周度报告——新能源汽车 2025 年第 18 周（2025 年 4 月 28 日至 5 月 4 日），乘用车 零售 42.0 万辆，同比增长 17.6%；新能源乘用车零售 20.3 万辆， 同比增长 38.4%；新能源渗透率为 48.4%，同比去年同期 41.2% 提高了 7.2 个百分点，环比上周 53.0%下落了 4.6 个百分点。 今年以来，乘用车累计零售 687.4 万辆，同比增长 4.0%；新 能源乘用车累计零售 334.7 万辆，同比增长 32.5%；累计新能源 渗透率为 48.7%。 能 ★ 重点新能源车企销量分析 源 与 新 材 料 车企层面来看，2025 年第 18 周，比亚迪周销量 6.5 万辆， 在乘用车市场的占有率约为 15.5%，在新能源汽车市场中占有率 约为 32.0%。其他新能源销量较高的车企包括：吉利汽车 2.2 万 辆、上汽通用五菱 1.2 万辆、长安汽车 1.1 万辆、奇瑞汽车 0.7 万辆、特斯拉（中国）销量 0.7 万辆。在新势力梯队中，理想汽 车销量约 1.1 万辆，问界销量约 0.7 万辆，零跑、小米、小鹏销 量约 0.6 万辆，蔚来销量约 0.5 万辆，埃安销量约 ...

周度报告——新能源汽车 美国汽车关税政策受压回撤 ★ 动态跟踪 行业数据跟踪方面，据乘联会发布，4 月 1-27 日全国乘用车新能 源市场零售 72.8 万辆，同比增长 24%，新能源市场零售渗透率 52.3%，今年以来累计零售 314.8 万辆，同比增长 33%；4 月 1-27 日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 84.6 万辆，同比增长 25%，新 能源厂商批发渗透率 53.9%，今年以来累计批发 369.5 万辆，同 比同期增长 38%。 新 能 源 与 新 材 料 企业端，多车企发布 4 月销量数据，比亚迪以 38 万辆的销量数 据继续稳居领先地位，吉利、零跑、小鹏等新能源销量数据抢眼。 海外市场方面，受美国汽车及零部件关税影响北美新车市场 3 月销量高增长，但关税争对汽车而非新能源汽车，因而渗透率未 出现明显变化（见图表 23-26）。压力下关税政策有所回撤，4 月 29 日发布两项行政命令，一是进口整车关税仅由 2025 年 3 月 26 日第 10908 号公告确定，不得适用其他关税（免除钢铁、铝 的单独关税，避免多项关税叠加）；二是为在美国本土生产的整 车企业提供税收抵免，部分抵消其进口零部件所面 ...

Core Insights - High-quality charging infrastructure is essential for increasing consumer purchase willingness and meeting charging demands [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China has surpassed 50% and continues to rise, necessitating proactive development of charging infrastructure [1] - The complete industrial chain in China's NEV sector supports technological innovation and enhances international competitiveness while contributing to carbon neutrality goals [1] Charging Infrastructure Characteristics - The installation of private charging piles in communities is becoming a focal point, with private charging pile ownership increasing from 232,000 in 2017 to 8.892 million by November 2024, a growth of approximately 37 times [2] - High-power charging piles are gaining more support, with over 45% of public charging piles being DC charging piles as of October 2024 [2] Rural Charging Infrastructure Development - Urban areas have high coverage of charging infrastructure, but rural areas lag behind, prompting initiatives to enhance rural charging facilities [3] - The interaction between vehicles and the grid is entering a phase of large-scale commercialization, with projects demonstrating significant energy savings [3] Challenges in Charging Infrastructure Planning - The "charging piles entering communities" initiative faces obstacles, including difficulties in installing private charging piles in densely populated areas [4] - The lack of unified charging interface standards increases the costs of large-scale deployment and complicates the establishment of shared private charging piles [5] Policy Recommendations for Charging Infrastructure Development - Establish a unified standard for charging infrastructure systems to ensure stability and safety in power supply [7] - Optimize the approval process for private charging infrastructure and promote innovative business models for shared charging piles [8] - Focus on rural areas for developing private charging infrastructure, integrating urban and rural resources [9] - Accelerate the establishment of technical standards for vehicle-grid interaction and improve pricing mechanisms [10]

