证 券 研 究 报 告 负债端"反内卷"政策成效显著，投资端表现分化 ——保险行业2025年中报综述 证券分析师： 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 2025.9.16 核心观点：负债端"反内卷"政策成效显著，投资端表现分化 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 利润表现分化，EV稳步增长。1H25 A股上市险企归母净利润yoy+3.7%至1782亿元，受投资表现及金融资产会计分类、利率波动等因素影响， 上市险企利润增速位居-23.5%至1103.5%区间；从利源结构来看，1H25 A股上市险企保险服务业绩、投资业绩合计分别达1310.50/928.45亿元， 占税前利润比重分别达58.0%/41.1%，利源结构相对均衡。截至6月末，上市险企EV较24年末增速位居2.6%-18.4%区间，表现稳健。 ◼ 负债端"反内卷"政策持续显效，NBV、COR表现亮眼。1）人身险方面，多数险企NBVM同比改善驱动NBV延续高增态势。A股上市险企 1H25合计实现NBV754.22亿元，同比增长30.5%，上市险企1H25NBV增速位居14.0%-58.4% ...

中国财险公布25H1 业绩，上半年公司保险服务收入和净利润分别增长5.6%和32.3%至2490 亿元和245 亿元，综合成本率同比下降1.4pps 至94.8%，未年化ROE 同比上升1.3pps 至9.0%，中期每股派息同比增 加15.4%，未年化总投资收益率同比提升0.2pps 至2.6%，承保和投资业务均较为出色。 车险业务：严格执行报行合一降低费用率，车险质量持续提升 1. 中国财险的车险业务25 上半年保险服务收入同比增长3.5%至1503 亿元，综合成本率同比下降2.2pps 至94.2%，主要源于费用率同比下降4.1pps 至21.1%，而费用率的大幅下降则是源于监管和行业23 年末 起推行的一系列严格执行车险报行合一的举措，具体包括23 年9 月金融监管总局下发的《关于加强车险 费用管理的通知》、23 年11 月八家头部财产险公司制定签署的《车险合规经营自律公约》、24 年4 月 中保协召开会议要求落实监管总局在全行业试行"查处、通报、挂钩"三项机制等； 2. 中国财险的车险业务质量进一步提升，质量较高的家自车保险占车险总保费的比例较去年同期提升 1pps 至73.4%，自22H1 以来累计 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is a leading property insurance company with continuously improving underwriting quality, supported by strong short-term and long-term fundamentals [5] - The company is expected to benefit from a significant decrease in natural disaster economic losses and regulatory changes that enhance the profitability of its auto insurance segment [7][10] - The report anticipates a positive impact on non-auto insurance performance due to upcoming regulatory policies [10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price is HKD 18.75, with a market capitalization of HKD 417,051.85 million and a circulating market value of HKD 129,361.76 million [3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported insurance service revenue and net profit growth of 5.6% and 32.3%, reaching RMB 249 billion and RMB 24.5 billion respectively [8] - The combined cost ratio decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 94.8%, and the annualized ROE increased by 1.3 percentage points to 9.0% [8] - The auto insurance segment saw a revenue increase of 3.5% to RMB 150.3 billion, with a combined cost ratio down by 2.2 percentage points to 94.2% [8] - Non-auto insurance revenue grew by 8.9% to RMB 98.8 billion, with a combined cost ratio down by 0.1 percentage points to 95.7% [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 is RMB 42.5 billion, RMB 46.8 billion, and RMB 51.0 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.2%, 10.1%, and 9.0% respectively [10] - The current closing price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 8.9 for 2025, 8.1 for 2026, and 7.5 for 2027 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The significant growth in the bancassurance channel's performance in the first half of 2025 is a common characteristic among the five major listed insurance companies in A-shares, driven by factors such as "reporting and banking integration," strong demand for wealth management, and the recovery of the "one-to-many" model in bancassurance [1][6]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - China Ping An's bancassurance channel NBV increased by 168.6% year-on-year [3] - China Life's new single premium in the bancassurance channel grew by 111.1% year-on-year [3] - China Pacific Insurance's new insurance business in the bancassurance channel rose by 95.6% [3] - New China Life's first-year premium for long-term insurance in the bancassurance channel surged by 150.3% [3] - China People's Insurance's NBV on a comparable basis increased by 107.7% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - Three