Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the energy market, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It assesses the supply and demand dynamics, price trends, and investment opportunities in each sector [2][3][4]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC08 contract up 1.76%. The US EIA inventory unexpectedly increased by 712,800 barrels, and OPEC+ continued its rapid production increase strategy, strengthening the supply-demand loosening expectation, especially in the fourth quarter. However, in the third quarter, oil consumption during the peak season supports physical crude oil purchases, and the supply disruption of European diesel leads to expectations of refining profit recovery. The final outcome of the US reciprocal tariffs, postponed to August 1st, is likely to be weaker than in early April. The Middle East geopolitical risks related to the Iran nuclear dispute remain. The report maintains a view that crude oil prices will rise from the bottom and fluctuate strongly in the third quarter, and short-selling strategies should be considered after the peak season's impact weakens [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the rise in oil futures, followed by LU, while FU was relatively weak. For high-sulfur fuel oil, demand from ship bunkering and deep processing was low, and the summer power generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa did not boost it. The supply risk was removed as the Middle East conflict eased, and both the single price and crack spread of FU continued to weaken. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strong coking profit led to limited short-term supply pressure due to the diversion effect, and the strengthening of the Singapore diesel crack spread since late June also provided some support. However, the demand lacked a clear driver, and LU's trend mainly followed crude oil, with the short-term crack spread expected to fluctuate [2]. Asphalt - In June, the actual refinery output exceeded the production plan by 100,000 tons (+4.3%), and the commercial inventory shifted from destocking to stocking in late June, with a stocking increase of 24,000 tons. The unplanned increase was the key variable that broke the asphalt destocking pattern. In July, the shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in shipment volume since the beginning of the year dropped from 8% to 7%. The continuous high temperature and increased rainfall in many places are expected to delay the overall demand recovery. The sales volume of road rollers increased significantly year-on-year from January to May, and the third quarter is a crucial observation window for asphalt demand recovery. Currently, the single price trend of asphalt mainly follows crude oil, but the weakening fundamentals limit the upside space of BU [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The international market supply is generally loose, and although crude oil has strengthened recently, the LPG price has remained stable. Last week, new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs continued to repair the PDH gross profit. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound rhythm of PDH operating rates. The supply pressure persists in summer, and the decline in import costs limits the upward momentum of the futures price, maintaining a weak and fluctuating trend [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that crude oil is likely to remain strong, suggesting holding long positions [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [4] Core View - Crude oil is expected to continue its upward trend, and investors are advised to hold long positions [1] Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI August crude oil futures rose $0.93 per barrel, or 1.39%, to $67.93 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures rose $1.28 per barrel, or 1.87%, to $69.58 per barrel; SC2508 crude oil futures rose 10.70 yuan per barrel, or 2.13%, to 512.00 yuan per barrel [1] Market News - High - level cease - fire talks in Doha failed to reach an agreement as the Israeli negotiation team lacked sufficient authorization [3] - Goldman Sachs maintains its Q4 2025 Brent crude price forecast at $59 per barrel and 2026 forecast at $56 per barrel, due to supply shortfalls and reduced idle capacity. It expects OPEC+ to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, fully canceling the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary cuts [3] - Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Trafigura are seeking government aid to maintain Australian smelters [3] - Saudi Arabia unexpectedly raised the price of its main crude grades for Asian buyers in August by a premium of $2.20 per barrel over the regional benchmark [3] - Indonesia proposed near - zero tariffs on 20 major US export products in tariff negotiations; Thailand's new tariff proposal imposes zero tariffs on a large number of US imports [3] - Ukrainian forces attacked a refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region with long - range drones [3] - Russia's June crude oil production was still below the OPEC+ target [3] - Libya's oil revenue in H1 2025 reached 51.1 billion Libyan dinars [3] - As of the week ending July 1, crude oil speculators increased their net long positions in WTI by 8,820 contracts to 115,063 contracts [3] - HSBC says summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere and the Middle East is absorbing OPEC+'s additional production [3] - About 20 fighter jets dropped over 50 munitions as the Israeli military attacked Houthi armed energy facilities at night [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said Canada is "highly likely" to build a new oil pipeline [2]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased production again, leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices, raising questions about whether this is a short-term adjustment or a long-term trend [1] - Institutions predict that the support level for the main SC crude oil contract is positioned below [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude oil prices are expected to decline to around $60 per barrel by early next year [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a significant drop in oil prices, suggesting potential changes in the energy market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the international oil market will continue to experience high volatility in 2025, with oil prices fluctuating between $60 and $80 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures [1][2] - From January to May 2025, oil prices showed a downward trend, decreasing from $80 per barrel to $60 per barrel, influenced by trade disputes and OPEC+ production increases [1] - In June 2025, oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, driven by escalating geopolitical situations in the Middle East, leading to a wider volatility range [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that in the second half of 2025, oil prices will remain relatively low, with Brent crude expected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 per barrel [2] - Factors such as the de-escalation of international trade disputes and increased summer demand in the U.S. are expected to support oil prices in the third quarter, with Brent crude likely to hover around $65 per barrel [2] - In the fourth quarter, a lack of positive news is expected to lead to a return to a weak oil price trend, with Brent crude potentially falling back to $60 per barrel by year-end [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the capacity utilization rate decreased, and refineries reduced production, but there may be increased supply pressure next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt have low or decreased operating rates, while the waterproofing membrane operating rate has increased [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - The refinery's recent production cut has reduced supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is weakening, and cost support is weakening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating between 3528 - 3598 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In June 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the capacity utilization rate is 32.1788%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 537,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. Refineries have reduced production this week, but there may be increased supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate is 30.