证券研究报告 | 行业月报 2025 年 08 月 19 日 建材 7 月数据点评：地产及基建投资增速双降，静待政策加码 水泥玻璃产量：水泥、玻璃产量累计同比达-4.5%、-5.0%，玻璃降幅略有 收窄。2025年 1-7月，全国水泥产量累计同比为-4.5%，7月当月同比为-5.6%， 降幅较 6 月当月基本相当。2025 年 1-7 月，全国玻璃产量累计同比为-5.0%， 7 月当月同比为-3.4%，较 6 月降幅继续收窄。 下游投资情况：竣工面积降幅明显扩大，基建投资由正转负。2025 年 7 月商 品房销售、施工、新开工、竣工面积同比变动-8.4%、-16.4%、-15.2%、-29.5%， 6 月同比值分别为-6.5%、+4.8%、-9.5%、-2.2%，降幅均有扩大，竣工面 积降幅扩大尤为明显。2025 年 7 月广义库存去化周期 5.33 年，较上月小幅 增加。2025 年 7 月房地产投资、基建投资同比-17.1%（6 月为-12.4%）、-1.9% （6 月为 5.3%），房地产投资降幅扩大，基建投资增速由正转负。 风险提示：原材料价格上涨或超预期；下游需求或低于预期；环保政策或出 现反复；行 ...

Group 1 - Some REITs are considered overrated while smaller, lesser-known REITs are often underrated and deserve more attention [1] - The company has released its latest top investment picks for August 2025, providing immediate access to exciting opportunities [1] Group 2 - The company invests thousands of hours and over $100,000 annually into researching profitable investment opportunities [2] - The approach has garnered over 500 five-star reviews from satisfied members who are experiencing benefits [2] - The company encourages potential investors to join now to maximize their returns [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry, indicating a cautious but potential investment opportunity as the sector adjusts to current market conditions [3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a "W-shaped" bottoming process, with new construction expected to show a trend of rising and then falling in the second half of the year, with the peak likely approaching zero growth [2][39]. - The overall development investment is under pressure, with July's investment amount showing a year-on-year decline of 17.0%, reflecting weaker construction intensity due to declining sales market heat [2][38]. - The funding chain index for the real estate sector has slightly improved but remains at historically low levels, indicating potential future improvements in the financial situation of some companies [2][10]. Summary by Sections Sales and Construction Data - In July, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for new housing sales area was -7.8%, continuing a trend of low market activity since May [13][14]. - The total sales area for the first seven months of 2025 was 515.6 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.0% [9][14]. - The new construction area in July saw a year-on-year decline of 15.4%, with a cumulative decline of 19.4% for the first seven months [2][39]. Price Trends - The new home price index for 70 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 0.31% in July, with significant drops in second-tier cities [10][11]. - The average price of new homes in July was 9,613 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the narrowing gap between net rental yields and mortgage rates is a key observation point for total demand in both new and second-hand housing markets [37]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable cash flow generation capabilities, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments, as potential investment opportunities [37][38].

