Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core decision - making group led by Powell is inclined to cut interest rates three times this year, which is considered the basic scenario. Next year, due to the collective reshuffle of the Fed Chairman and regional Fed presidents, the dot - plot has limited reference value, and the Fed's independence needs to be re - evaluated. "Risk - management type interest rate cuts" imply limited interest rate cut space unless subsequent labor data continues to deteriorate [2][3] Summary by Related Contents Fed's Interest Rate Decision in September - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected at the September FOMC meeting, and the pace of balance - sheet reduction remained unchanged. The market focused on the subsequent interest rate cut rhythm indicated by the dot - plot and the impact of political pressure on the Fed [2] - The biggest change in the meeting statement was the clear indication that "downside risks to employment have risen", which was consistent with Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. In the voting session, most members supported a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, and only the newly - appointed Miran called for a 50 - basis - point cut [2] Dot - Plot Implication - The dot - plot implies three interest rate cuts this year, which dispels the market's concerns about hawkish interest rate cuts. Compared with June, the dot - plot in September is more dovish, with the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 increasing from 2 to 3, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at one cut per year, and the long - term interest rate forecast stays at 3% [2] - There is still a stalemate in the FOMC regarding the number of interest rate cuts this year. Among 19 members, 10 support three or more cuts, and 9 support two or fewer cuts. Excluding extreme values, the dot - plot shows a 25 - basis - point parallel downward shift compared to June, indicating that the core decision - making group supports three cuts this year [2] Economic Forecast - The latest economic forecast shows that the Fed is "cautiously optimistic" about the economic outlook. GDP growth is slightly up, inflation is slightly higher, and the unemployment rate is basically stable. This year's GDP growth rate is about 1.6%, next year it is 1.8%; overall PCE inflation is 3.0% this year, expected to drop to 2.6% in 2026 and approach 2.1% in 2028; the unemployment rate is about 4.5% at the end of the year and will decline slightly thereafter [2] - Interest rate cuts in this context may reflect that the Fed believes that a faster approach to the neutral interest rate can hedge against the downward pressure on employment and growth without significantly sacrificing price stability [2] Reasons for "Risk - Management Type Interest Rate Cuts" - The current labor market has a dual decline in supply and demand. Reduced immigration and lower labor force participation lead to a decrease in labor supply, and the rise in the unemployment rate reflects a slowdown in job creation. The "low recruitment, low lay - off" characteristic of the labor market makes the Fed adopt "risk - management type interest rate cuts" [6] - The slow transfer of inflation provides room for interest rate cuts. The expected impact of tariffs is a "one - time price - level increase", and companies between exporters and consumers bear the tariff costs. With the weakening of the labor market, the risk of continuous inflation further decreases, allowing the Fed to shift its policy focus [6] Focus on Fed's Independence - Powell emphasized at the press conference that the Fed works based on the latest data and does not consider other factors. The 12 - member rotating voting system requires a strong argument for a single voter to persuade others [6] - When asked about including the "moderate long - term interest rate" as a third mission, Powell stated that the Fed has a dual mission, and the moderate long - term interest rate is a natural result of stable inflation and maximum employment, and will not be incorporated into the policy - making framework [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the September 2025 meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, lowering the policy rate to 4 - 4.25%, with Governor Milan voting against and advocating for a 50BP cut [1] - The Fed's meeting statement emphasized the downside risk to employment, stating that new job growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has marginally increased but remains low [1] - In the SEP economic forecast, the Fed raised its expectation for interest rate cuts this year, lowering the year - end policy rate forecast from 3.9% to 3.6%, implying two more rate cuts this year [1] - The Fed also adjusted GDP growth, core PCE growth, and unemployment rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026, which may reflect the Fed's use of rate cuts to eliminate risks in the job market [1] - Although the dot plot revised up the expected rate cuts for the year, Powell did not clearly turn dovish at the press conference, stating that the rate cut was a "risk management cut" and that he was still in a data - watching mode [1] - In terms of asset prices, US Treasury yields first declined following the dovish dot - plot guidance and then rose due to Powell's "risk management" remarks. The US dollar index also moved in a similar pattern [1] - The Fed's future rate - cut path remains uncertain. There is a probability of a 25BP rate cut at the end - October meeting, but whether there will be a rate cut in December depends on inflation [1] - In the short term, the 10Y US Treasury yield may face resistance at 4%. The 10Y US Treasury yield needs a strong catalyst to break below 4%, and the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate with rate - cut expectations before a real recession risk emerges in the US [4] Summary by Related Aspects Fed Meeting Results - In the September 2025 meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, lowering the policy rate to 4 - 4.25%, with one dissenting vote for a 50BP cut [1] - The Fed's statement emphasized employment risks, and the SEP economic forecast adjusted multiple economic indicators and raised the expectation for rate cuts this year [1] Powell's Stance - Powell did not clearly turn dovish at the press conference. He attributed the 25BP rate cut to a change in the risk - balance relationship between inflation and employment and described it as a "risk management cut" [1] Asset Price Movements - US Treasury yields first declined and then rose, with the 2Y and 10Y yields up 1BP and 4BP respectively compared to before the meeting. The US dollar index also moved in a similar pattern [1] Future Rate - Cut Outlook - The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain. There is a probability of a 25BP rate cut in October, and the December decision depends on inflation [1] Strategy Suggestions - In the short term, the 10Y US Treasury yield may face resistance at 4%. It needs a strong catalyst to break below 4%. The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate with rate - cut expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, amid slowing economic growth and a weakening labor market [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Economic activity in the U.S. has slowed down in the first half of the year, with job growth also decelerating and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [1][3]. - Inflation remains elevated, with the Fed acknowledging that inflation has recently risen again, despite the ongoing challenges in the labor market [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision - The decision to cut rates was passed with 8 votes in favor and 1 against, with only one member advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [3][4]. - The Fed's statement reflects a "hawkish" stance, recognizing the increased risks to the labor market while also noting the uptick in inflation [3][5]. Group 3: Future Projections - The Fed forecasts an additional 50 basis points cut by the end of the year, with expectations of 25 basis points cuts in each of the following two years [4]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed's focus is shifting towards the labor market, with a potential for accelerated rate cuts to stabilize growth amid ongoing fiscal pressures [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Fed's dot plot indicates the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1][2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, emphasizing the need to respond to a cooling labor market [1][3]. - The Fed's economic forecast report slightly upgraded GDP growth predictions for 2025 and 2026 to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, both up by 0.2 percentage points from June [2]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - The Fed is prioritizing employment over inflation, indicating a higher tolerance for inflation in the short term [2][3]. - The projected unemployment rate remains stable at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, unchanged from previous forecasts [2]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Future Projections - There is significant division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with 9 out of 19 voting members supporting two more cuts, while others are more cautious [3][5]. - The dot plot reflects a lack of consensus, with some members advocating for only one additional cut or none at all [5][6]. - The Fed's decision-making process is reportedly unaffected by political factors, as emphasized by Powell [6][7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, indicating a shift towards employment-focused policies rather than inflation-driven decisions [1][2][6] - The latest "dot plot" revealed that 12 out of 19 FOMC members expect at least one more rate cut this year, signaling a stronger dovish stance than previously anticipated [2][4] - Fed Chair Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, emphasizing the current weakness in the labor market while downplaying the likelihood of aggressive easing [1][6] Group 2 - UBS analysts noted the inconsistency in the Fed's actions, as they lowered rates while simultaneously predicting accelerated economic growth and rising inflation [4] - Market reactions were volatile, with initial optimism quickly reversing as Powell's comments led to a surge in bond yields and a decline in stock prices, particularly in tech stocks [7][12] - The Fed's cautious approach suggests a gradual easing of rates rather than a dramatic shift, with future policy decisions heavily reliant on upcoming economic data [10][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 in favor of the rate cut, with the only dissenting vote from newly appointed member Stephen Milan, who advocated for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The rate cut is characterized as a "preventive cut" aimed at increasing market liquidity to stimulate economic activity and support the job market, while also mitigating the risk of a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, market reactions were muted, with initial gains in both stock and bond markets quickly reversing. The Dow Jones increased by 0.