Core Insights - In the first eleven months, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 66,268.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [1] Industry Performance Summary - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry saw a profit increase of 15.0% year-on-year [1] - The electricity and heat production and supply industry experienced a profit growth of 11.8% [1] - The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry reported a profit increase of 11.1% [1] - The automotive manufacturing industry achieved a profit growth of 7.5% [1] - The agricultural and sideline food processing industry recorded a profit increase of 4.8% [1] - The general equipment manufacturing industry also saw a profit growth of 4.8% [1] - The specialized equipment manufacturing industry reported a profit increase of 4.6% [1] - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry experienced a profit growth of 4.2% [1] - The petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries reduced losses year-on-year [1] - The non-metallic mineral products industry declined by 4.6% [1] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry saw a decline of 6.9% [1] - The textile industry reported a decline of 8.2% [1] - The oil and gas extraction industry experienced a decline of 13.6% [1] - The coal mining and washing industry faced a significant decline of 47.3% [1] Black Metal Industry Performance - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry achieved a total profit of 111.5 billion yuan, marking a remarkable year-on-year growth of 1,752.2% [2]

Core Insights - The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 66,268.6 billion yuan from January to November, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [1] - The profit performance varied across different types of enterprises, with state-owned enterprises experiencing a decline of 1.6%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw a growth of 2.4% [1] Group 1: Profit Performance by Sector - The mining industry reported a profit of 7,896.3 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [2] - The manufacturing sector achieved a profit of 50,317.9 billion yuan, marking a growth of 5.0% [2] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry recorded a profit of 8,054.4 billion yuan, increasing by 8.4% [2] Group 2: Major Industry Profit Trends - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry saw a profit increase of 15.0% [2] - The automotive manufacturing industry experienced a profit growth of 7.5% [2] - The textile industry faced a decline in profits by 8.2% [2] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The total operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was 125.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [2] - The operating cost reached 107.17 trillion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year [2] - The operating profit margin was 5.29%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Group 4: Balance Sheet Overview - As of the end of November, total assets of industrial enterprises amounted to 189.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [2] - Total liabilities reached 109.96 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.0% [2] - The asset-liability ratio stood at 58.1%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 5: Efficiency Metrics - The cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 85.50 yuan, an increase of 0.18 yuan year-on-year [3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable was 70.4 days, an increase of 3.7 days year-on-year [3] - The turnover days for finished goods inventory were 20.5 days, up 0.6 days year-on-year [3] Group 6: Monthly Performance - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size declined by 13.1% year-on-year [4]

国家统计局数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同比增长0.1%。 1—11月份，规模以上工业企业每百元营业收入中的成本为85.50元，同比增加0.18元；每百元营业收入中的费用为8.39元，同比减少0.06元。 12月27日，国家统计局官网发布的最新数据显示，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同比增长0.1%。 1—11月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额20083.6亿元，同比下降1.6%；股份制企业实现利润总额49565.6亿元，下降0.4%；外商及港 澳台投资企业实现利润总额16355.3亿元，增长2.4%；私营企业实现利润总额19319.9亿元，下降0.1%。 1—11月份，采矿业实现利润总额7896.3亿元，同比下降27.2%；制造业实现利润总额50317.9亿元，增长5.0%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利 润总额8054.4亿元，增长8.4%。 1—11月份，主要行业利润情况如下：计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业利润同比增长15.0%，电力、热力生产和供应业增长11.8%，有色金属冶炼和压延 加工业增长 ...

Core Insights - In the first eleven months, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 66,268.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] - The profit performance varied among different types of enterprises, with state-owned enterprises experiencing a decline of 1.6%, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises saw a growth of 2.4% [1] Group 1: Profit Performance - In the mining sector, profits totaled 7,896.3 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [1] - The manufacturing sector achieved profits of 50,317.9 billion yuan, marking a growth of 5.0% [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector reported profits of 8,054.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4% [1] Group 2: Industry-Specific Profit Trends - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry saw a profit increase of 15.0% [2] - The power and heat production and supply industry grew by 11.8% [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a profit growth of 7.5% [2] - The textile industry faced a decline of 8.2% [2] - The coal mining and washing industry reported a significant decline of 47.3% [2] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The total operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 125.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [2] - Operating costs amounted to 107.17 trillion yuan, up 1.8% [2] - The operating profit margin was 5.29%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points year-on-year [2] - As of the end of November, total assets were 189.28 trillion yuan, a growth of 4.8% [2] - The total liabilities reached 109.96 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.0% [2] Group 4: Efficiency Metrics - The cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 85.50 yuan, an increase of 0.18 yuan year-on-year [3] - The average collection period for accounts receivable was 70.4 days, an increase of 3.7 days year-on-year [3] - The turnover days for finished goods inventory were 20.5 days, an increase of 0.6 days year-on-year [3] Group 5: Monthly Performance - In November, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year-on-year [4]

