1月15日，中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜在国新办新闻发布会上表示，根据当前经济金融形势 需要，人民银行将先行推出两方面政策措施，一方面是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率，提高银行重 点领域信贷投放的积极性。另一方面是完善结构性工具，并加大支持力度，进一步助力经济结构转型优 化。 文/李凯旋 《华夏时报》记者了解到，1月14日，财政部、税务总局、住房城乡建设部联合发布《关于延续实施支 持居民换购住房有关个人所得税政策的公告》。《公告》明确自2026年1月1日至2027年12月31日，对出 售自有住房并在现住房出售后1年内在市场重新购买住房的纳税人，对其出售现住房已缴纳的个人所得 税予以退税优惠。 编辑：张蓓 其中，邹澜表示，会同金融监管总局将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%，支持推动商办、房 地产市场去库存。除此之外，邹澜表示，下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。各类再贷款 一年期利率从目前的1.5%下调到1.25%，其他期限档次利率同步调整。 ...

中新社北京1月14日电 (记者 庞无忌)2025年，在楼市迈入结构调整、加速去库存的新周期之际，上游土 地市场也展现出一系列结构性转变：整体规模收缩的同时，土地供应提质，房企投资高度聚焦于核心城 市优质地块，市场分化格局进一步凸显。这些变化折射出房地产上游正率先向新发展模式过渡。 一是缩量。 中指研究院近日发布的数据显示，2025年中国300城各类用地成交面积24.6亿平方米，同比下降10.4%； 土地出让收入3.3万亿元(人民币，下同)，同比下降11.4%。 土地成交规模下滑很大程度上源于供应缩量。2025年，300城推出各类用地规划建筑面积为28.4亿平方 米，同比下降13.0%，降幅高于土地成交面积降幅。这说明在成交乏力、房价总体走低的背景下，各地 主动压降土地和商品房供应规模。 这与国家调控思路一致。2024年10月，自然资源部明确表示，指导各地合理控制新增商品住宅用地供 应，对于去化周期过长的城市暂停供应商品住宅用地。 在这种严控增量的导向下，克而瑞研究中心指出，从2025年年初开始，各地就自发调降商品住宅用地的 供地计划，同时，许多地方采用盘活存量替代增量供应的方法，保障性住房用地占比也有所下降。 ...

一套价值500万元的二手房，交易增值税可降低上万元？2026年开年，房地产市场"减税红包"落地，进 一步利好刚需购房者和置换家庭。 日前，财政部、国家税务总局发布的《关于个人销售住房增值税政策的公告》明确，个人将购买不足2 年的住房对外销售的，按照3%的征收率全额缴纳增值税；个人将购买2年以上(含2年)的住房对外销售 的，免征增值税。公告自2026年1月1日起施行，1月1日前，个人销售住房涉及的增值税尚未申报缴纳 的，符合本公告规定的可按本公告执行。 作为"十五五"开局之年落地的首个楼市新政，此次实施的个人住房增值税新政释放出明确的信号：降低 增值税，直击交易成本痛点；北上广深纳入满2年免征，破除区域政策壁垒；2026年前未申报税费可追 溯享受，体现政策的人性化设计和"温度"。 新政将与各地出台的楼市支持措施形成政策合力。严跃进认为，当前，房地产市场信心持续改善，各类 利好的降税政策将释放出更大的市场效应。一系列政策将发挥非常好的"组合拳"效应，形成"好政策-好 市场-好预期"的良性互动与传导，最终都将助力2026年房地产市场去库存工作，为促进市场良性互动和 交易活跃带来积极作用，在惠及住房消费和预期改善的同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that inventory pressure in the real estate market will be effectively alleviated by 2026, with a significant increase in inventory clearance rates observed in 2025 [1][2] - The real estate policies, including lowering down payments, mortgage rates, and taxes, are expected to continue to have a positive impact on inventory reduction in 2026 [1] - The adjustment of housing prices in various regions is reducing market bubbles, improving the cost-effectiveness of home purchases, and facilitating inventory clearance [1] Group 2 - The second-hand housing market is expected to become the main demand driver, with a projected transaction volume of approximately 7.5 billion square meters, comparable to new housing sales [3] - The average time for properties to be listed has increased, indicating a prolonged transaction cycle in the second-hand market, particularly in first-tier cities [3] - The differentiation in housing prices within major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen is expected to become more pronounced, with core urban areas likely to see stable or rising prices due to population inflow and industrial advantages [4] Group 3 - The market's core characteristics will continue to be differentiation and bottoming out, with policy support and the resolution of key bottlenecks being crucial for market stabilization [5][6] - Short-term policy directions include activating demand through the optimization of restrictive measures in core cities and enhancing housing supply through improved construction standards [6] - It is anticipated that the sales area of new residential properties will decline by 6.2% year-on-year in 2026, while the price performance will vary, with high-quality projects maintaining stable prices [6]

