4月29日，前美联储副主席、债券巨头Pimco全球经济顾问理查德·克拉里达（Richard Clarida）在英国 《金融时报》发表题为《广场协议和卢浮宫协议的真正教训（The real lessons from the Plaza and Louvre accords）》的专栏文章，对1985年广场协议和1987年卢浮宫协议进行了深入剖析，并"纠正"了长期以来 人们对这两项协议成功因素的普遍认知。 Clarida表示，大家普遍认为1985年的广场协议和1987年的卢浮宫协议之所以成功，主要是靠各国联合出 手干预外汇市场，这才让当时过分强势的美元贬值，也缩小了美国的巨额贸易逆差。 但他认为，这其实是个"神话"，或者说，是个流传甚广的误解。 Clarida强调，真正起决定性作用的，其实是当时美国国内的货币政策和财政政策调整。 从事后看，这两个协议确实达到了目标：到1987年，美元确实有序贬值了；到1989年，美国贸易逆差占 GDP的比重也减少了三分之二。 文章指出，而正是因为这个结果，很多人，甚至一些专业人士都觉得，是各国央行联手在外汇市场上买 卖美元（也就是所谓的"干预"），才促成了美元贬值和贸易平衡。 Cl ...

"海湖庄园协议"构想遭遇现实挑战，操刀者Miran被华尔街巨头们驳到"语无伦次"。 据媒体报道，上周五特朗普的首席经济顾问Stephen Miran在白宫与顶级对冲基金和主要投资者代表会面，试图平息市场担忧，但效果并不理想。 报道指出，会议由花旗集团召集，恰逢IMF春季会议期间。会议参与者包括Balyasny、Tudor和Citadel等对冲基金，以及PGIM和贝莱德等资产管理 公司的代表。然而，这些金融巨头对Miran的表现并不满意，两名与会者形容他关于关税和市场的言论语无伦次，其中一人甚至表示Miran"能力 不足"。 Miran收到提问后不知所措，当你面对一群知识渊博的听众时，那些官方套话很快就被拆穿了。 在加入特朗普政府前，Miran曾撰文《重组全球贸易体系的用户指南》，鼓吹所谓"海湖庄园协议"的优点，主张让全球市场更紧密围绕美国贸易和 地缘政治利益运转。协议的核心内容不仅涉及关税战略，美元贬值，还可能涉及债务重组、主权财富基金的建立、国防支出的重新分配等措施。 不过从现实角度来看，特朗普4月2日宣布的所谓对等关税，引发美国股票和债券市场的剧烈波动。虽然特朗普随后暂停了这些关税90天，美国10 年期国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline of the US dollar index, dropping below 98 for the first time in three years, is primarily driven by investor concerns over US trade policy uncertainty and expectations of a weakening economy [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The US dollar index fell approximately 10% year-to-date, with a notable drop below the 99 mark and reaching a low of 98.12 [1]. - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed an unexpected decline, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1]. Trade Policy Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policies are impacting economic outlook, contributing to fears of a recession and diminishing confidence in the dollar [1][5]. - Analysts suggest that ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty could lead to a further decline in the dollar index, potentially reaching 95 if conditions do not improve [5]. Market Reactions - Non-US currencies have shown strength against the dollar, with the Japanese yen surpassing 141 and the euro breaking the 1.15 mark [4]. - The market is reacting to political risks associated with the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly following Trump's threats to dismiss Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2]. Future Considerations - The potential implementation of the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to devalue the dollar and restructure US debt, poses risks to the stability of US financial markets [6][7]. - Analysts express skepticism about the feasibility of the agreement, citing challenges in international cooperation and the potential negative impact on US Treasury stability [7][8].

Economic Analysis - The U.S. has consistently maintained a trade deficit, averaging $73.79 billion annually from 1973 until China's WTO accession, with manufacturing contributing only 0.58% to annual GDP growth during that period[3] - In 2022, U.S. manufacturing GDP grew by 11.45%, yet the trade deficit exceeded $1 trillion for the first time[3] - During the global economic boom from 2004 to 2007, the U.S. trade deficit expanded by 40.1% as global GDP growth averaged 4.33%[3] Policy Implications - The goals of maintaining the dollar's global currency status while reducing the trade deficit are inherently contradictory, as seen in historical agreements like the Plaza Accord[3] - The return of manufacturing to the U.S. will not resolve the trade deficit issue, indicating a complex economic landscape for policymakers[3] Market Indicators - The rising gold prices may reflect market anticipations regarding the challenges faced by the Trump administration in achieving multiple economic objectives[3] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacting major economies' monetary policies[3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 from $3100 to $3300 per ounce, with a revised forecast range of $3250 to $3520 per ounce, driven by unexpected ETF inflows and central bank gold purchases [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices recently surpassed $3000 per ounce, influenced by potential U.S. tariffs on the EU and media attention on the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," leading to a rebound in speculative positions [3][4]. - The recent strong ETF inflows indicate increased investor demand for safe-haven assets, which is expected to support higher gold prices [3][7]. - In extreme risk scenarios, gold prices could exceed $4200 per ounce, with mid-term price risks skewed to the upside [3][23]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Goldman Sachs has increased its monthly central bank gold purchase assumption from 50 tons to 70 tons, significantly above the pre-2022 average of 17 tons [7][8]. - Emerging market central banks have increased gold purchases by approximately five times since the freezing of Russian central bank assets, a trend expected to continue over the next three years [10][16]. - The average gold reserve ratio for emerging market central banks is significantly lower than that of developed markets, indicating room for growth [11]. Group 3: China’s Role - If the People's Bank of China raises its gold reserve ratio to 20%, it would require approximately three years at a purchase rate of 40 tons per month [12]. - The recent allowance for Chinese insurance companies to invest 1% of their assets in gold is expected to support gold prices, although significant inflows may not occur until a price correction [20][21]. Group 4: Market Risks and Opportunities - The potential for U.S. tariffs on gold is considered low, as it would not significantly advance U.S. industrial policy goals and could complicate financial markets [22]. - The possibility of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement may lead to temporary speculative selling but is unlikely to have a lasting impact on global gold demand [14][24]. - Upward risks to the gold price forecast include increased central bank purchases and a potential shift in ETF demand if the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [23].

