Group 1 - The main contract of Shanghai silver futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 10,287.00 yuan, with a current price of 10,278.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.42% [1] - Institutions predict that the precious metals market may enter a range-bound oscillation pattern, with the Shanghai silver main contract expected to operate within a range of 9,799 to 10,800 yuan per kilogram [2][3] - The market sentiment for precious metals is becoming cautious after previous highs, with future price movements dependent on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve officials' statements [2] Group 2 - The recent comments from Fed Governor Milan have significantly influenced market expectations regarding monetary policy, comparable to Powell's statements at the Jackson Hole meeting [3] - The strategy for precious metals suggests a focus on buying on dips, with the Shanghai silver main contract's reference range set between 9,799 and 10,800 yuan per kilogram [3]

今日周一（9月22日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3690美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报6990.66美 元/盎司，涨幅0.14%，最高上探3696.48美元/盎司，最低触及3682.79美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向看涨走势。 摘要今日周一（9月22日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3690美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 6990.66美元/盎司，涨幅0.14%，最高上探3696.48美元/盎司，最低触及3682.79美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向看涨走势。 在2020年年初，美国国会预算办公室曾作出预测：至2030财年之后，联邦政府债务规模方会突破37万亿 美元这一关口。然而现实的发展却远超预期——就在今年的8月，美国联邦政府债务总额已然跨越了37 万亿美元大关，其与GDP的比例高达约126.8%，较此前的预测时间提前了整整5年。如此迅猛且大规模 的债务扩张态势，持续牵动着各方的关注与忧虑。 聚焦盘面，从黄金一小时级别走势来看，其反弹上涨并成功突破3670美元关口后企稳，均线呈多头排列 态势，支撑位以台阶式逐步上移至3660点位。后续需重点关注上方3700区域的阻力情况。今日黄金日内 以做多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the new Fed governor Milan's dovish monetary - policy statement, the prices of precious metals, especially silver, were strongly affected by the expectation of loose monetary policy. The report suggests paying attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chairman and recommends a strategy of buying on dips for precious metals. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 823 - 850 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Shanghai gold rose 1.02% to 838.26 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.68% to 10204.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.53% to 3725.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.32% to 43.52 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 97.69 [2] - Milan, a new Fed governor, expressed a dovish stance, supporting a 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut this year, and believed that the Fed's long - term tightening would pose risks to the employment market [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - Milan's speech on Friday had a significant impact on the market's expectations of the Fed's monetary policy, with an influence comparable to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. His speech framework and dovish tendency deviated from the characteristics of existing Fed members. He also expressed his willingness to stay at the Fed under Trump's instruction [3] 3.3 Strategy Viewpoint - Pay attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chairman. After his statement, the prices of domestic and foreign silver showed strength due to the expectation of loose monetary policy, and the price of the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high. It is recommended to buy on dips for precious metals, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 823 - 850 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.4 Key Data of Gold and Silver - For gold, on September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 3719.40 dollars/ounce (up 1.12% from the previous day), the trading volume was 181,300 lots (down 17.04%), the position was 516,200 lots (up 1.29%), and the inventory was 1227 tons (up 0.47%). The closing price of LBMA gold was 3663.15 dollars/ounce (up 0.53%). The closing price of the active contract on SHFE was 830.56 yuan/gram (up 0.78%), the trading volume was 375,100 lots (down 22.77%), and the position was 448,900 lots (up 1.17%) [8] - For silver, on September 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 43.37 dollars/ounce (up 3.00%), the position was 163,000 lots (up 3.99%), and the inventory was 16300 tons (down 0.01%). The closing price of the active contract on SHFE was 9971.00 yuan/kilogram (up 1.38%), the trading volume was 1,023,900 lots (down 21.56%), and the position was 867,300 lots (up 4.17%) [8] 3.5 Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between the price of COMEX gold and the US dollar index, real interest rate, trading volume, position, etc., as well as the price and volume relationship of Shanghai gold, London gold, and the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai gold [10][11][13][14][18][19][24][25] - There are also charts showing the price and volume relationship of COMEX silver and Shanghai silver, the near - far month structure, and the relationship between the management fund's net long position and price [31][32][33][34][42][43][44] 3.6 ETF Holdings - The holding of SPDR gold ETF was 994.56 tons (up 1.94% from the previous day), and the holding of SLV silver ETF was 15205.14 tons (unchanged) [5] 3.7 Internal - External Price Difference Statistics - On September 19, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference of gold was - 16.12 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 44.24 dollars/ounce. The SHFE - COMEX price difference of silver was 0.42 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 0.37 dollars/ounce [53]

