基金经理透底年末投资方向 ◎记者 陈玥 临近年末，基金经理开始在防御中布局明年。 Choice数据显示，截至11月19日，近一年全市场普通股票型基金和偏股混合型基金平均净值增长率分别 达29.35%和29.49%。其中，15只产品近一年净值增长超100%，排名第一的是永赢科技智选混合发起 A，净值增长210%。 有了一定的收益之后，如何保住胜利果实是基金经理当前最重视的问题。但防御并不意味着减仓或固守 红利资产，仓位配置、再平衡策略等对基金经理提出了更高要求。 防御注重均衡 民生加银基金经理孙伟也告诉上证报记者，年底市场波动与分化可能加大，但风险相对不大，整体风格 可能偏价值一些，会积极关注可能出现的新技术、新方向。 如何更好地进行防守？殷子涵认为，通常而言红利是较好的防守资产，但也要经过严格的筛选。"当前 市场最核心的长期逻辑是无风险利率处于大周期下行趋势中，这使红利成为一个值得长期关注的方向。 但须对具体行业进行筛选。寻找具备景气度的红利资产，须观察行业所处的周期位置，考虑明年及后续 的股息和利润分红金额能否保持稳定。比如，我非常关注金属领域的电解铝，它就具有这些特征。"殷 子涵说。 孙伟则表示，"杠铃策 ...

Domestic Economic Outlook - The annual economic growth target is largely achieved, but Q4 growth may further slow down, with high-frequency data indicating a significant decline in asphalt and cement production rates compared to the same period last year[6][17]. - October fiscal data suggests adjustments in year-end fiscal rhythm, allowing for a lower completion rate of the annual budget, with a notable decrease in expenditure despite a good revenue month[6][20]. Overseas Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve may skip interest rate cuts in December, which could lead to continued pressure on U.S. stocks and have a spillover effect on the domestic market[6][18]. - The October FOMC minutes reveal serious divisions regarding potential rate cuts, with concerns that further cuts could exacerbate inflation risks[6][18]. - The Epstein case is gaining attention, with potential implications for U.S. political stability, as it could lead to significant repercussions across various sectors[6][18]. Asset Allocation Insights - Domestic investment institutions are expected to start positioning for 2026 in December, driven by anticipated monetary easing following the appointment of a new Fed chair[6][19]. - The Q2 2026 PCE index is likely to turn positive, potentially signaling the start of an inflationary trend[6][19]. Market Performance Overview - A-shares experienced collective declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% this week, while the Shenzhen Component fell 5.13%[40]. - The U.S. stock market also faced downward adjustments, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by 1.91%[40].

Core Insights - The "2025 Sci-Fi Nebula Carnival and the 16th Chinese Sci-Fi Nebula Awards" opened in Chengdu, featuring prominent figures in the sci-fi industry discussing the historical legacy of sci-fi films and the impact of AI technology [1][3] Industry Development - The "2025 Chinese Sci-Fi Nebula Forum" reflected on the development of the industry, with discussions led by sci-fi authors, academic authorities, and industry leaders on the evolution of Chinese sci-fi cinema over the past century [2] - A keynote speech by Professor Huang Mingfen from Xiamen University reviewed the historical trajectory of Chinese sci-fi films from early explorations to contemporary prosperity [2] AI and Technology Integration - Experts in the AIGC field, including Feng Shuyun and Chengdu Wukong Cultural Media's General Manager Zheng Hang, shared case studies on "AI Empowering Sci-Fi Film Creation" and "Cross-Field Adaptation of Film and Game IPs," exploring new paths for the integration of technology and art [2] Industry Collaboration and Publications - Multiple signing ceremonies for sci-fi industry collaborations took place, including partnerships with Chengdu Wukong Media and the publication of the "Great Power Heavy Equipment Sci-Fi Novel Series," aimed at promoting the transformation of quality sci-fi resources [5] - Five new book launches were held, featuring award-winning works from previous Nebula Awards and new titles like "Supernova Universe" and "Chinese Sci-Fi Classic Library Volume One for Youth," providing readers with the latest options [5] Awards Ceremony - The 16th Chinese Sci-Fi Nebula Awards ceremony will present over 20 awards, including the prestigious "2024 Long Novel Gold Award," with Liu Cixin and other past winners participating in the presentations [6] - The event will also feature a discussion among major sci-fi literary figures, including Liu Cixin and other award-winning authors, sharing insights on creative inspiration and the boundaries of sci-fi literature [5][6] Future Developments - Guests will visit the Chengdu Film and Television Reception Hall to review the planning and development of 12 high-tech filming studios, laying a solid foundation for the adaptation of sci-fi literary works into film [6]

