Global Market Overview - During the period from January 16 to January 23, 2026, geopolitical conflicts intensified, leading to an increase in precious metals, with gold rising by 8.3%[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained at 4.2%, while the U.S. dollar index decreased by 1.88%[6] Asset Performance During RMB Appreciation - Since 2000, the RMB has experienced 6 rounds of appreciation and 4 rounds of depreciation, influenced by currency reforms and global trade cycles[8] - During RMB appreciation, stocks generally showed higher stability, with the ChiNext outperforming the CSI 300, except in 2017[10] - In the bond market, the national debt index recorded negative returns during appreciation periods in 2017, 2023, and 2025, while other periods showed positive returns[10] Fund Flows - As of January 21, 2026, both domestic and foreign capital flowed into the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds inflowing $3.38 billion and passive funds inflowing $16.65 billion[3] - Domestic capital saw an outflow of $493.17 billion, while foreign capital inflow totaled $20.03 billion in the same week[3] Valuation Metrics - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeded that of the KOSPI 200, CAC 40, and S&P 500, reaching 92.9% of its 10-year historical average[3] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite remains relatively high, indicating good allocation value compared to global markets[3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the PCE index, has remained low, indicating economic cooling[5] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75% is 95.60%, stable compared to the previous week[5]

2026 年 01 月 24 日 海外利率上行引发全球震荡，后续 推演与影响 ——全球资产配置风险聚焦系列之二 相关研究 全球股市下跌，美元走弱，黄金创新高。从触发因素来看，美国在格陵兰岛的表态引发欧美冲突，欧洲部分资金宣布撤出美债市场，美 债利率在欧盘交易时间大幅上行，同时美元走弱。日本方面，高市早苗宣布解散众议院，市场担心更加"高压"的经济导致通胀失控， 长端国债遭遇较大抛售压力。本轮全球长债加速抛售潮与过去 3 年的趋势有何不同？是否会引发风险资产持续性的波动风险？有何指 标需要关注？ 证 券 研 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 大 类 资 产 配 置 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the global asset allocation strategy for personal finance by Bank of China, predicting a slow recovery in the global economy in 2026, with a focus on the performance of various asset classes amid changing monetary policies and economic conditions. Economic Overview - In 2025, global economic growth is expected to slow down with inflation receding, leading G10 countries (excluding Japan) into a rate-cutting cycle. The Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts are anticipated to push the US dollar index down, resulting in strong global asset performance, particularly in gold and silver, while oil is expected to be the only asset with negative returns. The Chinese asset market is entering a phase of value reassessment, with a slow bull market forming and the RMB expected to appreciate against the USD [1][8]. - For 2026, the global economy may continue its weak recovery, with uncertainties remaining. China's economy is projected to stabilize and grow between 4.7% and 5.0% due to supportive macro policies. The US is expected to see reduced policy uncertainty, while the Eurozone's economic fundamentals remain robust, and the UK economy shows resilience [1][8][10]. Equity Market - The internationalization and value reassessment of Chinese assets are ongoing, with the A-share market expected to solidify its slow bull market and potentially evolve into a long bull market. Hong Kong stocks are positioned to benefit from global liquidity inflows as a core hub for RMB asset allocation. The US stock market is expected to rise but may underperform compared to non-US markets, while European and Japanese markets are anticipated to see moderate gains [1][9][12]. Bond Market - The bond market is influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, leading to a downward shift in US Treasury yields. The UK bond market shows high allocation value, while German bonds are expected to perform slightly weaker. In China, the 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% [2][10][11]. Foreign Exchange Market - The trend of "de-dollarization" is expected to continue, with the US dollar's central tendency likely to decline. Non-US currencies are showing mixed performance, with the Euro and Malaysian Ringgit slightly stronger, while the Japanese Yen, British Pound, Australian Dollar, and Indonesian Rupiah are in the middle range. The RMB is expected to fluctuate within a stable range against the USD and may depreciate slightly against other major non-US currencies [2][10][20]. Commodity Market - The long-term upward trend for gold remains solid, with expectations for new historical highs in 2026, albeit with increased volatility. Silver is also expected to trend upwards due to multiple support factors. The demand dynamics for copper and aluminum are being reshaped by AI developments, while oil is expected to remain in a supply surplus situation. Prices for polyester and industrial silicon are anticipated to recover due to supportive policies, and lithium carbonate is expected to see price fluctuations based on supply and demand changes [2][11][12]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended global asset allocation order for 2026 is precious metals, non-ferrous metals, equities, and bonds. Gold and silver are expected to outperform copper and aluminum, while non-US equities are projected to outperform US stocks. In the bond sector, US Treasuries are favored over Chinese bonds, and oil is suggested for lower allocation [3][11][12].

