Core Viewpoint - Japan has lost its position as the world's largest creditor nation to Germany for the first time in 34 years, with its net foreign assets reaching a record 533.05 trillion yen by the end of 2024, but still falling short of Germany's 569.65 trillion yen [1][3]. Economic Data - Japan's net foreign assets increased by 12.9% from the previous year, marking the seventh consecutive year of growth and surpassing 500 trillion yen for the first time [1]. - Japan's GDP in dollar terms decreased from $5 trillion in 2023 to $4.77 trillion in 2024, dropping to fourth place globally, while Germany's GDP reached $4.8 trillion [1][3]. - As of the end of 2024, Japan's foreign asset balance was 1,659.02 trillion yen, up 11.4% year-on-year, while foreign liabilities were 1,125.97 trillion yen, a 10.7% increase [3][4]. Investment Trends - Japanese companies have increasingly focused on direct investments rather than foreign bonds, with over 40% of reinvested earnings not returning to Japan, indicating a trend towards new investments [6][8]. - The five major Japanese trading companies, favored by Warren Buffett, have a high internationalization ratio, with four of them investing over 45% outside Japan [4]. - In 2024, Japan's investment in the U.S. reached 11.7 trillion yen, accounting for nearly 40% of its total foreign investments, the highest level since 2014 [4]. Currency and Economic Challenges - The depreciation of the yen has been significant, with the exchange rate reaching 157.89 yen per dollar by the end of 2024, an 11.7% increase from the previous year [3][5]. - Japan's economy faced a contraction in the first quarter of 2024, with GDP declining by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year, attributed to weak personal consumption and external demand [5][6]. Policy and Market Reactions - The Bank of Japan is facing challenges in balancing its bond yield policies and quantitative easing, leading to supply-demand imbalances in the bond market [7][8]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal sustainability are affecting investor sentiment towards Japanese government bonds, with potential implications for future investment strategies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Mitsubishi UFJ highlights that the depreciation of the yen may still have room to continue due to the significant drop in Japanese government bond yields [1] Group 1: Currency Analysis - Analysts suggest that the depreciation of the yen is limited by the recent substantial decline in long-term Japanese government bond yields [1] - Market speculation indicates that Japan is considering adjustments to its bond issuance plans to support ultra-long-term bonds, contributing to the lower yields [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - The report notes that despite the yen's weakness, factors such as weak demand for the dollar, unpredictable trade policies from President Trump, and the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year could lead to renewed buying of the yen [1]

在08年的金融危机发生时，因为日元的表现十分坚挺，所以一度被人们当作避险货币，但近期日元一度发生贬值，日元兑美元汇率已经直逼130，可以说是 让人大跌眼镜。如果是在以前，日元贬值还会吸引大批游客到日本旅游，但疫情的肆虐让日本的观光经济受到了一定的冲击，日本人民也对该国的经济发展 感到忧心忡忡。 美联储加息带给日元的冲击 美联储的加息做法是对日元的最大冲击，因为美元加息后会让资本闻风而动，许多资本会选择抛售日元资产，转而投入美元资产的怀抱，因此日元的汇率一 直在急转直下。日本央行在得知美国加息的做法后，没有选择追随美国，而是想要通过降息的策略来保证日本本国的利率，这也导致资本大量流入美国，日 元便迎来了近二十年的最低汇率。 日元贬值的同时疫情也没好转，这极大地影响了日本人的生活，日本的许多工厂不能开工，进口产品还要支付高昂的物流费，所以很多实体店出现了倒闭情 况。之前的日本极度依赖进口产品，但是发生日元贬值这个事后进口业务有可能锐减。 美联储加息的政策一定程度上也会影响到人民币的贬值情况，不过中国对此有自己到一套应对方法，首先是央行调低了外汇存款储备金，央行根据市场情况 适度调整外汇存款准备金工具，这能起到控制 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hillhouse Capital plans to invest $1 billion to $2 billion annually in Japan and double its employee count in East Asia to capitalize on increasing transaction activities [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Hillhouse Capital has appointed Tomohiro Kikuta, a former Bain Capital partner, to lead its expansion in Japan, indicating a strategic focus on the Japanese market [2]. - The firm has approximately $6 billion available from its fifth fund, which has a total size of $20.5 billion, significantly exceeding its initial target of $13 billion [2]. - The fifth fund was launched in 2020, with $10 billion allocated for acquisitions and $3 billion for growth and venture investments [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - There has been a notable increase in M&A activities in Japan, driven by corporate governance reforms and yen depreciation, attracting global investment interest [3]. - Interest in Southeast Asian private equity funds has decreased significantly, with no funds focused on this region completing final fundraising in the first half of 2024 [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Sequoia China is also focusing on the Japanese market, having hired Komi Kyu from Bain Capital to build an investment team in Tokyo [4]. - Notable investors, including Warren Buffett, have shown interest in Japan, with Berkshire Hathaway potentially increasing its investments in Japanese trading companies [4]. Group 4: Company Operations - Hillhouse Capital has been investing in Japan since 2009 and plans to increase its local workforce from 10 to approximately 20 by the end of 2025 [5]. - The firm is transitioning to a dedicated office space in Tokyo's Marunouchi business district and is preparing for seven ongoing transactions in Japan [5]. - Hillhouse Capital, founded by Zhang Lei in 2005, is known for its hedge fund and private equity investments, with a focus on healthcare, business services, consumer goods, and advanced manufacturing in Japan [5].

