特朗普在"独立日"长周末期间表示，那些未与美国达成贸易协议的国家将从8月起面临高达70%的惩罚 性关税。"我已经签署了相关信函，将在周一寄出，大概有12封。"他在"空军一号"上对记者表示。周日 晚间，他再度确认，这些信函将在周一中午起开始送达。 新关税8月1日生效 适用于"所有商品" 特朗普在其社交平台Truth Social上公布的信函中表示，新关税将从8月1日起正式实施，适用于这些国家 出口至美国的"所有商品"，而不仅限于特定行业产品。 值得注意的是，目前根据232条款针对钢铁和铝产品的50%关税仍将维持，但不会与新关税叠加。此 外，还有若干行业性关税正在评估中，尚未正式生效。 信函中也指出，如果相关国家对美国商品加征关税，美国将根据相同幅度追加关税反击。 特朗普：不签协议的国家将面临高达70%的关税 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普近日再度点燃全球贸易紧张情绪。他于周末向包括日本、韩国在内 的十多个国家领导人寄出正式信函，宣布即将对这些国家出口至美国的商品征收新的关税。根据最新方 案，日本、韩国、马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦和突尼斯将面临起步25%的关税，而老挝与缅甸的关税更是高 达40%。 虽然大部分税率与 ...

"关税公告对处于超买的新兴市场套利交易来说不是个好兆头，"道明外汇策略主管Mark McCormick表 示。哥伦比亚、巴西和智利的货币均下跌1.2%以上。 "目前情况仍不确定， 特朗普的这些信可能意在促成新一轮谈判，"Jefferies全球外汇主管Brad Bechtel表 示，"因此，我预计未来几周我们还会看到这方面的公告。" ...

