贵金属日报 2025-10-17 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 1.96 %，报 981.90 元/克，沪银涨 1.72 %，报 12208.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 1.33 %， 报 4362.30 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.30 %，报 53.46 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 3.99%，美元指数报 98.29 ； 当前海外白银现货紧缺情况有所缓解，截至昨日，伦敦白银现货一月期隐含租赁利率回落至 25.9%，但依旧处于区间高位。而伦敦银及纽约银的价差则回升至 0.88 美元/盎司。同时，COMEX 白银库存持续下降，当前为 15930 吨。这显示白银现货持续从纽约流向伦敦，且并未彻底缓解 伦敦银现货的紧张情况，对其价格形成支撑。 货币政策方面，联储票委表态之间已出现明显冲突，前期表态鸽派的理事沃勒当前货币政策表 态谨慎，且对于美联储当前公布的经济展望报告呈怀疑态度。但特朗普提名的新任理事米兰则 认为美联储需要基于预测进行决定。CME 利率观测器显示，当前市场已经完全定价联储年内进 行两次降息操作，宽松货币政策预期持续支撑金银价格。 【策略观点】 贵金属价格当前已进入趋势 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.382 | 102.282 | 105.730 | 105.635 | 108.130 | 107.815 | 114.58 | 114.24 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.384 | 102.292 | 105.775 | 105.665 | 108.170 | 107.865 | 114.76 | 114.41 | | | 涨跌 | -0.002 | -0.010 | -0.045 | -0.030 | -0.040 | -0.050 | -0.180 | ...

转自：期货日报 地缘局势方面，中东局势出现缓和信号。10月13日，特朗普和20多国领导人出席沙姆沙伊赫和平峰会， 埃及、美国、土耳其和卡塔尔领导人签署一份文件，为停火协议提供担保。以色列、哈马斯也正在就加 沙计划的第二阶段进行谈判。然而加沙地区的深层次矛盾仍未解决，考虑到俄乌冲突持续、巴基斯坦与 阿富汗边境地区发生交火等其他事件，全球地缘风险仍处于高位。 对贵金属构成支撑的另一核心支柱，来自市场对美联储加速转向宽松的强烈预期。美联储主席鲍威尔10 月14日讲话释放"鸽派"信号，暗示可能在未来几个月停止收缩资产负债表，承认就业下行风险可能已经 上升，保留10月降息的可能性。美联储在10月8日公布9月议息纪要，纪要显示大多数官员认为在今年剩 余时间内进一步放松政策可能是合适的，不过也应关注通胀前景上行的风险。少数官员对降息持保留态 度，新任美联储理事米兰作为激进派代表则主张9月大幅降息50BP。海外市场预计，本年度美联储大概 率在10月、12月各降息1次。目前，据CME"美联储观察"的预测，美联储10月降息25BP的概率为 95.67%，直至12月累计降息50BP的概率为94.64%。这反映了海外市场对美联储将采 ...

即便市场真的出现较大规模的回调，由于美国政府停摆事件的影响，10月份的经济数据与就业数据势必 恶化，这将加剧市场对经济的担忧情绪，进而提升降息预期。值得注意的是，当前仍有多位美联储官员 倾向于降低降息幅度。此外，考虑到明年2026年5月鲍威尔任期届满，预计特朗普政府极有可能提名一 位更为鸽派的人士担任美联储主席一职，在此情形下，美联储可能会重新加快降息步伐。展望未来一 年，美联储走向宽松货币政策已是大势所趋，而宽松交易也将成为全球市场的主旋律。 黄金行情走势分析： 昨日午间在短短1小时内，金价先是下探至4090美元，随后便展开强劲上攻态势，剑指4200美元关口。 此番上涨行情极为迅猛，其间仅出现小幅回调，且调整幅度有限。当下，传统的黄金技术指标似乎已失 去效用，当前所形成的价格形态在历史数据中难觅踪迹，市场走势更多地受到市场共识与投资者情绪的 驱动。今晚黄金上方需重点关注4250-4260美元阻力区域。整体趋势依然看涨，交易重心应聚焦于多空 分界点的争夺情况。 来源：通鉴大师 原油操作建议 1、上方短期关注60.0-61.0一线阻力 从技术层面来看，今日黄金整体走了一个单边多头行情，完全无头绪的多头格局，那么 ...