Core Viewpoint - The current trend of yen appreciation is considered temporary, with expectations of long-term depreciation towards 155-160 yen per dollar due to strong dollar demand and various economic factors [1][3][5]. Group 1: Yen Market Dynamics - Speculative buying of yen has reached historical levels, with net long positions nearly at their peak, indicating significant market interest [2]. - Despite the recent rise in yen value, the appreciation is slow and primarily a correction from previous depreciation levels, with strong non-speculative selling pressures counteracting the trend [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Yen Value - Japan's digital trade deficit has expanded significantly, now exceeding 6 trillion yen annually, contributing to the demand for dollars and limiting yen appreciation [3]. - The interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. remains close to 4%, creating a cost for holding long yen positions, which could lead to rapid liquidation if expectations for yen appreciation diminish [3][4]. Group 3: Purchasing Power Parity and Future Projections - The purchasing power parity suggests a theoretical exchange rate of around 100 yen per dollar, but actual market conditions reflect a more complex scenario with differing valuations for goods and services [4]. - Historical trends indicate that as Japan's production bases have moved overseas, the path for yen appreciation has become less clear, with current depreciation viewed as reasonable under purchasing power parity theories [4][5]. Group 4: Potential for Domestic Yen Demand - There is speculation that domestic demand for yen could increase as Japanese investors seek to hedge against overseas assets, potentially supporting yen appreciation [6]. - However, the current trend of hedging against currency fluctuations is not widespread, and the prevailing sentiment suggests that the phase of significant yen depreciation may continue [7].

图片来源：红杉中国 据知情人士透露，红杉中国已从贝恩资本聘请Komi Kyu，负责领导其在日本的新办公室。 Kyu于今年1月以董事总经理身份加入红杉中国，他的任务是逐步建立一支总部位于东京的投资团 队，并探索从成长期投资到收购等多种投资机会。红杉中国计划在日本招聘多名初级投资专业人士， 以支持其在该市场的拓展。 Kyu的领英个人资料显示，在加入红杉中国之前，他在贝恩资本东京办公室工作近十年，从分析师一 路晋升至董事总经理。 针对相关询问，HSG和贝恩资本均拒绝置评，而Kyu本人亦未回应路透社的置评请求。 近年来，受公司治理改革和日元贬值的推动，日本的并购交易活动大幅上升，吸引了众多全球及区域 投资机构的关注。 LSEG数据显示，2023年，日本市场的私募股权支持交易总额创下350亿美元的历史新高。虽然中国历 来是亚洲最大的交易市场，但自2022年以来，日本市场每年进行的私募股权支持并购交易数量已超过 中国。 包括凯雷和华平投资在内的全球投资机构，正不断扩充其在日本的团队，以应对日益增长的交易需 求。此外，2024年，区域同行高瓴资本和源峰资本也首次进入日本市场，进行了相关招聘和投资。 红杉中国以在中国投资科技 ...