Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that removing Hamas leadership in Qatar would eliminate a major obstacle to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza [1] - The international community is closely monitoring the situation after a Russian drone unexpectedly entered Polish airspace, a NATO member [1] - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see interest rate decisions from G7 countries, excluding the US Federal Reserve, as well as from Brazil, South Africa, and Norway [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong bullish momentum, with a rise of over $360 in just four trading weeks, indicating robust demand [2] - The international silver market also saw an upward trend, reaching an annual high of $42.5 [2] - Domestic gold futures in China hit a historical high above 840, while silver futures continue to reach new highs, hovering around the 10,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Gold is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the direction following a correction, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3] - The price range for gold is currently between $3,612 and $3,674, with expectations that $3,674 is not a definitive peak but a temporary high [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,660-$3,657, with a potential breakout above these levels leading to new highs [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with key resistance levels at $3,657-$3,660 and support at $3,625 and $3,612 [7] - Trading strategies suggest focusing on selling at resistance levels and buying at support levels, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing the market [7]

本周，黄金周一继续强势上涨收阳，周二冲高回落，周三到周五维持高位震荡走势，周线最终收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 下周为"超级经济周"，多重重磅事件将影响黄金走势，具体如下： 周一：纽约制造业调查公布，反映区域经济活力，为市场提供初步经济基本面参考。 周二：8月美国零售销售报告发布，检验消费韧性，影响市场对美国经济走势的判断，进而作用于美联储政策预期。 周三：先是8月美国房屋开工与建筑许可数据出炉，随后加拿大央行公布货币政策决定，最关键的是美联储发布利率公告并召开鲍威尔新闻发布会，降息幅 度与鲍威尔的鸽派/鹰派基调将直接决定黄金短期走向。 周四：英国央行公布政策决定后，美国每周失业救济数据、费城联储制造业调查接踵而至，进一步补充经济基本面信息，影响市场情绪。 周五：日本央行公布决策，为当周全球央行政策密集期收官，或对全球流动性预期及黄金市场产生间接影响。 对于美联储利率决议，降息周期重启在即，点阵图成关键博弈点。 降息预期：市场普遍预计9月会议将降息25个基点（概率高），仅7%概率降息50个基点；市场定价显示，年内剩余3次会议或每次降息25个基点（累计70个 基点），2026年底预计降息141个基点。 核心关注点 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is surrounded by political drama, with a federal judge temporarily blocking President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, ensuring her position for the time being [2][3] - Stephen Milan's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board is progressing rapidly, potentially filling a vacancy by January 31, 2024, which could influence future interest rate decisions [3] - The market is closely watching not only the expected 25 basis point rate cut but also who will be responsible for the economic forecasts, as this could significantly impact market expectations for 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The temporary injunction by the judge has highlighted the ongoing struggle for the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising questions about the influence of political dynamics on monetary policy [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has slightly decreased from 90% to 82% in the past week, reflecting market uncertainty due to the ongoing political situation [3]

Group 1 - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with a possibility of a 50 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting [1][2] - There is a narrative suggesting the Fed may front-load rate cuts, potentially implementing a 50 basis point cut now and another 25 basis points in December, aiming for a total reduction of 125 basis points to reach a neutral level [2][3] - The market is already reacting to anticipated rate cuts, with small caps, midcaps, and interest rate-sensitive housing stocks showing improved performance [3][4] Group 2 - The anticipation of rate cuts has led to a positive shift in the performance of small caps, which have been underperforming, and housing stocks, which are beginning to see increased interest [4][5] - Interest rate-sensitive sectors are expected to continue to broaden out the market as the Fed's actions become clearer [5]