main factors are driving the significant growth in the bancassurance channel: 1. "Reporting and banking integration" enhances the business value of the bancassurance channel [6] 2. The low-interest-rate environment has led to strong demand for wealth management, with insurance products offering relative advantages over bank deposits [6] 3. The recovery of the "one-to-many" model has opened up growth opportunities [6] Group 3: Channel Strategy - The bancassurance channel is becoming a consensus among listed insurance companies, with significant increases in both the number of partnerships with banks and per capita productivity [3][4] - The diversification of bancassurance channels is a growing trend, with a focus on not only state-owned and joint-stock banks but also city commercial banks and rural commercial banks [4] - The insurance industry is shifting towards a multi-channel strategy, recognizing the need to cater to different customer segments through various distribution channels [8]

Core Insights - The insurance channel through banks is showing signs of recovery after a period of transformation, with its revenue share returning to 50% for the first time in 15 years [1][2] - The recovery is driven by multiple factors including policy changes, market dynamics, and a shift towards deeper strategic cooperation between banks and insurance companies [1][4][11] Policy Changes - The "reporting and banking integration" policy has been a significant catalyst for the transformation of the bank-insurance channel, aiming to standardize fee structures and reduce costs [4][5] - The cancellation of the "one-to-three" restriction allows banks to collaborate with more insurance companies, further enhancing cooperation opportunities [6][7] Market Dynamics - The bank-insurance channel is becoming a strategic alternative for insurance companies as individual insurance channels face growth challenges [11][12] - Banks are increasingly viewing bank-insurance business as a key driver for non-interest income, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [12][13] Performance Metrics - In the first half of the year, the bank-insurance channel's premium income growth outpaced individual insurance channels, with major insurance companies reporting significant year-on-year growth [2][3] - Key performance indicators show that the new business value from bank-insurance channels has increased significantly, with some companies reporting over 100% growth [3][9] Strategic Cooperation - The bank-insurance collaboration is evolving from a simple product distribution model to a deeper strategic alliance focused on customer needs [15][17] - Insurance companies are enhancing their strategies by improving product offerings, expanding distribution networks, and leveraging digital tools to increase efficiency [16][17] Customer Demand - There is a notable shift in customer preferences towards long-term, stable insurance products, driven by demographic changes and economic conditions [13][14] - The current market indicates that a small percentage of bank customers are utilizing insurance products, highlighting significant potential for growth in this area [14]

中国太平 20250911 摘要 中国太平银保业务与银行支行深度合作，倾向于与头部公司合作，尤其 看重其在一二线城市的网点能力和在三四线城市的医康养服务优势。 2024 年中国太平 NPV 增速显著，NPV margin 提升迅速，2025 年继 续保持核心队伍优势和经营效率。 中国太平在代理人渠道转型分红险方面，注重队伍稳定，疫情期间未大 幅裁员，而是加强考核。通过增员、提高收入和积极性来巩固队伍。个 险渠道通过定价利率下降及费用倒逼实现价值增长，严格管控运营费用， 提高产品定价。 尽管新业务合同服务边际同比下降，但整体合同服务边际余额仍稳健增 长，得益于前期合同存量释放利润。公司优化产品结构、提升客户满意 度及加强续期管理，有效增加存量合同贡献。 中国太平在精算假设和财务测算上相对保守，CSM 含金量更高。2025 年分红险转型坚决，超过 90%的长单新单为分红险。分红险价值主要体 现在未来超额收益分给客户，影响名义价值率，且期限较短，投资收益 率和折现率假设更实际。 Q&A 在银保渠道落实报行合一和 1+3 合作限制取消之后，中国太平对银保渠道的 发展策略是怎样的？ 上半年（2025 年），中国太平在银 ...