从供应端看，乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击没有中断，但是俄罗斯原油出口不降反增；同时欧佩克+计划在10-11月增产13.7万 桶/日，维持温和增产态势。美国、加拿大以及巴西等非欧佩克产油国均有增产的集中释放，供应端的压力明显增大。 需求端看，美国的需求旺季结束，欧美进入炼油厂检修季节，同时近期全球最大的两个经济体贸易关系恶化，全球经济前景更 是蒙上阴影，这将不利于原油需求的改善。 黄金方面： 避险情绪明显升温将为金价提供支撑。一方面是美国特朗普政府仍然处于停摆当中，众多的经济数据延迟公布；另一方面，美 国总统特朗普宣布将在11月份对东大商品加征100%关税，并且实施关键软件出口管制，推动避险情绪升温。 另外美联储内部虽然对于降息存在分歧，但是分歧主要集中在降息的幅度以及时间节点，市场对美联储延续宽松的预期比较乐 观。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前在美联储延续宽松货币政策比较清晰，叠加避险情绪升温的情况下，金价维持 强势将是大概率事件。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情走高且收阳线，显示短期行情较强势。4小时线上看，行情回调测试62日均线获得支撑之后 再度走高，后续维持强势机会较大。日内关注下方410 ...

高盛分析师上周也表示，市场目前尚未陷入泡沫，理由是"那些涨幅领先的头部企业，普遍拥有异常强 劲的资产负债表"。 与此同时，瑞银分析师预计，2025年全球人工智能领域的资本支出将同比增长67%。瑞银策略团队在周 四的报告中写道："在我们看来，本轮股市反弹仍有三大支撑：扎实的企业基本面、AI应用加速渗透， 以及整体仍利好的宏观环境。投资者应考虑在市场任何回调时逐步加仓。" 智通财经APP获悉，上周五，美国总统特朗普声称将发起巨额关税，美股出现抛售，与此同时银行业即 将开启财报季，当前股市仍徘徊在历史高位附近。对于这一年由人工智能(AI)驱动的出色行情，华尔街 正期待其后续动能能够延续。 自4月低点以来，标准普尔500指数已累计上涨逾30%，点数涨幅约1800点;同期纳斯达克综合指数涨幅 更是达到50%左右——这波为期六个月的反弹行情表现惊艳。 根据FactSet的数据，华尔街预计标准普尔500指数成分股公司第三季度盈利将同比增长8%，若实现这一 目标，将标志着企业盈利连续第九个季度实现增长。 本财报季，科技行业公司上调盈利预期的比例高于其他任何行业，其中软件与半导体企业贡献了大部分 积极展望。 近期，ChatGP ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of precious metals, particularly gold, is significantly influenced by the interplay of monetary policy, risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions, especially during escalations in the US-China trade conflict [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context of Precious Metals Performance - Since 2018, several escalations in the US-China trade conflict have led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices rising in response to heightened market volatility and geopolitical risks [3]. - Historical data indicates that when global monetary policy becomes more accommodative, particularly with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it tends to depress the dollar and real interest rates, providing a foundation for rising gold prices [2][4]. - The combination of trade tensions and existing geopolitical risks can significantly enhance the attractiveness of gold, leading to increased capital inflows into the precious metals market [2][4]. Group 2: Current Market Analysis - Current market conditions show a notable increase in risk and uncertainty, with threats of significant tariffs on Chinese goods and ongoing government shutdowns in the US exacerbating trade tensions and economic concerns [5]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December, along with a trend towards more accommodative monetary policy, are likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the short term [6]. - Silver may face weaker performance compared to gold due to potential suppression of industrial demand amid market uncertainties, despite previous significant price increases and existing tightness in the physical silver market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decision by Japan's Komeito party to exit the ruling coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) introduces significant uncertainty into Japan's political and legislative agenda, despite the likelihood of Sanae Takaichi becoming the next Prime Minister [1][6]. Political Developments - Komeito has confirmed its withdrawal from the ruling coalition but will continue to cooperate with the LDP on certain issues [3][4]. - The breakdown of negotiations between Komeito and the LDP was primarily due to disagreements over the regulation of political donations from corporations and groups [4]. - Komeito's leader, Tetsuo Saito, indicated that without a joint governance agreement, Komeito would not support Takaichi in the upcoming Prime Minister election [4][6]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the USD/JPY exchange rate fell sharply, dropping nearly 0.5%, while the Nikkei 225 futures experienced a significant decline, falling over 1200 points and ultimately closing down 2.42% [1][4]. - The broader Japanese stock market also saw declines, with the TOPIX index dropping by 1.85% and the Nikkei 225 index down by 1.01% [4]. Implications for Governance - The dissolution of the coalition is expected to weaken Takaichi's legitimacy and authority as Prime Minister, despite the LDP remaining the largest party in both houses of the Diet [6][7]. - The LDP and Komeito coalition, which has been a cornerstone of political stability for nearly 25 years, is now considered defunct, marking the end of a long period of stability [6][7]. - The LDP currently holds 196 seats in the House of Representatives and 100 seats in the House of Councillors, while Komeito holds 24 and 21 seats, respectively [7]. Future Legislative Challenges - The loss of Komeito's support will complicate Takaichi's ability to push through budget proposals and legislation in the Diet, leading to potential legislative gridlock [7]. - Analysts suggest that the weakened position of the LDP could result in increased chaos within the Diet, as the party struggles to maintain control over its political agenda [7]. Economic Policy Outlook - Takaichi's economic policies are expected to lean towards maintaining loose monetary policy and advocating for active fiscal measures, which may exert downward pressure on the yen [8]. - The anticipated fiscal expansion under Takaichi's leadership could support economic growth but may also exacerbate Japan's current inflation challenges [8].

