Group 1 - The U.S. has announced additional tariffs on Indian goods as a punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil, with tariffs set to increase to 50% starting August 27 [1] - President Trump indicated that there are currently no plans to impose tariffs on Chinese goods related to their purchase of Russian oil, despite previous threats [1][2] - The extension of the trade truce between the U.S. and China for an additional 90 days aims to alleviate the high tariffs that had surged earlier in the spring [1] Group 2 - Trump described the meeting with President Putin as successful, despite not reaching a ceasefire agreement, and called for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia [2][3] - The Chinese government maintains a consistent stance on its energy cooperation with Russia, asserting that such activities are legitimate and based on national interests [3]

Core Points - President Trump indicated that he currently has no plans to impose tariffs on Chinese products due to China's purchase of Russian oil, citing progress in discussions with Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict [1] - Trump previously threatened tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy to pressure Putin into peace negotiations with Ukraine [1] - The U.S. plans to increase tariffs on Indian products to 50% starting August 27 in response to India's oil purchases from Moscow [1] - Imposing tariffs on China could disrupt the recently extended trade truce between the U.S. and China, which has helped reduce previously high tariffs [1] - Despite not reaching a ceasefire agreement with Putin during the Alaska meeting, Trump noted that there was consensus on several issues and urged Ukraine's President Zelensky to negotiate with Putin [1] Industry Response - The Chinese government maintains a consistent stance on its energy cooperation with countries including Russia, asserting that such activities are legitimate and in line with national interests [2] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that it will continue to take reasonable energy security measures based on its own national interests [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is currently not planning to impose tariffs on Chinese products due to their purchase of Russian oil, as he believes progress has been made in discussions with Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict [1] - Trump had previously threatened tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy to pressure Putin into peace negotiations with Ukraine, but he has now decided to extend the trade truce with China for another 90 days [1][2] - The trade truce has led to a reduction in tariffs that had surged to high levels in the spring, alleviating the impact on global markets [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government maintains a consistent stance on its energy cooperation with Russia and other countries, asserting that such activities are legitimate and in line with its national interests [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions taken by the United States against India for purchasing Russian oil, including the imposition of additional tariffs on Indian goods, and the potential for similar actions against China in the future [1]. Group 1 - The U.S. has announced additional tariffs on Indian goods as a punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil [1]. - There are threats from the U.S. to impose secondary tariffs on Chinese goods due to China's purchases of Russian oil [1]. - President Trump stated that there are currently no plans to impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil, following his meeting with President Putin [1][2]. Group 2 - Trump mentioned that he may need to reconsider the issue of tariffs on China in two to three weeks, but for now, it is not a priority [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decision by the United States to impose additional tariffs on Indian goods as a punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil, while also hinting at potential secondary tariffs on Chinese goods due to similar purchases [1] Group 1 - The U.S. has announced extra tariffs on Indian products in response to India's acquisition of Russian oil [1] - President Trump indicated that there are currently no plans to impose tariffs on Chinese goods related to their purchase of Russian oil, following his meeting with President Putin [1] - Trump mentioned that he may reconsider the issue of tariffs on China in two to three weeks, but for now, it is not a priority [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced additional tariffs on Indian goods as a punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil [1] - There are threats from the U.S. to impose secondary tariffs on Chinese goods due to China's purchase of Russian oil [1] - President Trump stated that there are currently no plans to impose tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil after his meeting with President Putin [3] Group 2 - Trump mentioned that he may reconsider the issue of tariffs on China in two to three weeks, but it is not an immediate concern [3] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated that China's energy cooperation with countries, including Russia, is legitimate and based on national interests [3]

Group 1 - The article reports that U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on steel and chips next week, starting with a lower tax rate [1] - The focus on tariffs indicates a potential shift in trade policy that could impact the steel and semiconductor industries significantly [1] Group 2 - The article references the "China IC Unicorn Alliance," suggesting a growing interest in the semiconductor sector within China [3] - The mention of the article being a reprint indicates a broader discussion on the implications of U.S. tariffs on global supply chains and market dynamics [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the origin has strong supply and demand, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2]. - For soybean oil, the reduction of US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil closed at 9,362 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.56% increase and 9,414 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase; soybean oil closed at 8,488 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.38% increase and 8,516 yuan/ton at night with a 0.33% increase; rapeseed oil closed at 9,802 yuan/ton during the day session with a 2.23% increase and 10,079 yuan/ton at night with a 2.83% increase [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil trading volume decreased by 124,344 lots to 443,030 lots, and open interest decreased by 29,322 lots to 270,663 lots; soybean oil trading volume decreased by 23,809 lots to 140,203 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,769 lots to 306,250 lots; rapeseed oil trading volume increased by 77,172 lots to 271,285 lots, and open interest decreased by 8,561 lots to 117,479 lots [3]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,260 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 102 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 162 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 112 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 448 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 886 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Anti - Dumping Investigation**: The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate on all Canadian companies, causing a 4.5% drop in ICE Canadian rapeseed futures [4][5]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the 24% additional tariff on US imports will be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff will be retained [5]. - **US Soybean Supply and Demand**: According to the August USDA supply - demand report, the expected US soybean production for 2025/2026 is 4.292 billion bushels, the expected ending inventory is 290 million bushels, and the expected yield is 53.6 bushels per acre [5]. - **Indian Oil Imports**: Indian soybean oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to soar 60% year - on - year to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory**: Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a 19 - month high of 2.11 million tons in July. Analysts expect the inventory to remain above 2 million tons, with prices likely to decline in Q3 and rise in Q4 [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [7].

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by Trump has severely impacted the global economy, with China's countermeasures leading to a shift in attitudes among various countries towards the U.S. [1][4][11] - The UK Chancellor, Reeves, has openly rejected U.S. requests to isolate China, labeling such actions as foolish and emphasizing the importance of maintaining contact with China [9][14][22]. - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on UK goods, including a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff on UK automotive exports, which constitutes over 10% of the UK's total exports to the U.S. [22][24][26]. Group 2 - The UK's refusal to align with the U.S. against China reflects a broader recognition among nations that isolating a major economy like China is impractical and detrimental to their own interests [7][30][34]. - The response from the UK indicates a potential shift in the dynamics of international relations, where countries are reconsidering their alliances in light of U.S. actions [36][39]. - China's stance remains focused on cooperation and mutual benefit, rejecting the notion of being a pawn in U.S. geopolitical strategies [32][34].

Core Points - South African President Ramaphosa and US President Trump held a phone conversation on bilateral trade issues, agreeing to continue discussions on trade negotiations [1] - A new round of US tariffs is set to take effect on August 8, with South Africa facing a 30% tariff rate, the highest among sub-Saharan African countries [1] - South Africa's exports to the US account for approximately 7.5% of its total exports, primarily consisting of intermediate goods for US industries and agricultural products [1] - The new tariffs may reduce South Africa's economic growth rate by 0.2%, potentially affecting around 30,000 jobs [1] - In response to the economic impact, the South African government has initiated several measures, including establishing an export support platform and promoting export market diversification [1]