实时黄金订单流分析 黄金多空深度博弈，地缘担忧和政策不确定性或将加剧波动！阿汤哥、顺姐正在用订单流分析资金动 向！点击观看 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the Nasdaq rising by 0.31%, while the S&P 500 remained flat and the Dow Jones fell by 0.25% [1] - Major tech stocks had varied performances, with Nvidia increasing over 4% to reach a market capitalization of $3.77 trillion, making it the highest valued company globally [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping by 0.6% [1] Group 2 - President Trump warned of a potential resurgence in the Israel-Iran conflict during a NATO summit, which led to a significant spike in international oil prices, with WTI crude rising above $66 and Brent crude above $67.50 [2] - Trump emphasized continued pressure on Iran while downplaying the likelihood of a nuclear agreement, indicating flexibility in sanctions policy [2] - Fed Chair Powell suggested that future trade agreements could create room for interest rate cuts, amidst criticism from Trump regarding his intelligence and performance [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the high uncertainty in the U.S. policy environment and fiscal path will dominate global economic and market trends over the next 12 months, with geopolitical risks and high debt levels exacerbating market vulnerabilities [1] - Major economies are showing resilience, but their growth paths are diverging, with the U.S. economy expected to slow down while Europe is projected to achieve moderate growth [1] - The report forecasts global economic growth to slow down, with estimates of 2.9% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026, while developed markets are expected to grow at approximately 1.3% and emerging markets at 3.9% over the next two years [1] Group 2 - In fixed income investments, due to increased interest rate volatility, a steepening yield curve is anticipated, leading to a preference for flexible strategies and diversification into global markets outside the U.S., particularly European and emerging market government bonds [2] - The company is optimistic about global equities, focusing on reasonably valued and profit-stable companies, while cautiously selecting sectors through major investment themes such as European defense and infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and U.S. deregulation [2] - The current investment strategy emphasizes risk diversification, reducing reliance on U.S. Treasuries, and shifting towards European and emerging market bonds due to high debt levels and rising inflation expectations [2] Group 3 - Overall, while policy uncertainty presents challenges for the global economy and markets, the company identifies investment opportunities related to different asset prices, noting that major economies and companies have shown strong resilience despite the uncertain and weak growth outlook [3] - The outlook for the global credit market remains optimistic, with expectations that corporate earnings will not fall into recession [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that despite increased policy uncertainty in the first half of 2025, the global economy is expected to operate smoothly, with major central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) continuing to lower interest rates [1][2] Economic Outlook - CICC anticipates a convergence of economic momentum between the US and non-US regions, primarily driven by a slowdown in the US economy [2][3] - The resilience of the US private sector balance sheets suggests a low risk of recession, although marginal growth is expected to slow down [2] - Non-US regions benefit from a more accommodative monetary policy environment, with the IMF estimating that the GDP output gap in these regions remains negative [2][4] Regional Analysis - CICC expresses a relatively optimistic view on the European market for the second half of the year, supported by the convergence of economic growth momentum between Europe and the US [3][4] - Emerging markets are expected to see marginal improvements, but overall absolute performance may be limited, necessitating regional selection [4][3] - Japan is viewed cautiously in the short term, but structural opportunities are anticipated as the country moves out of deflation [4][3] Sector Preferences - CICC's sector preferences for the second half of the year, ranked from most to least favored, are: Technology (Communication, Software, Advertising > Electronics > Content), Industrial (Power Equipment > Automation), and Financials [1][2] - CICC maintains a cautious stance on consumer-related sectors and bulk raw materials [1][2]

6月13日凌晨，以色列国防军数十架战机划破夜空，对伊朗境内数十个与核计划及军事设施相关的目标发动了代号"狮子的力量"的多轮空袭。 伊朗首都德黑兰凌晨的爆炸声，如同投入全球资本市场的深水炸弹。 黄金的爆发并非孤立事件，而是多重利好因素在地缘政治导火索点燃下的集中释放。 过去几周，黄金涨势虽略有沉寂，但支撑其长期走强的基石依然稳固。各国央行持续的"去美元化"购金潮在2025年丝毫未减，为金价提供了坚实的底层支 撑。 以方宣称，伊朗拥有在短期内制造多枚核弹的能力，必须消除这一"迫在眉睫的威胁"。几乎同时，伊朗武装部队总参谋长穆罕默德·巴盖里遭暗杀的消息传 出，伊朗多个省份相继响起爆炸声，伊斯兰革命卫队首都指挥总部也据报遇袭。 中东局势一夜惊变，骤然升级至近年最危险的边缘。 消息刺激下，港股市场黄金股集体逆势上涨，截止发稿，赤峰黄金涨近15%，山东黄金、灵宝黄金、招金矿业涨超5%，潼关黄金、中国白银集团、紫金矿 业、中国黄金国际等跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | 年初至今涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 06693 | 赤峰 ...