关于整体资产配置思路，孙伏鲲对配置和交易作了区分，他认为资产配置的本质是长期拥有。"投资如 同足球比赛，只有确保坚固的防守，才能走得更远。"孙伏鲲表示，基于此，黄金是组合中带有进攻性 在第十二届全球衍生品实盘交易大赛轻量组第五名夏辉看来，2026年将是宏观层面出现巨大转折之年， 原因在于全球资产泡沫，特别是美股可能在狂热情绪推动下达到顶峰，同时面临破灭风险。而贯穿全年 的投资主线则是通胀卷土重来，这将主导大宗商品尤其是低位农产品和能源的轮动机会，并对美债构成 压力。 "在当前市场流动性泛滥和投资者狂热情绪的推动下，美股仍有很大的上涨空间，直至彻底泡沫化，大 概率会在今年下半年某个时间点破裂，届时流动性危机可能会影响全球金融市场。"夏辉说。 2026年以来，"黑天鹅"事件频发，给市场带来了很大的不确定性。在孙伏鲲看来，风险是金融市场与生 俱来且不可或缺的组成部分，它为市场带来波动，也创造了利润与交易机会。面对当下日益增多的"黑 天鹅"事件，他主张"反其道而行之"，不再局限于通过降低仓位来控制风险，而是利用期货、期权、对 冲与套利等多元金融工具管理风险并捕捉收益。"未来的主流将是对工具的灵活运用。因为当手中只有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the dual opportunities presented by the global liquidity shift and the revaluation of Chinese assets in 2026, advocating for a resilient investment strategy that balances "risk aversion and growth" [1] Group 1: Chinese Equity Assets - In 2026, China's economic resilience positions it as a relatively stable choice for global asset allocation, with GDP surpassing 140 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year growth [2] - The A-share market is expected to transition from a valuation recovery driven by policy and liquidity to a solid increase supported by corporate profit improvements, establishing a "slow bull" market [2] - Chinese equity assets are shifting from "marginal allocation" to "core allocation," driven by external uncertainties and a transformation in domestic wealth structure, indicating a long-term trend towards equity investments [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market is poised to benefit from the U.S. interest rate cut cycle, with sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals still at historical low valuations, suggesting a potential for value revaluation in 2026 [3] - In contrast, the U.S. stock market, despite the ongoing AI boom, is at historical high valuations, with profit growth concentrated among a few tech giants, indicating a "K-shaped" divergence [3] Group 3: Precious Metals (Gold) - Gold has emerged as a leading asset over the past three years, with a cumulative increase of nearly 150% from 2022 to 2025, driven by a reconstruction of trust, reassessment of monetary credit, and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [4] - The acceleration of de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, the U.S. Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, and record-high holdings in gold ETFs support the continued recommendation for an "overweight" position in gold [5][6] - As of January 21, 2026, gold prices reached $4,835.07 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 10% in the year, with a historical breakthrough of the $4,800 mark [5] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report highlights the importance of a scientific approach to investment, utilizing tools like multi-asset allocation and risk assessment to navigate uncertainties [7] - The year 2026 is viewed as a pivotal year for wealth distribution over the next five years, with a focus on long-term investment strategies to capture systematic returns [7]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is undergoing a significant paradigm shift, with a movement from single-market asset allocation to diversified global assets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is characterized by "high growth, low correlation, and low valuation" attributes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The core contradiction in global asset performance in the first half of 2025 revolves around the uncertainty of tariff policies, leading to a risk-off mode in the market [2]. - The U.S. dollar assets faced a collective downturn in April 2025, with the dollar index dropping below 100 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surging, indicating a shift from a "dollar-centric" view to a new paradigm where non-U.S. currencies are gaining importance [2][3]. - Historical trends show that global liquidity typically follows a 4-5 year cycle with the U.S. dollar, and a declining dollar phase tends to favor non-U.S. assets, particularly those in the Asia-Pacific region with strong fundamentals [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia-Pacific - For domestic investors, the low correlation of the CSI 300 index