Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to geopolitical tensions, changes in the Federal Reserve's personnel, and inflationary pressures from tariffs, with gold reaching a peak of $3444 per ounce before settling at $3435 per ounce [1][3] - Short-term demand for gold is expected to remain strong, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven buying, with a potential breakthrough of the recent high of $3390 per ounce [3] - Long-term uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical risks are anticipated to continue supporting gold prices, with key factors including U.S. inflation data, trade negotiations, and Federal Reserve appointments [3] Group 2 - Silver prices have also surged, reaching a peak of $39 per ounce, driven by both the rising gold prices and increased demand in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [3] - The investment landscape for precious metals suggests that while silver and platinum have long-term investment value, short-term trading risks are heightened due to their volatility [3] - Investors are advised to consider the unique characteristics of silver, which has greater price fluctuations compared to gold, and to be cautious of liquidity risks associated with platinum investments [4]

前言：富格林规范运营诚信服务15年，兼备香港黄金交易所100号A1行员优质认证，以丰富分析市况经验为投资 者冻结戒备各式出金欺诈。金价周二延续涨势，一度触及近两周高点，为连续四个交易日上涨，展现出强劲的上 涨动能。投资者面对出金欺诈疑惑可随时咨询富格林，寻求合理冻结戒备协助建议，经验充足的专家老师团队在 线提供行情布局建议，显著提升进场操作盈利信心。 美联储动态上，美联储的人事变动为金价走势增添了变数。美联储理事库格勒宣布提前离职，特朗普称将很快公 布其临时接替人选，并排除财长接任的可能性。库格勒离职不仅让美联储理事会空出一个关键席位，还为特朗普 提名新任美联储主席铺平了道路。现任主席鲍威尔的任期将在2026年5月结束，而新提名的理事不仅将填补库格勒 的剩余任期，还有望成为特朗普心目中接替鲍威尔的首选人选。市场预期，新任理事和主席可能倾向于鸽派货币 政策，为金价提供上行动力。 富格林分析指出，眼下，美联储理事库格勒的意外离职以及特朗普对劳工统计局局长的突然解职，进一步加剧外 界对美国经济数据可信度和政策独立性的担忧。投资者正密切关注特朗普的下一步动作，以及美联储在复杂经济 环境下的应对之道。黄金短期内有望在避 ...

另外，美元指数日图及周图多头动力未能增强，而限制了金价的回落力度，月图来看，也仍处于之前2 年多的宽幅震荡区间之下，即便是继续反弹，在突破震荡区间之前，对于金价的压力，仍然是调整性 的。所以，金价未来一年左右前景仍然偏向震荡调整或以走强的方向为主。 日内将可关注美国7月全球供应链压力指数，还有晚间美盘后半段2025年FOMC票委、波士顿联储主席 柯林斯就美国和全球经济发表讲话。美联储理事丽莎·库克就美国和全球经济发表讲话。2027年FOMC 票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话。 今日周三，黄金开盘先行窄幅波动，虽然早盘仍面临一定阻力压制，但也仍运行在中轨等均线上方，多 头表现持稳，短期内，金价有望在避险需求和降息预期的支撑下保持强势，后市则仍有望突破阻力并继 续走强，触及进一步的目标位3458美元附近。 日图；金价自上周如期触及100日均线支撑止跌反弹，并重回60日及中轨等上方，看涨前景增强，目前 虽多头动力减缓，但也仍运行在众多均线上方，ZZ指标也未显示反弹触顶，暗示仍有望继续走强，再 度冲击3顶阻力压制的区域，所以操作上，依然还是看涨为主，即便是回落走低，下方60日或100日均线 支撑也是再度入场看涨的机会 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong rise in gold prices driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions and changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership [1][2] - On August 5, gold prices reached a peak of $3444 per ounce before slightly retreating to close at $3435 per ounce, reflecting a 0.25% increase in COMEX gold futures [1] - The announcement by Trump regarding the potential replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the geopolitical situation in Israel are significant factors influencing market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the recent surge in gold prices is supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, inflation pressures from tariffs, and changes in Federal Reserve personnel [2] - Short-term forecasts suggest that gold prices may remain strong, with a potential breakthrough of the recent high of $3390 per ounce, contingent on safe-haven demand and interest rate expectations [2] - Long-term outlooks emphasize that global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks will continue to support gold prices, with key variables being Trump's trade policies and the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy [2]

Macro News - The main focus is on the geopolitical tensions between the US and India regarding India's purchase of Russian oil, with President Trump threatening to impose significant tariffs on Indian goods if they continue these purchases [1] - The Swiss Federal Council is preparing to negotiate with the US after the announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, indicating a willingness to find a more attractive proposal to alleviate the current tariff situation [1] Employment Data and Federal Reserve - President Trump has accused the US Labor Department of manipulating the recent employment report to favor the Democratic Party, leading to the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director [2] - There is a significant expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with a 94.