海外宽松货币政策将驱动 铂金价格表现强势 铂族金属周报 2025/09/20 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 钟俊轩（宏观金融组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及行情展望 04 供给和需求 02 市场回顾 05 月差及跨市场价差 03 库存及ETF持仓变动 01 周度评估及行情展望 周度评估及行情展望 | 铂族金属重点数据汇总 铂 金 | | 单位 CFTC报告区间为 | 2025-09-19 2025-09-16 | 2025-09-12 2025-09-09 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅度 | 月度涨跌幅度 | 进一年历史分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX铂金 | 收盘价(活跃合约) | 美元/盎司 | 1419.00 | 1402.70 | 上 涨 | 1.16% | 6.04% | 93.82% | | 成交量(五日均值) | | 手 | 31371.40 | 29652.00 | 上 涨 ...

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market reached a new historical high following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and signals of further cuts to come, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 1% and the S&P 500 increasing by about 0.5% [2][3] - Major technology stocks performed strongly, with Nvidia's investment of $5 billion in Intel leading to a nearly 30% surge in Intel's stock, marking its largest single-day gain in nearly 40 years [3][4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and indicated two more cuts are expected this year to support the job market, which has driven bullish sentiment in the stock market [4][5] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as "risk management," dampening some investors' expectations for a long-term easing cycle [5] Analyst Insights - Analysts expect that with the declining interest rates, investors will refocus on fundamentals, including regulatory easing, corporate earnings, and a recovering IPO market, which could benefit large tech and financial stocks [6] - In a low-interest-rate environment, large tech stocks typically outperform, while the financial sector may benefit from increased merger activity and mortgage business [6] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks faced a downturn, with the China concept stock index declining by approximately 2% [7]

美联储周三一如预期进行了9个月来的首次降息，幅度为25基点。在美联储最新利率决议公布后，华尔街大行中，高盛率先更新了其对美联储未来利 率路径的预测。 据CME"美联储观察"，目前美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为12.3%，降息25个基点的概率为87.7%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为 0.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为17.6%，累计降息50个基点的概率为81.6%。 29 10月25 == eshability 1 POB 2017 25 878 202 47.5% ra 99 在高盛看来， 只有通胀意外大幅上升，或者劳动力市场突然反弹，才会阻碍美联储进一步降息 。 如果不发生此类事件，美联储似乎将致力 于逐步放松货币政策，在控制通胀与支持经济之间取得平衡。 高盛强调，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的风险管理框架目前倾向于谨慎行事，多数成员释放出的信号显示，政策应继续朝着限制程度更 低的方向转变。该行表示， 这意味着到年底进一步降息将是基准情景 。 该行还预计，FOMC 2026年将进一步降息两次。 高盛的最新预测并未较该行此前的预测作出调整，且符合美联储自身的预测。 高盛在此前的研报中就预测，美联储今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, largely influenced by Trump's persistent criticism of Chairman Powell [1][4][8] Group 1: Trump's Influence on Federal Reserve - Trump believes that low interest rates, combined with his "Make America Great Again" agenda, are crucial for the country's success [4] - Trump's repeated criticisms of Powell have lessened as the prospect of a rate cut approaches, although he still refers to Powell as "Mr. Too Late" for not acting sooner [4][8] - Trump has initiated the process of selecting candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, aiming to ensure that the new appointee aligns more closely with his views [8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - Powell indicated a need for policy adjustments, citing a strong labor market and inflation still above the target, suggesting a rate cut is necessary [8][9] - The U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, prompting cautious monetary policy [9] - The anticipated rate cut could lead to increased inflation but may also reduce U.S. debt interest expenses, highlighting the dual nature of monetary policy [12] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of a potential rate cut, U.S. stock markets surged, with the Dow Jones index rising by 1.96% to reach a new high [12] - The anticipated rate cut is expected to attract foreign capital into Chinese markets, as evidenced by increased foreign investment in Chinese stocks since June 2025 [12][13] - The Chinese A-share market responded positively, with significant gains following the announcement of the potential rate cut [12][13]