1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同比增长0.1%(按可比口径计算，详见 附注二)。 1—11月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额20083.6亿元，同比下降1.6%；股份制企 业实现利润总额49565.6亿元，下降0.4%；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利润总额16355.3亿元，增长 2.4%；私营企业实现利润总额19319.9亿元，下降0.1%。 1—11月份，采矿业实现利润总额7896.3亿元，同比下降27.2%；制造业实现利润总额50317.9亿元，增 长5.0%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额8054.4亿元，增长8.4%。 1—11月份，主要行业利润情况如下：计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业利润同比增长15.0%，电 力、热力生产和供应业增长11.8%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长11.1%，汽车制造业增长7.5%，农 副食品加工业增长4.8%，通用设备制造业增长4.8%，专用设备制造业增长4.6%，电气机械和器材制造 业增长4.2%，石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业同比减亏，非金属矿物制品业下降4.6%，化学原料和化学 制品制造业下降6.9%，纺 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注下任美联储主席人选动态 【市场资讯】1）特朗普称明年初将宣布美联储主席人选，暗示哈塞特。新美联储通讯社： 哈塞特当选美联储主席已"内部确定"。2）美国假日购物季"开门红"！美国零售联合会：感 恩节假日购物人数飙至超 2 亿人次。3）欧元区 11 月 CPI 回升至 2.2%，服务业价格顽固， 欧央行 12 月降息"几无可能"。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，10 月份受上年同期基数抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规 模以上工业企业利润同比下降 5.5%。当前工业企业利润增速受"量价双弱"格局拖累，边际 回落特征显著，营收利润率偏弱的态势未得到明显改善。展望短期，预计年内规模以上工 业企业利润增速将持续面临较大压力，大概率维持弱势震荡格局。中长期来看，随着宏观 托底政策逐步落地见效，叠加"反内卷"相关政策推动行业竞争格局优化，企业经营环境将 逐步改善，2025 年工业企业盈利有望进入逐步修复通道。中国 11 月官方制造业 PMI 环比 回升至 49.2，整体呈现边际改善趋势，但弱于季节性表现。海外方面，11 月以来，美元指 数两度站上 100 点。回顾两轮突破 100 点的过程，我们认为其强势 ...

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The State Council discussed the draft amendment to the Certified Public Accountants Law, emphasizing the need for stronger legal constraints and industry supervision to promote the healthy development of the CPA industry and protect investor rights [6][7]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) stated that stablecoins are a form of virtual currency, which do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies and pose risks related to money laundering and illegal financial activities [11][12]. - A new regulation was released by PBOC and other financial authorities, allowing banks to conduct customer due diligence based on risk rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, enhancing customer experience while maintaining financial security [12][13]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - From January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 1.9% year-on-year, totaling 59,502.9 billion yuan, marking a continuous growth for three months since August [14]. - In October, the profits of these enterprises saw a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, attributed to a high base from the previous year and rising financial costs [14]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Insights - The Governor of the Bank of Japan indicated a potential interest rate hike in December, citing moderate economic recovery and the importance of wage negotiations, while emphasizing that any rate increase would still maintain a loose monetary environment [8][9]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to make a decision on interest rates based on a comprehensive review of domestic and international economic conditions [9]. Group 4: Technological Financial Initiatives - The first meeting of the Technology Finance Coordination Mechanism was held to support high-level technological self-reliance, focusing on differentiated financial support for technology innovation and fostering a favorable environment for technology finance development [10][11]. - The meeting aims to enhance collaboration across departments and promote effective allocation of financial resources to support technological advancements [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Q4 economic downward pressure may rise. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in November, but corporate profits may continue to be under pressure. The traditional investment - driven economic model may be unsustainable. Consumption and exports may face pressure. Policy rate cuts and incremental tools in the next six months may be key support measures [2][75]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury to 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bonds to 1.9% (all referring to bonds without VAT) [4][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2pct. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6pct. The comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3pct from the previous month, indicating increased economic growth pressure [4][12]. - In October, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the revenue decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. From January to October, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 5.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [4][21]. - On November 25, the central bank conducted a 1000 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan in November, the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - over [4][22]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of November 23, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars decreased by 6.6% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume increased by 2.2% year - on - year. As of November 27, the 7 - day total national movie box office increased by 70.9% year - on - year. As of November 21, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 25.0% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 48.2% year - on - year [23][27]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of November 23, the container throughput of ports increased by 12.8% year - on - year. As of November 28, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.2% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 7.0% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 2.3% year - on - year [31][32]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 26, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 76.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8pct. As of November 27, the average asphalt operating rate was 20.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0pct. The soda ash operating rate was 81.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0pct, and the PVC operating rate was 78.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4pct [40][42]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of November 28, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 33.2% year - on - year. As of November 21, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [45]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of November 28, the average pork wholesale price decreased by 23.7% year - on - year, the vegetable wholesale price increased by 15.9% year - on - year, and the average price of 6 key fruits increased by 2.0% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the average WTI crude oil spot price decreased by 15.7% year - on - year [46]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 28, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.40%/1.62%/1.84%/2.19% respectively, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.2BP/+2.8BP/+2.6BP/+2.8BP respectively. The yields of other bonds also had corresponding changes [59]. - On November 28, the U.S. dollar - to - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate were 7.08/7.08, down 86/309 pips from November 21 [69]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 5.0 years, and the median was about 4.2 years, compared with November 21, they changed by + 0.11/ - 0.20 years respectively [71]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 2.0 years, and the median was about 2.1 years, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.04/+0.05 years respectively [72]. 3.5 Investment Advice - The report is bullish on the bond market, believing that the current bond market has prominent allocation value. Due to domestic economic data pressure, high short - term interest rates, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the policy rate may be cut by 20BP in the next six months [4][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas, the US economy still shows resilience, with the GDPNow model predicting a 3.9% annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q3, driven by personal consumption and net exports. Consumption momentum is slowing, and attention should be paid to the released CPI and non - farm payroll data. Driven by rising interest - rate cut expectations and Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, overseas risk assets generally recovered last week [2]. - Domestically, the November PMI and October industrial enterprise profits further confirm the weakening of the economic fundamentals in Q4. The manufacturing PMI is 49.2, remaining in the contraction range for eight consecutive months. The construction and service industries are also in the contraction range. October industrial enterprise profits declined, with manufacturing and public utilities being the main drags. A - shares had a weak rebound with shrinking volume last week, and short - term shocks are expected to be weak [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Macro - **US Retail in September**: US retail sales were weaker than expected in September. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month (expected 0.4%, previous 0.6%), and core retail sales increased 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Durable goods consumption was divided, and non - durable goods still showed some resilience but with obvious structural differences [4][5]. 2. Domestic Macro - **October Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, industrial enterprise revenues were 113.37 trillion yuan, with a 1.8% year - on - year increase. Total profits were 5950.29 billion yuan, a 1.9% year - on - year increase, significantly lower than September's 3.2%. The single - month profit growth rate in October dropped to - 5.5%. Upstream mining profits decreased less, while mid - and downstream profits cooled significantly. Enterprises were accumulating inventory, and profit margins were the main drag on profits [9][10]. - **November Manufacturing PMI**: The November manufacturing PMI was 49.2, still in the contraction range. Supply and demand improved synchronously, with external demand improving significantly. Prices rose, and finished - product inventory decreased. The service industry's prosperity declined, and the construction industry was still struggling [12][13]. 3. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas equities showed different trends last week. For example, the Wande All - A Index rose 2.90%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.40%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 4.91% [23]. - **Bonds**: Yields of domestic and overseas bonds changed last week. For example, the 1 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.42 basis points, and the 2 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 4.00 basis points [26]. - **Commodities**: Commodity prices generally rose last week. For example, the South China Commodity Index rose 1.99%, COMEX gold rose 4.34%, and COMEX silver rose 14.37% [27]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index declined, and exchange rates of major currencies against the RMB changed. For example, the US dollar against the RMB decreased by 0.43% [30]. 4. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Domestic**: The report provides charts of high - frequency data such as the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, and commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities [32]. - **Overseas**: The report provides charts of high - frequency data such as Redbook commercial retail sales and unemployment insurance claims in the US [37]. 5. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include China's November RatingDog manufacturing PMI, euro - zone November CPI, and US November ISM manufacturing PMI [46].

