公司点评报告 · 食品饮料行业 保持稳健增长态势,规模跃居行业第三 2024 年度和 2025Q1 业绩点评 2025 年 04月 30 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 36010.99 | 39328.45 | 43202.18 | 46878.90 | | 收入增长率% | 12.79 | 9.21 | 9.85 | 8.51 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 12242.88 | 13104.64 | 14532.14 | 15822.83 | | 利润增速% | 17.29 | 7.04 | 10.89 | 8.88 | | 毛利率% | 76.20 | 76.84 | 77.65 | 78.06 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 10.04 | 10.74 | 11.91 | 12.97 | | PE | 20.34 | 19.00 | 17.13 | 15.74 | | PB | 7.16 | 5.55 | 4.19 | 3.31 | 资 ...

推荐 ( 维持) 股价:202.99元 行情走势图 相关研究报告 公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年04月30日 山西汾酒(600809.SH) 全价格带发力，业绩稳中有进 【平安证券】山西汾酒（600809.SH）*季报点评*省 内市场扎实，收入稳定增长*推荐20241030 证券分析师 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 事项： 山西汾酒发布2024年年报与2025年1季报。2024年公司实现营收360亿元，同 比+12.8%，归母净利122亿元，同比+17.3%，其中4Q24营收47亿元，同 比-10.2%，归母净利8.9亿元，同比-11.3%。1Q25公司实现营收165亿元，同 比+7.7%，归母净利66亿元，同比+6.2%。2024年公司拟每股派发现金股利 3.60元（含税），2024年拟总分红74亿元，占当期归母净利的60.4%。 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522030001 WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S10605231000 ...

作者︱懂酒哥 随着2024年白酒上市公司财报的陆续披露，徽酒四大上市酒企的发展态势逐渐明晰。 作为区域龙头的古井贡酒，凭借持续扩大的营收与利润增速，不断挤压其他三家酒企的市场空间；曾经稳坐行业第二的口子窖，在与迎驾贡酒的较量中渐落 下风，而迎驾贡酒凭借强劲的增长势头，市场地位愈发稳固；反观金种子酒，在激烈的竞争中处境艰难，不仅营收大幅下滑，还陷入了持续亏损的困境…… 2024年，安徽4家白酒上市企业合计实现归母净利润95.04亿元，同比增长10.82%；实现营业收入378.62亿元，同比增长10.05%。而在徽酒整体稳健增长的现 象背后，却是4家酒企的竞争格局出现明显分化。 懂酒哥发现，徽酒龙头古井贡酒的领先优势进一步扩大。2024年，古井贡酒实现归母净利润55.17亿元，超过行业第二名与第三名的利润总和；净利润增速 高达46.01%，在4家企业中排名第一。 营收方面，古井贡酒实现营业收入235.78亿元，同比增长16.41%，不仅远超第二名迎驾贡酒8.46%的营收增速，营收规模更是比其余3家企业总和高出90亿 元。这种显著的差距，凸显出徽酒市场"强者恒强"的竞争态势。 在产品布局上，古井贡酒构建了覆盖百元至 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 18.4 billion in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 21%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 billion, up 30% year-over-year [1] - The overseas market performance was strong, with overseas revenue reaching 13.495 billion in 2024, a growth rate of 31.82%, and self-owned brand overseas revenue increasing by 51% [2] - The company's profitability improved in Q1 2025, with a gross profit margin of 22.6%, up 2.52 percentage points year-over-year, and a net profit margin of 12%, up 1.2 percentage points year-over-year [3] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In 2024, the revenue from refrigerators and freezers was 15.5 billion (up 19% YoY), washing machines revenue was 2.7 billion (up 33% YoY), and other businesses generated 150 million (down 11% YoY) [2] - The company is rapidly expanding its self-owned brand in overseas markets, with significant growth in the global strategy from Hefei appliances [2] Profitability - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 23% (down 0.65 percentage points YoY), while the net profit margin was 10.6% (up 0.44 percentage points YoY) [3] - The company has enhanced its manufacturing capabilities for high-end products, significantly improving profitability [3] Financial Forecast - The company expects revenues of 20.5 billion, 22.7 billion, and 24.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 1.17 billion, 1.3 billion, and 1.44 billion for the same years [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.08, 1.20, and 1.33 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [8]