世界银行下调了对今年全球经济增长的预测。 6月10日周二，世界银行将2025年全球经济增长预期从今年1月预测的2.7%下调至2.3%，这意味着过去 17年来，该增速仅优于2009年全球金融危机和2020年新冠疫情引发的经济衰退期间。 世界银行警告称，由于贸易紧张局势和政策不确定性，2020年代可能成为自"阿波罗登月"以来表现最差 的十年。 世界银行还警告，本世纪20年代前7年的全球年均经济增速预计仅为2.5%，为上世纪60年代以来最慢的 十年平均增长水平。 70%国家被下调经济增速 世界银行在最新发布的《全球经济展望》报告中，下调了近70%的国家的增长预期。 美国今年预计经济仅增长1.4%，比原预测下调了0.9个百分点。 欧元区与日本的增长经济增长率预期均为0.7%，分别下调了0.3和0.5个百分点。 世界银行在报告中警告称： "如果贸易限制升级或政策不确定性持续存在，经济增长可能会放缓，并可能导致金融压力 加剧。" 预计今年将有近60%的发展中经济体面临经济放缓，比1月份的预测下调了0.3个百分点。 低收入国家的增长率预期为5.3%，也比之前的预测下调了0.4个百分点。 其他风险还包括，主要经济体增长放缓的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings indicates that rising trade tariffs and policy uncertainty will weaken global growth prospects and exacerbate the risks of tightening financial conditions [1] Group 1: Global Economic Impact - The escalation of the global trade war and uncertainty regarding tariff outcomes pose significant negative shocks to the global economy [1] - The impact on global trade volume, supply chains, investment, and international relations is substantial [1] Group 2: Financial Environment - High levels of public finance and political risks remain prevalent [1] - The uncertainty regarding the extent and timing of price and economic activity impacts further complicates the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate path and increases volatility risks in the financial environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank has revised its global GDP growth forecast down from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating that trade disputes and policy uncertainties will hinder economic growth [1] Economic Outlook - The reduction in GDP growth expectations reflects ongoing challenges in the global economy, particularly due to escalating trade tensions and unpredictable policy environments [1] - The forecast suggests that these factors will have a significant impact on economic performance in the near term [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, which raises concerns about the overall economic outlook [1][3] - Businesses are hesitant to invest or expand due to unpredictable policy changes, while consumers face rising prices and stagnant wages, leading to more cautious spending habits [3][4] - The financial markets reacted to the news with volatility, as investors speculated on the potential for reduced corporate profitability and the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights the interconnectedness of the global economy, suggesting that developments in the U.S. economy could have broader implications for financial markets and consumer behavior worldwide [4][5] - The discussions among investors reflect a mix of strategies, with some considering whether to buy into the stock market or exchange currencies based on the evolving economic landscape [4]

首先，贸易保护主义和政策不确定性加剧，美国自2025年初大幅提高对中国产品的关税，平均有效关税 从2024年的2%升至15.4%，为1938年以来最高水平。据经合组织测算，此次美国加征关税及各国反制措 施涉及商品贸易额占全球GDP约2%，超过2018年美对中方首次贸易战时期的影响范围。报告预测，增 长放缓较为显著的包括美国、加拿大和墨西哥等经济体。2025年和2026年，美国经济预计将增长1.6% 和1.5%，较今年3月份预测值分别下调0.6个和0.1个百分点；欧元区经济预计将增长1.0%和1.2%，与3月 份预测值相同。根据"政策不确定性指数"，近期不确定性急剧上升，尤其是在未来贸易政策走向方面， 企业和消费者信心因此下降。金融环境收紧与市场波动持续造成影响，虽然金融市场已部分稳定，但整 体金融条件比2024年底更为紧张，且金融系统对冲击更为敏感，可能触发连锁反应，如非银金融机构被 迫出售资产。另外，公司债务成本特别是低评级债券的利差仍然高企，表明市场对风险资产保持高度警 惕。 其次，投资和消费动力不足弱化复苏动能。商业投资疲弱，由于不确定性上升、融资成本提高以及结构 性问题，如市场集中度上升，企业投资意愿 ...