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is currently undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with a significant decline in investment and housing prices, necessitating continued policy support to stimulate demand and restore the market's focus on housing as a necessity and for public welfare [1][2][3] Investment Trends - From January to July, national real estate development investment reached 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% [1] - The new construction area of residential buildings fell by 19.4% year-on-year, but the decline has been narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2] Price Movements - In July, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - Second and third-tier cities saw year-on-year price declines of 2.8% and 4.2%, respectively, with reductions also narrowing [3] Market Recovery Indicators - The trend of price declines in the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with some cities experiencing price increases [3][4] - Financial support for real estate is improving, with bank approvals for loans significantly increasing, which may lead to a reduction in the year-on-year decline in real estate investment in the second half of the year [2] Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that local governments should focus on stabilizing housing prices and adapt pricing strategies to better match market demand [5] - There is a call for continued exploration of policies to encourage housing demand and improve the overall market environment [1][5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][25]. Core Viewpoints - Fixed asset investment continued to weaken in the first seven months of 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Manufacturing investment year-on-year increased by 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period [4][12]. - Infrastructure investment is under pressure, with transportation, water conservancy, and public utility investments showing declining growth rates. Total infrastructure investment (including all sectors) increased by 7.3% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the first half of the year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2%, down 1.4 percentage points [5][6]. - Real estate investment remained low, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% in the first seven months of 2025, a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous period. The number of new starts decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, while completions worsened with a decrease of 16.5% [12][18]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment - In the first seven months of 2025, fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 6.2%, indicating a synchronized decline in growth rates [4][6]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment faced pressure, with transportation, water conservancy, and public utility sectors experiencing declining growth rates. The year-on-year increase for total infrastructure investment was 7.3%, while investment excluding electricity was 3.2% [5][6]. Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment remained at a low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% in the first seven months of 2025. The decline in new starts was 18.3%, and completions decreased by 16.5% [12][18]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The current industry total is weak, but regional investments may gain elasticity as national strategic layouts deepen. Recommended low-valuation state-owned enterprises include China Chemical, China Energy Construction, China Railway, and China Railway Construction. Attention is also drawn to China Power Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Metallurgical Group [18].

Group 1: Fixed Asset Investment - National fixed asset investment from January to July increased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 3.2% year-on-year, down 1.4 percentage points from the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Investment Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2] - Infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, with an annual growth rate projected at around 6.0%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - Changes in infrastructure investment include a shift in funding sources, with local special bonds facing constraints, while long-term special government bonds provide support [2] Group 3: Real Estate Investment - Real estate development investment from January to July decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - The area of housing under construction fell by 9.2%, and the area of new commercial housing sold decreased by 4.0% [3] - The expected annual decline in real estate investment is projected to be around 9.0%, a reduction of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment from January to July increased by 6.2% year-on-year, although this represents a decline of 1.