Core Viewpoint - The travel chain is showing structural highlights, particularly among strong channel and brand companies, with expectations for improvement driven by the National Day holiday and policy support [1][8]. Industry Review and Outlook - The experience economy and value-for-money consumption coexist, with service consumption policies being strengthened, AI iteration, and expansion into overseas and lower-tier markets creating growth opportunities [2]. - Four key characteristics of the travel chain: 1) Overall stable consumer market with a rising share of service consumption and a trend towards rational spending [2]. 2) Strong brands and channels are gaining market share, with online penetration in the hotel sector outpacing the industry [2]. 3) Clear differentiation among platforms, with leading companies focusing on building a closed-loop traffic ecosystem and improving monetization [2]. 4) Leading OTA and hotel companies are emphasizing increased cash dividends [2]. Segment Summary - The travel chain's overall revenue in Q2 2025 increased by 9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 65% [3]. - OTA and ride-hailing sectors are performing well, with stable market conditions leading to strong revenue realization [3]. - The hotel sector is showing improved performance, particularly for strong brand companies like Atour, with expectations for gradual stabilization in supply and demand [6]. Company Performance - Ctrip's Q2 revenue exceeded expectations, driven by growth in domestic hotel nights, while international business also saw over 16% growth for two consecutive quarters [4]. - Tongcheng's domestic hotel and flight business is expanding steadily, benefiting from outbound travel [4]. - The ride-hailing industry is experiencing improved profitability, with companies like Cao Cao Travel leveraging their own vehicle fleets for efficiency [5]. Investment Recommendations - The travel chain presents structural highlights, with strong channel and brand companies expected to benefit from upcoming holidays and policy support [8]. - Recommended companies for investment include Ctrip Group-S, Atour, and Tongcheng Travel among others [8].

Group 1 - The 21st Summer Annual Meeting of the Yabuli Entrepreneurs Forum will be held in Guangzhou on September 12-13, 2025, focusing on the theme "Forging Ahead Steadily - Corporate Development in the New Global Context" [1] - The current market activity is attributed to multiple factors including abundant liquidity, the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, geopolitical factors creating investment opportunities, and the catalytic effect of AI technology [3] - There is a recognition of a technology innovation explosion, with rapid development across various stages from foundational computing algorithms to industry applications [3] Group 2 - Concerns about market bubbles exist, but the transition of technological advancements into corporate profitability is expected to be more solid than in previous market cycles [3] - To stimulate domestic demand, two approaches are suggested: providing financial support to low- and middle-income groups and implementing structural reforms to adjust the distribution system [3] - The growth potential for new consumption sectors, such as Pop Mart, remains significant, with high valuations driven by the ability to create new intellectual properties [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the banking sector in supporting the "Five Major Articles" outlined in China's financial strategy, particularly in the context of the 2025 goals for high-quality economic development [2][3]. Group 1: Event Background - The year 2025 marks the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and is crucial for laying the foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - The central financial work meeting has set the goal of building a financial powerhouse, leading to multiple regulatory documents aimed at enhancing the banking sector's support for national strategies [2]. - The "China Banking Industry Top 200" ranking and research reports have been published since 2021 to analyze industry trends and showcase best practices [2]. Group 2: Event Highlights - The event will serve as a platform for multi-dimensional communication within the banking industry [4]. - The "China Banking Industry Top 200" and "Outstanding Cases of Innovation in the Banking Industry" will be released, providing insights into the latest industry trends and best practices [5]. Group 3: Key Discussions - The event will gather top experts from policy regulation, senior bankers, and scholars to discuss pressing domestic and international topics in the banking sector [6]. - In-depth discussions will focus on banking operational logic, exploring areas such as fintech, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [7]. - Experts will share insights on the application of artificial intelligence in core banking functions, including risk control, marketing, operations, and product innovation [8]. Group 4: Networking Opportunities - The event aims to facilitate efficient communication and resource matching among banks and industry representatives, promoting cross-industry collaboration and innovation [9].

