2026 年 2 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】涨价开始向下游传导——2026 年 1 月价格数据点评 1 月受春节错月、鲜菜价格超季节性下跌影响，CPI 同比涨幅明显回落，但上行趋势 依然延续。一是，原材料涨价对下游耐用消费品传导持续；二是，中央一号文件指出 "强化生猪产能综合调控"，或加快生猪去产能进程，预计下半年猪价有望温和改善。 PPI 方面，环比涨幅明显加快，涨价领域进一步扩散，与输入性影响扩大以及国内"反 内卷"政策深化有关，预计二季度 PPI 同比有望回正。 【宏观】如何解读 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告——2025Q4 货币政策执行报告 学习体会 2025Q4 货政报告中，央行肯定了国内经济工作成果和物价回升的积极变化，对 2026 年国内经济增长较为乐观。货币政策基调不变，提出要稳定短端利率，可能顺应推出 相应政策工具；降息更需要"择时"，但应关注汇率持续升值对货币政策调节的影响； 重申货币政策和财政政策的协同配合，关注到"大资管"行业内部资金流动产生的摩 擦，流动性总体无忧，利好国内股债市场。风险提示：货币宽松力度不及预期，财政 政策落地进度不及预期 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for increased dividend rates in the steel and aluminum sectors, supported by favorable conditions such as market value management, high dividend stocks being a core strategy for insurance capital allocation, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures within the industry [5] - Companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are identified as having strong dividend potential as they prepare for 2026 [5] Group 2 - Newhan New Materials (301076.SZ) plans to raise no more than 1 billion yuan to establish itself as a leader in the PEEK full industry chain, with funds allocated for projects including the production of high-performance resins and composite materials [5] - Kingsoft (3888.HK) is currently in a period of adjustment for its gaming business, but the stable growth of its office business, driven by AI and innovation, provides strong support for its valuation, especially given its substantial cash reserves and significant equity discount [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a forecast for Kingsoft Software's Q4 2025 performance, indicating a revenue decline in gaming but growth in office software, highlighting a structural differentiation in business performance [4]. Group 1: Gaming Business - The gaming revenue is expected to decline by 29% year-on-year in Q4 2025, primarily due to the high base effect of the core product "Jian Wang 3" and the underwhelming performance of the new game "Jie Xian Ji" [5]. - For the full year of 2025, gaming revenue is projected to decrease by 27% to 3.8 billion yuan [5]. - The new game "E-Duck Kill," set to launch in 2026, shows strong social attributes and potential, with 5 million new users on the first day of public testing and over 10 million within six days [5]. Group 2: Office Business - The office business is anticipated to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q4 2025, driven by three main business lines [6]. - The personal business segment, with WPS Office achieving 669 million monthly active devices, shows a significant increase in user engagement, particularly on PC [6]. - WPS365 is expected to continue high double-digit revenue growth due to its integrated "collaboration + AI" advantages [7].

Core Insights - The National Information Innovation Park in Beijing has reached 1,000 resident enterprises, forming a complete industrial chain from hardware to software and application solutions [1][2] - The park is a key part of China's digital economy strategy, transitioning from a "single replacement" phase to a collaborative innovation cycle across the entire industry chain [2] - The park aims to attract companies in AI, 6G, quantum computing, and other cutting-edge technologies, establishing a comprehensive ecosystem from computing power to application scenarios [2][3] Group 1: Industry Development - The National Information Innovation Park covers an area of 1.7 million square meters and includes enterprises in CPU/GPU, operating systems, databases, servers, and cybersecurity [2] - The park will focus on four major areas: AI full-stack ecosystem, next-generation communication technologies, quantum computing, and immersive interaction technologies [2][3] - The Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone (经开区) is experiencing significant growth in new industrial dynamics, particularly in AI, 6G, and quantum technologies [3] Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Beijing government has set higher requirements for the "Three Cities and One District" development model, emphasizing the transformation of scientific achievements into practical applications [4] - The government aims to strengthen the integration of technology, education, and talent development to create an attractive environment for businesses and residents [4][7] - The city plans to lead in building an international technology innovation center, focusing on original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs [8]

