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关于美国对印度加征关税的五个问题
2025-08-31 16:21
J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 26 August 2025 Five questions on US tariffs on India After imposing 25% tariffs on India on July 30, the US imposed additional 25% "secondary tariffs" for Indian purchases of Russian crude, which are to come into effect this week (August 27). This piece digs deeper into what these tariffs would mean for India. What will be the effective tariff rate on India's exports? How does it compare with the rest of the world? Which sectors are most exposed? What is the do ...
贵金属日报-20250829
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 12:47
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. The revised annualized quarterly rate of the US GDP in the second quarter was 3.3%, exceeding expectations and the previous value, and the weekly initial jobless claims were 229,000, remaining at a low level. Although the economy is resilient, Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor has led to market concerns about the Fed's independence, which dominated market sentiment. International gold and silver are testing the key resistance at the upper edge of the recent sideways range, and once broken, the upward movement may be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the US PCE data tonight [1] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Content Fed - related - Cook officially sued Trump over the dismissal, with Powell also being a defendant. Cook's lawyer said the mortgage dispute may be due to a "paperwork error." A US judge will hold a hearing on Cook's lawsuit against Trump this Friday, and the case is expected to end up in the Supreme Court. Trump - nominated Fed governor nominee Milan is expected to be confirmed before the Fed's September decision. Fed governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut at the September meeting and expects further rate cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. The second - in - command of the IMF said the market still believes in the Fed's independence, but the actual risks cannot be ignored. ECB Governing Council member Rehn said Trump's pressure on the Fed's independence may have a major global impact on financial markets and the real economy [2] Tariff - related - The EU proposed a legislative proposal to cancel some US goods tariffs to encourage the US to lower auto tariffs. India is expected to increase its September imports of Russian oil by 10% - 20% month - on - month, regardless of US tariff threats. US officials said that in the next six months, a unified tariff of $80 - $200 will be imposed on packages sent to the US, and specific tariff rates will be applied thereafter [2] Russia - Ukraine situation - related - German Chancellor Merz said Zelensky and Putin will not meet. US media reported that Europe proposed a 40 - kilometer front - line buffer zone for Russia and Ukraine [2]
国际金融市场早知道:8月29日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 23:40
Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September and anticipates further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months unless there is a significant deterioration in August employment data and inflation remains controlled [1][2] - Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration, challenging the legality of her dismissal, and claims that any issues with mortgage documents may be mere "clerical errors" [1] - The European Commission proposed two legislative measures to implement a joint tariff declaration with the U.S., which includes the U.S. reducing tariffs on EU cars and parts from 27.5% to 15% [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, indicating a pause in easing policies until financial imbalances in real estate, credit, and foreign exchange markets are significantly alleviated [1] - The Bank of Korea raised its 2025 economic growth forecast from 0.8% to 0.9% and increased its inflation forecast from 1.9% to 2.0% [1] Group 3 - Eurozone economic sentiment index fell to 95.2 in August, down from 95.7 in July, indicating continued weak market confidence and unclear economic recovery prospects [2] - U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized revised growth rate increased by 3.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.1% and the initial estimate of 3.0% [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000, indicating stability in the job market [2] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 45,636.9 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.32% to 6,501.86 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.53% to 21,705.16 points, with both the Dow and S&P reaching new closing highs [3] Group 5 - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.82% to $3,476.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 1.27% to $39.71 per ounce [4] Group 6 - U.S. crude oil futures rose by 0.27% to $64.32 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.31% to $67.65 per barrel [5] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.64 basis points to 3.627%, while the 5-year yield fell by 1.24 basis points to 3.687%, the 10-year yield decreased by 3.29 basis points to 4.201%, and the 30-year yield dropped by 4.68 basis points to 4.872% [5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.33% to 97.87, with the euro rising by 0.38% against the dollar to 1.1682 [5]
报道:欧盟本周将提议削减美国关税,以满足特朗普的要求
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-27 11:18
Group 1 - The EU aims to legislate the removal of tariffs on US industrial goods in exchange for the US reducing tariffs on automobile imports [1][2] - The current tariff on EU automobile exports to the US is 27.5%, significantly impacting EU exports, particularly from Germany, which exported $34.9 billion worth of cars and parts to the US in 2024 [1] - The agreement would lower US tariffs on nearly all European goods to 15%, but the reduction on automobiles is contingent upon the EU's legislative action to remove tariffs on US industrial products [1] Group 2 - To expedite the legislative process, the EU Commission will bypass the standard impact assessment procedure, aiming for a swift agreement to alleviate high tariffs on EU automobiles [2]
美联储,突发!刚刚,直线跳水!
Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Impact - President Trump announced the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing "fraudulent and potentially criminal behavior" that undermines her credibility as a regulator [1][4][5] - Following the announcement, major financial indices including the US dollar index, S&P 500 futures, Nasdaq futures, and Dow futures experienced a sharp decline [2] - Trump's actions reflect increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, particularly criticizing Powell's stance on interest rates [5] Group 2: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The US government plans to impose a 50% tariff on all Indian goods starting August 27, 2025, as part of escalating trade tensions [2][6] - This new tariff follows previous tariffs of 25% imposed on Indian imports, leading to a cumulative tariff rate of 50% on Indian goods [6] - India has expressed strong opposition to the US's tariff actions, stating they are "unfair, unjust, and unreasonable," and has vowed to protect its national interests [6][7] Group 3: US-Korea Trade Negotiations - President Trump indicated a willingness to renegotiate trade agreements with South Korea, including potential orders for ships [3][8] - The US and South Korea previously agreed on a trade deal involving a $350 billion investment fund aimed at supporting South Korean industries in the US market [8][9] - The agreement includes provisions for reduced tariffs on South Korean goods, with specific commitments on energy and other sectors [9]
7500亿能源大单!欧盟忍痛签下“不平等条约”,关税暗指中国矿产
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 13:25
Group 1 - The US and EU have reached a consensus on certain details of their trade agreement, primarily focusing on tariff adjustments, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on most European products, up from just over 2% previously [1] - The agreement includes a conditional reduction of the US tariff on European car imports from 25% to 15%, contingent upon the EU eliminating tariffs on US industrial products and providing greater market access for certain US agricultural products [1][4] - The EU has been negotiating for exemptions for key domestic industries, but the wine and spirits sectors did not receive the desired exemptions, disappointing stakeholders in those industries [3] Group 2 - EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic emphasized that the agreement is a positive step amid changing trade dynamics, but it is just the beginning of ongoing negotiations [4] - The Trump administration views this agreement as a significant move towards addressing trade imbalances and reducing the long-standing trade deficit with the EU [6] - The joint statement released is not legally binding and contains many terms that require further negotiation, indicating that complex issues like "rules of origin" will take time to resolve [6][11] Group 3 - The agreement framework includes commitments from the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products over three years and to invest an additional $600 billion in the US [7] - Analysts express skepticism regarding the feasibility of these investment commitments, as the EU cannot directly influence private sector spending [9] - Despite the new tariffs increasing costs for US consumers purchasing European goods, the overall agreement is seen as favoring US interests while preventing a full-blown trade war [11]
还没出一个月,唯一硬刚川普的发达国家加拿大开始妥协,符合预断
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 04:34
Group 1 - The Canadian government has decided to compromise by adjusting previously imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, canceling most tariffs while temporarily retaining tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum [1] - Canada was the only developed country to directly confront the U.S. since the new trade agreement pushed by Trump, imposing a 35% tariff on U.S. goods starting August 1, 2018, significantly higher than the 15% tariffs imposed by other developed nations [1][2] - The economic pressure from the U.S. has forced Canada to reconsider its stance, as its economy is closely tied to the U.S., necessitating a balance of internal interests [2] Group 2 - Trump's long-term plan may involve integrating Canada into the U.S. political system, with a probability exceeding 60% that Canada could become a U.S. state by the end of 2028 [4] - The U.S. aims to strengthen economic ties with Mexico while also seeking to consolidate its influence over South American countries like Brazil and Argentina [4]
国投期货:美联储今夜定乾坤 贵金属以震荡为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-22 06:08
Group 1: Gold Market - The Shanghai gold futures price is reported at 775.04 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.14% [1] - The opening price for the day was 776.0 CNY per gram, with a high of 777.22 CNY and a low of 774.76 CNY [1] - Market risk appetite remains high, suggesting short-term fluctuations in gold prices, but potential interest rate cuts in September may provide support for gold prices [2] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver prices are expected to experience short-term range fluctuations, but the medium-term outlook will be driven by fundamental factors [3] Group 3: Macro Economic Developments - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, with a senior official urging Fed Chair Powell to remove her from the board [1] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester does not support interest rate cuts if the Fed is to make a policy decision imminently [1] - According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 25% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in September, with a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1] - The Jackson Hole global central bank conference is drawing attention, with Fed Chair Powell scheduled to deliver a keynote speech, which investors are eagerly awaiting for clues on interest rate direction [1] Group 4: U.S.-EU Trade Agreement - The U.S. and EU have reached a consensus on a trade agreement framework, which includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agricultural products, automobiles, and semiconductors [2] - The framework specifies that the U.S. will apply the most favored nation (MFN) tariff or a 15% reciprocal tariff on EU-origin goods, with certain products facing MFN tariffs starting September 1, 2025 [2] - The agreement aims to reduce the current 27.5% tariff on automobiles and parts to a maximum of 15%, alleviating pressure on the European automotive industry [2]
欧盟与美国就敲定贸易协议的联合声明达成一致,美国重申对欧盟大部分商品征收15%的关税上限,美国对欧盟汽车的关税可能在几周内降低
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-21 11:04
Group 1 - The EU and the US have reached a joint statement on a trade agreement, reaffirming a 15% tariff cap on most goods from the EU [1] - The US is likely to reduce tariffs on EU automobiles within a few weeks [1]
印度暂停棉花进口关税 向美国释放信号
Group 1 - India has suspended an 11% import duty on cotton until September 30, signaling a willingness to address U.S. concerns regarding agricultural tariffs and alleviating pressure on its domestic apparel industry [1] - The temporary exemption allows U.S. cotton farmers to benefit while providing relief to India's apparel sector, which will face nearly 60% tariffs on exports to the U.S. starting later this month [1] - The planned visit of U.S. trade negotiators to New Delhi from August 25 to 29 has been canceled, delaying discussions on a proposed bilateral trade agreement and diminishing hopes for Indian goods to avoid an additional 25% tariff starting August 27 [1] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump announced additional tariffs on Indian goods as a penalty for India's purchase of Russian oil, resulting in a total import tariff rate on Indian products doubling to 50% [1] - Previously, Indian export goods faced tariffs ranging from 0% to 5%, while certain textiles had tariffs between 9% and 13% before Trump's tariff increase in April [1] - The U.S. is the largest market for Indian apparel exporters, and high tariffs are leading to order cancellations and loss of competitive advantage against countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam [1]