Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has prepared a second list of retaliatory tariffs against the United States, amounting to €72 billion (approximately $84 billion), in response to the ongoing trade negotiations and threats from the Trump administration [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trade Negotiations - The EU is facing "huge differences" in trade negotiations with the US, particularly after President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods [2][3]. - The EU's initial list targeted $95 billion worth of US goods but was reduced after consultations with businesses and member states [2]. Retaliatory Measures - The EU's retaliatory measures include tariffs on industrial products, with over €65 billion of the €72 billion list consisting of industrial goods such as aircraft (€11 billion), machinery (€9.4 billion), and automobiles (€8 billion) [10][11]. - The EU is also considering measures against the US service sector and utilizing the strongest tools available, including anti-coercion measures [11]. Economic Impact - The proposed 30% tariff would significantly impact transatlantic trade relations, making it nearly impossible to maintain the current trade structure [5][10]. - Experts believe that the EU's negotiation stance has shifted from zero tariffs to accepting a 10% general tariff, indicating a significant concession [5][10]. Broader Trade Context - The EU is seeking to strengthen trade relations with like-minded partners and is considering cooperation with CPTPP members as part of its strategy to counter US tariffs [12]. - The World Bank has noted that by December 2024, the CPTPP will include countries that account for about 15% of global GDP, highlighting the EU's interest in engaging with both developed and emerging markets [12].

Core Viewpoint - The termination of the long-standing "Tomato Agreement" between the U.S. and Mexico has led to the imposition of a 17.09% tariff on most Mexican tomatoes, significantly impacting prices for consumers and businesses in the U.S. [1][4][6] Group 1: Impact on Consumers - The new tariff will increase costs for consumers in grocery stores and restaurants, particularly affecting items that use tomatoes, such as salads and pizzas [1][6] - The CEO of a major tomato distributor indicated that prices for tomatoes could rise by nearly 10% due to the new tariffs, which may lead to increased living costs for consumers across the U.S. [6][11] Group 2: Impact on Businesses - The new tariff threatens the livelihoods of tens of thousands of Mexican tomato farmers, with U.S. Department of Agriculture estimating a 5% reduction in Mexico's tomato exports this year [6][9] - Many U.S. businesses, particularly in the restaurant sector, are facing potential bankruptcy due to rising tomato prices, with some owners already considering menu price increases to cope with the costs [11][13] Group 3: Agricultural Sector Dynamics - Approximately 60% of fresh fruit and 40% of fresh vegetables in the U.S. are imported, with Mexico being the largest supplier [5] - The termination of the agreement is seen as a political move rather than a commercial one, with experts noting that U.S. growers may not be able to fill the gap left by reduced imports from Mexico [9][11] Group 4: Employment Effects - The reduction in tomato imports could lead to a decrease in related job opportunities, with previous reports indicating that importing and selling fresh tomatoes from Mexico supports around 47,000 full-time and part-time jobs in the U.S. [9][11]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on the EU, which has led to significant frustration among EU member states [1][2] - The EU initially attempted to negotiate a balanced tariff of 10% but ended up facing a unilateral 30% tariff, indicating a failure in their negotiation strategy [1] - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's decision to delay countermeasures against the U.S. has been criticized as a missed opportunity for a strong response [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government is focused on implementing new customs tariffs rather than considering the impact on consumer prices, showcasing a hardline stance [2] - The EU's response has been perceived as weak, with the Commission acting as a spokesperson for U.S. policies rather than defending EU interests [2] - The situation highlights the vulnerability of the EU in the face of U.S. trade policies, suggesting that the EU may be seen as a tool for U.S. interests rather than a unified entity [2]

Group 1: Domestic Policy Insights - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of international operations for domestic enterprises, highlighting the increasing significance of overseas investments for domestic economic development [11] - The recent meeting between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Brazilian President Lula underscores the strengthening of China-Brazil relations, with bilateral trade reaching a record $181.5 billion in 2023 [11] - The Chinese government is committed to enhancing support for enterprises operating abroad, focusing on financial, insurance, and safety measures to create a better environment for business [11] Group 2: Overseas Policy Insights - The U.S. has initiated a new round of tariff pressures, threatening high tariffs on 25 countries if they do not comply with U.S. demands by August 1 [19] - The tariffs range from 25% to 50% depending on the country, with significant implications for international trade dynamics [19] - The U.S. administration's focus on reducing trade deficits may lead to further escalations in trade tensions, impacting global markets [19] Group 3: Equity Market Analysis - A-shares have shown a positive trend, with major indices like the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising nearly 2% in the past week, driven by improved market sentiment [25] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 24.119 billion yuan during the second week of July, indicating strong investor interest in A-shares [25] - The MSCI China A-share Index also saw a 1.06% increase, reflecting overall market optimism [25] Group 4: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in open market operations last week [49] - The 10-year government bond yield has shown slight recovery, reflecting market adjustments to the evolving monetary policy landscape [49] - The expansion of the Bond Connect program to include more non-bank institutions is expected to enhance overseas asset allocation opportunities for domestic investors [50] Group 5: Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals have continued to decline, while precious metals have rebounded slightly, indicating mixed trends in the commodity market [49] - The IEA reports that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, which may impact oil prices moving forward [49] - The Chinese government has set clear goals for new urbanization, which may influence agricultural and commodity markets in the long term [49]

