Group 1 - Hong Kong lithium battery stocks experienced significant gains, with Zhong Chuang Innovation rising approximately 9%, Ganfeng Lithium up nearly 7%, and Tianqi Lithium increasing over 5% [1][2] - The latest price movements for key stocks include Zhong Chuang Innovation at 29.560 with an increase of 8.68%, Ganfeng Lithium at 63.150 with a rise of 6.76%, and BYD at 99.500 with a gain of 3.97% [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products, stating that the export tax rebate rate for battery products will be phased down and ultimately eliminated by 2027 [2] Group 2 - CITIC Futures noted that market trading quickly reacted to the export logic, with policy changes strengthening expectations for short-term demand and increased downstream production [3] - The price of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit for two consecutive days, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassing 170,000 yuan per ton, reaching a new high since October 2023 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in Hong Kong lithium battery stocks following the announcement of changes to export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration of China [1] - The export tax rebate for battery products will be phased down starting from April 2026, with the rate decreasing from 9% to 6%, and the complete cancellation of the rebate set for 2027 [1] - Market reactions indicate a strong expectation for short-term demand acceleration and increased downstream production, leading to a surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, which hit a new high of over 170,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include: - Zhongchuang Innovation rising approximately 8.68% to 29.560 yuan - Ganfeng Lithium increasing nearly 6.76% to 63.150 yuan - Hongqiao Group up about 5.75% to 0.460 yuan - Tianqi Lithium gaining over 4.81% to 57.700 yuan - BYD shares rising by 3.97% to 99.500 yuan - Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) increasing by 1.94% to 494.600 yuan [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that lithium carbonate futures have experienced a significant price increase, reaching a limit up of 12% to 174,060 yuan/ton, marking the second consecutive day of limit up [1] - The CSI sub-sector chemical industry index (000813.CSI) rose by 1.46%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Kasei Bio (up over 13%), Salt Lake Co. (up over 8%), and Xingfa Group (up over 6%) [1] - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) reported a trading volume of 23.516 million yuan, with a cumulative net inflow of 209 million yuan over the past nine trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The increase in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to changes in export policy expectations and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with a notable surge in prices following the adjustment of export tax rebate policies [1] - The market anticipates a "rush to export" due to the expected cancellation of VAT export rebates for battery products starting January 1, 2027, which may further influence demand for lithium carbonate [2] - Short-term demand expectations are strengthening, suggesting that lithium carbonate prices may continue to maintain a strong trend despite potential volatility risks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Kong lithium battery stocks have significantly surged, driven by a new export tax policy announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration [1] - The export tax rate for battery products will be phased down starting in April 2026, decreasing from 9% to 6%, and will be completely eliminated by 2027 [1] - Market reactions indicate a strong expectation for short-term demand increase and downstream production ramp-up, despite unchanged long-term demand logic for new energy and energy storage [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include: - China Innovation Aviation up approximately 9% to 29.560 [2] - Ganfeng Lithium up nearly 7% to 63.150 [2] - Hongqiao Group up nearly 6% to 0.460 [2] - Tianqi Lithium up over 5% to 57.700 [2] - BYD Company up 3.97% to 99.500 [2] - Contemporary Amperex Technology up 1.94% to 494.600 [2] - Lithium carbonate futures have hit the daily limit for two consecutive days, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassing 170,000 yuan per ton, marking a new high since October 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium battery concept stocks have collectively rebounded, driven by changes in export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products, which are expected to influence short-term demand and production schedules [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) increased by 7.1%, reaching 63.35 HKD - CATL (300750)(03750) rose by 1.28%, trading at 491.4 HKD - Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) saw a 5.36% increase, priced at 58 HKD - Zhongxin Innovation (03931) climbed by 6.4%, now at 28.94 HKD [1] Group 2: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a phased reduction of export tax rates for battery products starting in 2026, ultimately leading to the cancellation of these rates [1] - CITIC Futures noted that the market reacted quickly to the "export rush" logic due to the policy change [1] Group 3: Market Implications - The adjustment in export tax rates is expected to drive a surge in battery exports before 2026, increasing the demand for lithium ore and lithium hexafluorophosphate, thus tightening supply [1] - Huatai Securities believes that the reduction in export tax rates will lead to the elimination of outdated domestic production capacity in the long term, optimizing the battery industry landscape and benefiting companies with overseas production capacity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is attributed to strong fundamental expectations and multiple positive market news, with the main contract LC2605 rising by 9% to 156,300 yuan/ton [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for battery products, effective from April 1, 2026, is expected to create a short-term "export rush," supporting demand and alleviating concerns about seasonal demand weakness [2]. - The cumulative export volume of power and other batteries from January to November 2025 reached 260.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, indicating that the anticipated "export rush" will have a marginal positive impact on overall lithium carbonate demand [2]. Policy Impact - The reduction and eventual cancellation of the export tax rebate for lithium batteries is seen as a move to guide the industry away from pure scale expansion and to alleviate homogenization competition pressures [4]. - The policy aims to encourage companies to enhance product technology and value, promoting a healthier and more sustainable industry structure [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - Current market conditions suggest a gradual accumulation of lithium carbonate inventory, with signs of weakening fundamentals as of early January 2026 [4]. - The market is characterized by strong supply and demand dynamics, with ongoing negotiations between upstream and downstream players affecting price volatility [4]. Future Projections - There is an expectation of continued "export rush" demand from battery manufacturers until the cancellation of the tax rebate in 2027, potentially leading to concentrated short-term demand for lithium carbonate [5]. - However, a significant decline in demand for new energy batteries is anticipated at the beginning of 2026, necessitating production adjustments by battery manufacturers [5]. - The market may face dual impacts from upstream maintenance and traditional seasonal demand downturns, suggesting potential volatility in supply and demand [5].