FOMC Statement - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to pass the interest rate decision with a voting ratio of 9-2, with Governors Bowman and Waller likely voting against it [1] - There is an anticipation of minimal substantive changes in the wording, possibly simplifying the expression of economic uncertainty and acknowledging the slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1] - The balance sheet reduction is likely to remain unchanged, with monthly reductions of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in MBS [1] Interest Rate Outlook - There is a focus on how to interpret the "two rate cuts" implied by the June dot plot and whether there will be any clues regarding a potential rate cut in September [1] - The emphasis on economic data is expected to continue, maintaining a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting decision-making communication style [1] - The stance on inflation and tariffs may remain cautious, reiterating the commitment to price stability; if tariffs are highlighted as an upward risk to inflation, it could indicate a more hawkish tone than anticipated [1] Term and Independence - In response to frequent pressures from Trump, it is likely that there will be no substantial response, with a reaffirmation of maintaining independence and professionalism during the term [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent questions the Federal Reserve's judgment on interest rates, suggesting that the current two-year Treasury yield indicates that the benchmark rate is too high [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - Bessent believes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has deviated in its judgment regarding interest rates [1] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [1] - Bessent indicates that if the Fed does not lower rates soon, the potential cut in September could be larger [1][2] Group 2: Future Leadership of the Federal Reserve - Bessent did not directly respond to calls for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's resignation but emphasized the need for the Fed to control spending like others [3] - There are strong candidates being considered for Powell's successor, with speculation that Trump may announce a replacement before September or October [3] - Potential candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Larry Kudlow, and Bessent himself, among others [3] Group 3: Rate Expectations and Debt Issuance - Bessent suggests that the Fed officials' rate expectations may be influenced by their appointment backgrounds, noting significant differences in the dot plot between Trump-appointed and non-Trump-appointed members [4] - The Treasury Department plans to significantly increase short-term debt issuance to replenish cash reserves following the increase in the federal debt ceiling [5] - Bessent mentions that the debt management process is systematic and orderly, but they will consider the current interest rate environment in future debt issuance strategies [5][6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during its June meeting and reiterated the possibility of two rate cuts later this year [1] - The Fed's updated projections for GDP, unemployment, and inflation showed slight revisions, but the market reacted minimally to the news [1] - There is a greater divergence among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with eight members expecting two cuts by the end of 2025, while seven members do not anticipate any cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns [1] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the predictive power of the dot plot, advising against overinterpretation of the forecasts [2] - Powell emphasized the uncertainty in the current economic environment, suggesting that as more data becomes available, the divergence in forecasts may decrease [2] - Concerns over geopolitical risks and trade dynamics contribute to a cautious economic outlook, as noted by UBS and other market analysts [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, amid concerns of worsening inflation and economic slowdown [1][2]. Economic Forecasts - The Fed projects that by the end of 2025, inflation will rise to 3%, up from a previous forecast of 2.7%, while the unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.5% from 4.4% [1]. - Economic growth is anticipated to slow to 1.4%, down from the earlier estimate of 1.7% [1][6]. Divergence Among Fed Officials - The latest dot plot indicates a more hawkish stance, with 7 officials expecting no rate cuts this year, compared to 4 in March, while the number of officials supporting two rate cuts has decreased from 9 to 8 [2][3]. - There is a notable split among Fed officials regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions [3][5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Fed Chair Powell highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the impact of U.S. government tariff policies on inflation, suggesting that these effects may be long-lasting [2][4]. - The Fed is closely monitoring the influence of tariffs on inflation, with concerns that they may lead to persistent inflationary pressures [4][6]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 were slightly adjusted, with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising, while U.S. stocks and gold weakened [2][5]. - Current market predictions indicate a 90% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in the upcoming meeting, with a 10% chance of a rate cut [5]. Employment Trends - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2% and non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations [7]. - The labor market is facing structural pressures, which may increase the demand for rate cuts in the medium to long term [7]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - Economists have differing views on the timing of potential rate cuts, with some suggesting that the Fed may not cut rates more than twice this year due to ongoing inflation concerns [8]. - There is speculation that the Fed may accelerate rate cuts in late 2025 or early 2026 if economic conditions continue to deteriorate [7][8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time since November of the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The Fed's statement highlights that economic activity is expanding steadily, with low unemployment and a strong labor market, although inflation remains slightly above the 2% target [1] - The Fed is committed to achieving maximum employment and the 2% inflation target, while closely monitoring data and economic outlook for future policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) shows a significant downward adjustment in GDP growth expectations for the next three years, with median growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised to 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, down from 1.7%, 1.8%, and 1.8% [3] - Unemployment rate expectations have been raised, with median rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4%, compared to previous expectations of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% [3] - Inflation expectations have also been increased, with median PCE and core PCE inflation rates for 2025 set at 3.0% and 3.1%, and for 2026 and 2027 at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, all above the Fed's 2% inflation target [3] Group 3 - The dot plot indicates that the median rate expectation for the end of 2024 is between 3.75% and 4.00%, suggesting a potential cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points from the current level, consistent with the March meeting results [3] - For the end of 2026, the median rate expectation is between 3.50% and 3.75%, which is higher than the previous range of 3.25% to 3.50%, indicating a narrowing of the expected rate cut from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that interest rate hikes are not a basic expectation, indicating uncertainty among decision-makers regarding the path of interest rates [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Outlook - Decision-makers lack high confidence in the projected interest rate path, with predictions focusing on the most likely scenarios rather than strong convictions [1] - The dot plot reflects the most probable path but does not necessarily indicate strong confidence in those projections [1]