Macroeconomic Indicators - China's Q3 GDP annual rate is 48%, previously 52% [1] - September's industrial added value above designated size increased by 65% year-on-year, expected 50% [2] - September's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 30% year-on-year, expected 30% [2] - September's surveyed urban unemployment rate is 52%, expected 53% [2] - Fixed asset investment in urban areas from January to September increased by -05% year-on-year, expected 01% [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Lead prices are likely to fluctuate mainly. The price volatility of lead is narrowing, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for options contracts [5][40] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2511 of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated between around 17,035 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the price of LME lead futures contracts fluctuated between 1,984 - 2,017 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year in real terms and 0.37% month-on-month. From January to August, it increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Among 41 major industries, 31 had year-on-year growth in added value in August [16] 3. Spot Analysis - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,025 yuan/ton, 16,970 yuan/ton, and 17,040 yuan/ton respectively. The premium/discount of 1 lead was around - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19] 4. Supply and Demand - In July 2025, global lead mine production was 379.9 thousand tons, a decrease of 12 thousand tons from the previous month, at a relatively low level in the past 5 years. As of September 19, 2025, the average processing fees in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 700 yuan/metal ton, 500 yuan/metal ton, and 500 yuan/metal ton respectively, and the average processing fee in Kunming was 280 yuan/metal ton. As of August 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead production was 66.7 million tons, an increase of 3.8 million tons from the previous month and 3.7% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the past 5 years [25] 5. Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 124,626 tons, a decrease of 3,108 tons from the previous week. As of September 25, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 219,550 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 10.14% [34] 6. Fundamental Analysis - Fed new governor Milan advocates more aggressive interest rate cuts, aiming to lower rates by 150 - 200 basis points. Global lead mine production decreased slightly, lead processing fees continued to decline, lead production in August increased month - on - month and was at a high level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline and was at a moderate level, while LME lead inventory continued to decline but remained at a high level in recent years [39] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to fluctuate mainly. The price volatility of lead is narrowing, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to wait and see for options contracts [40]

Core Viewpoint - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in August showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 1.5% [4][19]. Group 1: Profit Improvement in Two Types of Industries - The profit improvement is evident in two categories of industries: one benefiting from price recovery and revenue improvement, leading to enhanced gross margins, and the other benefiting from increased investment income, resulting in improved profit margins [4][10]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, the average PPI year-on-year for eight industries was -4.4%, a narrowing from -5.7% previously, with revenue growth of 2.29% in August compared to -1.65% previously [5][11]. - The downstream manufacturing sector saw a profit growth rate of 36.3% in August, up from -5.2% previously, with a profit margin of 7.93%, significantly improved from 5.68% year-on-year [6][12]. Group 2: August Industrial Enterprise Profit Data Review (1) Overall Situation: Profit Growth Recovery - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 20.4% year-on-year, with inventory growth at 2.3% compared to 2.4% previously [2][19]. - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.83%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year, with costs per hundred yuan of revenue decreasing by 0.20 yuan, marking the first year-on-year decrease since July 2024 [20][19]. (2) Industry Situation: Profit Growth Across Sectors - The mining industry experienced a profit growth rate of -23%, an improvement from -39.24% previously, while the manufacturing sector saw a growth rate of 26.3%, up from 6.63% [22]. - The upstream manufacturing sector's profit growth was 16.08%, while the midstream and downstream sectors reported growth rates of 6.75% and 36.3%, respectively [22].

人民财讯9月22日电，据成都发布，2025年1—8月成都经济运行数据出炉。1—8月，全市规模以上工业 增加值同比增长7.8%，其中民营企业增长11.1%。全市固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长3.3%，其中民 间投资增长6.6%。全市社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.2%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

Economic Overview - Guizhou's industrial added value increased by 8.0% year-on-year from January to August, with industrial investment growing by 12.6% [1][2] Industry Performance - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in added value, growing by 67.0% year-on-year [1] - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry grew by 66.3% [1] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing sector increased by 36.7% [1] - The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry grew by 32.0% [1] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector increased by 13.7% [1] - Coal mining and washing industry grew by 12.2% [1] - Tobacco products industry increased by 5.5% [1] - Power and heat production and supply industry grew by 5.4% [1] - The production of wine, beverages, and refined tea increased by 1.7% [1] Product Output - Automotive production in Guizhou increased by 176.8% year-on-year [1] - Electronic components production grew by 15.3% [1] - Aluminum production increased by 15.7% [1] - Phosphate fertilizer production grew by 4.8% [1] - Power generation increased by 4.4% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Guizhou increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with industrial investment growing by 12.6% [2] - Investment in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry grew by 35.9% [2] - Investment in information transmission, software, and information technology services increased by 23.5% [2] - Education sector investment grew by 10.6% [2] - Investment in health and social work increased by 10.2% [2] - Real estate development investment grew by 1.7% [2] - Private investment increased by 5.5% [2] - High-tech industry investment grew by 17.0% [2] Economic Type Performance - State-owned enterprises' added value increased by 6.0% year-on-year [1] - Shareholding enterprises grew by 8.6% [1] - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investment enterprises increased by 3.6% [1] - Private enterprises saw an increase of 11.4% [1]