Group 1 - Huawei is building a full-stack AI competitiveness through soft and hard collaboration, transitioning from industry SOTA models to self-developed Ascend hardware tailored model architectures [1] - The Pangu Pro MoE adopts a mixture of experts (MoGE) architecture to address load imbalance issues, while Pangu Ultra MoE optimizes system-level adaptation for Ascend hardware [1] - The new AI infrastructure CloudMatrix constructs a distributed high-speed memory pool via a unified bus (UB) network, reducing cross-node communication discrepancies and supporting software innovations like PDC separation architecture [1] Group 2 - The software ETF (515230) tracks the software index (H30202), which selects listed company securities involved in software development, system integration, and internet services to reflect the overall performance of the software industry [1] - The index components cover application software, system software, and other segments within the information technology field, showcasing the technological innovation capability and market growth potential of software service companies [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng All-Index Software ETF Connect A (012636) and Guotai Zhongzheng All-Index Software ETF Connect C (012637) [1]

Group 1 - A-share market has seen over 200 billion yuan in market value management, with 266 companies proposing annual cash dividend plans totaling over 200 billion yuan as of March 25 [1] - The increase in cash dividends reflects a heightened willingness among listed companies to return value to investors, which is beneficial for stabilizing market expectations and attracting value investors [1] - A500 ETF (159339) experienced a significant rebound, with real-time trading volume exceeding 500 million yuan, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 2 - The government continues to support domestic demand and consumption, allocating 300 billion yuan in special bonds for the replacement of home appliances and consumer electronics, providing additional growth momentum for related industries [2] - The home appliance industry shows marginal improvement in profit expectations, while the consumer electronics sector is expected to benefit from AI technology advancements, presenting new growth opportunities [2] - A500 ETF (159339) offers a low-cost investment option with an annual management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, making it an attractive tool for investors looking to access core A-share assets [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of AI technology on investment opportunities and challenges, highlighting the emergence of new investment strategies and sectors driven by AI advancements. Group 1: AI Technology and Investment Opportunities - The emergence of DeepSeek is reshaping the localization logic of AI in China, with historical precedents indicating that each technological breakthrough creates a new wave of successful companies [3] - DeepSeek is seen as a pivotal moment for China, potentially transforming weak applications into strong AI applications, leading to significant growth stories worth trillions of dollars [3] - Investment strategies are focusing on two main logics: AI+X, where AI serves as infrastructure empowering various industries, and X+AI, which targets upgrades in smart hardware [4] Group 2: AI in Healthcare and Other Sectors - The introduction of DeepSeek is expected to democratize technology, allowing traditional software companies to adopt AI, thus lowering the barriers for enterprises and individuals to utilize AI services [5] - AI applications in healthcare are anticipated to create new business models, particularly for companies that can help pharmaceutical firms reduce R&D costs and time [5][6] - Current AI applications are in a rapid iteration phase, with sectors like humanoid robots and AI healthcare poised for significant growth [6] Group 3: Investment Dynamics and Market Trends - The rapid development of AI models like DeepSeek is leading to an era of investment democratization, enabling ordinary investors to leverage complex models for stock analysis and asset allocation [8] - The market is currently experiencing a phase where investors are enthusiastic about AI, but there is a need to match asset quality with pricing to avoid volatility [9] - As the market matures, the focus will shift from thematic investments to fundamental-based investments, with a need for caution as valuations may reach their limits [10]