1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern within a range, but the upward resistance is increasing. Geopolitical disturbances provide bottom support for oil prices, but the seasonal weakening of the demand side may cause the market to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - On September 10, the price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly to 486.2 yuan/barrel (+0.7%), with an intraday fluctuation range of 481.0 - 490.5 yuan/barrel. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained flat at 62.77 dollars/barrel and 66.53 dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI widened to 1.74 dollars/barrel (+41.46%) and 5.5 dollars/barrel (+10.22%) respectively, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread dropped significantly to - 0.3 yuan/barrel (previous value: 4.0 yuan/barrel) [2]. 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain Supply Side - Russia will increase its western port oil exports in September by 11% to 210 million barrels per day due to a refinery attack. The US White House plans to require large refineries to share the biofuel blending exemption quota of small refineries, which may weaken refinery's crude oil import demand if the policy is implemented. The OPEC+ online meeting evaluated market trends, but no specific production adjustment signals from oil - producing countries were seen [3]. Demand Side - US EIA data shows that on the week of September 5, refinery equipment utilization rose to 94.9% (expected 93.7%), but crude oil implied demand declined to 1920.3 million barrels per day (previous value: 1982 million barrels per day). Gasoline and distillate implied demand also decreased to 950.17 million barrels per day and 477.24 million barrels per day respectively. High refinery operating rates and weak terminal demand may indicate an increased risk of refined oil inventory accumulation [3]. Inventory Side - The total inventory of US crude oil and refined oil reached the largest increase since 2023. Commercial crude oil inventory increased by 393.9 million barrels (expected a decrease of 104 million barrels), refined oil inventory increased by 471.5 million barrels (expected an increase of 3.5 million barrels), and gasoline inventory increased by 145.8 million barrels (expected a decrease of 24.3 million barrels). China's crude oil futures warrants remained at a high level of 572.1 million barrels [4]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - Short - term crude oil prices may maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern within a range, but the upward resistance is increasing. Supply - side contradictions are prominent, demand resilience is insufficient, and structural contradictions are emerging. Geopolitical disturbances provide bottom support for oil prices, but the seasonal weakening of the demand side may cause the market to enter an oscillatory consolidation phase [5]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose by 0.7% to 486.2 yuan/barrel, WTI rose by 0.65% to 63.18 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose by 1.61% to 67.60 dollars/barrel. - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, while other spot prices showed various changes. - Spreads: SC - Brent spread decreased by 45.53%, SC - WTI spread increased by 2.00%, and Brent - WTI spread increased by 17.55%. - Other assets: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes [7]. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose by 0.72% to 2786 yuan/ton, LU decreased by 0.06% to 3383 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 0.5%. - Spot prices: Most spot prices had slight changes, and some remained unchanged. - Paper - cargo prices: Some paper - cargo prices were not available. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 3.55% [8]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretations Supply - On September 10, Russia increased its September western port oil exports by 11% to 210 million barrels per day due to a refinery drone attack. On September 7, eight countries held an online meeting to assess the global market situation and future development trends [9]. Demand - The US Energy Secretary expects strong global economic recovery and a significant increase in oil demand in the next few years. However, US EIA data shows a decline in the implied demand for distillate fuel oil, gasoline, and crude oil [10]. Inventory - On September 10, the warehouse futures warrants of low - sulfur fuel oil, medium - sulfur crude oil, and fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the warehouse warrants of petroleum asphalt decreased by 300 tons, and the warehouse warrants of pulp increased by 38 tons [11]. Market Information - As of 2:30 closing, the main contracts of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil had corresponding changes. The Trump administration appealed the court's ruling to block the removal of Fed Governor Cook. The US White House is reviewing a new rule that requires large refineries to bear the biofuel blending exemption quota of small refineries [12]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, PAJ, iFinD, etc. [13][15][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight Israeli air - strike on the Hamas base in Qatar has increased the risk sentiment of geopolitical concerns, and the situation in Gaza is unlikely to improve. The EIA's short - term energy outlook remains pessimistic about future oil prices, and the API inventory has increased more than expected, putting pressure on prices. In the short term, continue to monitor geopolitical changes. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate. It is predicted to operate in the range of 480 - 490 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Israel's air - strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar has escalated the military operation in the Middle East. The EIA predicts that global oil prices will drop significantly in the coming months as OPEC+ production increases, causing a large increase in oil inventories. The U.S. economic employment figures may be 911,000 less than previously estimated. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On September 9, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.05 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.38 per barrel. The basis was $37.67 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending September 5 increased by 1.25 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.869 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.031 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 1.59 million barrels. As of September 9, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the moving average, which is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 2, the main position of WTI crude oil is long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil is long, with an increase in long positions, which is neutral [3]. - **Expectation**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate. In the short term, it will operate in the range of 480 - 490, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 2. Recent News - **Israeli Attack in Qatar**: On September 9, there were several explosions in Doha, Qatar. Israel's military and security agencies admitted responsibility for the attack on Hamas leaders. The targeted Hamas leaders were said to be responsible for the 2023 attack on Israel and were planning new operations. The attack occurred during a meeting of Hamas leaders discussing a U.S. - proposed cease - fire in Gaza [5]. - **U.S. Employment Data Revision**: The U.S. government stated that the total number of employment positions in the economy as of March may be 911,000 less than previously estimated, indicating that employment growth had stagnated before Trump's tariff policies. The data revision means that the average monthly increase in non - farm employment is about 71,000 instead of 147,000. The financial market's reaction was limited, and the Fed is expected to resume interest - rate cuts next Wednesday [5]. - **Iran - IAEA Agreement**: On the evening of September 9, Iran's foreign minister and the IAEA director - general announced a new cooperation agreement in Cairo, aiming to build a new cooperation framework between Iran and the IAEA, which is the first meeting since the June bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel and the U.S. [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: None mentioned in the report. - **Bearish Factors**: The possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the continuous tension in U.S. trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, while the risk of trade tariffs is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. - **Risk Points**: Disunity within OPEC+ leading to increased production, and the escalation of war risks [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have all increased, with increases of $0.37, $0.37, $7.20, and $0.34 respectively, and the increase rates are 0.56%, 0.59%, 1.51%, and 0.49% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil have all increased, with increases of $0.22, $0.37, $0.67, $0.39, and $0.56 respectively, and the increase rates are 0.33%, 0.59%, 0.97%, 0.61%, and 0.81% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory for the week ending September 5 increased by 1.25 million barrels, and the EIA inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 2, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 102,428, a decrease of 7,044 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of September 2, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 251,054, an increase of 44,511 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but next week may increase supply pressure [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the construction asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased by 6.05% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3531 - 3571 [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: Refineries' recent production cuts reduce supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish, with most downstream开工率s lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: Crude oil strengthening provides short - term cost support, while asphalt processing losses increase [9]. - **Expectation**: Futures price to fluctuate narrowly, with asphalt 2511 in the 3531 - 3571 range [10]. - **Likely positive factors**: Relatively high crude oil cost provides some support [13]. - **Likely negative factors**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened recession expectations in Europe and the United States [14]. - **Main logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Basis**: On September 2nd, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month to 1270000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month to 674000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month to 190000 tons [11]. - **Futures price trend**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [11]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: Renders the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis [20][21]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main - contract spread**: Displays the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23][24]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil [26][27]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: Illustrates the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [33][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional market price trends**: Depicts the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt profit [38][39]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Displays the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41][43]. - **Supply side**: - **Shipment volume**: Presents the historical trends of weekly shipment volume [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46][47]. - **Production volume**: Displays the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume [49][50]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: Shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production volume**: Presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: Shows the historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: Displays the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume [61][62]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts [64][65][66]. - **Social and factory inventory**: Presents the historical trends of social and factory inventory [68][69]. - **Factory inventory - inventory ratio**: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio [71][72]. - **Import and export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import [74][75]. - **Korean asphalt import price difference trend**: Displays the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import price difference [77][78][79]. - **Demand side**: - **Petroleum coke production volume**: Presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption volume**: Shows the historical trends of apparent consumption volume [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: Displays the historical trends of highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86][87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: Presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: Shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: Displays the historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt开工率 [98]. - **Downstream开工率**: Presents the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane开工率 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is flat, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3430 - 3476 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains at a high level, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production is 2413,000 tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The sample enterprises' output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase from the previous week, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease from the previous week. