Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated May 22, 2025, with analysts Dai Hongxu and Yu Weihan [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with persistent supply over - capacity pressure. The approaching of the wet season in the Southwest will increase production and inventory, while demand remains weak. Polycrystalline silicon is in a state of alternating fundamentals and delivery logic, with high - inventory pressure and weakening downstream demand [3] Price Forecast and Volatility Industrial Silicon - The price of the industrial silicon main contract faces strong resistance at 8,500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.6% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 75.4% [2] Polycrystalline Silicon - The polycrystalline silicon main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 34,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.91% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 89% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, sell industrial silicon/polycrystalline silicon futures (SI2507/PS2507) with a 60% hedging ratio, rated 3 out of 5. For high - inventory and impairment risks, sell call options with an 80% hedging ratio (rated 4) and buy out - of - the - money put options (rated 3) [2] Procurement Management - To prevent future raw material price increases, buy industrial silicon/polycrystalline silicon forward contracts according to the production plan, with the hedging ratio based on the plan (rated 1). Also, sell put options (rated 2) and buy out - of - the - money call options (rated 1) [2] Core Contradictions Industrial Silicon - Supply over - capacity persists due to the approaching wet season and expected production increases in the Southwest. Demand is weak, with downstream reduction and production cut expectations [3] Polycrystalline Silicon - The market alternates between fundamentals and delivery logic. High - inventory pressure exists on the supply side, and downstream demand weakens after the photovoltaic installation rush. There may be a contradiction between the main contract's open interest and the number of warehouse receipts [3] 利多/Positive Factors Industrial Silicon - Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand. Cost reduction space is limited, providing strong cost support [4] Polycrystalline Silicon - Potential capacity integration and clearance plans or agreements may improve the industry situation. Low willingness for enterprise delivery may lead to a delivery - based market [4] 利空/Negative Factors Industrial Silicon - The approaching wet season will increase production in the Southwest. Downstream polycrystalline silicon enterprises' joint production cuts will further weaken demand. Inventory continues to accumulate [4] Polycrystalline Silicon - Failure of enterprise capacity integration and clearance, and continuous inventory accumulation with weak demand [4] Price and Volume Data Industrial Silicon - The main contract's latest price is 7,880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan, a weekly decrease of 530 yuan (- 6.30%), and a yearly decrease of 36.14%. The trading volume is 208,397 lots, and the open interest is 183,690 lots [6] Polycrystalline Silicon - The main contract's latest price is 35,860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 235 yuan, a weekly decrease of 2,560 yuan (- 6.66%). The trading volume is 157,225 lots, and the open interest is 73,488 lots [6] Spot Price Data Industrial Silicon - Spot prices of different grades and regions show declines. For example, the average price of East China 553 is 8,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 1.14%) [11] Inventory Data - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 65,298 lots, down 355 lots (- 1.85%). Inventory in various delivery warehouses shows different changes, with some decreasing [19]