Core Viewpoint - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is diminishing due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs between the U.S. and China, but it is expected to retain its appeal amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Economic and Monetary Policy Risks - A significant risk facing the economy is the U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially in light of ongoing pressure from the Trump administration [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained a neutral policy stance this year, with no immediate plans to lower interest rates despite stable inflation risks [1] - If the independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, gold may perform well as it is seen as a counter to potentially manipulated fiat currencies [2] Group 2: Gold Price Predictions - Current gold trading prices are significantly below last month's historical high of $3,500 per ounce, but a new support level and record prices are anticipated [2] - The baseline price forecast for gold is projected at $3,610 per ounce by Q1 2026, with an optimistic scenario suggesting it could reach $4,000 per ounce [2] - The demand for gold is expected to remain high due to rising recession and inflation risks, with historical price increases indicating that a rise to $4,000 per ounce is plausible [2] Group 3: U.S. Credibility Issues - The U.S. faces significant credibility issues as a reliable trading partner, even if the global trade war is resolved [2] - The potential implementation of the "Sea Lake Manor Agreement" could lead to a 20% depreciation of the dollar, further increasing inflation beyond optimistic expectations [3] Group 4: Downside Risks and Strategic Asset Status - While there are some downside risks to gold prices, any declines are expected to be limited due to the current environment of uncertainty [4] - Gold is still viewed as a necessary strategic asset, providing a level of protection for investors amid various uncertainties [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the irreversible logic behind the restructuring of the global order and the new investment paradigm, driven by unconventional policies from the Trump administration to address global supply and demand imbalances [3][4][14]. Group 1: Globalization and G2 Imbalances - The globalization process has intensified the trade, production, and debt imbalances between the G2 nations, with the U.S. positioned as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13]. - Since China's accession to the WTO in 2001, the U.S. has increasingly relied on debt expansion to create demand, leading to continuous trade deficits and external debt accumulation, while China has maintained a trade surplus through its manufacturing capabilities [9][13]. - As major economies move away from high growth, the importance of "efficiency" is yielding to "distribution," indicating a long-term trend towards increased de-globalization [9][13]. Group 2: Restructuring Global Order - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aims to reshape global trade and monetary order through tariffs and the restructuring of U.S. debt, addressing long-standing trade and fiscal deficits while enhancing U.S. export competitiveness [4][11][23]. - Although the full implementation of the Mar-a-Lago Agreement faces significant challenges, understanding its implications is crucial for anticipating future policy directions from the Trump administration [4][11][23]. Group 3: New Investment Paradigm - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury yields remaining "higher for longer," Chinese bond yields remaining "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][25]. - The ongoing trend of de-globalization and isolationist policies under Trump will exacerbate uncertainties in global economic growth and inflation, reinforcing the underlying logic of the new investment paradigm [5][12][25]. - The elevation of the global risk premium will significantly affect the correlation between major asset classes and increase the volatility of global assets, fundamentally altering the existing global asset allocation framework [5][12][25][33].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the restructuring of the global order is an irreversible underlying logic, driven by unconventional methods to address the current global supply and demand imbalance [3][4][14] - It highlights the increasing imbalance in trade, production, and debt between the G2 countries, with the U.S. as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13] - The article discusses the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to reshape global trade and monetary order to alleviate the U.S.'s long-standing current account and fiscal deficits [11][23] Group 2 - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury rates being "higher for longer," Chinese bond rates being "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][32] - The article suggests that the ongoing trend of de-globalization will significantly disrupt the existing global asset allocation framework [9][13][33] - It notes that the U.S. reliance on debt expansion has led to continuous current account deficits and manufacturing hollowing out, while China benefits from a persistent trade surplus [9][13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations of the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) reflect broader trends in Asian currencies, influenced by a potential "Plaza Accord 2.0" and a shift in global capital allocation due to the declining status of the US dollar as a reserve currency [1][4][10]. Group 1: Currency Fluctuations - The TWD experienced a 9% surge against the USD in the first two trading days, followed by a 3% drop, highlighting extreme volatility reminiscent of the Asian financial crisis [1][4]. - Despite the recent decline, the TWD has appreciated over 8% against the USD this year [4]. - Analysts note that the TWD's movements are indicative of a larger trend among Asian currencies, which are currently more unstable than during the Asian financial crisis [5][6]. Group 2: Global Capital Reallocation - A significant reallocation of global funds is underway, with a decrease in demand for the USD and a shift towards Asian currencies [7][9]. - The influx of funds into Asia is partly driven by concerns over US trade policies and the attractiveness of Asian assets [8][10]. - The high valuation of the USD, estimated to be overvalued by about 16%, is prompting a diversification of reserve assets away from the dollar [9][10]. Group 3: Economic Policies and Trade Relations - The potential for a "Hale-Kula Agreement" suggests a coordinated effort to devalue the USD to enhance export competitiveness, although this concept has not been formally implemented [5][6]. - The US's trade policies, particularly under the Trump administration, are causing uncertainty and impacting foreign investment confidence in US assets [10]. - Asian economies, particularly those with significant trade surpluses, are more susceptible to the effects of any coordinated currency valuation strategies [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakness of the US dollar is driven by fundamental changes rather than coordinated agreements like the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" [1][8] - Asian currencies, particularly the New Taiwan Dollar, are experiencing significant volatility, reflecting broader trends in global currency markets [3][9] Group 1: Currency Movements - The New Taiwan Dollar surged 9% against the US dollar in the first two trading days, reaching a three-year high, but fell over 3% on the sixth day due to increased demand for dollars from importers [3][4] - Despite the recent decline, the New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated over 8% against the US dollar this year [3] - The volatility of Asian currencies is currently more pronounced than during the Asian financial crisis, with analysts noting that the New Taiwan Dollar is particularly sensitive to external pressures [3][4] Group 2: Global Fund Reallocation - A significant reallocation of global funds is underway, with a shift away from the US dollar as Asian currencies gain traction [5][6] - The demand for the US dollar is decreasing among Asian central banks, indicating a potential long-term trend of diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets [5][6] - The recent movements in Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar, serve as a warning signal for the diminishing support for the US dollar in the region [5][6] Group 3: Economic Policies and Trade Relations - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" concept, aimed at depreciating the dollar to enhance US export competitiveness, has reignited discussions about currency valuation in the context of trade imbalances [4][5] - Concerns over US trade policies and potential tariffs are influencing investor sentiment, leading to a reduction in exposure to US assets [6][8] - The expectation of a weakening US dollar is prompting global investors to seek opportunities in Asian markets, particularly in currencies like the Korean Won and the Singapore Dollar [8][9]

