Core Points - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is a significant budget plan that has caused a deep divide between the two major political parties in the U.S. and even within the Republican Party itself [1][6][21] Tax Policy - The act includes tax cuts for all income groups, with wealthier individuals benefiting the most. It permanently extends the tax cuts from the 2017 tax reform, reducing corporate tax rates from 35% to 21% and personal income tax rates up to 37% [2][3] - New tax exemptions include tips and overtime pay for service industry workers, benefiting millions of low-income earners. However, it imposes additional taxes on countries with "unfair foreign taxes," potentially leading to trade conflicts [2][3] Social Welfare Cuts - To offset the revenue loss from tax cuts, the act proposes cuts to social welfare programs, including Medicaid and food assistance programs [3][4][5] - Medicaid will see stricter work requirements, potentially resulting in 2 million low-income individuals losing their health insurance. Additionally, funding for rural hospitals will be reduced by over 20%, risking closures [4] - The age limit for food assistance (SNAP) eligibility will be raised from 54 to 64, cutting $230 billion in funding and affecting 2.3 million elderly individuals [5] Debt and Fiscal Adjustments - The act necessitates an increase in the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, with a projected deficit increase of $3.3 trillion over the next decade [8] - Spending adjustments include a $1.2 trillion reduction in healthcare, welfare, and clean energy subsidies, while increasing defense spending by $150 billion and border security by $465 billion [8] Energy and Industrial Policy - The act terminates clean energy subsidies, including tax credits for electric vehicles and renewable energy projects, while supporting traditional energy sources [8] - It includes provisions that prevent projects involving "foreign adversaries" from receiving tax credits, compelling U.S. companies to sever ties with Chinese supply chains [8] Political Dynamics - The act has led to significant political conflict, with Democrats opposing it vehemently, while some Republicans also express concerns over its implications [21][24] - The passage of the act was contentious, with a narrow margin in both the House and Senate, highlighting the deep divisions within Congress [18][20] Conclusion - The act represents a critical moment in U.S. fiscal policy, with potential long-term implications for social welfare, taxation, and political dynamics, as it awaits the President's signature [16][17]

当地时间7月4日美国独立日当天，总统特朗普将签署备受争议的"大而美"税收与支出法案，标志着其任内最重大的经济政策胜利。该法案以微 弱优势通过国会两院表决，核心条款包括延长企业和个人减税措施、削减社会福利支出并提高债务上限。尽管法案被批评加剧贫富分化和财政 赤字，但市场对短期经济刺激的预期推动美股高开，美元指数升至97附近，而黄金价格则因美债收益率攀升和美元走强承压，现货黄金在3330 美元/盎司附近震荡。 一、法案核心内容与通过历程 "大而美"法案是特朗普2025年重返白宫后推动的标志性立法，其核心目标是通过减税和财政支出调整刺激经济。法案主要内容包括： 无限期延长企业税减免：将企业所得税最高税率维持在21%，并取消替代性最低税，预计未来十年为企业节省4.5万亿美元。 个人税调整：提高遗产税和赠予税免税额，加班费和小费收入免税，但医疗补助和食物援助计划（SNAP）的资格要求被收紧，预计削减近1.5 万亿美元社会福利支出。 债务扩张：联邦债务上限提高5万亿美元，未来十年赤字预计增加3.3万亿美元，美国国债规模将突破40万亿美元。 参议院于7月1日以51:50的微弱优势通过，副总统万斯投下关键一票；众议院于3日以 ...

参议院惊险过关共和党内部矛盾显现 当地时间1日上午，美国参议院历经22小时通宵"马拉松"投票，最终以副总统万斯投下决定性一票，以 51票对50票的结果，惊险通过美国总统特朗普力推的"大而美"法案。 肯塔基州参议员兰德·保罗、北卡罗来纳州参议员汤姆·蒂利斯和缅因州参议员苏珊·柯林斯三位共和党人 投下反对票，而此前持保留态度的阿拉斯加州参议员丽莎·穆尔科夫斯基最终选择支持法案。 英国《金融时报》在报道中指出，投票结果显示出共和党内部存在明显分歧。 报告特别指出，法案中关于乡村医院关停的条款可能导致部分地区的医疗服务可及性下降。 法案的争议性还体现在其立法程序上。民主党人提出的多项修正案，包括删除乡村医院关停条款、恢复 食品援助等内容，均被共和党以党派票数否决，这种强硬立场进一步激化了两党对立。 引发美政坛激烈争斗马斯克反对增添变数 另一方面，民主党方面则保持高度团结，该党47名参议员一致反对该法案。 法案通过后，特朗普立即在"真相社交"平台发声，敦促众议院共和党人"无视作秀者"，争取在7月4日独 立日假期前完成表决。他写道："按计划推进——在你们和家人享受7月4日假期前完成它！" 白宫方面对法案前景表示乐观，发言 ...

