Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The necessity for supply-side reform in the photovoltaic industry is highlighted due to ongoing profitability pressures, with over 150 companies expected to face bankruptcy or liquidation by mid-2025 [2] - The industry has experienced significant price declines since Q4 2023, leading to widespread losses among major companies, with a notable shift towards a cash-negative state by Q1 2025 [2][11] - The demand for photovoltaic products is expected to rebound in the medium to long term as energy storage economics improve, particularly after the implementation of the "136 Document" [3][20] Summary by Sections Event Description - Major polysilicon manufacturers raised prices to 37 CNY/kg as of July 7, 2025, with full costs estimated above 39-40 CNY/kg [1][11] Event Commentary - The photovoltaic sector has seen leading companies enter a phase of substantial losses since Q4 2023, necessitating coordinated supply-side reforms among key industry players [2] - Historical supply-side reforms in related industries have led to significant increases in Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating potential for recovery in the photovoltaic sector [2][14] Industry Performance - In May 2025, photovoltaic grid connections reached 9.3 GW, a 388% year-on-year increase, but demand is expected to face short-term pressure due to earlier overcapacity [3][20] - The future of photovoltaic demand is contingent on achieving price parity in energy storage solutions, which is anticipated to unlock new market opportunities [3][20]

并入 TCL科技 合并范围； TCL科技 对深圳市华星光电半导体显示技术有限公司21.5311%股权 的收购已于2025年7月1日完成工商变更，进一步提升 公司 的竞争优势 。 7月9日晚，TCL科技、瑞联新材相继披露2025年及上半年业绩预告，两家公司均预计报告期内业 绩同向上升。 TCL科技：预估上半年 半导体 显示业务净利润超46亿元 2025年上半年，TCL科技预计实现营收 826亿元-906亿元，同比增长3%-13%；归属于上市公 司股东的净利润 18亿元-20亿元，同比增长81%-101%；扣除非经常性损益后归属于上市公司 股东的净利润 15亿元-16.5亿元，同比增长168%-195%。 报告显示，TCL科技聚焦半导体显示、新能源光伏和半导体材料业务的核心主业发展。 其中，半导体显示业务预计上半年实现净利润超46亿元，同比增长超70%。 大尺寸显示领域，供 给侧格局进一步优化，高端化及大尺寸化趋势拉动面积需求继续 增长， 主要产品价格相对稳定、 随需求淡旺季窄幅波动；公司充分发挥产线布局、产品技术和效率效益优势，盈利增强。中尺寸领 域，t9产能顺利爬坡，IT产品销量和收入大幅增长，业务盈利持续改 ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing price increases, with polysilicon manufacturers raising prices to a range of 45,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton, although actual transactions at this level have not yet been observed [1] - There is a strong determination among polysilicon manufacturers to maintain prices, and some downstream companies may accept slight price increases to avoid future risks of further price hikes [1] - The macro-level supply-side clearing guidance is expected to provide a framework for the industry's "anti-involution," but actual implementation may take time [1] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities suggests focusing on "capacity clearing" and "new technology iteration" as two main lines for investment [2] - In terms of capacity clearing, attention should be paid to leading companies in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass sectors, particularly those with significant losses and clear capacity clearing expectations [2] - New technology advancements, particularly in BC cells and perovskite cell commercial applications, are also highlighted as areas of interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - Northbound capital, representing foreign investment in the A-share market, has shown significant changes in its holdings as of the end of Q2 2025, with a total market value of approximately 22,830 billion yuan, an increase of about 921 billion yuan from the previous quarter [2][5]. Industry Analysis - The top three industries by market value held by northbound capital at the end of Q2 2025 are: 1. Power Equipment: 2,814 billion yuan 2. Banking: 2,541 billion yuan 3. Electronics: 2,261 billion yuan [3][4]. - Compared to Q1 2025, the market value of holdings in the banking sector increased by approximately 291 billion yuan, while the food and beverage sector saw a decrease of about 215 billion yuan [3][4]. Company Holdings - A total of 37 companies have a market value of over 10 billion yuan held by northbound capital, with 8 of these being banks [6]. - The largest holding is in Ningde Times, valued at approximately 1,531 billion yuan, with a net purchase of about 126 billion yuan in Q2 2025 [6][14]. - Guizhou Moutai follows with a holding of approximately 1,027 billion yuan, which decreased by over 200 billion yuan due to a drop in stock price and a reduction in holdings [6][14]. Stock Performance - Companies with holdings exceeding 100 billion yuan by northbound capital had a median stock price increase of 4.15% in Q2 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 3.26% [6][10]. - The top-performing stock was Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, which saw a price increase of approximately 33.08% [6]. Changes in Holdings - Northbound capital increased its holdings in several sectors, with notable increases in the banking, non-bank financial, power equipment, and medical biology sectors, each seeing increases of over 100 billion yuan [3][4]. - Conversely, the food and beverage sector experienced the largest decrease in holdings, with a reduction of approximately 215 billion yuan [3][4]. Notable Increases - The most significant increase in holdings was observed in Ningde Times, with an increase of approximately 126 billion yuan [14]. - Other notable increases include the pharmaceutical company Hengrui Medicine, which saw an increase of over 73 billion yuan [14]. Emerging Sectors - The computing and photovoltaic sectors have shown strong performance, with 26 computing-related stocks held by northbound capital, achieving a median increase of about 10.51% in Q2 2025 [10][12]. - In the photovoltaic sector, 16 stocks were held with a market value exceeding 5 billion yuan, with Longi Green Energy leading at nearly 6.4 billion yuan [12][13].