Summary of the Insurance Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The insurance industry showed stable growth in the first half of 2025, with profits slightly increasing. All listed insurance companies, except for China Ping An, achieved positive growth, with total net assets increasing by 1.2% [1][2][22]. Key Points Financial Performance - The overall performance of the insurance industry in the first half of 2025 met expectations, confirming a recovery in profits. The net profit growth ranged from -8.8% for China Ping An to positive growth for other companies, with total net assets reaching 2.19 trillion yuan [2][22]. - New business value (NBV) showed strong momentum, with growth rates between 20% and 65%, primarily driven by accelerated sales through bank insurance channels and improved value rates [2][4]. Investment Performance - Under new accounting standards, investment performance became the dominant factor for profitability. Companies like Xinhua and PICC saw significant increases in the proportion of investment performance to pre-tax profits, while China Pacific and Ping An remained focused on insurance service performance [1][3]. - Net investment income for the five listed insurance companies increased by 6% year-on-year, totaling 285.2 billion yuan, with total investment income rising by 9% to 367.4 billion yuan [8][9]. Distribution Channels - The individual insurance agent channel continued to decline, with a 3.5% decrease in the number of agents. However, the average MVA (Market Value Added) per agent improved significantly [5]. - The bank insurance channel saw an increase in efficiency, with its share of total premiums rising by 11% to 110% year-on-year. The new single value rate in this channel ranged from 12% to 29% [5]. Property Insurance - The growth rate of original premium income in property insurance slowed down, but the comprehensive cost ratio improved significantly. The growth rate for auto insurance slowed, while new energy vehicle insurance maintained rapid growth, with Ping An and PICC reporting increases of 49.3% and 36%, respectively [6][7]. Asset Allocation - The allocation of assets among insurance companies showed a trend towards increasing OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) equity. The proportion of bond assets remained high, with the highest being China Pacific at 76.5% and the lowest being PICC at 49.7% [10][11][14]. - Stock and fund asset allocations saw double-digit growth for several companies, with Ping An leading in new stock proportions at 45% [12]. Future Outlook - The outlook for insurance stocks is positive, with expectations of recovery in valuations due to low interest rates and reduced costs. The potential for increased sales of rights-based products and the impact of economic recovery are also highlighted [22][23]. Recommendations - Focus on companies with low operating costs and valuations, such as China Pacific; those with significant equity returns like Xinhua; and those with good dividend yields and undervaluation like China Ping An and China Taiping [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the individual insurance channel of listed life insurance companies is under pressure, with premium growth lagging behind the bank insurance channel, which has seen double-digit increases [1][2] - In the first half of the year, five major listed life insurance companies achieved a total premium income of 9,628.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.01% [1][2] - The individual insurance channel remains a crucial source of premium income, contributing over 70% to the total premium income of these companies [1] Group 2 - Except for China Ping An, all other four listed life insurance companies reported positive growth in individual insurance channel premium income, with China Life achieving 4,044.48 billion yuan (up 2.64%), Taikang Life at 1,373.8 billion yuan (up 0.9%), New China Life at 725.26 billion yuan (up 5.5%), and PICC Life at 354.14 billion yuan (up 3%) [2] - The growth in individual insurance premiums is primarily supported by renewal premiums, while new business premiums have declined for most companies, except for New China Life [2] Group 3 - The average monthly first-year commission income for Taikang Life's core sales force was 7,120 yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year, while Ping An Life's agents earned 9,898 yuan per person per month, a decrease of 17.3% [3] - The decline in agent activity and income is attributed to the implementation of regulatory requirements and product transformation, which are expected to stabilize in the future [3] Group 4 - Since the regulatory "cleaning up and improving quality" initiative began in 2019, the individual insurance channel has seen a significant reduction in personnel, dropping from a peak of 9.12 million to around 2 million [4] - Despite the reduction in personnel, the new business value in the individual insurance channel has shown significant improvement, with Ping An Life's new business value increasing by 17% year-on-year [4] Group 5 - The reduction in personnel has led to a noticeable improvement in the efficiency and quality of the individual insurance channel, driven by marketing system reforms and digital empowerment [5][6] - Taikang Life has optimized its team structure and enhanced its capabilities through digital initiatives, resulting in a 12.7% year-on-year increase in average monthly first-year premium per core salesperson [6] Group 6 - The ongoing transformation of the individual insurance channel is focused on professionalization and specialization, as indicated by the recent regulatory guidance aimed at upgrading the personal agency channel [7][8] - Long-term strategies emphasize improving the quality and productivity of agents to adapt to