行业 碳酸锂期货日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 13 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货涨停，主要是由于 1 月 9 日中国财政部与税务总局宣布，自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%； 2027 年 1 月 1 日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。短期锂电池有抢出口预期， 这将令一季度传统淡季不淡，下游补货预期增加， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon market are neutral, with both supply and demand in a weak - reality stage. The futures price of industrial silicon will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The futures price of industrial silicon oscillated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,755 yuan/ton, with a 0.75% increase. The trading volume was 269,300 lots, the open interest was 238,877 lots, a net decrease of 827 lots. The top 20 long positions had a net reduction of 1,799 lots, and short positions had a net increase of 5,299 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Spot prices remained stable. The price of 553 - grade in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,900 yuan/ton. The price of 421 - grade in Sichuan was 9,900 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia was 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - In the first quarter, the monthly average output is expected to be around 350,000 tons. Demand is weak. The organic silicon operating rate is stable without fulfilling the expected centralized production cuts. Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated stage from anti - involution to anti - monopoly policy correction, with monthly output decreasing month - on - month. Industrial silicon inventories are high, enterprises are scattered, the market is dull, and spot prices are weakly stable, making it difficult to break through the upside. The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to remain range - bound [4]. 3.4 Market News - On January 12th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,888 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day. On January 9th, the Ministry of Finance announced that starting from April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In 2024, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products was reduced from 13% to 9% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the futures market, providing insights into their market trends, supply - demand situations, and investment strategies. For instance, it mentions that the export tax - rebate policy adjustment will lead to a "rush - to - export" phenomenon in the lithium carbonate and shipping industries, while the US Department of Justice's investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may cause market fluctuations [7][8][150]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Gold and Silver - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment is rising, with the Shanghai gold 2602 contract closing at 1,026.28 yuan, up 1.97% [18]. - Silver: Prices are rising rapidly, with the Shanghai silver 2602 contract closing at 20,957 yuan, up 11.92% [18]. Copper - Spot prices are strengthening, supporting the price. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 103,800 yuan, up 2.36% [21]. Zinc - The market is oscillating strongly. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,175 yuan, up 0.86% [24]. Lead - A decrease in LME inventory supports the price. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,475 yuan, up 0.46% [27]. Tin - The market is oscillating upwards. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 376,920 yuan, up 6.92% [30]. Aluminum - The market is running strongly. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,650 yuan, up 1.31% [36]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: Narrow - range oscillation. The platinum futures 2606 contract closed at 622.80 yuan, up 3.83% [38]. - Palladium: Range - bound oscillation. The palladium futures 2606 contract closed at 505.10 yuan, up 1.21% [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range fluctuations. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 144,200 yuan, up 3.6% [43]. - Stainless steel: The price of nickel - iron raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,855 yuan [43]. Lithium Carbonate - Driven by the expectation of a "rush - to - export", attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand after a significant price increase. The 2601 contract closed at 146,000 yuan, up 5.0% [48]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Affected by geopolitical factors, prices are at a one - month high. The front - month ICE Brent contract closed at 63.34 dollars/barrel, up 2.18% [79]. PX, PTA, and MEG - PX: Unilateral high - level oscillation. The PX main contract closed at 7,308 yuan, up 0.97% [76]. - PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The PTA main contract closed at 5,142 yuan, up 0.67% [76]. - MEG: Low - level rebound, with limited downward valuation space. The MEG main contract closed at 3,880 yuan, up 0.36% [76]. Rubber - Wide - range oscillation. The rubber main contract closed at a price not specified in the report [84]. Synthetic Rubber - Upward pressure is gradually increasing. The butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract) closed at 12,070 yuan, up 55 yuan [88]. LLDPE - Some production of standard products is being redirected, and regional spot shortages are being replenished. The L2605 contract closed at 6,737 yuan, up 0.94% [91]. PP - Downstream "rush - to - export" supports propylene, and PP has strong cost support. The PP2605 contract closed at 6,560 yuan, up 0.71% [94]. Caustic Soda - Weak oscillation. The 03 - contract futures price was 2,180 yuan, and the Shandong spot 32 - alkali price was 685 yuan [96]. Pulp - Wide - range oscillation. The pulp main contract (05 contract) closed at 5,490 yuan, down 60 yuan [103]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The FG605 contract closed at 1,143 yuan, down 0.09% [107]. Methanol - High - level oscillation. The methanol main contract (05 contract) closed at 2,263 yuan, down 10 yuan [111]. Urea - Short - term correction, medium - term strength. The urea main contract (05 contract) closed at 1,783 yuan, up 6 yuan [115]. Styrene - Short - term oscillation. The styrene 2601 contract closed at 6,775 yuan, down 3 yuan [118]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The SA2605 contract closed at 1,239 yuan, up 1.31% [123]. LPG - Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. The PG2602 contract closed at 4,239 yuan, up 0.43% [127]. Propylene - Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend. The PL2602 contract closed at 5,978 yuan, up 1.10% [127]. PVC - Weak oscillation. The 05 - contract futures price was 4,940 yuan, and the East China spot price was 4,620 yuan [135]. Fuel Oil - The weak trend continues, with support at the bottom. The FU2602 contract closed at 2,501 yuan, down 1.42% [139]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Entered into an oscillatory phase, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market is continuously rebounding. The LU2602 contract closed at 3,040 yuan, down 0.52% [139]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil - The upward momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the price is mainly within a range. The soybean oil main contract closed at 7,994 yuan, unchanged [172]. Palm Oil - After a negative report was released, the rebound in crude oil prices boosted the price of palm oil. The palm oil main contract closed at 8,724 yuan, up 0.48% [172]. Bean Meal - The USDA report is bearish, and the price may follow the decline of US soybeans. The DCE bean - meal 2605 contract closed at 2,790 yuan, up 0.14% [180]. Bean One - Affected by the USDA report, the price may adjust and oscillate. The DCE bean - one 2605 contract closed at 4,356 yuan, down 0.55% [180]. Corn - Attention should be paid to the spot price. The C2603 contract closed at 2,290 yuan, up 1.19% [184]. Sugar - Range consolidation. The futures main - contract price was 5,285 yuan, down 3 yuan [187]. Cotton - Continued adjustment. The CF2605 contract closed at 14,625 yuan, down 0.34% [192]. Eggs - Spot trading is profitable, but the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening. The egg 2602 contract closed at 2,996 yuan, up 0.23% [198]. Hogs - There is negative feedback in demand, and supply is expected to increase. The hog 2603 contract closed at 11,770 yuan, up 50 yuan [201]. Peanuts - Oscillatory operation. The PK603 contract closed at 7,868 yuan, down 1.67% [204]. Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - Pay attention to the cabin - opening guidance; lightly short the 04 contract. The EC2602 contract closed at 1,748.0 points, up 1.03%, and the EC2604 contract closed at 1,280.8 points, up 11.3% [141][150].

锂价狂飙势头仍在持续。 1月12日，碳酸锂主力合约继续飙升，当日一字涨停(涨幅为9%)，报收156060元／吨。碳酸锂现货与期 货价格保持联动，"我的钢铁网"数据显示，1月12日，电池级碳酸锂(晚盘)均价报153400元／吨，吨价 较前一个交易日上涨13800元，再次创下近一年来新高。 "碳酸锂价格的强势拉升，或与锂电池出口退税政策调整有关。"相关人士告诉上海证券报记者，电池产 品增值税出口退税率下调或大幅提升锂电下游企业备货热情，也进一步影响到本就"紧平衡"的碳酸锂市 场。 出口退税政策调整 电池企业备货热情提升 进入2026年，碳酸锂主力合约在5个交易日内累计涨幅达20.06%。从记者了解的情况来看，碳酸锂"开 年就大涨"的情况已超出业内预期。 "从下游需求和市场热度来看，行业肯定是回暖了不少，但锂价能涨这么快，的确也没想到。"青海某年 产万吨级碳酸锂企业人士告诉记者，从实际销售价格来看，目前还没有15万元/吨那么高，但按照期货 及现货价格走势来看，售价超过15万元应该用不了多长时间。 2025年下半年以来，在储能市场需求高速增长的拉动下，碳酸锂价格持续上涨，行业供需进入"紧平 衡"。有业内人士表示，在" ...