Group 1: Legislative Progress - The "Big and Beautiful Act" narrowly passed in the Senate with a vote of 51:50 and will be sent to the House for a final vote[1] - The Senate version of the bill differs significantly from the House version submitted in May, necessitating a return to the House for a new vote[1] - House Speaker Mike Johnson aims to pass the bill before July 4[1] Group 2: Budgetary Differences - The Senate's revised budget plan is projected to increase the deficit by $3.4 trillion, compared to the House's $2.4 trillion increase[2] - Including interest costs, the Senate's total potential debt impact is $3.94 trillion, while the House's is $2.97 trillion[2] - The Senate version proposes a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, while the House version suggests a $4 trillion increase[2] Group 3: Key Issues and Risks - Major points of contention between the two chambers include Medicaid cuts, SNAP reductions, and the SALT deduction cap[2] - Internal divisions within the Republican Party may affect the speed and success of the bill's passage[4] - The potential for the House to reject the revised Senate version remains, depending on the extent of disagreements[3]

Core Points - The Senate narrowly passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill proposed by Trump, which is referred to as an "economic nuclear bomb" due to its significant tax cuts and social safety net reductions, while increasing military and immigration enforcement spending, leading to a projected $3.3 trillion increase in national debt [1][2] - The bill has been sent to the House for a final vote, but some Republican lawmakers have publicly opposed the Senate version [1] Summary by Sections Key Provisions of the Bill - Extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts - New tax benefits for tip income and overtime pay - Increased budget for military and immigration enforcement - Reduction of approximately $930 billion in Medicaid and food assistance for low-income individuals - Repeal of several green energy incentives from the previous Biden administration - The bill highlights divisions among Republicans regarding the $36.2 trillion national debt and raises the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion [2] Legislative Process and Challenges - The Senate passed the bill with a 51-50 vote, with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaking vote; three Republican senators voted against it alongside all Democratic senators [3] - The final version included provisions to secure support from Senator Lisa Murkowski, such as additional food assistance for certain states and $50 billion in funding for rural hospitals [3] - The House, with a narrow Republican majority of 220-212, is expected to have a contentious vote, with Trump planning to engage deeply in lobbying efforts [3] Reactions and Implications - Billionaire Elon Musk criticized the bill for excessive spending and pledged to support challengers to current Republican lawmakers in the midterm elections [4] - Democratic leaders condemned the bill as the largest theft in U.S. healthcare history, claiming it would deprive hungry children of food [4] - The Tax Foundation indicated that the primary beneficiaries of the Senate version of the bill would be the top 1% of earners with incomes exceeding $663,000 in 2025 [5] - Independent analyses suggest that tightening food and healthcare eligibility will significantly reduce income for impoverished populations, with an estimated 12 million people losing healthcare coverage [6]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a strong rebound after hitting a low in April, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a market capitalization increase of over $10 trillion in less than three months, marking the shortest record for the index to recover from a drop of more than 15% to a new high [1] - Historical data indicates that July is typically one of the best-performing months for U.S. stocks, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming key events [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, strongly advocated by Trump, is facing a critical vote in the Senate, with the White House aiming for its signing before July 4 [3] - The bill passed the House with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes and is currently under Senate review, where it advanced with a procedural vote of 51 to 49 [3] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill will increase federal debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade and proposes raising the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, a historic increase [3] Group 3: Trade Policy and Market Impact - Trump's announcement to suspend trade negotiations with Canada led to a significant short-term drop in U.S. stocks, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade negotiation news [4] - The 90-day tariff suspension period is set to expire on July 9, with Trump indicating no intention to extend it [4] - The current market environment is characterized by "extreme policy uncertainty," with potential pressures on the U.S. economy from tariff policies manifesting as price increases, declining corporate profits, or reduced business investment [4]