周末闲聊，想哪到哪啊。 昨天有不少读者看中了文末提到的4%活期利率，但这个不是墙内人民币的理财产品，是离岸美元的理财产品，我在文章里提到的老虎证券、富途证券、 盈透证券，包括之前的利弗莫尔都是境外券商。 你如果有外汇美元的话，4%收益没什么稀罕的，10年期美国国债收益率最新是4.3%，这些券商只是把国债收益给产品化，集成到了活期理财里。 然后就是有读者提出肉身去香港开离岸银行户，开离岸证券户。我可以确认开离岸银行户是肯定没问题的，至于离岸证券户几个中资券商不行，他们会拒 绝大陆过来的kyc，但我听说有好几个外资券商可以，至于是哪几个我唔知啊，你们开银行户的时候顺便问工作人员咯，这种上下游关联业务的多半有推 荐。 还有读者说让我多讲讲香港见闻，觉得蛮有趣的，其实我也只是匆匆的游客，没有深度体验香港本地生活。因为曾经上百年被英国统辖，那里确实和国内 城市很不一样。 普通人去那里感受最显著的差异就是消费贵，我之前提出过一个4倍理论，就是大部分香港物价除以4，就约等于国内。比如香港打工人月薪大都在20000- 30000区间，除以4就是国内的5000-7500，其它衣食住行等消费也差不多是这个比例。 比如我朋友他家每 ...

(图片由豆包AI生成 关键词 暴风雨中的城市) 本周， 全球金融市场见证了一系列具有划时代意义的事件。 美国贸易战正式"开打"，但整个过程却没有之前外界预料般的猛烈；欧洲历史性转变，在出台天量刺激的同时，"伦敦协议"闪亮登场；中国科技历史性破局 还在继续，阿里发布媲美DeepSeek R1性能的开源模型，成本仅1/10。 在瑞银看来，随着欧洲朝着军事独立于美国的方向迈进， "海湖庄园协议"正让位于"伦敦协议"。 如果欧洲国家指示目前流向高回报美国资产的大量储蓄转向支持本土国防和基础设施资产，那么欧元区储蓄盈余流向美国的趋势可能会减弱，欧元美元汇率 可能会结构性走高， 欧元最终可能崛起为一种替代储备资产，与美元展开竞争。欧洲国家则可能进一步加强经济一体化，推动全球经济格局的多极化发 展。 历史性的贸易战 据央视报道，当地时间3月3日本周一，美国总统特朗普表示，美国对墨西哥和加拿大商品征收25%的关税将于3月4日生效。对等关税将于4月2日开始征 收。 但在美股经历周一巨震后， 商务部长卢特尼克4日出来"灭火" ，其表示特朗普可能会在关税问题上与墨西哥和加拿大达成某种折中的方案，如果遵守"美国- 墨西哥-加拿大协定 ...

当地时间周五， 美股开盘涨跌不一，标普500指数跌0.05%。戴尔科技跌超6%，第四季度营收逊于预期。英伟达跌逾2%。 多个指标显示，美国投 资者的恐慌情绪升至历史高点。 此外，一则有关美国政府将对金融市场进行重大改革的传闻，让市场不确定性再次提升。 恐慌指标不乐观 BespokeInvestmentGroup的分析师在周四的一份报告中指出："市场情绪发生了什么变化？无论从哪个角度来看，恐慌情绪都已渗透到投资者的集体心理。"该 机构列举了多项反映市场恐慌情绪上升的指标，显示出投资者信心的明显恶化。 在经济前景方面，经济不确定性指数（EconomicPolicyUncertainty，EPU）已超过新冠疫情最严重时期的水平。 该指数主要通过分析新闻报道、政府声明、 政策变动频率等因素来反映政策的不确定性。指数由美国学者ScottR. Baker、NicholasBloom和StevenJ.Davis于2016年提出，旨在量化由于政策变化带来的不 确定性对经济活动的影响。EPU指数通常与宏观经济变量如投资、消费、就业等存在显著的负相关关系，表示政策不确定性增大时，企业和消费者往往会表 现出谨慎行为，影响经济增长。 ...