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase from the previous day. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase from the previous week. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has widened. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 19, the Shandong spot price was 3550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 97 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week. The in - plant inventory is 711,000 tons, a 4.71% increase from the previous week. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a 24.00% decrease from the previous week. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions have decreased [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, weekly inventories, weekly output, and weekly开工率 of asphalt [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: It shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Output**: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output**: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trend of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of the total, social, and in - plant exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventories**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [76]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread**: It presents the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [79]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Infrastructure - Related**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][89]. - **Mechanical Equipment - Related**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [92][94]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **By - Use Classification**: It presents the historical trends of modified asphalt, construction asphalt, and other types of asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [101]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency data shows insufficient support during the peak season, and US oil demand may peak at the end of August. On the supply side, the lagged OPEC+ production increase is gradually being released, and the connection between production and the off - peak demand season may still impact the market. In the short term, after the US - Russia talks are concluded, there is a lack of positive drivers for oil prices, so one can try short - selling with a light position. In the medium to long term, continue to pay attention to opportunities for short - selling at high prices during the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [6]. Breakdown by Directory 1. International Crude Oil Analysis 1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - From August 11th to 15th, international oil prices fluctuated at low levels, waiting for the results of the US - Russia talks. As of August 15th, WTI settled at $63.31/barrel (-2.17%), Brent at $66.21/barrel (-1.56%), and INE SC at 500.62 yuan/barrel (-3.45%) [10]. - The report also provides detailed weekly price trends, cross - market arbitrage, cross - period arbitrage, cross - commodity arbitrage, and financial attribute data of various crude oils [12]. 1.2 Financial Aspects - The US July CPI was released, with inflation generally in line with expectations. The market unanimously expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, and the US stock market continued to rise. As of August 15th, the S&P 500 index reached 6449.8, continuing its rebound since mid - April, and the VIX volatility was 15.09, still at a relatively low level [14]. 1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and US Dollar Index - The crude oil ETF volatility declined this week, and the US dollar index also declined. As of August 15th, the crude oil volatility ETF was 37.22, and the US dollar index was 97.8467. Crude oil volatility rebounded due to the uncertainty of the US - Russia situation, while the US dollar index continued to decline due to reignited market expectations of interest rate cuts [16]. 1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - As of August 12th, the net long positions of WTI managed funds decreased by 32,500 contracts to 48,900 contracts compared to the previous month, a weekly decline of 39.9%. Speculative net long positions increased by 7,400 contracts to 67,900 contracts, a weekly increase of 12.2%. As the peak season gradually ends and the risk of sanctions eases, the market's bullish bets on oil price increases have further weakened [19]. 2. Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 OPEC Production - In July, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day compared to the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading the pace. However, the production of eight OPEC+ countries in June was still 84,000 barrels per day lower than planned, mainly due to some countries implementing their compensation production - cut plans [25]. - According to the IEA's statistical caliber, the production of nine OPEC member countries in July was 22.88 million barrels per day, a decrease of 320,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. The overall over - production of the nine countries decreased compared to the previous month [29]. - In July, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 170,000 barrels per day to 9.526 million barrels per day, while Iran's production decreased by 12,000 barrels per day to 3.245 million barrels per day. Geopolitical factors have begun to affect Iran's oil production [31]. 2.2 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to OPEC's statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in July was 9.12 million barrels per day, an increase of 95,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. According to the IEA's statistical caliber, it was 9.20 million barrels per day, an increase of 10,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month. Production is gradually recovering under the production - increase plan but is still at a very low level [37]. 