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the building asphalt operating rate is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt operating rate is 14.0559%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt operating rate is 22.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane operating rate is 45%, a month - on - month increase of 13.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [9]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production cut has reduced supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory is continuously decreasing. Crude oil is weakening, and cost support is weakening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract fluctuating between 3528 - 3598 [10]. - **Leverage and Inventory**: On June 26, the spot price in Shandong is 3805 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 242 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory is 1.353 million tons, unchanged from the previous month; the factory inventory is 746,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.57% [11]. - **Market Conditions**: The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. The bullish factor is that the relative high price of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14][15]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Conditions - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis, which can help investors understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads are shown, which is useful for analyzing the price differences between different contracts [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil are presented, helping to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) are shown, which is important for analyzing the refining profit margins [28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio**: The historical price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil are presented, which can help in relative - value analysis [32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Conditions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, which can help in understanding the spot - market price movements [35]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trends of asphalt profit are presented, which can help in understanding the profitability of asphalt production [37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread are shown, which is important for analyzing the profit - distribution between coking and asphalt production [40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side sales situation [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory are shown, which can help in understanding the supply - side raw - material inventory [46]. - **Production Volume**: The historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side production levels [49]. - **Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production are shown, which can help in understanding the supply - side raw - material situation [53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trends of local refinery asphalt production are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side production structure [56]. - **Operating Rate**: The historical weekly operating rates of asphalt are presented, which can help in understanding the supply - side production activity [59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trends of maintenance loss estimation are shown, which can help in understanding the supply - side production interruptions [61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) are presented, which can help in understanding the inventory situation in the futures market [64]. - **Social and Factory Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) are presented, which can help in understanding the overall inventory situation [68]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio are presented, which can help in understanding the factory's inventory management [71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread from South Korea are presented, which can help in understanding the international - trade situation of asphalt [74]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trends of petroleum coke production are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side related - product production [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption are presented, which can help in understanding the overall demand situation [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Infrastructure - Related Demand**: The historical trends of highway - construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special - purpose bonds, and infrastructure investment completion are presented, which can help in understanding the infrastructure - related demand for asphalt [86]. - **Mechanical Equipment Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales are presented, which can help in understanding the downstream mechanical - equipment demand for asphalt - related projects [90]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side consumption of heavy - traffic asphalt [95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The historical trends of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt operating rates are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side consumption of different types of asphalt [98]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt operating rates are presented, which can help in understanding the demand - side consumption in different downstream industries [99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to June 2025 are presented, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which can help in comprehensively understanding the supply - demand situation [104].