increasingly complex insurance products [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term performance reports from listed insurance companies indicate a significant increase in both premium scale and business value through the bancassurance channel, suggesting a revitalization of this channel after the strict implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy for two years [1][2]. Summary by Sections Premium Income and Business Value Growth - In the first half of the year, five listed life insurance companies achieved a total premium income of 2549.97 billion yuan through the bancassurance channel, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.9% [2]. - Specific contributions include: China Life at 724.44 billion yuan (up 45.7%), PICC Life at 531.04 billion yuan (up 24.1%), New China Life at 461.6 billion yuan (up 65.1%), Taikang Life at 416.6 billion yuan (up 82.6%), and Ping An at 415.97 billion yuan (up 37.5%) [2]. - The contribution of the bancassurance channel to the total premium income of these five companies increased from 14.2% to 19.3% year-on-year [2]. New Business Value and Key Performance Indicators - The bancassurance channel has become a crucial driver for the growth of new business value, with PICC Life reporting that nearly 60% of its premium income came from this channel, leading to a 71.7% year-on-year increase in new business value [2]. - Ping An achieved a new business value of 59.72 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 168.6% [2]. Long-term Premium Income and Strategic Importance - Key indicators for future premium income, such as the first-year premium income from long-term insurance, showed substantial growth, with China Life and New China Life reporting year-on-year increases of 112.4% and 150.3%, respectively [3]. - Executives from various companies emphasized the bancassurance channel's contribution to value, with statements highlighting its importance as a pillar for company value sources [3]. Regulatory Changes and Cost Structure - The implementation of the "reporting and operation integration" policy has led to a more rational fee structure in the bancassurance channel, with regulatory measures aimed at addressing long-standing issues of high costs and unreasonable fee structures [4]. - The regulatory changes have resulted in a unified standard for commissions on long-term premium products, which is expected to enhance the value of new business despite initial declines in new single premium income [5]. Expansion and Collaboration - The removal of restrictions on the number of insurance companies that can collaborate with a single bank branch has facilitated broader cooperation between leading insurance companies and banks, enhancing competitive advantages [6]. - Companies are focusing on optimizing product offerings and improving service quality to adapt to the new competitive landscape, with significant growth in bancassurance channel performance reported by several firms [6][7]. Future Outlook and Challenges - Companies are optimistic about the future of the bancassurance channel, with plans to enhance sustainable development capabilities and strengthen partnerships with key banks [7]. - Challenges remain, including the need for insurance companies to improve product design and service capabilities to meet the heightened expectations of bank customers regarding product profitability and value [7].

Core Insights - The auto insurance business remains a cornerstone for the property insurance sector, with the top three insurers (PICC, Ping An, and Taikang) generating a total premium income of 306.2 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% of the industry [1][2] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) insurance sector is experiencing a turnaround, with several leading insurers achieving underwriting profitability, indicating a potential recovery for the industry [1][4] - The implementation of the "reporting and pricing together" policy has effectively curbed chaotic competition in the market, allowing insurers to focus more on risk management and service enhancement [3][7] Auto Insurance Performance - The top three property insurers reported a combined auto insurance premium income of 306.28 billion yuan in the first half of the year, representing 68% of the total auto insurance market [2] - Premium growth rates for PICC, Ping An, and Taikang were 3.4%, 3.6%, and 2.8% respectively, below the industry average growth rate of 4.5% [2] - The combined cost ratio for these insurers showed significant improvement, with PICC at 94.2% (down 2.2 percentage points), Ping An at 95.5% (down 2.6 percentage points), and Taikang at 95.3% (down 1.8 percentage points) [2][4] New Energy Vehicle Insurance Growth - The NEV insurance market has seen rapid growth, with premium income expected to rise from 24.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 140.9 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 55% [4] - NEV insurance premiums are projected to reach approximately 480 billion yuan by 2030, making up over 40% of total auto insurance premiums [4] - Ping An reported insuring 5.75 million NEVs in the first half of the year, a 49.3% increase year-on-year, with premium income of 21.7 billion yuan, up 46.2% [4] Challenges and Strategies - Despite some insurers achieving profitability in NEV insurance, the overall industry still faces challenges, particularly in commercial vehicle insurance, which remains unprofitable [5][7] - The industry is focusing on risk reduction as a core strategy to improve the quality of NEV insurance operations, with initiatives aimed at lowering repair costs and enhancing service levels [7][8] - Insurers are collaborating with manufacturers to optimize vehicle designs and improve risk management through data utilization [8]