2025.05. 06 本文字数：2836，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 继欧元、日元对美元大涨后，近期更多亚洲货币大幅飙升。5月5日，新台币盘中暴拉，单日对美元 的最大涨幅逼近10%。港元近期则对美元升值至强方保证，导致香港金管局连续几日出手抛售港元， 以维持联系汇率制。 早在特朗普当选美国总统后，"海湖庄园协议"就不胫而走，其核心之一就是美元贬值以振兴美国制造 业。"协议"的概念可追溯至现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰（Stephen Miran）去年11月发布的报 告《重组全球贸易体系的用户指南》。尽管"协议"是否被执行无从考证，但这似乎在驱动近期市场的 交易逻辑。美元指数从年初高点至今最大跌幅逼近10%。 国泰君安国际首席经济学家周浩对第一财经表示，市场既需要基本面，同时也需要一个故事。"海湖 庄园协议"、贸易谈判可能就是这个故事，而就基本面而言，新台币本身就容易升值，因为台湾保险 公司的保单需要用新台币支付（配置美元资产等高息资产），导致其在对冲时远期买入新台币，台湾 出口商也需要买新台币，因此远期衍生品市场始终显示新台币升值；港元升值的驱动因素则在于南向 资金买入港股、高才等人员流 ...

新台币单日对美元的最大涨幅逼近10%。 继欧元、日元对美元大涨后，近期更多亚洲货币大幅飙升。5月5日，新台币盘中暴拉，单日对美元的最大涨幅逼近10%。港元近期则对美元升值至强方保 证，导致香港金管局连续几日出手抛售港元，以维持联系汇率制。 早在特朗普当选美国总统后，"海湖庄园协议"就不胫而走，其核心之一就是美元贬值以振兴美国制造业。"协议"的概念可追溯至现任白宫经济顾问委员会主 席米兰（Stephen Miran）去年11月发布的报告《重组全球贸易体系的用户指南》。尽管"协议"是否被执行无从考证，但这似乎在驱动近期市场的交易逻辑。 美元指数从年初高点至今最大跌幅逼近10%。 面对新台币暴涨，台湾地区货币政策主管部门紧急召开新闻发布会，表示美国财政部并未要求台湾地区货币升值。对美贸易顺差扩大主要归因于台湾地区科 技产品需求上升，而非外汇因素。并呼吁企业停止考虑不切实际的市场分析，避免非理性抛售美元，以免自损。 当媒体询问是否会加强外汇市场管理时，该部门表示，由于强烈的升值预期，市场力量（主要是出口商和股票资金流入）过于强劲，当前市场波动"过度"， 但其也提到"不会逆转市场趋势"，而会对投机行为发出警告。 高盛交 ...