2.3 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of August 15th, the number of active US oil - drilling rigs was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous week and a decrease of 71 compared to the same period last year. The production in the Permian Basin may face limited growth [41]. - As of the week of August 8th, US crude oil production decreased marginally to 13.327 million barrels per day, an increase of 43,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week and a 0.2% increase year - on - year. The impact of low oil prices in the first half of the year on production is starting to show, but due to improved drilling efficiency, production will not decline sharply [43]. 3. Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 US Oil Product Demand - According to EIA data as of the week of August 8th, the single - week and four - week average demand for refined oil products in the US both rebounded and are moving towards the second peak of the peak - season demand. The four - week average total demand for oil products last week was 21.159 million barrels per day, a 2.89% increase year - on - year [47]. - As of August 8th, the single - week demand for refined oil products in the US decreased, but the four - week average increased. The four - week average demand for gasoline increased by 128,000 barrels per day to 9.04 million barrels per day, a 1.52% year - on - year decrease; the average demand for distillates increased by 69,000 barrels per day to 3.592 million barrels per day, a 1.62% year - on - year decrease; the average consumption of kerosene increased by 50,000 barrels per day to 1.827 million barrels per day, a 4.22% year - on - year increase [52]. - As of August 15th, the gasoline crack spread in the US was $24.25/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $30.65/barrel. The crack spreads rebounded this week as the dominant factor shifted to the crude oil cost side, and refined oil products are still in the peak season [55]. 3.2 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of August 15th, the ICE diesel crack spread was $23.71/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.14/barrel. European diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventory and peak - season inventory replenishment demand. However, the crack spreads have declined in the past two weeks as diesel inventories have increased [59]. 3.3 Chinese Oil Products and Refinery Situation - In July, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.998 million tons year - on - year to 63.06 million tons (+6.77%); imports increased by 4.864 million tons year - on - year to 47.204 million tons (+11.49%). The decline in imports in July was a seasonal fluctuation [62]. 3.4 Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth - Three major international institutions have different views on this year's demand growth rate. OPEC maintains last month's forecast, the IEA continues to lower its demand forecast, and the EIA raises its forecast for global oil demand growth. In July, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted this year's global crude oil demand growth rates to be 890,000 barrels per day (increase), 680,000 barrels per day (decrease), and 1.3 million barrels per day (unchanged) respectively [66]. 4. Crude Oil Inventory Analysis 4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - US commercial crude oil inventories have risen back within the five - year range, and the previous support from low inventories for oil prices has started to weaken. As of August 8th, EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 303,600 barrels from the previous week to 426.7 million barrels, a 0.92% year - on - year decrease; SPR inventories increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 45,000 barrels to 23.051 million barrels [67]. - As of the week of August 8th, the US crude oil net imports increased by 699,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 3.343 million barrels per day. US refinery processing volume increased by 56,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 17.18 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate remained at 96.4% [70]. - The WTI monthly spread generally maintains a backwardation structure. As of August 15th, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.82/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.8/barrel. With the peak of US refined oil demand approaching and OPEC's accelerated production increase in the near term, the monthly spread may continue to decline [73]. 4.2 Brent Monthly Spread - The Brent monthly spread still maintains a backwardation structure. As of August 15th, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.55/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.25/barrel. It shows a positive - carry pattern but has weakened this week [76]. 5. Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance 5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the August EIA forecast, this year's global oil supply is 105.36 million barrels per day, and demand is 103.72 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.64 million barrels, which is an increase compared to last month. Despite the EIA's upward adjustment of the demand forecast, the supply pressure is expected to be greater this year due to OPEC+ ending the voluntary production - cut plan ahead of schedule [79]. 5.2 Term Structure - The US fundamental data this week shows that the single - week peak - season demand has started to decline, and the term structure has continued to flatten compared to last week. Brent can support a stronger positive - carry structure due to the previous strong diesel demand and good crack profits. Currently, international oil products can maintain a positive - carry term structure, but it may change if OPEC continues to accelerate production increase in the near term as the peak - season demand weakens [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overnight crude oil stabilized and rebounded. Russia extended the gasoline export ban. The market is waiting for the US - Russia summit in Alaska. Trump is optimistic about the success of the talks, but the US does not rule out sanctions. Putin positively evaluated the efforts made by the US, and the economic envoy of the Kremlin expects it may promote the restart of Russia - US relations. Short - term oil prices face significant fluctuations. Short - term prices are expected to move in the range of 485 - 495, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The US July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, far exceeding economists' expectations. Russia may extend the full ban on gasoline exports until September. Trump said he believes Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine, but achieving peace may require a second meeting