Group 1: Core Insights - International gold prices have recently reached a historic high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, reflecting a significant increase of approximately 50% year-to-date, making gold one of the best-performing major assets globally [1][3] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to heightened global risk aversion and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar, driven by factors such as US government shutdowns and geopolitical tensions [3][4] - Analysts suggest that investors should allocate about 15% of their assets to gold, as it is viewed as a superior asset during downturns in other investment areas [1][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900, citing strong demand from central banks and private sector diversification [2] - The World Gold Council reported that central banks resumed large-scale gold purchases in August, adding 15 tons to their reserves, while gold ETF holdings increased by 3.6 million ounces, marking a 17% rise year-to-date [3][4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the US Federal Reserve's potential for further interest rate cuts are expected to support continued strength in gold prices [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - There are mixed views on the sustainability of the current gold price rally, with some analysts warning of potential short-term corrections, predicting fluctuations between $3,800 and $4,100 per ounce for the remainder of the year [4] - Long-term forecasts remain bullish, with UBS projecting gold prices could reach $4,200, and Citigroup suggesting a challenge to the $5,000 mark if the Fed continues to cut rates in 2026 [5] - The restructuring of the dollar credit system and high US debt levels are seen as factors that could bolster gold's value in the long run [5]

据新华社报道，日本前经济安全保障担当大臣高市早苗在10月4日举行的日本自民党总裁选举中胜出， 由此成为自民党首位女总裁。 高市早苗有望成为日本第一位女首相，但是她所面临的挑战并不小。对内，首当其冲的是日本经济，高 通胀、薪金停滞，以及疲弱的增长，居高不下的政府债务，产业发展迟缓（如AI）的掣肘等；对外部 而言，则是如何处理国际合作关系以及世界正观察着其是否会以右翼立场来处理国际关系。同时，如何 重新联结自民党，并如何同在野党结盟等问题，均需破题。 在10月4日召开的记者会上，日本自民党新任总裁高市早苗提出了积极财政政策方向，以及尽早降低汽 油税，与央行开展紧密对话。此外，高市还提出将支援亏损企业为员工加薪，探讨增加地方政府用于应 对物价上涨的补贴资金。 特约评论员 熊夏柠 高市早苗也提出会支持企业涨薪，主要做法是减免企业的税，拟为那些因亏损的中小企业提供相关税收 减免，通过"加薪促进税制"减免加薪企业法人税以鼓励企业加薪。不过，也有评论认为，一些企业可能 经营不善而亏损严重，即使有减免，也杯水车薪。 再来看看市场关心的政府债务，日本政府债务余额与GDP之比已经高达240%。而高市早苗的积极财政 主张仍然提出增 ...