Group 1: Report Core Views - The report focuses on the impact of the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities on the Israel-Iran conflict and the crude oil market, suggesting a preference for optimistic and neutral scenarios for the conflict's evolution, with a strategy of shorting crude oil on rallies [3][4] - Crude oil should be shorted on rallies in the optimistic and neutral scenarios, but the timing of short positions needs to be carefully considered, such as after signs of conflict de-escalation or significant supply increases from OPEC+ [4][5] Group 2: Future Evolution Paths of the Israel-Iran Conflict Optimistic Scenario - Iran either launches symbolic missile attacks on US military bases in the Middle East or does not respond, keeping the conflict limited to exchanges with Israel. Oil production and shipping in Iran are not affected. Eventually, through mediation or Israel's ceasefire, negotiations resume, and the oil price drops back to $60 (WTI) [3] Neutral Scenario - Iran attacks US military bases in the Middle East, leading to US intervention and further sanctions. The Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, and the conflict persists. Oil prices remain above $70 due to risk premiums but fall as OPEC+ increases production [3] Pessimistic Scenario - Iran attacks US military bases and blocks the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict expands, and the oil price may exceed $100, but this is a low - probability event [3] Group 3: Analysis of Various Commodities Crude Oil - Short - term influenced by the Israel - Iran conflict, with a mid - term supply - demand surplus logic taking a back seat. Wait for conflict de - escalation events. Technical analysis shows a mid - term oscillatory structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [6] Styrene (EB) - Supply is abundant with high开工 rates, and demand is weak. It is easily affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [9] Rubber - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak with high inventories. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term oscillatory structure. Strategy: hold short positions [11] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Fundamental situation is weak with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pressure. It is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for support break or de - escalation events to short [14] PX - Demand supports inventory reduction, but it is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [17] PTA - Supply increases as maintenance devices resume operation, and demand is weak. It is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [20] PP - Supply is under pressure due to increased device operation, and demand is weak. It is affected by the Israel - Iran conflict through raw material supply. Technical analysis shows a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [24] Methanol - Supply is affected by Iranian device shutdowns. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for technical break or de - escalation events to short [25] PVC - Supply is increasing as maintenance decreases, and demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn. The Israel - Iran conflict has a relatively weak impact. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait and see [28] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices resume, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical situations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [31] Plastic - There is pressure from large - scale device production in the mid - term, and it is affected by oil price fluctuations. Technical analysis shows a mid - term downward structure and a short - term upward structure. Strategy: wait for de - escalation events to short [32]

2025 年 6 月 23 日 原油：强势或未结束，多单持有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI7 月原油期货收跌 0.21 美元/桶，跌幅 2.80%，报 74.93 美元/桶；布伦特 8 月原油期货收 跌 1.84 美元/桶，跌幅 2.33%，报 77.01 美元/桶；SC2508 原油期货收跌 4.40 元/桶，跌幅 0.77%， 报 568.40 元/桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强， -2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 【趋势强度】 原油趋势强度：1 期货研究 国泰君安期货有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）具有中国证监会核准的期货投资咨询业务资格（证监许 可[2011]1449号）。 1. 摩根大通：在包括霍尔木兹海峡封锁在内的更大范围地区冲突极端情况下，油价可能飙升至每 桶 120 至 130 美元。 2. 市场消息：伊朗议会批准关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最高 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and soared rapidly in the second half due to the Iran - Israel conflict, with weekly gains of over 12% for the three major crude oil futures. In the current market, the export issues of Iranian crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz may be re - priced. With the arrival of the summer consumption peak season, the support for oil prices will strengthen. The recent US economic data has boosted the market's interest - rate cut expectation, alleviating the macro - economic pressure. The Iran - Israel conflict has increased market risk appetite, which may further boost oil prices. Therefore, there is still room for oil prices to rise, and it is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias and consider shorting the crack spread of refined oil products [13][20][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the latter half of the oil price was affected by the Iran - Israel conflict and soared rapidly, with the three major crude oil futures recording weekly gains of over 12%. In the absence of an obvious sign of easing in the geopolitical conflict this week, there may still be a small upward space for oil prices. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [535 - 565] yuan/barrel and consider cautious bottom - fishing for long positions. However, be aware of the rapid decline in oil prices when there is news of geopolitical easing [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and then quickly rose in the second half due to the Iran - Israel conflict, resulting in weekly gains of over 12% for the three major crude oil futures. Currently, the Iran - Israel conflict has not had a substantial impact on crude oil exports in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked or the war spreads to neighboring producing countries, oil prices will still have upward potential [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Macro - economy**: - US economic data is improving. The May CPI data was lower than expected, and the initial and continuing jobless claims increased, along with weak PPI data. This has increased the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September to over 80%, reducing the upward pressure on oil prices [25]. - The Iran - Israel conflict has escalated rapidly. Israel launched a large - scale military operation against Iran on June 13, and Iran retaliated. The nuclear negotiation between Iran and the US was cancelled. If the conflict spreads to the Strait of Hormuz, it may disrupt crude oil exports and open up upward space for oil prices [31]. - **Supply**: - According to the May monthly report, OPEC + production decreased by 106 thousand barrels per day from March to April. If the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, nearly 80% of crude oil transportation will be affected, with only Saudi Arabia and the UAE having some alternative transportation capabilities [34][35]. - There are still contradictions between Saudi Arabia and Russia in production. The US production remains stable [39][42]. - **Demand**: - Attention should be paid to changes in institutional expectations. The manufacturing industries in China and the US are contracting, but refined oil production has shown a slight recovery [45][48][54]. - **Inventory**: - US crude oil inventories are decreasing, mainly due to the recovery of consumption. US refineries' daily crude oil processing volume has reached a peak since July 2024, indicating a recovery in North American consumption [56]. - US refined oil inventories are increasing, which may narrow the crack spread [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely in the first half and soared after the Iran - Israel conflict. The market may re - price the export issues of Iranian crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz. With the summer consumption peak season and the boost of the interest - rate cut expectation, and the ongoing Iran - Israel conflict, there is still upward space for oil prices. It is recommended to operate cautiously with a bullish bias and consider shorting the crack spread of refined oil products [64].

西太平洋银行：周末之前风险非常高，原油价格很有可能突破1月份的高点 金十数据6月13日讯，西太平洋银行大宗商品和碳研究主管罗伯特•雷尼表示："鉴于以色列的袭击似乎 更多地是针对伊朗军事总参谋部，包括伊斯兰革命卫队的负责人和高级核科学家，而美国没有参与其 中，这表明我们今天看到的更多是先发制人的打击，而不是持续的军事冲突。""然而，交易员将非常关 注伊朗的反应，以及它是如何针对以色列的，而不是代理攻击。进入周末前的风险非常高，原油价格很 有可能突破1月份的高点。""然而，从更大的角度来看，我们仍然认为，随着我们进入第三季度，我们 将看到价格下探60至65美元区间的低端，而进入第四季度时，价格有可能跌破60美元。" ...