近日，浙江省经济和信息化厅正式公布浙江省数字经济发展优秀案例名单，麒麟信安与中共浙江省委党 校联合打造的"浙江省委党校信创云桌面"案例成功入选。这是该案例继斩获国家工信部示范案例后，再 度斩获省级重磅嘉奖，实现国家级、省级双重权威认可，彰显了麒麟信安在云计算领域的过硬创新实力 与卓越应用成效。 该方案大幅提升党校教学管理效能，管理员通过黄金镜像可完成一次适配、学员批量复用，结合党校教 学周期特点，实现学员结业后信息自动清除，保障数据安全的同时，高效解决身份认证、桌面部署与回 收等难题。此外，低功耗云终端替换传统高功率PC，搭配后台批量关机管控，大幅降低电能消耗与运 维、数据恢复成本，实现节能环保与降本增效双赢。 目前，麒麟信安信创云桌面解决方案已在国内多个重点项目落地见效，为各行业信创转型与数智化升级 树立了示范样板。未来，麒麟信安将持续深耕场景化创新，推出更多贴合行业需求的解决方案，助力各 类用户在数字经济高质量发展道路上稳步前行。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 据悉，此次省级优秀案例评选，旨在深入推进数字经济创新提质"一号发展工程"，深化国家数字经济创 新发展试验区建设，加 ...

Group 1 - Company Zhongfu Information (300659) has achieved significant cooperation in the military security sector, focusing on nuclear safety and vessel military technology [1] - The strategic cooperation with Beijing Zhongke Huahui Technology Development Co., Ltd. aims to enhance collaboration in carrier and terminal security technologies [1] - The partnership with Beijing Zhongchuan Hanguang Information Technology Co., Ltd. will promote lifecycle management and trusted product development in the shipbuilding military sector [1] Group 2 - Zhongfu Information's stock price has shown a fluctuating upward trend, reaching 15.84 yuan with a daily increase of 1.80% as of February 11, 2026 [2] - Over the past five days, the stock has accumulated a rise of 6.67%, outperforming the broader market index [2] - The stock's trading volume indicates increased activity, with a turnover of approximately 65.16 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.18% [2] Group 3 - Institutional outlook on Zhongfu Information is moderately optimistic for the medium to long term, with a projected net profit of 170 million yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 251.79% year-on-year [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 are estimated at 14.95 billion yuan, with net profit expected to rise to 387 million yuan in 2026 [3] - Current institutional ratings are primarily neutral, with low research frequency but strong expectations for profit improvement based on potential orders in military and trusted innovation sectors [3]

截至2026年2月11日 10点41分，中证信息技术应用创新产业指数上涨0.47%，成分股绿盟科技上涨 15.28%，博睿数据上涨8.55%，东方国信上涨7.95%，奇安信上涨4.67%，安恒信息上涨4.58%。信创 ETF（562570）上涨0.53%，冲击3连涨。最新价报1.53元。 相关ETF：信创ETF（562570）紧密跟踪中证信创指数，突出国产全栈替代，涵盖存储、CPU、AIPC等 关键环节，并积极融入DeepSeek生态（72%）与AI应用（58%），构建从底层硬件到行业智能的安全可 控体系，政策确定性强。目前，信创ETF（562570）为同类规模最大的ETF。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面上，千问宣布推出新一代图像生成基础模型Qwen-Image-2.0。阿里云百炼上已开通API邀测，开 发者也可通过Qwen Chat（chat.qwen.ai）免费体验新模型。 中银国际认为，2026年大模型迎来"春节档"，豆包2.0、SeedDance 2.0、Qwen 3.5等国内头部厂商大模 型有望在春节前后迎来密集更新，当前情绪低点、利空落地后迎来密集产业催化，AI应用或有望迎来 触底反弹，建议 ...