with major global indices allows for effective risk mitigation through investments in Asia-Pacific assets, which are expected to contribute higher economic growth compared to global markets [3]. - The Asia-Pacific market currently offers significantly lower PE valuation levels compared to the high valuations in the U.S. market, presenting a compelling investment opportunity [3]. Group 3: Sectoral Advantages - The dual drivers of "technology growth" and "dividend defense" are central to the investment appeal of Asia-Pacific assets, particularly in the semiconductor industry, which has unmatched global competitiveness [4]. - Major semiconductor companies in the region, such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics, are positioned to benefit from the AI technology boom and the recovery of the semiconductor cycle [4]. - Japan's corporate governance reforms and ultra-loose monetary policy have improved shareholder returns and operational efficiency, making Japanese equities an attractive option for long-term investors [4][5]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - The Southern Fund's Asia-Pacific Select ETF is designed to capture investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific market, tracking the FTSE Asia-Pacific Low Carbon Select Index, which includes leading companies while incorporating ESG low-carbon screening [7]. - The ETF's holdings balance quality and diversity, featuring top firms across various sectors, including technology and automotive, while minimizing risks associated with single-country or single-industry volatility [7]. - The fund's low management and custody fees provide a cost-effective pathway for investors to participate in the growth potential of the Asia-Pacific region [7]. Group 5: Performance Resilience - The Asia-Pacific Select ETF has demonstrated resilience in various market conditions, outperforming similar assets during periods of high U.S. Treasury yields and global trade fluctuations [8]. - The rise of Asia-Pacific assets is seen as a natural outcome of evolving global economic dynamics, industry cycles, and improved corporate governance, marking the region's emergence into a "golden era" [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Federal Reserve is expected to shift its monetary policy in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to three consecutive interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, driven by a cooling job market and easing inflation pressures [1] - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict that if employment data continues to deteriorate, the policy rate may drop to 3% by the end of 2025 [1] - The article highlights the importance of optimizing investment strategies and controlling risk exposure for individual investors in a volatile market environment [1] Group 2 - The "Caiyuan Rolling" stock trading assistant offers a rule-driven investment strategy that automates decision-making, allowing users to customize technical indicators and execute trades automatically [2] - The system incorporates position management rules to enhance risk control, limiting daily purchases to three stocks and capping individual stock holdings at 10% of total funds [2] - Users can adjust strategy parameters to tighten stop-loss limits or reduce daily purchase quantities, thereby minimizing the impact of short-term volatility [2] Group 3 - The "Caiyuan Rolling" assistant features a real-time tracking function that provides users with timely updates on their holdings, including buy/sell notifications and performance metrics [3] - The system generates backtesting data, such as holding return curves and maximum drawdown rates, allowing users to evaluate their strategies against market performance [3] Group 4 - The assistant is designed with tiered access to cater to different investor needs, allowing ordinary users to create up to 20 strategies with unlimited backtesting [5] - New users benefit from a 7-day trial period, enabling them to create five strategies and conduct five backtests daily without incurring costs [5] - The tool aims to support individual investors in navigating the complexities of decision-making during the liquidity restructuring caused by the Fed's interest rate cuts [5][6]