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning from quantitative expansion to qualitative development, with expectations of a shift from high-speed to medium-speed growth [4] - The annual growth rate for manufacturing investment is anticipated to be around 6.0%, down 3.2 percentage points from the previous year [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 39.13 billion, an increase of 12.7% compared to 2024 [2] - Profit before IP revaluation was CNY 6.8 billion, with a per share profit of CNY 1.94, up 1.6% [2] - Profit attributable to shareholders decreased to CNY 6.3 billion or CNY 1.8 per share, down 26.2% [3] - Recurring revenue increased to CNY 31.76 billion, representing 81% of total revenue, while recurring profit contribution improved to CNY 8.5 billion, accounting for 83% of profit contribution [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Property sales revenue increased to CNY 7.34 billion, up almost 59%, but profit contribution decreased by 2.9% to CNY 1.77 billion [4] - Property rental revenue was CNY 3 billion, down 3.7%, with a profit contribution of CNY 2.3 billion, down 5.3% [6] - Hotel and service suite revenue reached CNY 2.2 billion, up 2.9%, while profit contribution was CNY 794 million, down 3.5% [9] - Infrastructure and utility operations saw revenue of CNY 12.5 billion, up 5.9%, with profit contribution increasing by 5.4% to CNY 629 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Contribution from Hong Kong was 27%, Mainland China 15%, and overseas markets 58% [3] - Overall occupancy in Hong Kong was around 86%, while the European portfolio exceeded 99% [6] - The retail properties experienced an 11.5% drop in revenue, primarily due to the expiration of a joint venture in Shanghai [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a low leverage while generating significant cash flow for new investments, particularly in commercial and retail properties in Hong Kong [21][23] - The focus is on returns and risks rather than specific sectors or regions for new investments [25] - The company is interested in land replenishment and corporate lending transactions in Hong Kong [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macro environment remains uncertain, but there is optimism regarding cash generation and potential interest rate decreases [21] - The Hong Kong residential property market is expected to see generous launch pricing due to high inventory levels [27] - The company is targeting Hong Kong buyers for properties in the Greater Bay Area, with positive responses reported [31] Other Important Information - The company has a total land bank of 124 million square feet, with 67 million square feet under development [16] - The company maintains a stable credit rating from Moody's and Standard & Poor's [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is your view on earnings in the next few years, particularly your earnings from development operations? - Earnings from recurring income businesses are expected to remain strong, but earnings from development operations will not be significant in the next few years [20][20] Question: What is the company's capital allocation strategy for the remainder of the year? - The company will not expand or invest at the expense of leverage and is focused on maintaining cash flow while exploring new investments [21][22] Question: What are the key criteria for new investments and acquisitions? - The focus is on returns and risks rather than specific sectors or regions, with an interest in land replenishment and property investments in Hong Kong [25][26] Question: What is your view on the Hong Kong residential property market? - The primary market has seen increased volume, but price momentum is lacking due to high inventory levels [27] Question: Could you provide an update on the completion schedule of the Anderson Road project? - A delay in the project completion date cannot be avoided, but the impact on operations is expected to be small [29] Question: What kind of development margins should we expect for the full year? - The second half is expected to contribute profit from several projects, but Blue Coast will incur losses [30] Question: What is your strategy to generate sales momentum in the Mainland? - Marketing campaigns targeting Hong Kong buyers for properties in the Greater Bay Area have shown good responses [31] Question: What is the outlook for the pub division in the UK? - The team is working to improve efficiency and protect operating margins, with hopes for a better second half of the year [37]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported operating earnings of $0.25 per security for FY 2025, in line with guidance, and forecasts earnings and distributions for FY 2026 of $0.255 per security, reflecting a 2% growth over FY 2025 [4][5][31] - The net tangible assets (NTA) per security as of June 30, 2025, is $4.59, consistent with the previous half-year results, with minor impacts from swap movements [5][12] - The portfolio delivered a 3% like-for-like net property income growth, with 54% of income being CPI linked [5][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio consists of a diversified real estate portfolio valued at approximately $5.5 billion, with an occupancy level of 99.9% and a weighted average lease term (WALT) of 9.3 years [3][22] - The company completed $715 million of new interest rate hedging, with 89% of debt hedged as of June 30, 2025, and an average forecast hedging of 72% for FY 2026 [6][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio value is on average 18% higher in June 2025 compared to June 2020, driven by contracted and market rental growth [7] - The average cap rate of the portfolio is 5.4%, reflecting no change over the past twelve months [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to provide stable and secure income while targeting both income and capital growth through a diversified portfolio leased to corporate and government tenants [30] - Active curation and asset recycling are ongoing to enhance portfolio quality, with a focus on acquiring accretive strategic assets [14][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management believes valuations have troughed and expects some cap rate compression and valuation growth in the coming period due to a lower interest rate environment [33][89] - The company is optimistic about