1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-05-06 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，五一小长假结束，国内出栏积极性减弱生猪价格节前小幅反弹节后或回归弱势 ，预计节后本周供给或猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，五一假期结束居民整体 消费意愿热情回落，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征关税，提振市场 信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期呈震荡偏弱格局。关注月初集团场出栏节奏 变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价14790元/吨，2509合约基差880元/吨，现货升水期货。偏多。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs decreased after the Spring Festival, with reduced enthusiasm for slaughter, and the pig price fluctuated slightly. It is expected that both the supply of pigs and pork will decrease this week. - The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook, and the demand for fresh pork is weak after the Spring Festival. However, the recent tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. - Overall, the market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a range - bound pattern with a slight fluctuation in the weekly price center. - The LH2509 contract of live pigs should be traded within the range of 14,200 to 14,600 intraday [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt The document does not provide relevant content. 2. Recent News - China's recent tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. The domestic pig consumption market is in a seasonal off - season, with reduced large - pig slaughter, resulting in a decrease in both supply and demand. The spot price remains volatile, and the futures are strongly volatile due to basis support. - After the release of pork demand during the Spring Festival, it weakened in the short term. The spot price of live pigs was relatively strong due to reduced slaughter, but the downstream consumption expectation was poor, and the overall spot price was still weak. - The profit of domestic pig farming has declined from its high level but still has short - term profit. The enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter has decreased, and the light supply supports the expected price of live pig futures and spot [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Decreased supply of live pigs after the Spring Festival in China; Tariff increase on imported pork from the US and Canada [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: Monthly increase in the domestic live pig inventory; The entry of pig and pork consumption into the off - season, which suppresses the pork price [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the supply of live pigs decreased, and the demand was also weak. The market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, and the pig price will return to a range - bound pattern [8]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 14,860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is 535 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 427.43 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of the end of November 2024, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% [8]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [8]. 5. Position Data The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [8].