2025年的房地产市场，在分化与调整中呈现和过往不同的行情：二手房成为市场主力，核心城市与远郊 区县、核心城区与远郊区域走势分化加剧，房价"跌穿底部"的态势与市场筑底的信号并存。在政策端持 续发力，限购优化、房票安置等举措不断落地之下，需求端则呈现刚需入场、改善观望的复杂格局。 站在2026年的全新起点，楼市将走向何方？是延续底部徘徊，还是迎来稳步升温？刚需一族可以出手了 吗？改善家庭是否迎来资产升级窗口期？一线城市及重点二线城市豪宅市场又将呈现怎样的独立行情？ 南都湾财社记者采访了十位房地产行业的权威专家进行解读，从全国市场格局到广深等核心城市走势， 从政策导向到置业建议，全面剖析房地产市场核心逻辑与未来趋势，为读者厘清市场迷雾。 2026年是改善家庭升级资产的好时机 看广州 广东中原地产项目总经理黄韬 预计2026年上半年广州楼市仍会延续底部趋势 对比2024年，2025年广州一手住宅的成交量下降。当中与经济环境有关，大部分购房者面临收入下降， 导致购买力也下降；也与国有房企对一手住宅市场的"躺平"有关，国企在2025年可能觉得"卖得多亏得 多"，没有动力降价，促销意愿也比较弱；也有的业主卖掉二手房之后， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai real estate market is experiencing a surge in activity due to favorable policies and a decrease in property prices, prompting potential buyers to reconsider their purchasing strategies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Activity - The weather in Shanghai improved during the New Year holiday, leading to increased foot traffic at real estate sales offices [1]. - Multiple new housing projects were launched in both urban and suburban areas during the holiday, indicating a robust supply side [3]. - The "Qing'an" project in Jing'an District and the "Xiangyu Tianyu Lanchang" project in Minhang District both initiated subscriptions, with average prices of 12,000 yuan/sqm and 8,000 yuan/sqm respectively [3]. Group 2: Pricing and Demand - The "Baoli Duhui Hexu" project in Minhang District offered 144 units at an average price of 69,888 yuan/sqm, while the "An Gao Haiyin Huating" project had a subscription rate of only 44% on its first day [4]. - The "Qing'an" project had a subscription price of approximately 82,590 yuan/sqm, with a total of 30 groups subscribing [4]. - The "Qing'an" project had a total of 384 units listed, with a total value of approximately 39.5 billion yuan, indicating a significant market entry [5]. Group 3: Policy Impact - New policies effective from January 1 aim to reduce the tax burden on home sellers, particularly through a reduction in the value-added tax for properties held for over two years [4][5]. - Adjustments in mortgage rates for both first and second homes were implemented, with rates for first-time buyers dropping from 2.35% to 2.1% for loans under five years [4]. - These policy changes are expected to stimulate demand by lowering the overall cost of purchasing homes, encouraging sellers to list their properties [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - There is a noticeable cautious sentiment among potential buyers, with many opting to wait for more favorable conditions before making purchases [1][7]. - The reduction in the subscription deposit to 500,000 yuan for the "Qing'an" project is aimed at attracting more potential buyers amid a climate of reduced impulsive buying [7].

