劳动力市场

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DLSM外汇平台:美联储关注焦点转向劳动力市场,央行年会即将登场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 10:55
市场仍有可能继续抱有9月降息50个基点的希望。 DLSM外汇平台补充,如果就业数据再度令人失望,市场可能会尝试推动9月降息50个基点的预期。 DLSM外汇平台指出,今年杰克逊霍尔会议的核心主题将聚焦于劳动力市场。目前,美联储决策者在内部正就 劳动力市场的紧张状况究竟反映的是劳动参与率下降,还是更广泛的经济放缓,展开激烈辩论。 DLSM外汇平台认为,9月的政策决定将更多取决于劳动力市场前景,而非价格水平。不过,通胀走势也会起 到强化作用,因为物价上涨可能进一步恶化增长前景,从而增加美联储推动降息的概率。 杰克逊霍尔会议将成为外界解读美联储沟通的首个关键场合。但DLSM外汇平台表示,相比年会本身,接下来 的几项事件—— 9月5日的非农就业数据(NFP)和9月10日的消费者物价指数(CPI)—— 对市场可能更为重 要。 ...
杰克逊霍尔会议最全指引:鲍威尔讲话前你必须知道的一切
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-21 09:28
本周五,全球金融市场的目光将聚焦怀俄明州大提顿山脚下的杰克逊霍尔。 届时美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔全球央行会议上发表讲话,市场密切关注他是否将为9月降息打开大门。 目前货币市场交易员预期,9月降息25基点的 可能性达到80%。 杰克逊霍尔会议历来是美联储传递政策信号的重要平台,2023年鲍威尔的讲话曾引导市场预期9月的首次降息。 今年的会议主题定为 "转型中的劳动力市场:人口、生产率与宏观政策"。表面上是学术议题,但实际传递出的信号是: 在通胀回落之后,美联储正把重心重新 移向就业。而在劳动力市场出现裂痕的当下,政策基调的微调,可能直接决定未来几个月的市场走向。 与此同时,本次会议还可能涉及美联储框架审查的部分结果, 多家大型投行预计鲍威尔可能部分扭转2020年会议上引入的弹性平均通胀目标(FAIT)政策, 重新平衡美联储对就业和通胀的双重使命。 聚焦鲍威尔对劳动力市场的看法 鲍威尔将于美国东部时间周五上午10点(北京时间周五晚10点)发表题为"经济展望与框架审查"的演讲。 市场关注点在于他如何评价7月就业报告中显示的美国劳动力市场疲软迹象,以及这些数据是否已足以促使美联储在9月会议上启动降息周期。 鲍威 ...
报告:美联储主席鲍威尔可能在杰克逊霍尔会议上保持中性基调
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 05:05
普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci报告表示,在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲之际,美联储主席鲍威尔可能 会寻求为未来几次美国联邦公开市场委员会会议保留最大的灵活性,并强调政策路径将取决于通胀和劳 动力市场数据。在9月17日的美联储会议之前,还将公布一份就业报告和一份CPI报告。如果通胀数据 意外大大强于预期或劳动力市场强劲反弹,那么下一次会议可能不会降息。如果8月份就业人数增幅放 缓至每月50,000人以下,且失业率上升,则可能会出现降息50个基点的偏宽松结果。 ...
凌晨重磅,美联储公布!信息量很大
中国基金报· 2025-08-21 00:00
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate that nearly all decision-makers support maintaining interest rates without cuts, with only two dissenting voices [17][19][22]. Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.04% at 44,938.31 points, while the S&P 500 fell 0.24% to 6,395.78 points, marking its fourth consecutive decline. The Nasdaq dropped 0.67% to 21,172.86 points [3][22]. - Large technology stocks experienced a broad decline, with the Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index down 1.07% [7][10]. - Notable declines among major tech companies included Apple down 1.97%, Amazon down 1.84%, and Tesla down 1.64% [10][11]. Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed a slight increase against the market trend, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 0.33% and the Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index up 0.01% [12][14]. - Leading gainers in the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index included Zhengye Biology up 24.87% and NEXT TECHNOLOGY up 12.62% [14]. Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting highlighted that inflation remains slightly above the 2% target, with discussions indicating that tariff impacts are becoming more evident in data [19][20]. - Participants expressed concerns about the potential long-term effects of tariffs on inflation expectations and emphasized the importance of monetary policy in managing these risks [20][22]. - The labor market is observed to be close to full employment, with low unemployment rates, but there are indicators suggesting potential softening in labor demand [21][22]. Financial Stability Concerns - Concerns were raised regarding financial stability, particularly regarding high asset valuation pressures and vulnerabilities in the banking sector due to rising long-term yields [21]. - The discussion included the potential impact of payment stablecoins on the financial system, especially following the recent passage of the GENIUS Act [21].
