日本央行本月加息几率大增。 12月4日，路透社引述三位熟悉决策内情的政府人士报道，日本政府可能会默许日本央行本月调升利 率。 消息人士透露，日本央行几乎确定会将政策利率从0.5%调升至0.75%。这也是日本央行行长植田和男在 周一(1日)谈话中所暗示的水平。据悉，日本央行将于12月18日至19日召开货币政策会议，届时或将实 现今年1月以来的首度加息。 释放明确加息信号 植田和男补充道，经济展望实现的可能性正在上升，即使政策利率上调，金融环境仍将保持宽松。 植田和男还罕见提及与首相高市早苗的沟通顺利，暗示政府已默许紧缩政策以稳定通货膨胀。他 说："自上个月以来，我与首相及经济产业大臣通过面对面会议进行了坦诚且富有成效的讨论，我计划 继续与政府保持密切沟通。" 高市早苗向来被视为更重视货币宽松的政治人物，她的执政联盟部分成员及经济顾问此前还建议，日本 央行最好等到明年1月再行动，避免政府在11月刚推出疫情后最大规模财政刺激方案后，立即收紧货币 政策，从而传递"前脚扩张财政，后脚马上收紧银根"的混乱信号。 自10月21日高市早苗就任以来，如何化解来自政治层面的阻力，一直是植田和男推动加息的主要难点。 此前，高市早苗 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America predicts that the Japanese yen will continue to depreciate through 2026 due to a loose monetary policy environment and fiscal risks [1][2]. Exchange Rate Predictions - Strategist Shusuke Yamada expects the USD/JPY exchange rate to exceed 160 in early 2026 and stabilize at 155 by the end of the year [1][2]. - The EUR/JPY exchange rate is anticipated to rise further to 190 in the first half of 2026 [1][2]. Investment Trends - Bank of America suggests that Japanese households should continue to shift their structural investments towards overseas stocks, accompanied by yen selling [1][2]. - Corporate foreign investments remain strong despite the yen's depreciation [1][2]. Impact of Federal Reserve Policies - Although Federal Reserve policies may influence the yen, a rate cut does not necessarily imply a strengthening of the yen [1][2]. - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates while economic growth remains robust and inflation exceeds target levels, risk assets are likely to benefit, and potential weakness in the dollar against high beta currencies may not significantly impact the USD/JPY exchange rate [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is signaling a potential interest rate hike in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, which has led to immediate market reactions, including a strengthening of the yen and rising long-term bond yields [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The consumer price index in Japan rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, exceeding the Bank of Japan's inflation target of 2% for over three years [3]. - The Bank of Japan has revised its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, predicting increases of 1.8% and 2.0% respectively, indicating a realistic path to achieving its inflation target [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement from the Bank of Japan's governor, the yen appreciated from approximately 157 yen per dollar to 155 yen, and long-term government bond yields increased to 1.85% [1]. - Over 60% of market participants anticipated a clear signal regarding interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, suggesting that a decision not to raise rates could lead to a significant depreciation of the yen [2]. Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The Bank of Japan refrained from raising interest rates in October due to political pressures, as the new Prime Minister advocated for active fiscal policies and opposed abandoning loose monetary policies [4]. - The current economic environment in Japan is characterized by stagnation and persistent inflation, complicating the Bank of Japan's decision-making regarding interest rate adjustments [5]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The potential interest rate hike is viewed as a monetary policy adjustment rather than a tightening, as Japan's real interest rates remain low [5]. - The actual decision to raise rates in December will depend on market reactions and the broader economic environment, including the performance of the yen and long-term bond yields [5].

报道称，问题在于，日本央行再次加息的决定能否终结日元贬值。如果加息步伐保持稳健，且考虑通胀 因素的实际利率仍为负值，那么日元贬值不太可能得到全面纠正。 11月下旬，彭博社和路透社接连发表了题为"抛售日本"的文章，提及日本的财政困境。日本政府的债务 规模目前已超国内生产总值（GDP）的200%，在发达国家中最为严重。 报道称，尽管日本面临日元疲软和通胀，但日本高市政府一直倡导"积极的财政政策"，日本央行也维持 着低利率。虽然日本央行终于再次开始加息，但看不到这与政府积极财政政策之间的一致性。人们期待 日本政府能够谨慎地向外界传递其在追求经济增长的同时兼顾财政可持续性的立场。 报道称，受影响的不仅仅是股市。长期利率上升的趋势也从日本蔓延至美国、德国和其他国家。 加密货币也出现震荡。据"比特币柜台"网站报道，比特币价格在上周末突破9万美元后于1日暴跌至约 8.4万美元。 与此同时，外汇市场上，日元对美元汇率从上周末的156日元区间一度升至154日元区间。最初的反应很 简单，市场预期日本央行加息和美联储降息将缩小日美之间的利差。 "都给我闭嘴！把钱都投到我这儿来！"在12月1日东京举行的国际投资会议上，日本首相高市早 ...