打开石化投资策略 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 时间：2025年7月7日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 石油化工 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 伊朗微弱的报复行动及伊以实现全面停火，无疑将此前紧张的中东地缘风险急剧降温，极大得缓解了市场对于原油的供给中断 | | | | | 的担忧。目前仍需关注停火后中东局势后续的发展，如双方是否会违反停火协议，伊朗核材料的处理，美国对伊朗原油出口的 | | | | | 制裁等。日前，伊朗驻联合国大使表示永远不会停止铀浓缩活动，内塔尼亚胡称伊朗通过其核力量和导弹能力对以色列构成重 | | 此前原油空头仓 | | | 大威胁，中东地缘风险不能完全排除另外，特朗普表示中国可以继续从伊朗进口石油。基本面上，原油进入季节性出行旺季， | 震荡运行 | 位暂时离场 | | | 美国原油库存降至低位，只是最新的EIA报告显示美 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间7月3日，美国总统特朗普表示，将于4日开始向贸易伙伴发函，设定单边关 税税率，并称各国将从8月1日起开始支付新的关税。消息一出，迅速引发国际社会广泛关注，全球贸易 局势愈发紧张。 今年4月初，特朗普政府推出所谓的对等关税，对几乎所有贸易伙伴加征关税，具体税率依据各国对美 逆差而不等。由于该政策引发金融市场巨震，特朗普不得不采取缓和措施，将各国对等关税税率全部临 时下调至10%，期限为90天，美国在此期间和各国进行贸易谈判。特朗普设定的贸易谈判最后期限为7 月9日，然而，随着期限临近，多方在核心利益诉求上互不相让，谈判陷入僵局。 面对美国不合理的关税政策，越来越多国家选择不再忍耐，坚决说"不"。7月3日，韩国总统李在明在记 者会上直言"跟美国谈不拢"；欧盟主席冯德莱恩发表正式声明，明确表示"7月9日前达成协议不可能"； 日本首相石破茂也公开反击特朗普的汽车关税威胁，称"这不是解决问题的正确方法" 。此前，日本内 阁官房长官林芳正也曾表示"日本不会考虑在关税谈判中牺牲农业" 。 与此同时，日本前首相鸠山由纪夫在第十三届世界和平论坛上的呼吁，为当前紧张的局势增添了新的变 量。鸠山由纪夫指出， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of the domestic futures market on July 7, 2025, was more declines than increases. The prices of various commodities were affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical risks. Different commodities had different trends and outlooks, including high - level oscillations, low - level oscillations, and trends of being strong or weak [7]. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium closed flat after opening lower and rising higher. The average price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium was 62,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 60,950 yuan/ton, both up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply was relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.8%, slightly down from last week. The price of spodumene concentrate was 660 yuan/ton, up 30 dollars/ton week - on - week. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the inventory remained high. The market was affected by the idea of capacity clearance, increasing the expectation of tight supply. The tariff exemption period ended on the 9th, and there might be variables in tariffs. The market was in high - level consolidation and mainly showed a strong trend [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and fell during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 745 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. In May, the import volume of coal decreased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remained at a low level this year. Domestic coal production increased this period. The inventory of ports and independent coking enterprises increased significantly, and the supply was still loose. The steel mill's demand was still rigid, but the coke price was lowered four times, and the terminal's operating rate was low in high - temperature and rainy weather. The coking coal market was expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside was limited [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened lower, fluctuated, and closed down. The overseas macro - environment was mainly about the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the subsequent tariff situation after the expiration of the US tariff exemption period. The employment data was better than expected, increasing the market's wait - and - see attitude towards the Fed's interest - rate cut. The tariff exemption period expired this week. The supply tightness expectation was slightly improved, but the copper inventory in other regions continued to decline. The demand was expected to enter the off - season in July, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy [9]. Crude Oil - The tension in the Middle East geopolitical situation was greatly relieved, and the market's concern about the supply interruption of crude oil was alleviated. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It was recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply was increasing, with the production expected to reach 2.542 million tons in July, a 6.0% increase from the previous month. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The Middle East geopolitical risk was reduced, and OPEC + planned to increase production in August. It was recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt at low prices [12]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased, and the upstream propane import was restricted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the downstream recovery was slow, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The plastic's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased. The upstream ethane import was restricted, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, and it was expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC's supply was decreasing, and the downstream demand was still weak. The export was restricted by policies, and the inventory was high. The real - estate market improvement needed time. It was expected to oscillate at a low level, and it was recommended to short at high prices [17]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean supply was still in surplus, and the domestic soybean import and oil - mill operating rate were high. The soybean meal inventory was accumulating, and the market was affected by multiple factors. It was expected to oscillate weakly [18][19]. Soybean Oil - The international soybean oil demand was expected to increase, but the price rebound was restricted by weather and export sales. The domestic soybean - oil supply was abundant, and the inventory was rising. The terminal demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the EPA's hearing on biofuel blending targets [20]. Rebar - The rebar's supply pressure was not substantially relieved, and the demand was affected by high - temperature and rainy weather. The inventory was expected to accumulate, and the cost support was weakening. It was expected to oscillate downward, and it was recommended to short in bands [21][22]. Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil's supply was increasing, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory was accumulating, and the policy implementation was slow. It was expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [23][25]. Urea - The urea's supply was expected to increase this week, and the demand was weak both in industry and agriculture. The inventory was decreasing, and the export supported the price. It was expected to oscillate strongly [26].

贵金属周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 关税暂停期将结束，金价波动可能加大 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格呈震荡偏强走势。美国"大漂亮法案"在 国会通过而正式成为法律。另外，美国与其他贸易伙伴的 关税谈判期限7月9日临近，各国博弈加剧，谈判仍具较大 不确定性。但上周四与ADP数据背离，好于预期的非农就 业数据公布后，市场对于美联储降息的预期减弱。 ⚫ 7月3日，特朗普 ...

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重。今天咱们聊聊全球贸易这场大戏——离7月9日的"大限"只剩两天，特朗普的关税大棒悬在各国头顶，咱们来看看这两天的最新 进展。 八轮谈判估计又是一场硬仗。瑞士这次算是"曲线救国"，美国在232条款里给药品出口开了绿灯，瑞士政府已经默许协议草案，就等特朗普签字。印尼则 拿出1700种商品近零关税的诚意，希望美国把32%的关税降到20%以下，用矿产合作换贸易让步，这算盘打得挺精。 最后说说美国这边的动向。特朗普已经签了12封贸易信函，周一就要发出去，新关税从10%到70%不等，8月1日生效。农业部长那边透风，可能对可可 豆、咖啡这些美国种不了的农产品免税，这算是给发展中国家一点甜头。不过贝森特特意否认8月1日是"新大限"，这表态有点矛盾，看来美国内部对关税 策略也有分歧。 现在这局势就像一场全球贸易棋局，每个国家都在算自己的得失。英国、越南这些达成协议的国家，算是暂时避开了关税大棒，但留下的尾巴随时可能 引爆新争端。欧盟、韩国、日本这些还在谈的，要么硬扛要么找替代方案。而美国呢，看似掌握主动权，但高关税对全球供应链的冲击，最终可能反噬 美国经济。咱们作为投资者，得盯着这些关税变化对行业的影响， ...