美国总统特朗普警告称，将从8月1日起对欧盟征收30%的关税，此举不仅让欧盟震惊，据报道一些欧盟 官员甚至认为这让美国自己的谈判代表也感到意外。 "可以看到目前清单上主要是工业品，其次是具有关税回击代表意义的一些农业产品。" 欧盟已确定第二份对美关税反制清单，同时发出了对谈判进程的最新警告。 当地时间14日，欧盟委员会（下称"欧委会"）负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员谢夫乔维奇称，如果美 欧贸易谈判失败，欧盟准备对价值720亿欧元（约合840亿美元）的美国进口商品征收额外反制关税。 同时，他还称，在美国特朗普政府威胁对欧盟征收30%关税后，美欧贸易谈判存在"巨大分歧"。 据悉，这份反制措施清单上的商品包括波音公司飞机、汽车和波本威士忌等，该清单最初针对总价值 950亿欧元的美国商品，但在与企业和欧盟成员国磋商后被缩减。目前，各成员国批准后，清单才能通 过。 对外经济贸易大学法国经济研究中心主任、巴黎索邦大学博士生导师赵永升对第一财经记者表示，此前 欧盟在7月就公布了上述第二份征税清单，通过公众咨询的方式讨论关税加税程度；公布该清单，也有 让压力渗透到所有被涉及的美国企业和财团的意图，随后倒逼美国利益相关方回国游说 ...

实际上，美国对所谓的"对等关税"早已信心不足，这种损人不利己的招数要落地执行将会遭遇巨大阻 力，因此生效日期一拖再拖，从最开始的4月9日再给90天缓冲期，在大限将至的7月9日又延长到8月1 日，本来划定最后期限是美国的极限施压，可是一退再退的日子，让全世界看到了美国的色厉内苒，现 在签是立刻输，观望中国的态度和后续行动，拖下去就有可能赢。对中美新一轮会谈，中国始终持乐观 开放态度，有意愿继续交流，保持积极沟通，两国经济体量大，涉及层面广，细节多，距离达成最终协 议尚有一段路走，美国只是着急喊话没有用，必须拿出诚意落到实处，与我们相向而行，这样才能做好 榜样。 美国发出全球加税令，谁都没吓倒，首批14国竟无一低头，财长贝森特急忙喊话中国，再见一面吧。近 日，美国方面陆续向日本、韩国等14个国家发出关税信函，将从8月1日起分别对来自这14个国家的进口 产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。本以为经过90天的缓冲，这些国家能够"认清形势"，没想到竟然都不 准备服软，传统盟友日本和韩国被征税25%，表示要"继续周旋下去"，其他国家最高征税达到40%，泰 国甚至喊出了"战斗到底"的口号。面对如此棘手情况，美国急需寻找到解决 ...