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting concerns over the deteriorating job market [2] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to the rising demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of monetary easing and a weakening dollar [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a significant rebound due to multiple favorable factors, including weak non-farm employment data and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2][5] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with prior months' figures revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [2][5] - Following the employment data release, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September surged to 84.8%, with a projected total of two cuts within the year, each by 50 basis points [2][5] Group 2 - Internal policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve have intensified, as two members voted against maintaining the current interest rate, indicating a split in the committee regarding future monetary policy [3] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler creates a vacancy that President Trump may fill with a potential future chair, further influencing the Fed's direction [3] - The imposition of new tariffs by the Trump administration has increased global trade uncertainty, which is expected to drive up demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4][5] Group 3 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the breakdown of ceasefire negotiations in Gaza have further heightened short-term demand for safe-haven assets [5] - The market is currently pricing in a significant likelihood of a rate cut in October, with expectations that inflation data will influence the Fed's decisions moving forward [5] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by persistent trade tensions, inflation risks, and the potential for a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy by the Fed [5] Group 4 - The performance of gold-related ETFs has been strong, with the Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) rising by 0.35% and attracting 427 million in investments over the past week [1][7] - Gold stocks are expected to perform well, with the SSH Gold Stock Index showing a 38.01% increase, outperforming the 28.51% rise in London gold prices during the same period [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, increasing the demand for hedging, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with the weakening employment leading to a rebound in the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in steps in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes increase hedging demand; the risk of US economic stagflation rises, and the weak employment situation leads to a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations. The new round of tariffs by Trump has caused a global stock market crash, and many countries are seeking renegotiation. The weak US employment growth in July and the significant downward revision of non - farm payrolls in the previous two months have increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September has soared from about 40% to about 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US bond yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold have increased, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold and gold T + D have also risen. There are changes in positions, inventories, and other aspects. For example, the position of Comex gold has decreased by 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Comex gold has decreased by 1.08% [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai gold of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total increased by 7,617, and the net short positions decreased by 133 [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight increase in recent visible inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver have changed, and domestic prices like Shanghai silver and silver T + D have also adjusted. There are also changes in positions, inventories, etc. For example, the position of Comex silver has decreased by 1.93% compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory has increased by 0.46% [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai silver of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total decreased by 2,778, and the net short positions increased by 5,610 [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets have decreased by 0.00%. There are also changes in indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index [8]. - **Inflation in the US**: Indicators such as CPI, core CPI, and PCE price index have changed. For example, the year - on - year CPI has increased by 0.30% [10]. - **US Economic Growth**: GDP has changed both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate has increased by 0.10%, and other labor - market indicators have also adjusted [10]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index has increased by 3.13%, while new home sales have decreased by 19.64% [10]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditures, and other indicators have changed. For example, the year - on - year retail sales have decreased by 1.84% [10]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate has increased by 0.16% [10]. - **US Trade**: Exports and imports have changed both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the trade balance has decreased by 18.69% [10]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The Michigan consumer confidence index has increased by 9.50%, while the small - and - medium - sized enterprise optimism index has decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have their own changes, and the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has also adjusted. For example, the global proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has increased by 4.11% [12]. - **Hedging Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index has increased by 51.84%, and the VIX index has decreased by 5.54% [12]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index has decreased by 2.70%, and the offshore RMB has increased by 0.65% [12]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in different periods from September 2025 to December 2026 is presented in the table, showing the changing trends of market expectations for interest - rate cuts [13].