沪深两市成交额突破一万亿，较上个交易日同期缩量约250亿；上证指数现涨0.55%；光伏、稀土永 磁、多元金融、券商、房地产开发、水泥建材等概念涨幅居前，PCB、电子元件、船舶制造、存储芯片 等概念走弱；全市约2200股上涨，2900股下跌，主力资金净流出约200亿元。 ...

值得注意的是，该基金跟踪的中证光伏产业指数估值处于历史低位，最新市净率PB为1.78倍，低于指数 近3年82.54%以上的时间，估值性价比突出。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证光伏产业指数(931151)前十大权重股分别为阳光电源(300274)、隆 基绿能(601012)、TCL科技(000100)、特变电工(600089)、通威股份(600438)、TCL中环(002129)、正泰 电器(601877)、晶科能源(688223)、晶澳科技(002459)、德业股份(605117)，前十大权重股合计占比 55.39%。 相关产品：光伏龙头ETF(159609) 截至2025年7月10日午间收盘，中证光伏产业指数(931151)强势上涨2.06%，成分股协鑫集成(002506)上 涨10.00%，晶澳科技(002459)上涨8.47%，弘元绿能(603185)上涨7.35%，双良节能(600481)，阳光电源 (300274)等个股跟涨。光伏龙头ETF(159609)早盘一度张超3%，半日收涨2.17%，最新价报0.42元。拉长 时间看，截至2025年7月9日，光伏龙头ETF近1周累计上涨3.75% ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-10 光伏产业链报价上调，需注意政策推进情况 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-09，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2509开于8200元/吨，最后收于8140元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-55） 元/吨，变化（-0.67）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓399029手，2025-07-09仓单总数为50792手，较前一日变化 -285手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8700-8800（0）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9200 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8100-8300（100）元/吨，99硅价格在8100-8200（100）元/吨。现货价格持稳运行。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，山东单体企业线上DMC报价上调至 10700元/吨，较前期上涨400元/吨，上调主要原因为近期工业硅价格上涨带来的成本支撑增强，消费支撑较弱，有 机硅价格相对平稳。 策略 工业硅盘面受多晶硅影响较大，短期基本面稍有改善，西北大厂减产后复产时间未定，西南开工低于往年，下游 多晶硅产量 ...

