2月11日开展4000亿元14天期和785亿元7天期逆回购。据qeubee统计， 公开市场有750亿元7天逆回购到期，实现净投放4035亿元。资金面来看，DR001上行0.5BP至1.37%， DR007下行2BP至1.54%。短期来看，继央行结构性降息之后财政政策接续发力，稳增长政策持续出台 背景下债市持续走强动力不足， ...