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively [3] - Investors had anticipated that the rate cut would boost the economy and corporate profits, contributing to recent highs in major stock indices [3] Group 3: Future Projections - The Federal Reserve updated its "dot plot," indicating expectations for two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year, which is one more than previously forecasted in June [5] - Some officials predict a total reduction of 125 basis points in the policy rate by the end of the year, reflecting a dovish stance among committee members [5] Group 4: Political Influence and Economic Concerns - Analysts express concerns that the rate cut may be influenced by political pressure from President Trump, with some arguing that the labor market is not weak enough to justify a rate cut [7] - Powell stated that political considerations do not influence the Fed's decisions regarding the benchmark lending rate, emphasizing the independence of the Federal Reserve [7]

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first action since December of the previous year [3] - Market reactions were volatile, with major U.S. stock indices initially rising before sharply declining, and the U.S. dollar index hitting a new low since 2025 before rebounding [3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments indicated a cautious approach to rate adjustments, framing the cut as a risk management measure [3] - The FOMC highlighted increased downside risks to employment and described economic activity as slowing, with inflation remaining relatively high [3] - The dot plot indicated expectations for two more rate cuts by the end of the year, with one dissenting opinion advocating for a 50 basis point cut [4][5] Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop following the FOMC announcement, trading around $3,660 after peaking at $3,706 [1][5] - Technical analysis suggests that after reaching new highs, gold is now in a corrective phase, with potential for further fluctuations depending on market strength [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, aligning with market expectations [1] - This marks the first rate cut of 2025 and follows three rate cuts in 2024, with indications of two more cuts expected this year [1][3] - The Federal Open Market Committee noted a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, with employment growth decelerating and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains at historically low levels [1] Group 2 - Inflation rates have risen and remain relatively high, with the Fed's monetary policy goals focused on achieving full employment and stabilizing long-term inflation at 2% [1] - The committee expressed concerns about the uncertainty in the economic outlook and acknowledged the rising risks to achieving its dual mandate, leading to the decision to initiate rate cuts [1] - The voting outcome for the rate cut was 11 to 1, with Stephen Milan being the sole dissenting vote advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1] Group 3 - The Fed's latest economic outlook indicates that 9 out of 19 officials believe there will be two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, with one official suggesting a total cut of 1.25% this year [3] - Historically, the Fed has utilized the dollar's dominance to adjust interest rates in a manner that serves U.S. interests, impacting global wealth distribution [3][5] - From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised rates 11 times, totaling 525 basis points, reaching the highest level since 2001 [5]

当地时间9月17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%，暗示年内可能 继续降息两次。 一图速览>> ■ 关于就业: 劳动力市场正在走软,我们不需 要它继续进一步走软,(而目) 也不希望它走软。 新任美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰如何主张？ 最新点阵图透露哪些信息？ 关于 风险管理式降息、 反对票、通胀情况，鲍威尔如何表态？ 机构如何解读本次降息？ 25 25 2024 50 2025 有记录来美联储利率走势 *图中数据为目标利率最 2008/1: 2020/03 美联储最新点阵图 点阵图显示,美联储 内部分歧巨大。 在此次降息后,赞成 | : : 年内按兵不动或再降 : + + = = ... 息2次的委员分别有6 :: 位和9位。外界预测, 有1位主张年内激进降 息150个基点的委员 可能是刚进入美联储 理事会的米兰。 2027 2025 2024 相比之下,2026年的预测分布更为分散,利率区间中值集中在 3.25%-3.75%,与目前的利率水平相比,有75个基点的降息空间。 美联储主席鲍威尔 机构解读 ■ 关于风险管理式降息: ■ 摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家 在某种程度上, ...

安联贸易北美高级经济学家Dan North谈及仅有一张反对票(此前部分预期会出现多张反对票)时表 示，"也许他们有点抱团取暖的意思，心想'新来的米兰，他的议程显而易见。让我们团结起来，确保他 明白我们的立场，以及我们都致力于同一目标'。" 贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder在谈及潜在的美联储主席继任者表示，"我们认为未来几 年，美联储在实现充分就业和价格稳定双重使命时面临的主要挑战实际上是充分就业。我们再次目睹一 个当前运行良好、企业运营非常健康的经济体，但民众的就业环境正在显著恶化。因此，我们认为这将 成为美联储在未来数月、数季度乃至数年内需要帮助解决的新挑战。" 至少部分困惑可能源于鲍威尔将此次降息定性为"风险管理"式操作。除此之外，尽管FOMC暗示今年将 以较快步伐降息(在10月和12月剩余两次会议上行动)，但其预计未来两年每年仅降息一次，2028年则不 降息。这种鸽派与鹰派的混合让市场感到不安。 会议开始时政治意味浓厚，新任理事斯蒂芬·米兰在周二宣誓就职后首次参会。然而，鲍威尔几乎没有 流露出紧张气氛。"任何投票者真正改变局势的唯一方法是具有难以置信的说服力，而在我们工作的背 景下，做 ...