2026.01. 01 本文字数：3537，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 自2021年下半年以来，房地产本轮调整已有四年有余。刚刚过去的2025年，是行业迈入企稳修复的 关键一年，也是政策从"托底纾困"转向全面提振信心、激活住房需求的一年。 这一年，行业多项关键数据，显示房地产"止跌回稳"出现一定成效。机构数据显示，2025年商品房 成交规模降幅较上年收窄，预计全年销售面积约8.9亿平方米、销售金额8.4万亿元，其中四季度百城 新房成交面积环比增长4%、12月环比增长18%。 2025年，房地产行业的政策主基调是清理限制性措施、促进住房需求释放。 根据中指研究院监测，截至12月1日，全国有超210省市（县）出台政策约560条，政策优化频次较 2024年有所下降，主要围绕激活需求、优化供给两方面落地具体举措。 楼市情绪的真实"温度计"——二手房交易市场，今年则真正进入"市场化深水区"，新房市场与二手房 形成泾渭分明的运行体系，价格、客户等特征均大幅分化。受挂牌量高企等因素影响，存量房价格持 续下调，刚需房源成为交易主力，并带动成交量提升。 "在一系列政策干预下，2025年住宅市场暂时遏制了螺旋 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the transaction area of new and second-hand homes has increased month-on-month, while year-on-year figures show a decline. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized policies to stabilize the real estate market [3][4][61] - The overall direction of the real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with potential for slight fluctuations in housing prices during this process. The report anticipates further stabilization of the market due to supportive fiscal and monetary policies [3][4][61] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focused on winning the battle to ensure housing delivery, with 38 cities initiating self-renovation of old housing. Policies are being implemented to increase the supply of affordable housing and improve the quality of property services [4][12][14] - In Beijing, the social security requirement for non-local buyers to purchase homes has been reduced, and families with two children are allowed to buy multiple properties [4][12][14] Sales Performance - In the 52nd week of 2025, the transaction area of residential properties in 68 major cities reached 3.1 million square meters, showing a month-on-month increase of 8% but a year-on-year decline of 39%. Cumulatively, the transaction area for the year is 118.7 million square meters, down 19% year-on-year [5][17][36] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 cities was 198,000 square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 23% but a month-on-month increase [36] Investment Trends - In the 52nd week of 2025, the total planned land area released in 100 major cities was 1.907 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 8.172 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The average transaction premium rate was 1.2% [42][44] - The transaction area for land in first-tier cities decreased by 33% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a 36% decline. However, third-tier cities experienced a 5% increase in land transaction area [42][44] Financing Conditions - The issuance of domestic credit bonds decreased by 1% month-on-month, totaling 4.29 billion yuan, with an average weighted interest rate of 2.23%, down 16 basis points [6][49][51] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds for the year is 406.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1% [49][54] Market Performance - The real estate index increased by 1.91% in the week of December 22-26, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.95% [56][59] - The report identifies top-performing real estate stocks, including Hualian Holdings and Shoukai Shares, while also noting underperformers like Shijie Holdings [59][60]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of effectively reducing real estate inventory as a key measure to stabilize the real estate market in the coming year, highlighting the need for coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides [1][4]. Group 1: Inventory Reduction Strategies - The national inventory of unsold commercial housing has been decreasing for nine consecutive months since March, yet it still exceeds 750 million square meters as of the end of November, indicating significant inventory pressure [1]. - Revitalizing existing stock through the acquisition of surplus housing for affordable housing is a crucial strategy. This approach not only accelerates inventory reduction but also alleviates financial pressure on some real estate companies [2]. - The progress of the stock acquisition policy has been slow due to challenges such as funding sources, pricing mechanisms, and project selection criteria. Future efforts will focus on optimizing related policies to enhance local government autonomy in acquisition [2]. Group 2: Supply-Side Measures - The shift in urban development from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock necessitates a focus on quality housing rather than merely increasing supply. This includes limiting land supply in high-inventory areas to prevent exacerbating the inventory issue [2]. - The construction of high-quality housing is expected to stimulate demand for upgrading and improving living conditions, with an emphasis on orderly development to avoid short-term disruptions to existing inventory [2]. Group 3: Demand-Side Measures - The real estate market shows significant differentiation across cities, requiring targeted measures to unleash residents' rigid and improvement-driven housing demands. Policies may include loosening restrictions in first-tier cities and providing subsidies and housing fund support in others [3]. - Financial support policies, particularly regarding housing funds, are anticipated to strengthen, potentially including higher loan limits, lower down payments and interest rates, and expanded usage of funds to lower purchasing costs [3]. - The ongoing urbanization process is expected to continue driving the demand for housing among new urban residents, while the potential for upgrading existing housing remains substantial due to rising living standards [4].

在需求端，由于房地产市场在不同城市存在分化，要充分释放居民的刚性和改善性需求，仍需因城施策 采取更多有针对性的措施。市场普遍认为，影响一线城市住房消费的不合理限制有望进一步松绑，其他 城市仍将以购房补贴和住房公积金政策为主。其中，作为提振住房消费的重要金融支持政策，公积金政 策的支持力度将随着公积金制度改革的深化进一步加大，未来改革举措可考虑提高公积金贷款最高额 度、降低首付和利率、支持异地互认互贷、支持家庭代际互助、支持提取公积金用于首付、扩大提取使 用范围等，从而帮助居民降低购房成本，促进住房消费。此外，为降低购房者的贷款负担，房贷利率仍 有进一步调降空间，甚至关于房贷利率补贴政策可能性探讨最近也受到关注。 当前房地产市场处在新旧模式转换的调整期，对于转型过程中出现的阵痛需要客观理性看待。我国城镇 化进程尚未结束，新型城镇化仍将带动新市民群体刚性住房需求的持续释放，人民群众生活品质提高带 来的"以旧换新""以小换大"的改善性住房需求潜力巨大，房地产仍有较大发展空间。 推动明年房地产去库存，从供需两端协同发力是关键。不仅要在供给端严控增量、盘活存量，还要在需 求端采取有力措施加快消化库存。 在盘活存量方面， ...