Group 1 - Japan's stock market faced a significant decline, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 2% to 49,224.94 points, and closing down 1.89% at 49,303.28 points [1][2] - Japanese government bonds plummeted due to renewed expectations of interest rate hikes, with the 2-year bond yield surpassing 1% for the first time since 2008, and the 10-year yield rising to 1.85%, marking the highest levels since June 2008 [1][2] - The probability of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in December increased to 64%, as Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a potential adjustment to the monetary policy [2] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency market continued to decline, with Bitcoin falling to around $86,000, down 5.34%, and Ethereum dropping over 5%, while other cryptocurrencies like Solana and Dogecoin fell more than 7% [2] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 210,000 individuals in the cryptocurrency market faced liquidation, totaling approximately $639 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, stated that the recent depreciation of the yen is not driven by fundamental factors, indicating potential intervention in the foreign exchange market to address excessive volatility and speculative movements [1] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The yen has experienced significant depreciation recently, which has raised concerns in the foreign exchange market [1] - The Finance Minister emphasized the need to monitor and potentially intervene in the currency market to stabilize the yen [1] Group 2: Central Bank Insights - Market participants are closely watching the upcoming speech from the Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, for any signals regarding a possible interest rate hike in the December meeting [1] - The statement aligns with the joint declaration made in September by Japan and the U.S., which asserted that exchange rates should be determined by market forces [1]

Group 1 - The core concern is the accelerated depreciation of the Japanese yen, which is now driven by fiscal deterioration rather than a strong US dollar, prompting heightened vigilance from the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan [1][4] - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar has approached historical lows, with the rate nearing 158 yen per dollar, raising concerns about inflation driven by rising import prices [1][3] - The current situation contrasts sharply with a similar depreciation observed in late 2024, where the government and central bank did not intervene, leading to a subsequent appreciation of the yen [1][3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's response to the yen's depreciation is notably more cautious this time, with Governor Ueda emphasizing the stability of import price increases compared to previous years [3][4] - Despite the yen's depreciation, there are no signs of overheating in domestic prices, which remain in a negative growth trend, indicating a complex economic landscape [4][5] - The current depreciation is attributed to the fiscal policies of the Kishida administration, which has raised concerns about potential consumer price increases and economic stagnation [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming mid-December monetary policy meetings between Japan and the US are seen as critical in determining the future trajectory of the yen, with market sentiment and potential interventions being closely monitored [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing accelerated depreciation, raising concerns from the government and the Bank of Japan, primarily due to fiscal deterioration rather than a strong US dollar [2][8]. Group 1: Current Situation of Yen Depreciation - The yen's exchange rate against the US dollar is nearing historical lows, with rates approaching 158 yen per dollar, indicating significant depreciation pressure as the year-end approaches [2]. - The current depreciation is contrasted with a similar situation a year ago, where the yen also depreciated but without intervention from the government or the Bank of Japan [4]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Response - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Kazuo Ueda, has expressed strong vigilance regarding the yen's depreciation, emphasizing the stability of import prices compared to previous years [6][8]. - The government has indicated a willingness to intervene in the currency market if the yen continues to depreciate rapidly, reflecting a shift in their stance compared to the previous year [9]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The current depreciation is pushing up import prices, which in turn is affecting domestic consumer prices, a situation that the government aims to avoid to prevent economic stagnation [8]. - Unlike last year, where the depreciation was primarily driven by a strong dollar, the current situation is attributed to the government's aggressive fiscal policies, raising concerns about potential inflation [8][10].

日本东京都23区11月核心CPI同比上涨2.8% 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 由于日本首相高市早苗坚持实施扩张型财政政策和宽松货币政策，日本国内媒体和专家普遍担忧这一政 策组合将加剧日元贬值，进一步推高日本物价上涨压力。 中新网东京11月28日电 (记者 朱晨曦)日本总务省28日公布的统计数据显示，11月份日本东京都23区去 除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数(CPI)为111.4，同比上涨2.8%。 东京都23区CPI数据是日本全国CPI的先行指标，11月份的日本全国CPI将于12月19日公布。(完) 数据显示，当月，去除生鲜食品以外的食品价格同比上涨6.5%。其中，普通粳米价格同比涨幅达 38.5%；寿司价格同比上涨14.5%；日本民众日常食谱中常见的饭团价格同比上涨17.3%；巧克力价格同 比上涨32.5%；咖啡豆价格同比上涨63.4%；鸡肉价格同比上涨12.3%。 来源：中国新闻网 数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate continues to show a strong oscillating pattern, influenced by both internal economic pressures in Japan and external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][2]. Internal Factors - Japan's economic fundamentals are under pressure, with Q3 GDP declining at an annualized rate of 1.8%, marking a return to negative growth after six quarters. Key contributors to this decline include shrinking exports and a significant drop in private residential investment [1]. - The Japanese government's economic stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen raises concerns about potential fiscal deterioration, leading to a "sell Japan" trade sentiment that pressures both the yen and Japanese government bonds [1]. - The Bank of Japan's cautious approach to normalizing monetary policy is evident, with ongoing political pressures causing market concerns about the pace of interest rate hikes [1]. External Factors - Market expectations indicate an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, contributing to a relatively stable USD/JPY interest rate differential [2]. - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Fed initiates a series of rate cuts, the USD/JPY could depreciate by nearly 10% over the next few months, potentially reaching the 140 level by Q1 2026 [2]. - The recent weakness of the yen has drawn significant attention from Japanese authorities, with Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki mentioning the possibility of intervention, and the Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister emphasizing close monitoring of speculative currency behavior [2]. Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY is currently trading within a critical range of 156-157, with resistance near the 160 intervention level and support around 155.80 [3]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at approximately 58, indicating that there is still potential for upward movement, although momentum appears to be waning [3]. - Key signals to watch include potential currency market intervention by Japanese authorities and the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's December policy decision and the Bank of Japan's rate meeting on December 19 [3].