Policy and Macro Analysis - The report highlights the increasing internationalization of Chinese enterprises, emphasizing their importance to domestic economic development as stated by Premier Li Qiang during a meeting with Chinese companies in Brazil [11] - The U.S. has initiated a new round of tariff pressures, threatening high tariffs on 25 countries if they do not comply with U.S. demands by August 1 [19][24] - The report notes that the U.S. tariffs vary significantly by country, with Brazil facing a 50% tariff, while other countries like Japan and South Korea face tariffs of 25% [23] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares have shown a positive trend, with major indices like the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising nearly 2% in the past week, influenced by the U.S.-China discussions [4][27] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached 24.119 billion yuan during the second week of July, indicating strong investor interest [27] - The MSCI China A-share Index increased by 1.06% during the same period, reflecting overall market optimism [27] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China has signaled a commitment to increasing monetary easing, with a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in open market operations last week [47] - The DR007 rate remained low, dropping to 1.46% on July 8, indicating a relaxed liquidity environment [47] Commodity Market Analysis - The report notes a decline in non-ferrous metals prices, while crude oil has seen a slight recovery, and precious metals have rebounded [5] - The IEA has reported that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, impacting commodity pricing strategies [5] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index has shown slight strengthening, closing at 97.87, while the Chinese yuan depreciated to 7.17 against the dollar [5] - The report indicates that the continuous increase in foreign exchange reserves and the expansion of gold reserves by the central bank reflect a stable financial strategy [5] Major Asset Rotation Outlook - The report suggests a cautious approach to asset rotation in July, emphasizing the need to prevent overheating in the market [5] - It anticipates further fiscal expansion and moderate monetary easing to address potential uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical risks [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to Japan, coinciding with the upcoming Japanese Senate elections, which may influence U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, particularly regarding the proposed 25% "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [1][2] - Nomura Securities reports that the Japanese government is coordinating a meeting between Yellen and Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizuki Ryozo, to discuss the recent tariff proposals [1] - The report indicates that while a breakthrough in trade negotiations is unlikely in the immediate future, even a delay in the implementation of tariffs could limit the upward movement of the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The articles note that U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo's visit to Japan may also facilitate discussions on tariffs for specific industries, including the automotive sector [1] - There is a historical context suggesting that any potential meeting between Yellen and Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, could significantly impact exchange rate trends, as previous discussions hinted at U.S. efforts to curb the rise of the USD/JPY [2] - Kato has indicated that he does not plan to meet with Yellen next week, as he is likely to attend the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in South Africa, which may lead the market to anticipate discussions on exchange rates if he cancels his trip [1][2]

Market Analysis - The "anti-involution" policy expectations are heating up in industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, and steel, and the prices of some commodities are recovering. The comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition can focus on industries like steel, refining, and new energy vehicles [2]. - In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience [2]. - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded, mainly driven by some raw material industries. The foundation for domestic economic stabilization still needs to be consolidated [2]. - In late June 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In June, China's social financing increment was 4.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to May [2]. - In June, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year, with faster - growing industries including integrated circuits, ships, and automobiles. Imports increased by 1.1%, with fast - growing items such as zero - accessories of automatic data processing equipment and fresh fruits [2]. - Service consumption is the key to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, and the main short - board lies in supply [2]. - Small and medium - sized banks need to balance investment returns and risk - taking in bond investments [2]. - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US has shifted from the "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary" stage to the "easier to loosen, harder to tighten" policy stage [3]. - The "equivalent tariff" 2.0 phase has officially started, with different tariff increases on countries such as Japan, South Korea, the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Trump also threatened to impose a "unified tariff" on other countries [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [4]. Important News - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. Household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, and enterprise loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan [6]. - At the end of June, the balance of M2 was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increment of social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6]. - In June, China's exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. The trade surplus was $1147.7 billion [6]. - The People's Bank of China stated that it does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through exchange - rate depreciation and will maintain the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [6]. - The yield of Japan's 40 - year government bonds rose 16.5 basis points to 3.49%, and the yield of 20 - year government bonds reached the highest level since 2000 [6].

Group 1 - The core issue is the unexpected imposition of a 25% tariff on all goods exported from Japan and South Korea to the US, which has led to a significant deterioration in relations between these countries and the US [2][4][13] - Japan and South Korea are seeking to reduce their military dependence on the US and are taking steps towards greater autonomy in security matters, marking a shift in their long-standing alliance with the US [1][9][11] - The tariffs have caused immediate economic repercussions, with stock markets in Tokyo and Seoul dropping sharply, and major companies like Toyota and Hyundai experiencing significant losses in market value [2][4] Group 2 - Japan's government is considering selling US Treasury bonds as a countermeasure against the tariffs, indicating a potential shift in financial relations [6] - South Korea is accelerating the development of its domestic defense systems and has signed agreements to acquire advanced military technology from Russia, showcasing a move away from reliance on US military support [11][15] - The military cooperation between the US, Japan, and South Korea is under strain, with joint exercises being scaled back and Japan asserting more control over its defense budget and strategies [13][15][17] Group 3 - The crisis triggered by the tariffs is seen as a turning point in US-Japan-South Korea relations, with both countries taking significant steps to assert their independence from US influence [17] - The potential for an "Asian version of NATO" is being questioned as Japan and South Korea explore new military partnerships and defense strategies outside of the US framework [15][17]