马来西亚二季度经济增长稳健
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-08-20 23:11
Economic Growth - Malaysia's GDP grew by 4.4% year-on-year in Q2, maintaining a steady growth trend despite a complex external environment, slightly below the earlier forecast of 4.5% but above market expectations of 4.3% [1] - Seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, significantly higher than the 0.7% growth in Q1, indicating economic resilience [1] Domestic Demand - Strong domestic demand was a key driver of economic growth, with household consumption rising by 5.3% year-on-year and public consumption increasing by 6.4% in Q2 [1] - Government policies, such as raising minimum wages and adjusting civil servant salaries, enhanced consumer purchasing power, contributing to a thriving consumption market [1] - Private and public investments grew by 10.2% and 6.8%, respectively, further supporting economic expansion [1] Sector Performance - The services sector grew by 5.1% year-on-year, driven by active performance in wholesale and retail, as well as food and beverage sub-sectors [2] - Manufacturing sector growth slowed but still achieved a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with electrical, electronic, and optical products showing sustained growth [2] - Agriculture and construction sectors also reported growth rates of 2.1% and 12.1%, respectively [2] Labor Market - Total employment in Malaysia increased by 2.9% year-on-year, reaching 16.86 million, with an unemployment rate stable at 3%, down 5.7% from the previous year [2] - Labor force participation rate rose to 70.8%, indicating a robust labor market that supports household consumption and sustainable economic growth [2] Trade Performance - Despite challenges, Malaysia's trade performance showed some highlights, with a significant 72.6% drop in net exports due to reduced commodity exports, particularly in mining [2] - Strong performance in electrical and electronic product exports partially offset the overall decline in exports [2] - Malaysia's important position in regional supply chains and trade cooperation with other countries provided some buffer against export market pressures [2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Malaysia's inflation remained moderate in Q2, with the overall inflation rate decreasing from 1.5% in Q1 to 1.3%, and core inflation holding steady at 1.8% [3] - The decline in fuel prices and a slowdown in food price increases were the main reasons for the drop in inflation rates, providing stability for consumer purchasing power and room for monetary policy adjustments [3] - The central bank expects overall inflation to remain moderate, ranging between 1.5% and 2.3% for the year [3] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that Malaysia's economy may face challenges in the second half of the year, with potential further slowdown in exports [3] - However, continued domestic demand growth and stable investment activities are expected to provide some support for the economy [3] - The recovery of the tourism sector and the advancement of infrastructure projects are anticipated to inject new momentum into the economy [3]
美联储会议纪要:预计失业率将于 2025 年底升破自然水平并维持至 2027 年
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 18:41
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate that the projected real GDP growth from 2025 to 2027 remains largely consistent with previous forecasts, despite some economic headwinds [1] Economic Outlook - The impact of trade tariffs is expected to manifest later and with a weaker effect, while sluggish consumer spending growth and downward adjustments in population expectations partially offset positive factors [1] - The labor market is anticipated to weaken, with the unemployment rate expected to exceed the natural rate by the end of 2025 and remain above that level throughout the forecast period [1]
美联储会议纪要:失业率仍处于低位
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 18:25
美联储发布7月会议纪要,其中提到,在讨论劳动力市场时,与会者注意到失业率仍处于低位,就业人 数已达到或接近最大就业水平的估算值。几位与会者指出,失业率的低水平和稳定性是低招聘率与低裁 员率共同作用的结果。一些与会者表示,他们的联系人及商业调查受访者称,在不确定性较高的情况 下,企业不愿招聘或裁员。关于劳动力市场前景,一些与会者提到了可能表明劳动力需求疲软的指标, 包括就业增长放缓且更集中、周期性敏感的黑人及青年失业率上升,以及跳槽者的工资涨幅低于留任 者。 ...