Core Insights - The Bank of China has launched a personal financial global service plan based on the "global account" feature, aiming to enhance cross-border financial services and meet the higher demands of cross-border clients [1][3] - The service plan includes five core functions: global account overview, global asset allocation, global convenient remittance, global payroll convenience, and global premium rights [3] - The bank has also released two white papers focused on global asset allocation and wealth management for high-net-worth individuals, continuing its commitment to respond to client asset allocation needs [3] Group 1 - The launch of the global service plan is part of the Bank of China's efforts to optimize cross-border trade and investment facilitation measures [3] - The service aims to provide a one-stop, full-cycle support for cross-border clients, enhancing the accessibility and convenience of financial services [3] - The bank has integrated its mainland and Hong Kong mobile banking services, allowing for a seamless experience where clients can initiate transactions from one end and view them on both ends [3] Group 2 - The bank emphasizes four key features of its global remittance services: cost-effectiveness, speed, security, and convenience [3] - The "Bank of China Global Payroll" service supports a comprehensive financial ecosystem from enterprises to employees and individuals to families [3] - Clients can open local accounts in over ten countries or regions and enjoy corresponding tiered services with a single identity [3] Group 3 - The Bank of China aims to enhance its global service layout with a broader vision, practical measures, and superior services to accompany global clients in creating value [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global asset allocation logic is shifting towards profit realization, with a priority on equity assets, while bonds require strict control of long-end risks [2] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Equity assets are prioritized in the current global asset allocation, supported by the debt-equity ratio advantage and policy support in A-shares, entering a "slow bull" phase [2] - The U.S. stock market benefits from AI efficiency dividends, leading to profit margin expansion, while the Japanese and Korean markets see significant profit upgrades due to their technology supply chain advantages [2] - Commodities are supported by AI-driven resource pricing reconstruction, physical hoarding demand, and geopolitical "safety premiums," maintaining a long bull market [2] Group 2: Macro Scenario and Investment Strategies - The macro scenario focuses on the continuation of the "AI narrative" and restrained interest rate cuts, with different risk preferences corresponding to four quadrants for investment layout [3] - Risk-seeking strategies can focus on a "strong rate cut + strong AI" combination, emphasizing mid-small cap growth, large cap growth, and gold for high elastic returns [3] - Conservative strategies may adopt a "strong rate cut + weak AI" defensive combination, centered on long bonds, gold, and large cap value stocks for stable returns and risk control [3] Group 3: All-Weather Strategy - The risk parity strategy allows for all-weather allocation, capturing the certainty of returns from bonds and gold during rate cut cycles while hedging against valuation volatility risks from the AI narrative [4] - The current domestic all-weather strategy combines short bonds as a base, with appropriate allocations to gold and equity assets, while closely monitoring uncertainties in overseas monetary policy and other risks [4]

数据显示，截至1月20日，QDII基金总规模达9700亿元，较去年同期大增59%，距离万亿关口仅一步之遥，占全市场基金比 重升至2.6%。全球资产配置需求升温、美股及亚太市场赚钱效应显现，叠加美元强势预期，推动资金借道QDII"出海"；尽 管体量仍低于股票、债券等主流品种，但跨境投资潜力持续释放，后续额度扩容与新品落地有望进一步提速。 1月20日,A股三大股指高开低走,探底后震荡回升,截止收盘,沪指跌0.01%,报4113.65点,深成指跌0.97%,报14155.63点,创业板指 跌1.79%,报3277.98点,科创50指数跌1.58%,报1482.99点。沪深两市成交额2.78万亿,全市场超3100只个股下跌。 二、基金要闻 一、交易提示 | | 标 | 权益登记日 | 每10份整 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 派发红利( | 0 | | | | 28 | 2026-01-20 | 1.8000 | | | | 255010 | 国际安稳健混合 A | 2026-01-20 | 1.7680 | 2026-01-21 | 常见照 ...