在这种背景下，美元资产的吸引力下降，资金自然向其他市场流动。 另外摩根大通表示，目前市场普遍认为，亚洲强势货币背后还有另一个强大推手——多年贸易顺差积累 的巨额美元资产开始回流，构成了强大的外汇对冲压力。 因此在这种背景下，尽管台湾中央银行两次公开澄清"美国财政部未施压要求本地货币升值"，但市场猜 测仍在继续。 市场为何坚信有协议？ 5月初亚洲货币迎来罕见的集体暴涨，其中新台币"大地震"两天飙升6.5%。除了中国台湾寿险巨头正集 体对冲美元敞口之外，市场正热议，中国台湾与美国达成的贸易协议可能包括加强台币汇率、降低其竞 争力的条款，这也加剧了台币的跳涨。 那么，一场幕后版的"海湖庄园协议"真的正在酝酿中吗？ 据追风交易台消息，尽管市场传言纷纷，但摩根大通在其最新外汇策略周报中认为，美元的疲软并非源 自某种协调性协议，而是由基本面等诸多变化推动的，比如美国经济增长预期被下调，贸易冲突的滞胀 担忧加剧；美联储独立性惹争议；美国期限溢价上升与美联储终端利率下降同时出现；德国财政政策转 向宽松，对欧洲资本市场形成支撑等。 而且与1985年广场协议不同，当前亚洲国家（尤其出口导向型经济）手中积累了大量美元资产。在这种 ...

美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）上周也在一次闭门会议上向投资者发表了讲话。贝森特 表示预计美国和中国将"在不久的将来"达成贸易协议，这番言论推动了美国股市上涨。但中国多次澄清 称，中美正在进行贸易谈判为"假消息"。 美国总统特朗普的首席经济顾问斯蒂芬・米兰（Stephen Miran）上周在一次会议上努力安抚主要债券投 资者，此前总统的关税政策引发华尔街剧烈动荡。 知情人士称，经济顾问委员会主席米兰上周五在白宫的艾森豪威尔行政办公楼会见了来自顶级对冲基金 和其他主要投资者的代表。 一些与会者认为上周五的会议起到了反效果，有两人形容米兰围绕关税和市场的言论"条理不清"或不完 整，其中一人称米兰"力不从心"。 一位了解此次会议情况的人士表示："（米兰）被问到很多问题，情况就在那个时候变得糟糕起来。当 你的听众懂得很多时，那些事先准备好的讲话要点很快就会被驳倒。" 另一位了解会议情况的人士则对政府放松监管和减税的举措感到鼓舞。 大约15名与会者包括对冲基金巴里亚斯尼（Balyasny）、都铎（Tudor）和城堡投资集团（Citadel）的 代表，以及资产管理公司保德信投资管理公司（PGIM） ...

4月29日，前美联储副主席、债券巨头Pimco全球经济顾问理查德·克拉里达（Richard Clarida）在英国 《金融时报》发表题为《广场协议和卢浮宫协议的真正教训（The real lessons from the Plaza and Louvre accords）》的专栏文章，对1985年广场协议和1987年卢浮宫协议进行了深入剖析，并"纠正"了长期以来 人们对这两项协议成功因素的普遍认知。 Clarida表示，大家普遍认为1985年的广场协议和1987年的卢浮宫协议之所以成功，主要是靠各国联合出 手干预外汇市场，这才让当时过分强势的美元贬值，也缩小了美国的巨额贸易逆差。 但他认为，这其实是个"神话"，或者说，是个流传甚广的误解。 Clarida强调，真正起决定性作用的，其实是当时美国国内的货币政策和财政政策调整。 从事后看，这两个协议确实达到了目标：到1987年，美元确实有序贬值了；到1989年，美国贸易逆差占 GDP的比重也减少了三分之二。 文章指出，而正是因为这个结果，很多人，甚至一些专业人士都觉得，是各国央行联手在外汇市场上买 卖美元（也就是所谓的"干预"），才促成了美元贬值和贸易平衡。 Cl ...