2026 年 2 月 11 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】"安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利率曲线？——《光大投资时钟》 系列第二十九篇 地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的上行本质是财政 扩张服务于国家安全的结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高通胀下推行的财政扩 张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属性。在美国中期选举之前，特朗普带来的宏 观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显现出"避风港"属性。风险提 示：地缘危机升级超预期；美国经济超预期走弱并引发风险偏好下行；美国对关键矿 产加征关税政策调整；海外巨头 AI 资本开支低于预期。 【海外策略】恒生科技：战略配置区间已至，逆势布局正当时——港股策略观点更新 当前恒生科技指数已形成"超卖估值洼地 + 资金逆势抢筹 + AI 基本面向上 + 回购 加码在即"的四重底部特征，短期情绪扰动充分释放，风险收益比显著优化，是中长 期战略配置的黄金窗口。优先配置恒生科技 ETF，兼具互联网龙头、AI 应用、算力等 全板块标的，个股配置方向：优先配置"AI+平台"双主线龙头标的，聚焦商业化落 地快、现金流稳健、估 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Corporation (3888.HK) [5] Core Insights - Kingsoft is expected to experience a structural differentiation in its performance, with gaming business under pressure while office software shows strong growth driven by AI and digital transformation [1][3] - The gaming revenue is projected to decline by 29% year-on-year in 4Q25, while the office business is anticipated to grow by 15% year-on-year in the same period [2][3] - The company has a strong cash position and significant undervaluation of its core equity holdings, providing a safety net against short-term performance fluctuations [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 4Q25, Kingsoft's revenue is expected to be 2.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% [1] - The operating profit margin is projected to improve to 19% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with an annual operating profit margin of approximately 19% for 2025 [1] Gaming Business Outlook - The gaming segment is forecasted to see a revenue drop of 27% year-on-year for 2025, totaling 3.8 billion RMB [2] - The new game "Goose Duck" is expected to drive recovery in 2026, having shown strong user engagement with 5 million new users on its first day of public testing [2] Office Business Performance - The office software segment is expected to benefit from the deepening of digital transformation in government and enterprises, with WPS Office achieving 669 million monthly active devices [3] - The integration of AI features is anticipated to enhance user engagement and conversion rates, contributing to sustained revenue growth [3] Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report revises the net profit forecast for 2025 to 1.29 billion RMB, down from a previous estimate of 2.07 billion RMB, while introducing a 2027 net profit forecast of 1.6 billion RMB [4] - The company is seen to have a high safety margin due to its robust cash reserves and significant equity undervaluation, suggesting potential for performance rebound post-2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Cable announced a joint investment and related transaction to establish a technology joint venture, aiming to expand its digital infrastructure and foster new growth points in the "culture + technology" integration sector [2][5]. Group 1: Investment and Partnership - Jiangsu Cable, along with its controlling shareholder Jiangsu Cultural Technology Holding Group and five other non-related parties, will jointly establish a technology joint venture focused on intelligent computing equipment [3][7]. - The registered capital of the joint venture is set at 150 million yuan, with all shareholders contributing cash [8]. Group 2: Shareholding Structure - Jiangsu Cultural Technology Holding Group will contribute 51 million yuan, holding a 34% stake; Jiangsu Cable will invest 30 million yuan for a 20% stake; Yunqian Information Technology Co., Ltd. will invest 28.5 million yuan for a 19% stake; Shanghai Yizhi Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. will invest 15 million yuan for a 10% stake; Intercity Cloud (Jiangsu) Technology Co., Ltd. and Suqian Churun Data Group Co., Ltd. will each invest 9 million yuan for a 6% stake; and Nanjing New Port Development Co., Ltd. will invest 7.5 million yuan for a 5% stake [4][8]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - This transaction is a significant move for the company to respond to national strategies, expand its digital infrastructure layout, and cultivate new growth points, facilitating entry into high-value sectors such as intelligent computing and trusted innovation [4][8].