杰克逊霍尔央行年会,鲍威尔关键发声,为何华尔街一致“示警”
美股IPO· 2025-08-18 15:15
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to be critical, especially in the context of high market expectations for monetary easing, with various banks predicting a hawkish stance from Powell contrary to market beliefs [2][5][11]. Group 1: Economic Context - Barclays analysts argue that the current economic backdrop is significantly different from last year, suggesting that the market's confidence in a rate cut is misplaced [3][4]. - The current policy interest rate is 100 basis points lower compared to the same time last year, with core PCE inflation expected to accelerate above 3% [4][9]. - Despite a slowdown in employment growth, the labor market remains resilient, and consumer spending shows strength, as evidenced by upward revisions in July retail sales data [4][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Labor Market - Bank of America emphasizes that the core inflation rate remains above 3%, and the labor market's resilience provides the Fed with sufficient reasons to maintain a strong stance [9][10]. - The latest inflation data shows a year-on-year increase in core CPI to 3.1% in July, up from 2.9% in June, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [9][10]. - Concerns about inflation are heightened by external factors such as tariffs, which are expected to impact consumer prices and inflation expectations [12]. Group 3: Fed's Policy Outlook - Nomura anticipates that Powell will hint at the possibility of policy easing but will maintain a cautious overall stance due to upcoming economic data [11]. - The Fed's ongoing policy framework review may lead to a re-evaluation of its approach to inflation and interest rates, potentially abandoning the "flexible average inflation targeting" [14]. - The political dynamics surrounding the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) could also affect the integrity of future economic data, raising concerns about the accuracy of employment and inflation estimates [12].
美联储9月降息并非板上钉钉?市场面临变盘风险!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-18 10:25
Group 1 - The bond market has reduced expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September following concerning Producer Price Index (PPI) data, but traders remain overly optimistic about the speed and scale of the Federal Reserve's easing plans [1] - Tim Duy, Chief Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, predicts a "chaotic insurance cut" in September, but Powell is unlikely to commit to further cuts, linking policy to subsequent data which introduces uncertainty for fixed income markets [1][2] - Current market pricing indicates three rate cuts this year, totaling 100 basis points over the next 12 months [1] Group 2 - Duy emphasizes that the September rate cut is not guaranteed and is contingent on upcoming data, which may frustrate market participants [2] - He notes that consumer resilience and strong retail sales data contrast with persistent inflation, which could hinder rate cuts; the median forecast for inflation in Q4 2025 is 3% [2][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to be 3.1% year-on-year in Q4, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 3 - The median forecast for the unemployment rate in Q4 is 4.4%, lower than previous estimates, indicating a potential shift in labor market dynamics [4] - Duy suggests that the dual mandate of the Fed complicates the likelihood of rate cuts, leading to hesitance among some board members, predicting only two cuts this year [4] - Since June of last year, the outlook for the Fed's dual mandate has deteriorated [6] Group 4 - Powell is expected to defend the Fed's independence in an upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, maintaining cautious language regarding monetary policy [6]
最后一次参会!美联储主席鲍威尔会在全球央行年会上顺应9月降息预期吗?
第一财经· 2025-08-18 09:36
Core Viewpoint - Investors in U.S. Treasury bonds are closely monitoring signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference, particularly regarding the anticipated interest rate cuts in September [3][6]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year to assess the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the economy. There is a divergence among policymakers regarding when to resume rate cuts, especially given that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and signs of a slowing labor market are emerging [6][12]. Market Expectations - The bond market has returned to aggressive rate cut bets, with an approximately 85% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in September. Some traders are even speculating on a 50 basis point cut in one go [7][8]. The market anticipates that Powell will align with these expectations, although he may emphasize that the decision will depend on economic data leading up to the meeting [7]. Historical Context of Powell's Speeches - Powell's speeches at Jackson Hole have historically influenced market movements. His first speech in 2018 outlined key variables facing central banks and indicated a pragmatic approach to monetary policy. Over the years, he has navigated various economic challenges, including inflation spikes and the pandemic [10][11]. Future Implications - The upcoming employment report on September 5 will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making process. If the report indicates weakness in the labor market, it is likely that the market will price in a 25 basis point cut, and Powell is expected not to oppose this market sentiment [8][12].