Core Insights - Yunnan's equipment manufacturing industry saw a year-on-year increase of 15.4% in value added from January to August, accelerating by 2 percentage points compared to the previous period, contributing 27.1% to the growth of industrial value added above designated size [1][2] - The overall industrial value added in Yunnan increased by 4% year-on-year during the same period, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors showing growth rates of 9.5%, 4.4%, and 1% respectively [1][2] - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 12.5%, contributing 23.6% to the overall industrial growth, with aerospace and communication equipment manufacturing increasing by 51.9% and 29.6% respectively [1][2] Industry Performance - The coal industry reported a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, while the oil industry remained stable at 6.4% growth [2] - The non-ferrous metal industry continued its rapid growth with a 15.4% increase, leading in contribution to industrial growth at 34.9% [2] - The production of green industrial products saw significant increases, with new energy vehicles and solar batteries rising by 83% and 64.9% respectively [2] Economic Indicators - Yunnan's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 838.08 billion yuan, marking a 4% year-on-year growth [2] - Fixed asset investment in Yunnan grew by 0.3%, with the first industry increasing by 2.5%, the second by 1.3%, and the third declining by 0.5% [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, remaining stable month-on-month [2][3] Policy and Outlook - The Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics indicated that macroeconomic policies are effectively supporting stable economic performance, but challenges such as weak expectations and insufficient effective demand remain [3] - Future efforts will focus on ensuring the implementation of policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations to promote healthy economic development [3]

Economic Growth - Sichuan's industrial added value increased by 7.2% year-on-year from January to August [1] - Among 41 major industries, 35 reported year-on-year growth in added value [1] Industry Performance - The automotive manufacturing industry saw a year-on-year increase of 19.1% in added value [1] - Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing grew by 15.2% year-on-year [1] - Computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased by 14.3% [1] - Chemical raw materials and products manufacturing rose by 13.2% [1] - Black metal smelting and rolling industry grew by 11.6% [1] Industrial Product Output - Natural gas production increased by 12.1% year-on-year [1] - Smart watch production surged by 87.4% [1] - Lithium-ion battery output grew by 54.1% [1] - Industrial robot production rose by 51.8% [1] - Generator set output increased by 41.6% [1] - Automobile production grew by 35.5% [1] - Industrial boiler output increased by 26.7% [1] - LCD screen production rose by 24.8% [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.9% year-on-year [1] - Primary industry investment grew by 12.4% [1] - Secondary industry investment increased by 7.9%, with industrial investment rising by 8.0% [1] Consumer Market - Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,876.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [2] - Catering revenue was 257.02 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% year-on-year [2] - Retail sales of goods amounted to 1,619.12 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [2]

Group 1 - The report indicates that in August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 4.64%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared to July 2025, with the restaurant sector showing a growth rate of 3.60%, down 0.20 percentage points [1][2][18] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in August 2025 was 6.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from July, with traditional industries related to real estate, such as glass, cement, and crude steel, experiencing accelerated contraction [2][3][6] - Fixed asset investment in August 2025 showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 0.5%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from July, with real estate investment down 12.9% year-on-year [2][6][12] Group 2 - Inflation remains weak, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August 2025 showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4 percentage points to -0.4%, primarily due to the drag from food prices, while core CPI increased to 0.9% [2][3][31] - The report highlights that the bond market is under pressure, with the current environment suggesting a phase of risk acceleration, and that the market may not have a favorable opportunity for long positions at this time [2][14][27] - The report notes that the real estate sector requires incremental policy support to stabilize, as recent trends show a downward adjustment in housing prices in first-tier cities [2][6][12]

Core Viewpoint - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.2% year-on-year, indicating a steady growth trend in the industrial sector [1][5]. Group 1: Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for January to August showed a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [1][5]. - The mining industry saw a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, while manufacturing grew by 5.7%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 2.4% in August [3][5]. - High-tech manufacturing experienced a notable growth of 9.3% in August [5]. Group 2: Economic Types - State-owned enterprises reported a year-on-year growth of 4.7% in August, while joint-stock enterprises grew by 6.0%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 2.3%, and private enterprises grew by 4.6% [3][5]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Among 41 major industries, 31 maintained year-on-year growth in added value in August [3]. - Significant growth was observed in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry at 7.6%, black metal smelting and rolling industry at 7.3%, and automotive manufacturing at 8.4% [3][5]. Group 4: Product Output - In August, out of 623 industrial products, 319 saw a year-on-year increase in output [4]. - Steel production reached 12.277 million tons, up 9.7% year-on-year, while cement production fell by 6.2% to 14.802 million tons [4][5]. - The production of new energy vehicles surged by 22.7% to 1.333 million units in August [6]. Group 5: Sales and Exports - The sales rate of industrial products was 96.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. - The export delivery value of industrial enterprises was 1.3029 trillion yuan, showing a nominal decline of 0.4% year-on-year [4][6].