tenant demand across various sectors, particularly in retail and industrial, with long leases in place [72] Other Important Information - The company has maintained net zero Scope one and Scope two emissions for assets under its operational control and has installed 8.9 megawatts of solar across its portfolio [28][29] - Moody's reaffirmed the company's Baa1 investment grade credit rating [7][13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding acquisitions and balance sheet capacity - Management indicated that current gearing is within the target range and expressed confidence in future valuation growth due to expected interest rate cuts [33][89] Question: On the Department of Defense acquisition and market rents - Management is negotiating to extend the lease and sees potential for the property to become a long-term asset [36][52] Question: On cost of debt and margins - Average margins remain just under 1.5%, with no significant changes expected [42] Question: On acquisition opportunities and market conditions - Management noted that while there are limited high-quality long-term opportunities, they remain active in the sale and leaseback space [46] Question: On the ALE portfolio and rental expectations - Management believes the ALE portfolio remains under-rented and is confident in its value [84]

Core Viewpoint - McDonald's, a major player in the fast-food industry, is planning to sell eight retail properties in Hong Kong, marking a significant shift in its real estate strategy [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Property Sale Details - McDonald's is set to sell eight retail properties located in key areas of Hong Kong, including Tsim Sha Tsui, Causeway Bay, and Mong Kok, with a total estimated value of approximately HKD 1.2 billion [5]. - The properties range in size from about 6,800 square feet to 19,000 square feet, and buyers can bid on the entire portfolio or individual properties [5]. - This sale is part of a phased plan to divest all 23 of its retail locations in Hong Kong, with a total market value exceeding HKD 3 billion [5]. Market Context - The properties being sold have been held by McDonald's for several decades, with some dating back over 50 years [6]. - The overall occupancy rate of the properties is 100%, with McDonald's restaurants operating in each location, alongside other retail tenants [6][7]. - The current market conditions in Hong Kong show a decline in property values, with core street shop capital values down 2.3% quarter-on-quarter and 5.4% year-on-year as of Q2 2025 [7]. Investment Implications - The sale of these properties is seen as an opportunity for investors to acquire stable rental income from a strong tenant like McDonald's [7]. - The estimated market return rate for core street shops in Hong Kong is approximately 2.47% based on net effective rent [7]. - Despite the challenging market environment, there is interest from potential buyers, indicating a demand for well-located properties with reliable tenants [9]. McDonald's Business Model - McDonald's operates primarily through a franchise model, with 95% of its restaurants globally being franchised, while also generating significant rental income from its owned properties [11][14]. - In 2024, McDonald's reported total revenues of USD 25.92 billion, with rental income accounting for approximately 38.65% of total revenue [14]. - The company has a history of leveraging real estate for financial stability, often being referred to as an "invisible landlord" due to its substantial rental income [11][12].

Core Insights - The Baltic commercial real estate market in Q2 2025 showed low transaction activity due to a lack of equity capital and modest economic growth, although declining EURIBOR rates reduced borrowing costs [1] Financial Performance Overview - EfTEN Real Estate Fund AS reported consolidated sales revenue of €8.210 million for Q2 2025, a 3.1% increase year-on-year, and €16.068 million for H1 2025, reflecting a 1.0% increase [4] - The fund's consolidated net operating income (NOI) for H1 2025 was €14.845 million, a 0.4% increase from H1 2024, with an NOI margin of 92% [5] - The consolidated net profit for Q2 2025 was €4.025 million, significantly up from €2.442 million in Q2 2024, driven by a positive change in the fair value of investment properties [6] - For H1 2025, the consolidated net profit was €8.192 million, an increase from €6.250 million in H1 2024, with interest expenses decreasing by €973 thousand, or 22% [7] Real Estate Portfolio - As of 30 June 2025, the fund held 37 commercial real estate investments with a fair value of €382.018 million, up from €373.815 million at the end of 2024 [8] - The vacancy rate for the fund's investment properties was 3.7%, with the highest vacancy in the office segment at 16.2% [12] Investment and Development Activities - In H1 2025, the fund invested €7.657 million in new properties and development, including the acquisition of a property in Tallinn for €4 million [9][10] - The Paemurru logistics center was completed in Q2 2025, contributing to the fund's revenue growth [11] Financing and Interest Rates - The fund's subsidiaries have floating interest rate bank loans, and with the decline in EURIBOR, interest expenses have decreased significantly [3] - As of 30 June 2025, the weighted average interest rate on loan agreements was 3.95%, down from 4.89% at the end of 2024 [16] - The fund's interest coverage ratio improved to 3.7 as of 30 June 2025, compared to 2.9 a year earlier [17] Share Information - The net asset value (NAV) per share of EfTEN Real Estate Fund AS was €19.98 as of 30 June 2025, reflecting a 1.9% decrease during the first half of 2025 [19]