多晶硅期货的大涨或与硅片厂商调高报价的消息相关。有市场消息显示，9日，多家硅片企业上调了硅 片报价，不同尺寸的硅片价格涨幅在8%-11.7%。具体来看，183N硅片报价由0.9元/片调涨至1元/片，涨 幅11.1%；210RN硅片由1.03元/片调涨至1.15元/片，涨幅11.7%；210N硅片由1.25元/片调涨至1.35元/ 片，涨幅8.0%。对此，多家硅片厂商人士向媒体证实，的确在9日下午上调了硅片报价，而且是一线及 二三线企业普遍上调。 > 7月10日，光伏设备、硅能源板块持续走强，硅宝科技、宏柏新材、晨光新材、协鑫集成、亿晶光电多 股拉升涨停。 新华财经北京7月10日电（王媛媛） 7月10日，光伏设备、硅能源板块持续走强，硅宝科技、宏柏新 材、晨光新材、协鑫集成、亿晶光电多股拉升涨停。 消息面上，市场消息显示多家硅片企业上调了硅片报价，不同尺寸的硅片价格涨幅在8%-11.7%。 期货市场方面，多晶硅期货全线大涨，主力合约突破40000元大关。截至发稿，多晶硅主力合约日内涨 超4%，现报40780元／吨。工业硅主力合约日内涨超3%，现报8410元／吨。 分析认为，随着政策层面持续发力，"反内卷"治理落 ...

A股市场今天(7月10日)上午窄幅震荡，上证指数盘中重回3500点，光伏概念股再度大涨，多股盘中涨 停。 A股市场今天上午窄幅震荡，主要指数表现有一定分化。 上证指数盘中再度上行，盘中重回3500点整数关口，北证50指数、创业板指数盘中走低。 港股市场今天上午震荡反复，恒生指数波动幅度较小。 上证指数盘中重回3500点光伏概念股再度大涨 行业板块和赛道方面，若按照申万一级行业划分，房地产板块领涨，板块盘中涨幅超过1%，绿地控股 （600606）、渝开发（000514）盘中触及涨停，新城控股（601155）、荣盛发展（002146）、电子城、 光大嘉宝（600622）、特发服务（300917）等股票跟涨。 银行板块涨幅居于前列，板块盘中涨幅亦超过1%，民生银行表现较好，盘中涨幅一度超过6%，郑州银 行（002936）、华夏银行等跟涨。 非银金融板块也明显上行，板块盘中涨幅亦超过1%。南华期货（603093）盘中涨停，中银证券 （601696）盘中涨幅一度超过9%，中油资本（000617）、越秀资本（000987）等跟涨。 钢铁、医药生物、有色金属等板块涨幅居于市场前列。 国防军工、汽车、纺织服饰等板块上午表现疲 ...

港股市场今天上午震荡反复，恒生指数波动幅度较小。 上证指数盘中重回3500点 光伏概念股再度大涨 A股市场今天上午窄幅震荡，主要指数表现有一定分化。 上证指数盘中再度上行，盘中重回3500点整数关口，北证50指数、创业板指数盘中走低。 行业板块和赛道方面，若按照申万一级行业划分，房地产板块领涨，板块盘中涨幅超过1%，绿地控股、渝开发盘中触及涨停，新城控股、荣盛发展、电子城、光大 嘉宝、特发服务等股票跟涨。 A股市场今天（7月10日）上午窄幅震荡，上证指数盘中重回3500点，光伏概念股再度大涨，多股盘中涨停。 银行板块涨幅居于前列，板块盘中涨幅亦超过1%，民生银行表现较好，盘中涨幅一度超过6%，郑州银行、华夏银行等跟涨。 非银金融板块也明显上行，板块盘中涨幅亦超过1%。南华期货盘中涨停，中银证券盘中涨幅一度超过9%，中油资本、越秀资本等跟涨。 钢铁、医药生物、有色金属等板块涨幅居于市场前列。 国防军工、汽车、纺织服饰等板块上午表现疲弱。 概念板块方面，光伏概念股整体再度大涨，拓日新能、京运通、协鑫集成等多股盘中涨停，艾能聚、晶澳科技等多股盘中涨幅居前。 消息面上，近日多晶硅期货持续大涨，今天上午国内多晶硅期货主 ...