行 业 报 告 行业点评 证券分析师 | 王德安 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060511010006 | | | BQV509 | | | WANGDEAN002@pingan.com.cn | | 王跟海 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523080001 | | | BVG944 | | | WANGGENHAI964@pingan.com.cn | 2026 年汽车以旧换新政策更加倾向中高端市场 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 汽车 2025 年 12 月 31 日 事项： 国家发展改革委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧 换新政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），明确 2026 年"两新政策"的支持范围、 补贴标准和工作要求。在资金方面，2026 年直接向地方安排的消费品以旧换新 资金继续按照 9：1 的原则实习央地共担，此外国家已于近日向地方提前下达 2026 年第一批 625 亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新资金计划，满足元 旦、春节等旺季消费需求。 平安观点： 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 2026 年汽车补 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is experiencing a significant rise, driven by positive policy signals and market dynamics, despite facing challenges in the near term due to subsidy reductions and seasonal pressures [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xpeng Motors (09868) increased by 6.18%, reaching HKD 80.75 - Leap Motor (09863) rose by 5.33%, reaching HKD 52.6 - BYD (002594) shares climbed by 4.75%, priced at HKD 98.05 - Geely Automobile (00175) saw a 4.79% increase, trading at HKD 17.71 [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - The Central Economic Work Conference and the Ministry of Finance have clarified the optimization of the "two new" policies, with multiple regions selecting enterprises for vehicle replacement programs [1] - Reports indicate that national subsidies will continue until 2026, with a maximum subsidy of 30,000 yuan per vehicle, focusing on phasing out old high-emission vehicles while enhancing subsidies for new energy vehicles and increasing the pure electric range requirements for hybrid models [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The absence of tail effects from the withdrawal of replacement subsidies, combined with the gradual reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax exemptions starting in 2026, is expected to increase pressure on the automotive market in Q1 2026 [1] - Positive signals from the policy front are ongoing, with the National Market Supervision Administration releasing compliance guidelines for automotive pricing behavior, leading to a more stable competitive environment as companies like BYD and Xpeng respond positively [1] - Some cities have begun deploying new national subsidy-related work, suggesting that the industry may soon see the implementation of detailed policies and supportive measures, highlighting the bottom-line value of leading automotive companies and the potential for policy-driven market improvements [1]

中央定调明年继续实施"国补"后，多地已开始部署2026年"新国补"。 近日闭幕的中央经济工作会议，在部署明年经济工作重点任务时明确指出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国 内市场，并要求优化"两新"（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策实施。财政部党组书记、部长蓝 佛安日前主持召开党组会议时也明确指出，支持优化"两新"政策实施，用好个人消费贷款和服务业经营 主体贷款"双贴息"政策，大力支持实施提振消费专项行动。 第一财经记者统计显示，目前已有超过5个地市公开遴选以旧换新平台服务企业，包括深圳市、阳江 市、韶关市、宁波市等。对于企业的要求聚焦在核验申请人实名能力、防黄牛防刷单的风控能力、数据 运营和平台维护能力、服务响应能力等。值得关注的是，深圳发布的通知明确，是遴选2026年汽车以旧 换新补贴平台服务企业。换句话说，2026年汽车以旧换新政策有望延续。 2026年"新国补"将严控黄牛代抢等乱象。 国补入选企业需强化风控 多个地市的遴选公告中均明确提到，入选企业需要有效处理"黄牛党"、刷单、恶意注册等行为，防范虚 构信息领券、套现等不法行为发生。这一风险防范要求的背后，是过去汽车以旧换新在具体执行中出现 了不少"乱象"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to stimulate short-term demand while shifting the market focus from policy-driven to value-driven in the long term [2][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - Starting January 1, the purchase tax exemption for NEVs will be halved, reducing the maximum tax exemption from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan per vehicle [2]. - In November, NEV production and sales reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million units, respectively, with NEVs accounting for 53.2% of total new car sales, indicating a growing market share [2]. - Experts predict a "last train effect" before the tax policy change, leading to a surge in NEV purchases [2]. Group 2: Recommendations for Automotive Companies - Companies should leverage policies effectively to promote higher technology, energy efficiency, and intelligent consumption [3]. - There is a need for improved cost control and product quality, as the new tax policy ties tax benefits to technical standards, prompting industry consolidation and quality upgrades [3]. - Companies are encouraged to align product offerings with consumer demand, particularly in the smart and connected vehicle segment, which is identified as a key growth area [3]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Charging Infrastructure - Consumers are expected to become more rational, focusing on product quality, technical performance, and service experience rather than solely on policy incentives [4]. - Charging infrastructure is critical for consumer confidence, with the government aiming to double the service capacity of charging facilities by 2027, targeting 28 million charging points and over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity [5]. - The automotive aftermarket is also highlighted as a vital area for expanding consumption, with initiatives to enhance the second-hand car market and other automotive services [5].