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising 2.23% on August 1, reaching a one-week high of $3363.37 per ounce, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to new tariff policies from the Trump administration [1][3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.39% to 98.68 on August 1, marking the largest single-day drop since April, which reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold and further supported its price increase [1][3] - The U.S. labor market showed signs of deterioration, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [3][4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90% following the disappointing employment report, with projections indicating two rate cuts by the end of the year [3][4] Political and Economic Context - President Trump imposed high tariffs on products from Canada, Brazil, and India, with rates reaching up to 50%, which led to a global stock market decline and increased market volatility [4][5] - The political fallout from the employment data included Trump's dismissal of a labor department official, raising concerns about the integrity of U.S. economic statistics [4][5] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler added to the uncertainty, as it opened a potential opportunity for Trump to reshape the Fed's leadership [5][6] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.6%, marking its largest drop in two months, while the yield curve inverted, indicating investor skepticism about traditional economic indicators [5][6] - The combination of weak employment data and political instability has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, providing new buying support in the market [6]

周一（08月04日）金价早盘压力位震荡盘整，市场追多短期布局方案。（8月1日）现货黄金价格飙升 2.23%，盘中触及一周新高3363.37美元/盎司，收盘报3363.16美元/盎司。这一波涨势不仅受到美国非农 就业数据意外疲软的推动，还受到特朗普政府最新关税政策引发的避险需求刺激。全球经济的不确定 性、美元的疲软以及美联储降息预期的升温，共同为黄金的上涨提供了强劲动能。周一（8月4日）亚市 早盘，现货黄金高位震荡，目前交投于3358.66美元/盎司附近。 从技术分析的角度看，黄金的上涨动能正在增强。金价已突破3330和3350美元的阻力位，周线收盘价若 能维持在这一水平上方，将为进一步上涨至3400美元打开空间。当前价格距离3400美元仅差约2%，显 示出多头强劲的进攻态势，鉴于降息预期的激进转变，黄金有望在短期内冲击3400美元/盎司。潜在回 调风险尽管看涨动能强劲，但市场也存在一定的回调风险，若金价跌破3330美元，可能触发进一步下 行，目标指向3300美元以及100日移动平均线。投资者需密切关注未来几周的关键经济数据，尤其是8月 就业报告，因为其结果将直接影响美联储9月会议的决策，从而对金价走势产生重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of weak U.S. non-farm payroll data, increased safe-haven demand due to tariff policies, and heightened global economic uncertainty [1][3][5] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 [3] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, indicating a weakening economic momentum [3] - The manufacturing PMI in the U.S. fell from 49.0 to 48.0, marking a contraction in the manufacturing sector [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 1.39% to 98.68, the largest single-day decline since April, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [4] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 24.1 basis points to 3.710%, while the ten-year yield decreased to 4.223%, reflecting strong market expectations for interest rate cuts [4] Group 3: Tariff Policies and Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on countries like Canada, Brazil, and India, leading to increased market volatility and a rise in safe-haven demand for gold [5] - Geopolitical tensions, including military actions in Gaza and attacks on Russian military enterprises, have further fueled market uncertainty and increased demand for gold [6] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90% following the weak employment data [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that no decision has been made regarding a September rate cut, highlighting internal disagreements within the Fed regarding economic conditions [8] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Gold has broken through key resistance levels at $3,330 and $3,350, with potential to challenge the $3,400 mark if the weekly close remains above these levels [10] - Analysts suggest that the shift in rate cut expectations will support gold's short-term price movements [10] Group 6: Future Considerations - The upcoming August employment data, to be released on September 5, will be crucial for determining the Fed's policy direction and could further influence gold prices [9] - While bullish sentiment is strong, there is a cautionary note regarding potential price corrections if gold falls below $3,330 [11]