Report Information - Report Title: Huaxian Futures Macroeconomic Monthly Report - The Downward Trend of the Real Estate Sector Accelerates, Pay Attention to Policy Stimulus at the End of the Year [1] - Author: Shi Shuyu - Date: 2025-11-30 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January to October 2025, the profits and revenues of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down, and the profit in October decreased year-on-year. Different industries showed varying degrees of profit changes [8]. - In October 2025, the CPI rose slightly, and is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased [8]. - In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached a new monthly high, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of various industries [10]. - In October 2025, the fiscal revenue increased year-on-year, while the fiscal expenditure decreased year-on-year, with significant declines in some expenditure items [10]. - In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline [10]. - From January to October 2025, the decline in fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) expanded, and the decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (previous value 3.2%); the operating revenue was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (previous value 2.4%). In October, the profit decreased by 5.5% year-on-year[8]. - **CPI**: In October 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, non - food prices increased by 0.9%, consumer prices decreased by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.8%. From January to October, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year[8]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electricity consumption was 8624.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%[10]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative general fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the general fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. From January to October, the cumulative general fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the general fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.78%[10]. - **Real Estate Market**: In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline[10]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40891.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened[13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - The report presents the quarterly year - on - year growth rates of GDP and its various components from 2023 to 2025, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, and services[16]. - It also shows the contribution rates of various industries to GDP and the pulling effects on GDP growth[21]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Growth**: The growth rate of industrial added value of industries above designated size showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, such as coal mining and non - metallic mineral products industries showing varying performances[32]. - **Industrial Output**: The report provides the production data of major industrial products from 2024 to 2025, such as crude oil, coal, and steel[34]. - **Industry Electricity Consumption**: The electricity consumption of different industries showed different growth trends. Some industries, such as the textile and clothing industry, had relatively high growth rates in electricity consumption[43]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline[46]. - **Industrial Enterprise Inventory**: As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8%. The inventory situation of different industries also varied[58]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Different CPI components showed different price changes, such as food prices decreasing and non - food prices increasing[64]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the national PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed compared with the previous month. The prices of production materials and living materials also showed different changes[71].