事件: 2025 年4 月27 日，古井贡酒发布2024 年报及2025 年一季报。2024年公司实现营业总收入235.78 亿元， 同比+16.41%；归母净利润55.17亿元，同比+20.22%；扣非归母净利润54.57 亿元，同比+21.40%。 2025Q1公司实现营业总收入91.46 亿元，同比+10.38%；归母净利润23.30 亿元，同比+12.78%；扣非归 母净利润23.12 亿元，同比+12.78%。 投资要点: 盈利预测和投资评级：公司设定2025 年目标为：营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长。我们认为公司基 本面经营稳健，产品结构有望持续升级，年份原浆系列产品预计将延续较快增长。我们调整公司盈利预 测， 预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为259.83/286.85/319.27 亿元，归母净利润分别为 61.63/68.59/75.92亿元，EPS 分别为11.66/12.98/14.36 元，对应PE 分别为15/13/12X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：1）消费力下行抑制行业需求；2）宏观经济大幅波动；3）行业政策发生变化；4）营销工作 执行效果不达预期；5）价格改革的市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations, with revenue and net profit showing significant growth compared to the previous quarter and year [3][8]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025: Revenue reached 9.146 billion (+10.4%), with net profit at 2.330 billion (+12.8%) and non-recurring net profit at 2.312 billion (+12.8%) [1]. - Q4 2024: Revenue was 4.509 billion (+4.9%), net profit at 0.771 billion (-0.7%), and non-recurring net profit at 0.758 billion (+0.7%) [2]. - Full Year 2024: Revenue totaled 23.578 billion (+16.4%), net profit at 5.517 billion (+20.2%), and non-recurring net profit at 5.457 billion (+21.4%) [2]. Product and Regional Performance - Q1 2025: Continued strong performance in product segments, particularly for products 古8 and 古16, while 古20 remained stable due to industry demand fluctuations [4]. - In 2024, the company saw significant revenue growth in key products: 年份原浆 (+17.3%), 古井贡酒 (+11.2%), and 黄鹤楼 (+15.1%), with 年份原浆's revenue share in the liquor business increasing to 79.1% [5]. Profitability - Q1 2025: Gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 79.7%, attributed to increased channel expenses, while net profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 25.5% [6]. - Full Year 2024: Gross margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 79.9%, driven by product mix improvements [6]. Market Dynamics - Q1 2025: Revenue and contract liabilities decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, with cash sales down by 1.6%, indicating pressure on industry demand affecting channel collection [7]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting revenue growth of 10.4% to 32.609 billion by 2027, with net profit expected to grow by 13.3% to 8.236 billion [8].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2024年实现营收3221.16亿元，同比-6.50%，归母净利润73.62亿元，同比-38.36%；2024Q4实现营收792.60亿 元，环比-0.43%，同比-11.43%，归母净利润14.80亿元，环比+10.63%，同比-58.82%；2025Q1实现营收728.80 亿元，环比-8.05%，同比-9.82%；归母净利润24.34亿元，环比+64.49%，同比+26.37%。 2024年公司钢材产量同比-1.02%，吨钢毛利-19.68% 四大基地持续建设品种钢产能，公司产品结构有望持续升级 2025 年，公司预算安排固定资产投资资金239.1亿元，主要用于宝山基地无取向硅钢产品结构优化（三步）、 超高等级取 ...

古井贡酒（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000596） 公司点评 | 产品结构升级持续 | | --- | ——古井贡酒 24 年报&25Q1 点评 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-04-28 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 167.11 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元）280.00/139.02 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 529 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 409 | | 流通股比例（%） | 77.30 | | 总市值（亿元） | 883 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 683 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫ 收入：产品结构升级持续 ⚫ 利润：盈利能力提升持续兑现 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报告 -56% -35% -15% 6% 27% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 古井贡酒 沪深300 ...

2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 Q1 归母净利润率创近 5 个季度新高，分红确定性增强提升中长期投资价值 ——宝钢股份（600019.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件： 2024 年实现营收 3221.16 亿元，同比-6.50%，归母净利润 73.62 亿元， 同比-38.36%；2024Q4 实现营收 792.60 亿元，环比-0.43%，同比-11.43%，归 母净利润 14.80 亿元，环比+10.63%，同比-58.82%；2025Q1 实现营收 728.80 亿元，环比-8.05%，同比-9.82%；归母净利润 24.34 亿元，环比+64.49%，同 比+26.37%。 2024 年公司钢材产量同比-1.02%，吨钢毛利-19.68%：2024 年度，钢材产品产 量 5141 万吨，同比-1.02%，其中冷热轧产量为 4206 万吨，同比-0.45%，长材 产量为 424 万吨，同比-7.42%，厚板产量为 428 万吨；2024 年钢材产品吨钢毛 利 167 元，同比-19.68%，其中冷热轧吨毛利为 193 元，同比-20.48%，长材吨 毛利为 8 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) [1] Core Views - The company continues to show strong profit growth, with Q1 2025 total revenue and net profit reaching 3.827 billion and 165 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 7% and 61% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 improved to 43% and 6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6 and 2.3 percentage points [5] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with the flagship product Yanjing U8 maintaining over 30% growth in sales volume [6] - The company has launched a new soda product, Best Soda, to complement its beer offerings and enhance market presence [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 0.51, 0.62, and 0.75 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 21, and 17 times [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 total revenue was 3.827 billion yuan, with a net profit of 165 million yuan, showing a 7% and 61% year-on-year growth respectively [5] - The operating cash flow and sales collection improved significantly, with operating cash flow reaching 1.333 billion yuan, up 49% year-on-year [5] Product Strategy - The company sold 995,000 tons of beer in Q1 2025, with Yanjing U8 leading the growth [6] - The introduction of high-end products and the "beer + soda" strategy aims to capture a broader consumer base [6] Earnings Forecast - The report projects a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with a forecasted net profit of 1.436 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 36.1% growth [9] - The report emphasizes the ongoing optimization of the sales structure and cost control measures as key drivers for profitability [7]