智通财经APP获悉，经济学家努里尔·鲁比尼表示，他预计到2025年底美国核心通胀率将升至3.5%。他 指出，今年下半年美国经济增长将放缓，甚至可能出现衰退，而美联储在12月之前都不会降息。鲁比尼 因提前预测2008年金融危机和2020年疫情引发的衰退而获得"末日博士"的称号。 鲁比尼称，经济放缓将呈现"轻度滞胀冲击"的特征，并警告称通胀仍然过高，美联储难以转向政策。美 联储青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出指数依然顽固。鲁比尼认为该指数将远高于目标水平，令美 联储陷入困境。这种增长放缓而通胀高企的局面，他此前已多次预见。 这位经济学家还表示，他预计全球贸易谈判将降温，但无法避免对经济造成损害。他预测最终将出 现"温和的"结果，许多国家最终将面临15%的关税。 当被问及潜在的市场冲击时，鲁比尼表示，他认为美国不会重演2025年4月2日的情景。当时特朗普总统 宣布加征激进关税，导致市场暴跌20%。鲁比尼说："我当然不认为会出现类似4月2日的情况。"但他仍 发出警告，明确指出经济路径正在收窄，美联储的行动空间有限。 该ETF持有黄金、短期美国政府债券和农产品等组合。这种配置在某些时候有所帮助，但在6月等平静 月份也 ...

编者荐语： 对于北约成员国来说，这次北约峰会算得上大获成功，因为美国总统特朗普不仅没有威胁退 出北约，甚至都没有发脾气。 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并为同一家媒体集团。同样于19世纪创刊的日本和英国的两家 报社形成的同盟正以"高品质、最强大的经济新闻学"为旗帜，推进共同特辑等广泛领域的协作。此次， 作为其中的一环，两家报社的中文网之间实现文章互换。 以下文章来源于FT中文网 ，作者张冬方 在全球贸易秩序被扰乱的形势下，在与特朗普打交道只能靠取悦和满足他的情况下，欧 盟开始考虑不与特朗普打交道的选项。 文丨FT中文网专栏作家 张冬方 FT中文网 . 英国《金融时报》集团旗下唯一的中文商业财经网站，旨在为中国商业菁英和决策者们提供每日不可或 缺的商业财经资讯、深度分析以及评论。 资料图（reuters） 自从特朗普上台以来，世界不再寂寞，而欧洲大陆经受了 一波接起一波 的特朗普冲击波， 从安全政策到关税贸易，再到民主价值观。和美国总统之间打交道也逐渐沦为如何投特朗普 之所好、如何才能不犯逆鳞。 阅读更多内容请点击下方" 阅读原文 " （本文由FT中文网提供） ...

从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破五、六月份的震荡小箱体，重心上移一个台阶。沪指上周突破了五、 六月份来回震荡的小箱体，实现了重心的上移，并创出年内新高。上周五，沪指盘中挑战了去年四季度 的重要技术压力位，遇阻后震荡回落。目前来看，在没有实质性利好信息的配合下，预计难以一蹴而就 得向上突破。 首先，外部环境继续改善，A 股市场缓慢攀升。近期国际局势有所好转，外部环境开始边际改善。 全球贸易摩擦逐步缓和，美国的部分压制手段有所收敛。因此，A 股市场的交易重心开始缓慢提升，沪 指近两周迭创年内新高，深圳成分指数亦跟随反弹。展望后期，国内经济数据和上市公司的中报将成为 影响行情的重要影响因素，投资者宜根据最新信息，相机抉择。 上周，两市继续反弹，日均成交略有下降。沪指上周延续了上周的反弹趋势，周五高点再次刷新年 内新高，并挑战了去年四季度的市场高点，但收盘有所回落，未能直接突破。深圳成指上周同步反弹， 创出阶段高点。量能方面，上周两市日均量能超过 14000 亿，较上周出现小幅下滑。上周市场热点主要 集中在钢铁、建材等传统行业，银行也相对强势。投资风格方面，大盘蓝筹股涨幅更大。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金 ...