including Ukrainian leaders. It is rated as neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On August 14, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $67.94 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $67.12 per barrel. The basis was 19.48 yuan/barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, rated as neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 1.519 million barrels, while the expected decrease was 0.941 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.036 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 0.275 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.045 million barrels. As of August 14, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, rated as bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, rated as bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased, rated as bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump believes Putin will reach an agreement in the meeting, estimating a 25% risk of failure. The "Trump - Putin meeting" on Friday is seen as paving the way for a second meeting. The US temporarily waived some sanctions on Russia for the meeting, but also warned of possible sanctions. Russia showed a relatively positive attitude [5]. - Fed Chair candidate David Zervos believes the Fed is late in approving interest rate cuts and advocates for radical easing policies to prevent labor market slowdown and create 1 million jobs [5]. - Bank of America maintains a bearish forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2025, expecting an average price of $63.50 per barrel and a possible drop below $60. It predicts an oil supply surplus of 0.89 million barrels per day from July 2025 to June 2026, which may lead to a global oil inventory increase of about 100 million barrels [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to be achieved; the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are reduced, and the risk of trade tariff issues rises. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil were $65.63, $62.65, 490.5 yuan, and $68.46 respectively, with changes of - $0.49 (- 0.74%), - $0.52 (- 0.82%), - 3.80 yuan (- 0.77%), and + $0.48 (+ 0.71%) compared to the previous day [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oils changed by - $0.65 (- 0.96%), - $0.52 (- 0.82%), - $1.13 (- 1.64%), - $1.01 (- 1.56%), and - $1.16 (- 1.69%) respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 1.519 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 156,023, an increase of 2,692 [18]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 261,352, an increase of 33,959 [20].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report, August 13, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong, Futures Practitioner Certificate No.: F03108405, Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No.: Z0021537 [3] Group 2: Relevant Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2510 (Main Contract): Price on August 13, 2025, was 3503, down 3 (-0.09%) from the previous day [2] - BU2511: Price was 3460, down 6 (-0.17%) [2] - BU2512: Price remained unchanged at 3406 [2] - SC2509: Price was 489.5, down 5.7 (-1.15%) [2] - Brent First Line: Price was 65.91, down 1.1 (-1.61%) [2] - Main Contract Positions: 22.5 million lots, up 0.2 million lots (0.84%) [2] - Main Contract Trading Volume: 12.3 million lots, up 0.3 million lots (2.42%) [2] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: 73,750 tons, unchanged [2] Basis and Spread - BU11 - 12: Spread was 54.00, down 6.00 (-10.00%) [2] - BU10 - 11: Spread was 43.00, up 3.00 (7.50%) [2] - Shandong - Main Contract Basis: 190.00, up 6.00 (3.26%) [2] - East China - Main Contract Basis: 190.00, up 6.00 (3.26%) [2] - South China - Main Contract Basis: Data unavailable [2] Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong Low - end Price: 3520, unchanged [2] - East China Low - end Price: 3650, unchanged [2] - South China Low - end Price: Data unavailable [2] - Shandong Gasoline: Price was 7732, down 6.00 (-0.08%) [2] - Shandong Diesel: Price was 6562, up 1.00 (0.02%) [2] - Shandong Petroleum Coke: Price was 2960, unchanged [2] - Diluted Asphalt Discount: -5.3, unchanged [2] - Exchange Rate Middle Price: 7.1350, down 0.01 (-0.10%) [2] Spread and Profit - Asphalt Refinery Profit: 4.36, up 52.61 (109.04%) [2] - Refined Oil Comprehensive Profit: 525.78, up 54.41 (11.54%) [2] - BU - SC Cracking Spread: -511.40, up 36.30 (6.63%) [2] - Gasoline Spot - Brent: 1204.47, up 55.90 (4.87%) [2] - Diesel Spot - Brent: 859.07, up 62.09 (7.79%) [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Overview - On August 13, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3820 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.10%) from the previous day [5] - In the North China market, demand is slowly recovering, and major refineries are limiting shipments, supporting price increases [5] - In the Shandong market, supply is abundant, and transactions are mostly at low - end prices [5] - In the Northeast market, demand is weak, and some traders are cutting prices to stimulate sales [5] - In the South market, demand is tepid, but major refineries mainly ship by sea, and inventories are at medium - low levels, so prices are stable [5] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton. Falling crude oil prices are negative for market sentiment, but asphalt prices are already relatively low, and traders' previous procurement costs are high [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt remained stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton. Low refinery operating rates and inventory levels support prices, but rain has affected terminal demand [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3530 - 3530 yuan/ton. Demand is weak, and many downstream users are pessimistic. New typhoons and high social inventories may keep prices weakly stable [6] Market Outlook - The short - term spot market is weak. Short - term precipitation affects demand release, and demand in the North will start slowly before September. The supply - demand pattern will be weak in August, and the de - stocking speed in the industrial chain will slow down [7] - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term and are bearish in the medium term. Asphalt prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, being more resilient than crude oil. The operating range of the BU main contract is expected to be between 3450 and 3550 [7] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - The report includes figures such as BU main contract closing prices, positions, East China and Shandong asphalt market prices, Shandong refined oil prices, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [9][10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week. The