Group 1 - Societe Generale has closed its short position on 10-year U.S. Treasuries after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, realizing profits from a trade initiated at a yield of 4.09% and closed at 4.15% [1] - Fitch Ratings expects the U.S. leveraged loan default rate to decline by 2026, predicting it will range between 4.5% and 5.0%, while high-yield bond defaults are expected to be between 2.5% and 3.0% [1] - Scotiabank believes the U.S. dollar bear market has just begun, forecasting a continued weakening of the dollar until 2026 and 2027 due to divergent central bank policies [1] Group 2 - Nomura forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate will weaken in 2026, with target prices of 155.00 in Q1, 150.00 in Q2, 145.00 in Q3, and 140.00 in Q4, influenced by domestic political pressure and narrowing interest rate differentials [2] - Jefferies sees strong appeal in the Japanese stock market before 2026, expecting a 13% increase in the Topix index driven by corporate reforms and political leadership [3] - ING suggests that while the euro is nearing a two-month high against the dollar, betting on European Central Bank rate hikes may be premature, with potential for the EUR/USD to rise to 1.18 by year-end [3] Group 3 - CICC indicates that the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes quality and efficiency in China's economic policies, with a focus on addressing consumer, investment, and real estate concerns [5] - Dongfang Jincheng anticipates continued relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in 2026, aiming to stabilize the real estate market through various policy measures [5] - CITIC Securities expects new measures to address operational debt risks of financing platforms, indicating a broader approach to managing local government debt [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry continues to experience significant growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with production and sales increasing by over 30% year-on-year from January to October 2023 [1][2] - In October, NEV sales surpassed 50% of total new car sales for the first time, indicating a strong market shift towards electric vehicles [1] - The total automotive production and sales in China reached 27.69 million units, with NEVs accounting for 1.30 million units produced and 1.29 million units sold, reflecting growth rates of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [1] Industry Developments - The Chinese government is set to adjust the NEV purchase tax from full exemption to a 50% reduction starting January 1, 2026, with a maximum tax reduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [2] - In response to this upcoming change, car manufacturers are launching tax incentive programs to ensure consumers purchasing vehicles before the end of November can still benefit from full tax exemptions [2] - The "trade-in" policy has significantly influenced consumer behavior, with 60% of consumers opting for NEVs when applying for trade-in subsidies, thereby facilitating a transition to greener vehicles [2] Market Impact - The trade-in policy is expected to result in over 12 million subsidy applications by the end of the year, potentially driving new car sales close to 1.7 trillion yuan [2]