格隆汇9月17日｜周三美元指数DXY微升，但仍徘徊于两个半月低点附近。投资者普遍预期美联储即将 降息，市场严阵以待。伦敦证券交易所集团数据显示，市场预计美联储今夜宣布降息25个基点的概率为 97%，降息50个基点的概率为3%。德国商业银行分析师Thu Lan Nguyen在研报中指出，更大幅度的降息 将对美元构成显著压力。她表示，在当前通胀攀升的背景下，若实施更激进降息，可能引发市场对"迫 于政治压力推行宽松货币政策"的担忧。 ...

作为衡量仓位和情绪的指标的一周风险逆转指标显示，自欧洲央行暗示已完成宽松政策以来，市场对欧元看涨期权的需求稳步上升。 来自存管信托和清算公司（DTCC）的数据也证实了这一点：在周一交易的欧元兑美元期权中，超过三分之二是看涨押注，市场对行权价高于1.20的期权有 着显著的兴趣。 据熟悉资金流动的、因未获公开发言授权而要求匿名的外汇交易员称，先前曾通过复杂结构寻求看涨敞口的对冲基金，正转向对上涨的简单押注，这是市场 信心日益增长的迹象。 随着交易员们为本周美联储的降息做准备，欧元正迈向四年来的最高水平，美联储的降息将巩固其与欧洲央行日益分化的政策轨迹。 周二，欧元兑美元汇率攀升至自7月3日以来的最高点，逼近1.18关口，这一货币对在2025年已上涨近14%，有望创下有记录以来最佳的九个月表现。 若欧元兑美元汇率突破7月份1.1829美元的高点，将标志着自2021年9月以来的最强水平，期权市场暗示，这可能为冲向备受关注的1.20关口奠定基础。 欧元的需求正受到市场预期的支撑，即在美联储被视为即将开启宽松周期之际，欧洲央行将不会进行进一步的降息。年底前美联储将进行三次25个基点降息 的前景，正增强着这一欧洲共同货币的 ...

Group 1 - Short-term futures traders engaged in profit-taking after recent gold price increases, leading to pressure on prices [1] - December gold futures rose by $17 to $3703.4 per ounce during trading [1] Group 2 - U.S. and Chinese trade officials held high-level talks in Madrid, focusing on trade issues and global economic conditions [3] - China announced an investigation into the U.S. semiconductor industry, citing NVIDIA for potential antitrust violations [3] - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+ due to rising public debt and political instability [3] - Fitch warned that France's fiscal consolidation policy space will be constrained as the 2027 presidential election approaches, predicting a fiscal deficit above 5% of GDP from 2026 to 2027 [3] Group 3 - Global financial markets are focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut [4] - This would mark the first easing of monetary policy since November 2024, in response to signs of economic weakness [4] - The latest economic outlook report is expected to show weakening growth momentum and rising unemployment [4] Group 4 - From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls have a strong advantage, with the next target above $3750 per ounce [6] - The first resistance level is at $3700 per ounce, followed by a weekly contract high of $3715.2 per ounce [6] - The first support level is at the overnight low of $3662.8 per ounce, then $3650 per ounce [6]