来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 作者：新火研究院 声明：本文为转载内容，读者可通过原文链接获得更多信息。如作者对转载形式有任何异议，请联系我们，我们将按照作者要求进行修改。转载仅用于信息 分享，不构成任何投资建议，不代表吴说观点与立场。 2026 年新年开局，加密市场已逐步摆脱年末「流动性真空」和「大跌恐慌」阴霾，在流动性与情绪面 迎来强劲修复。随着美国现货ETF首两个交易日出现大额净流入，多平台恐慌贪婪指数也从恐慌区间回 升至中性。BTC 与 ETH 一度突破 93,000 美元及 3,200 美元关口，小币种同步集体反弹，其中 PEPE、WIF 等迷因币更是出现单周超 60% 的亮眼表现。由于短期上涨过快，市场可能存在技术性回调需求，但这 并不影响整体上涨趋势。 新火研究院认为，比特币有望在本次调整结束后冲击 10 万美元大关，该位置既是去年 10 月下跌开始后 的重要日线压力位，也是本轮行情的牛熊分界线。若能放量站稳 10 万美元，比特币有望在年内创下历 史新高。新火研究院认为，比特币有望在本次调整结束后冲击 10 万美元大关，该位置既是去年 10 月下跌开始后 的重要日线压力位，也是本轮行情的牛熊分界 ...

（文章来源：证券时报） 2026年首个交易日，A股上演"开门红"，上证指数涨1.38%，收出罕见的12连阳，重回4000点上方；上 证50、深证成指亦大涨，创出新高。全日成交2.57万亿元，较前一交易日增超5000亿元。脑机接口、保 险、科技等板块涨幅居前。"今日市场行情全面爆发，并非偶然的脉冲式行情，而是基本面改善、政策 红利释放与流动性修复三者共振的必然结果。"中邮证券副总裁、首席经济学家黄付生对证券时报记者 表示。中信建投资深策略分析师夏凡捷表示，人民币升值、科技板块利好集中释放、宏观经济预期改善 及资金面积极信号等多重利好，有望推动A股跨年行情的继续演绎。 ...

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】弱美元下流动性修复，权益商品普涨——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251128- 20251205) 原创 阅读全文 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 弱美元下流动性修复，权益商品普涨 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251128-20251205) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.08 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周(20251128-20251205)本周美国ADP就业和PMI数据双双不及预期，其中美国11月PMI录得48.2，预期49，前值48.7，ADP新增就业减少3.2万人， 预期增加1万人。景气度数据的不及预期巩固了美联储年内降息预期，本周全球流动性有所修复，全球权益和商品均多数上涨。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.14%，本周上 升12BPs，美元指数下行0.46%，当前点位为99.0，弱美元交易持续；2）权益方面，本周A股指数除科创50指数外其余指数均收涨，创业板指领涨市场；全球市场中韩国综合股价 200领涨全球，巴西股市跌幅明显，总体上新兴市场好于发达市场；3）商品方面， ...

Group 1: Overseas Macro Trends and Strategies - Nvidia's earnings exceeded expectations, but stock price volatility increased, indicating a growing divide in AI investments [13][20] - December Fed rate cut expectations have become more divergent, initially dropping to 30% before rising to 70% after dovish comments from Fed officials [13][20] - The focus is on liquidity recovery, particularly the timing of TGA account disbursements, which could alleviate current liquidity pressures [13][17] Group 2: Domestic Macro Trends and Strategies - In October, fiscal spending declined, and LPR remained unchanged, with expectations for coordinated monetary and fiscal efforts at year-end [29][30] - A-shares are expected to rebound after previous adjustments, with a focus on undervalued technology and low-positioned consumer sectors [32][34] Group 3: Market Review - The overall A-share index declined, with small-cap stocks performing worse than large-cap stocks; the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.8% and 3.9% respectively [36][38] - All sectors experienced declines, with banking, media, and food and beverage sectors showing relative resilience, while power, comprehensive, and chemical sectors led the declines [37][40] Group 4: Fund Sentiment - A-share market activity decreased, with average daily trading volume dropping to 186.5 billion yuan, indicating a shift in industry rotation [45][52] - Domestic panic sentiment slightly increased, while overseas panic levels rose significantly, with the VIX index climbing by 18.15% [54][55] - Public funds saw a slight increase in new issuance, with significant net inflows into ETFs focusing on securities, semiconductors, and real estate [57][61] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Focus on sectors with significant price corrections, such as robotics, military, and AI applications, as well as low-positioned consumer sectors like food and beverage, social services, and home appliances [34][36] - The approval of new hard technology ETFs is expected to attract incremental capital into the hard technology sector [57]

Group 1: Core Insights - The global liquidity environment is becoming more accommodative, with the Federal Reserve signaling a policy shift that enhances expectations for improved dollar liquidity [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and its corresponding ETF are becoming core assets as they reflect the profitability and industrial trends of mainland enterprises [1] Group 2: Overseas Liquidity - The Federal Reserve's shift towards easing is expected to relieve pressure on the liabilities of H-share ETFs, with Powell indicating a pause in balance sheet runoff and potential rate cuts [1][2] - The downward adjustment of discount rates will elevate the present value of future cash flows, leading to valuation recovery, particularly in sectors sensitive to liabilities like technology and consumer goods [2] Group 3: Fundamentals - The overall EPS forecast for the Hong Kong market shows signs of stabilization and recovery, with a 0.35% increase in the Hang Seng Index EPS forecast since September 26 [5] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index consists entirely of mainland enterprises, with major sectors including consumer discretionary (29.5%), information technology (25.2%), and financials (23.0%), reflecting structural trends in consumption recovery and manufacturing upgrades [5] Group 4: Capital Flows - There has been a noticeable increase in net inflows from southbound funds, with significant investments in consumer discretionary and financial sectors amounting to 923 million HKD and 233 million HKD respectively over the past 20 trading days [8] - The rising proportion of southbound capital in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange indicates a growing reallocation interest from mainland investors towards Hong Kong stocks [8] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of the Federal Reserve's easing policies, improving dollar liquidity, and the recovery of mainland economic performance is providing strong support for the Hong Kong stock market [13] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery of the mainland economy, with H-share ETFs being ideal tools for investors to capitalize on the liquidity recovery window [13]