Group 1: Policy Adjustments and Market Trends - Hubei Province announced adjustments to the 2025 automobile trade-in subsidy policy, suspending the scrap update subsidy and optimizing the issuance of qualification vouchers to better meet consumer demand and promote healthy development of the automotive market [1] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that from January to October, China's automobile production and sales reached 27.69 million units, with a year-on-year growth of over 10%. Notably, in October, new energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% of total new car sales for the first time, reaching 51.6% [1][2] - The implementation of the national trade-in policy has shown significant effects, with market order improving and price competition becoming more rational, as new car launches are breaking previous price limits rather than simply reducing prices [3] Group 2: Corporate Developments - John Roth will take over as the new president of General Motors China starting December 1, succeeding Steve Hill, who will assume a new role as Senior Vice President of Global Export and Retail Innovation [5][6] - The leadership change at General Motors aims to support the ongoing recovery of the Chinese market and promote growth in global exports [6] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Black Sesame Intelligence announced that its flagship product, the Huashan A1000 chip, has been successfully integrated into Desay SV's new low-speed unmanned vehicle, enhancing the safety of logistics operations [4]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry has shown significant growth in October, with production and sales reaching 3.359 million and 3.322 million units respectively, marking a month-on-month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year-on-year increase of 12.1% and 8.8% [1] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) anticipates that total automotive production and sales will reach 34 million units for the year, setting a new historical record [1] - The growth in the automotive sector is attributed to the "two new" policies, which have positively impacted the market, alongside a steady pace of production and the launch of new models [1] Industry Performance - From January to October, the automotive production and sales totaled 27.692 million and 27.687 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13.2% and 12.4% [2] - The production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) during the same period reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million units, with year-on-year growth of 33.1% and 32.7% [2] - NEVs accounted for 46.7% of total new vehicle sales, indicating a strong market presence [2] Future Outlook - Despite a noticeable contraction in local "two new" policies towards the end of the year, there are positive signals from the 20th National Congress and the Central Committee's recommendations for boosting consumption [2] - The automotive industry is advocating for the continuation and optimization of relevant policies to stabilize market expectations and support steady industry operations in the coming year [2]

Group 1 - Multiple automakers reported strong sales performance in October, driven by the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to exceed 16 million units in 2025, with the used car replacement policy significantly boosting the market [1][7] - New force brands like Leap Motor, Xpeng Motors, and NIO achieved record monthly deliveries, with Leap Motor delivering 70,289 units, a year-on-year increase of over 84% [2] Group 2 - Xpeng Motors delivered 42,013 units in October, marking a 76% year-on-year increase and entering several international markets [2] - NIO's deliveries reached 40,397 units, a 92.6% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from its various brands [2] - Xiaomi Motors also surpassed 40,000 units in deliveries, while Li Auto's deliveries decreased slightly [3] Group 3 - Traditional automakers showed strong performance in the NEV sector, with BYD reporting 441,706 NEV sales in October, a 12% year-on-year decline [4] - SAIC Group's sales reached 453,978 units, with NEV sales growing by 31.6% year-on-year [4] - Chery Group's NEV sales exceeded 110,000 units for the first time, reflecting a 54.7% year-on-year increase [4] Group 4 - Industry experts noted that traditional automakers are leveraging their manufacturing scale and brand reputation to excel in the NEV market [5] - The market is expected to remain strong post the peak season, with various automakers launching new promotional activities [6] - The automotive market is anticipated to exceed initial production and sales forecasts, with a projected total of 32.9 million vehicles for the year [7]

Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing strong sales performance in October, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, with several companies reporting significant delivery numbers for new energy vehicles [1][2][3] Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Performance - Leap Motor achieved a record monthly delivery of 70,289 units in October, marking a year-on-year increase of over 84% [1] - XPeng Motors delivered 42,013 vehicles in October, a 76% year-on-year increase, and is expanding into international markets [2] - NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles in October, a 92.6% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from its various brands [2] - Xiaomi Motors also surpassed 40,000 deliveries in October, while Li Auto's deliveries decreased [2] Group 2: Traditional Automakers' Performance - BYD reported 441,706 new energy vehicle sales in October, a 12% year-on-year decline, but with a month-on-month increase [3] - SAIC Group's total vehicle sales reached 453,978 units in October, a 12.96% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle sales up 31.6% [3] - Chery Group's October sales reached 281,161 units, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 54.7% [3] - BAIC New Energy sold 30,542 units in October, a 112% year-on-year increase [3] Group 3: Market Outlook and Trends - Experts predict that the automotive market's overall performance will exceed expectations, with new energy vehicle sales expected to surpass 16 million units [4] - The implementation of the vehicle trade-in policy is expected to significantly boost market demand [4] - The automotive industry is witnessing a shift towards new energy vehicles, with projections indicating that they will become the mainstream product in the market within the next 5-15 years [4]