周度报告——新能源汽车 雷克萨斯独资工厂落地上海 ★ 动态跟踪 行业数据跟踪方面，2025 年第 16 周（2025 年 4 月 14 日至 4 月 20 日），国内乘用车零售 38.1 万辆，同比增长 9.0%；新能源乘 用车零售 20.3 万辆，同比增长 27.9%；新能源渗透率为 53.2%。 今年以来，国内乘用车累计零售 600.5 万辆，同比增长 3.1%；新 能源乘用车累计零售 290.6 万辆，同比增长 33.0%；累计新能源 渗透率为 48.4%。4 月全月来看，乘联会预计新能源零售 90 万， 渗透率 51.4%。 新 能 企业端，雷克萨斯作为第二家外商独资车企正式落地上海金山， 工厂投资额 146 亿元，首期拿地 1,692 亩，预计于 6 月开工，初 期年产能约 10 万辆，第一台车将于 2027 年生产下线。 源 与 新 全球来看，3 月全球新能源汽车销量同比增长 33.4%达 149 万辆， 1-3 月累计同比增长 35.4%达 360 万辆。3 月全球新能源渗透率为 24.2%，环比增加 1.5 个百分点。 料 ★ 投资建议 中国新能源汽车行业发展由政策驱动转向市场驱动，23 年新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing competition between electric vehicles (EVs) and traditional fuel vehicles in the Chinese automotive market, highlighting the significant market share that fuel vehicles still hold despite the rapid growth of EVs [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles vs. Fuel Vehicles - The Shanghai Auto Show showcases a strong focus on new energy vehicles, with brands like BYD, NIO, Li Auto, and Xpeng unveiling new models, while some manufacturers continue to support fuel vehicle development [3][5]. - According to SAIC GM's general manager, fuel vehicles are expected to maintain at least 25% market share in the future [3]. Market Data and Trends - In March, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 54.1%, indicating a significant shift towards EVs [4]. - Despite the growth of EVs, fuel vehicles remain a substantial part of sales for traditional automakers, with companies like Geely, Great Wall, and Chery still relying heavily on fuel vehicle sales [6][9]. Financial Performance and Competitive Landscape - BYD's decision to stop producing fuel vehicles is backed by its strong control over the battery supply chain, leading to a projected gross margin of 21.02% in 2024, surpassing competitors like Li Auto (19.8%) and Tesla (17.9%) [7]. - Fuel vehicles still represent a significant portion of total sales for major automakers, with Geely's fuel vehicle sales projected to account for 59.19% of total sales in 2024 [9]. Global Market Strategy - Companies like Chery and Geely are focusing on international markets, with Chery's overseas sales in 2024 expected to reach 1.144 million units, of which over 80% will be fuel vehicles [14]. - The global automotive market still sees fuel vehicles as a dominant force, with 85% market share compared to 15% for new energy vehicles [17]. Policy and Industry Outlook - The Chinese government is expected to continue supporting the development of internal combustion engine technology alongside new energy vehicles, indicating a balanced approach to automotive development [13]. - The article suggests that fuel vehicles will remain relevant in the market, especially as electric vehicle technology continues to mature [17].

Core Viewpoint - CATL's 2024 annual report shows a significant decline in revenue for the first time since its IPO in 2018, with total revenue of 362 billion yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 15% to 50.7 billion yuan, indicating a challenging market environment for the company [2][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue decline is attributed to increased sales volume of lithium batteries but decreased prices, a trend seen across the industry [4]. - CATL achieved lithium-ion battery sales of 475 GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.79%, with power battery sales at 381 GWh (up 18.85%) and energy storage battery sales at 93 GWh (up 34.32%) [5]. - Despite the revenue drop, CATL's gross margin improved from 19.19% in 2023 to 24.44% in 2024, showcasing effective cost reduction strategies [11]. Group 2: Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has approached 50%, indicating a mature market [3]. - The growth rate of CATL's power batteries has significantly slowed, dropping from 107.97% in 2022 to 18.85% in 2024, suggesting the company is nearing its growth ceiling [7]. - CATL's market share in the global energy storage battery sector has declined from 43.4% in 2022 to 36.5% in 2024, highlighting increasing competition [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ability of CATL to return to revenue growth in 2025 hinges on the recovery of lithium battery prices, which are expected to remain under pressure due to supply exceeding demand [14][15]. - Projections indicate that the global lithium carbonate price may stabilize between 70,000 to 120,000 yuan per ton in 2025, with potential downward pressure on prices [16][19]. - Long-term growth concerns arise from competition as automakers begin to develop their own batteries, particularly solid-state batteries, which could challenge CATL's market dominance [23][25]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - CATL is investing in the construction of battery swap stations, with plans to build 1,000 by 2025 and a long-term goal of 30,000 stations, which could enhance its market position [29]. - The company holds significant cash reserves of 303.5 billion yuan, indicating potential for strategic investments or initiatives to bolster its competitive edge [28].