total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The current demand is lower than the historical average, with the overall demand recovery in the peak season falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory continuously increasing, factory inventory continuously decreasing, and port inventory continuously increasing. Crude oil prices are strengthening, providing short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [8][9][10]. - The factors affecting the market include the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support; however, there is insufficient demand for high - priced products, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 280,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.90%. The output of sample enterprises is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [9]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 144 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the factory inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. The social inventory is continuously increasing, the factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and the port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][36]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report presents the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the estimated maintenance loss volume trends from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report presents the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) trends from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio trends from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation**: The report presents the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report presents the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The report presents the trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 and the year - on - year infrastructure investment completion rate from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume trends of excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report presents the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate trends from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report shows the construction rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: The report presents the construction rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [107][108].

Core Viewpoint - In July, China's naphtha production increased by 6.45% month-on-month to 16.8574 million tons, driven by higher operating rates at domestic refineries, but a decrease in production is expected in August to around 16.7 million tons due to potential narrowing of crude oil processing volume [1][4]. Group 1: Naphtha Production - In July, China's naphtha production reached 16.8574 million tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.45% and a year-on-year growth of 6.44% [1]. - From January to July, total naphtha production was 111.9607 million tons, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.39% [1]. - The increase in July's naphtha production was primarily due to higher operating rates at domestic refineries and the commencement of new production facilities [1][3]. Group 2: Refinery Operations - Domestic refineries experienced varying degrees of increased operating rates due to the recovery from previous maintenance, with Yanshan Petrochemical halting repairs in mid-July, leading to an average operating rate increase of 1.59 percentage points to 82.57% [3]. - Despite some refineries undergoing maintenance, others like Qirun Petrochemical and Haike Ruilin resumed operations, resulting in an average operating rate increase of 0.46 percentage points to 51.33% for Shandong independent refineries [3]. - The overall crude oil processing volume in July rose by 4.96% month-on-month to 63.3238 million tons, significantly boosting naphtha production [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In August, naphtha production is expected to decrease to around 16.7 million tons, as crude oil prices are anticipated to fluctuate with a downward trend due to potential demand decline and increased supply [4]. - The operating rates for major refineries are expected to remain stable between 80%-85%, while Shandong independent refineries are likely to maintain a low operating rate around 50% due to ongoing maintenance [4]. - Overall, the crude oil processing volume is projected to see a slight month-on-month decline in August, with limited reduction in naphtha production expected [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The unexpected decline in the US services PMI data led to a significant drop in the dollar, causing gold prices to surge, reaching a peak of $3390 before closing above $3380, showcasing a remarkable V-shaped recovery [1] - Analysts predict that if gold breaks through the $3400 level, it could continue to rise towards $3410 or even $3415, driven by the weakened dollar index [1] - However, there are warnings against blindly chasing the upward trend, with key resistance identified in the $3420-$3423 range, suggesting a potential shorting opportunity if prices exceed $3418-$3423 [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, lack of interest yield from gold, and increasing US Treasury issuance are expected to exert long-term pressure on gold prices [3] - The current household gold holdings represent 3% of net wealth, the highest in half a century, indicating a potential lack of future buyers for gold [3] - The easing of trade tensions and the lack of escalation in geopolitical conflicts, along with competition from Bitcoin for safe-haven demand, suggest that the gold market may be entering a prolonged downturn [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - The WTI crude oil price has fallen below $65, with supply-demand imbalances exacerbated by US shale oil production countering OPEC's efforts to stabilize prices [4] - The recommendation is to short oil in the $65.6-$66 range, targeting $64 or even $63, as bearish sentiment dominates the market [4] - Despite the downtrend, there may be opportunities for technical rebounds, with a suggestion to buy near $63 for short-term gains, but caution is advised as the true bottom for oil prices has not yet been reached [4] Group 4: Summary of Market Trends - The gold market may see a short-term breakthrough above $3400, but caution is warranted above $3415, while the oil market should focus on shorting above $65.6 and consider small long positions near $63 [6] - The overarching trend indicates a long-term bearish outlook for gold and a search for a bottom in the oil market, emphasizing the need to avoid being misled by short-term fluctuations [6]