Core Points - The Republican Party is struggling to secure votes for Trump's tax bill, with rising debt and increasing political divisions [1][2] - The Senate has initiated debate on the "Big Beautiful" bill with a narrow 51-49 vote, but the bill's future remains uncertain due to Democratic opposition [1][2] - Elon Musk publicly criticized the bill, claiming it would destroy millions of jobs and cause significant strategic harm to the country [1][3] Summary by Sections Bill's Core Content Raises Debt Concerns - The bill aims to extend the large tax cuts implemented during Trump's first term, which is a priority for him upon his return to the political scene [2] - To fund the tax cuts and increase military and border security spending, the bill proposes significant cuts to healthcare and social welfare programs [2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the current version of the bill will increase U.S. national debt by over $3.2 trillion over the next decade, surpassing historical debt levels from World War II [2] Musk's Opposition and Party Divisions Intensify - Musk's criticism adds complexity to the bill's advancement, labeling it as "absurd and destructive" while favoring traditional industries at the expense of future sectors [3] - Internal divisions within the Republican Party are evident, with some senators, including Thom Tillis, opposing the bill due to its deep cuts to Medicaid [4] Legislative Process Uncertainty - Despite the Senate starting the debate, the procedural vote is just the first step, and the final passage of the bill remains uncertain [5] - If the Senate passes the bill, the House must approve the amendments before it can be sent to the President for signing [5]

智通财经APP获悉，根据无党派机构美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的最新估计，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的 税收和支出方案将导致美国十年内赤字增加近3.3万亿美元。 美国国会预算办公室对所谓的"大而美法案"(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)的评估结果显示，与现行法律的 基准情况相比，到2034年，该法案将导致财政收入减少4.5万亿美元，支出减少1.2万亿美元。 根据共和党的要求，参议院的这项法案被评估为在十年内相较于现行政策基准可节省5076亿美元。共和 党议员一直试图利用这种会计手段永久性地延长特朗普2017年的所得税减免政策，并将其成本评估为 零。 根据美国联合税务委员会周六的估计，该法案包括价值4.5万亿美元的减税措施。 共和党人正在采用和解程序试图凭借简单多数票通过这项重大法案，但在该程序中使用现行政策基准来 衡量成本的做法史无前例。通常情况下，一项法案的成本是根据其在现行法律框架下对联邦预算的影响 来衡量的。但共和党人却想改变这一程序，他们假定现行政策无限期地保持不变。 该法案的成本一直是财政保守派面临的一大难题。由于议员们提出的修改要求相互矛盾，该法案在参议 院遭遇重重阻力。随后，该 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《出口展现韧性，中美谈判进展或促风 险偏好修复》 - 2025.06.10 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：美国通胀数据缓和 ⚫ 核心观点： 发布时间：2025-06-16 | 1 海外宏观数据跟踪 4 | | --- | | 1.1 上周重要事件与数据跟踪 4 | | 1.2 本周重要数据与事件 8 | | 2 美联储观点跟踪 9 | | 3 风险提示 9 | 周三公布的美国通胀数据好于预期，反映前期补库行为可能部分 抵消了关税影响。从分项上看，领先指标新租约租金数据指示，核心 服务中的住房分项预计仍将持续回落。同时，申领失业金人数上升显 示劳动力市场正在松动，或将进一步拖累核心服务 CPI 中的其他分 项。中东局势升级为油价带来一定的上行风险，但鉴于双方实力差距， 地缘政治对油价的影响可能偏向短期。美联储方面，尽管通胀风险缓 和，但关税影响或 ...

对于美债失控的问题，特朗普不是没有注意到，他也曾尝试通过一些政策来挽救，比如大举推动裁员工作，试图降低联邦政府开支。加征关税，除了逼大量 国家进口美国商品，也有其他目的，就是想要通过吸纳关税，来弥补美国政府的财政赤字。 但是以上政策当下不是失败，就是走在失败的路上。"政府效率部"裁员裁到自己的负责人干不下去了，至于关税政策，如今特朗普连日本都拿捏不了，日本 首相石破茂已经不止一次明确表示不会对美方让步！更离谱的是什么呢？特朗普一边想尽了办法向别国抢钱，另一边却还想在国内减税，更提高军费。这种 让全球为几亿美国人不劳而获甚至醉生梦死生活买单的行径，无疑是国际社会不能容忍的。 此地无银三百两！美财长公开预告美债最终结局，可信吗？特朗普彻底背叛自己的竞选承诺，或将引发怎样的后果？ 日前，美国财政部长贝森特在接受美媒采访之际，明确表示美国永远不会违约，尽管他承认美国正处于警戒线上，但"永远不会碰壁"。贝森特所提的不会， 是针对美债现状做出的承诺。在这里，贝森特预告美债最终结局，绝不会违约，颇有一种此地无银三百两的意味，他不说还好，越是这么解释，越是等同于 承认，如今美债正面临巨大危机！ 今年4月，美债规模突破36.2 ...