摘要 ► 本 周数据： 2025 年 3 月第 1 周（ 3.3-3.9 ）乘用车销量 35.8 万辆，同比 +16.2% ，环比 -12.1% ；新能源乘用车销量 20.2 万辆，同比 +36.2% ，环比 -7.5% ；新能源渗透率 56.5% ，环比 +2.8pct 。 ► 本周行情 ： 汽车板块本周表现强于市场 本周（3月10-14日）A股汽车板块上涨1.38%，在申万子行业中排名第19位，表现强于沪深300（+1.33%）。细分板块中，摩托车及其他、汽车服务、商用 载客车、汽车零部件、乘用车分别上涨3.75%、2.03%、1.91%、1.61%、0.90%，商用载货车下跌0.79%。 ► 本周观点： 本月建议关注核心组合【比亚迪、吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ► 乘用车基本面向上 智驾平权提振估值。 根据乘用车上险数据，2月第3/4/5周乘用车销量分别33.9/37.0/40.7万辆，新能源渗透率分别50.6%/54.8%/53.8%；3月第1周乘用车销量35.8万辆，新能 源渗透率56.5%，受益补贴政策，年后车市需求及新能源渗透率均快速恢复。分 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the new energy vehicle battery box industry, driven by increasing penetration rates and supportive national policies [1]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle battery box is a critical component of the battery pack, characterized by high customer barriers, continuous upgrades with battery integration technology, and a strong correlation with the new energy vehicle industry [1][7][10]. - The market for new energy vehicle battery boxes is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 76.59% from 2020 to 2024, increasing from 2.734 billion RMB to 26.586 billion RMB [27][28]. - The industry is transitioning towards lightweight and sustainable solutions, with innovations in battery integration technologies such as CTP and CTB expected to drive further growth [14][30]. Industry Definition - New energy vehicle battery boxes serve as the "skeleton" of the battery pack, requiring safety, protection, and sealing capabilities to ensure the normal operation of the battery system [2]. Industry Classification - The battery boxes can be classified based on battery system integration technologies into CTM, CTP, and CTC/CTB types [3][4][5][6]. Industry Characteristics - High customer barriers exist due to the need for collaboration among vehicle manufacturers, battery manufacturers, and battery box suppliers [7]. - The industry is closely linked to the new energy vehicle market, with market size directly correlated to the growth of new energy vehicles [10]. Development History - The market has evolved alongside the new energy vehicle industry, with significant growth observed post-2015 as CTP technology gained traction [11][13]. - The current phase emphasizes green and sustainable development, focusing on lightweight and environmentally friendly materials [14]. Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain consists of upstream raw materials (aluminum alloys, carbon fiber composites), midstream manufacturing, and downstream applications primarily in electric and hybrid vehicles [15][25]. - Domestic companies dominate the market, leveraging local advantages to meet customer needs effectively [16]. Market Size - The market size is projected to grow from 27.34 billion RMB in 2020 to 265.86 billion RMB by 2024, with a CAGR of 76.59% [27]. - By 2029, the market is expected to reach 583.14 billion RMB, indicating sustained growth [27]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape features a tiered structure, with leading companies like Sensata Technologies, Huayu Automotive, and New Aluminum Era holding significant market shares [36][37]. - Traditional automotive parts manufacturers have quickly entered the battery box market, leveraging existing production capabilities and customer relationships [37]. Company Overview - New Aluminum Era focuses on lightweight aluminum materials for automotive applications, holding a strong position in the market with significant R&D investments [39][41]. - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with battery box revenue constituting a growing percentage of its total income [41].