证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 11 月 8 日 港股红利收涨，资金主要流入港股 TMT ETF ETF 基金周度跟踪（1103-1107） 本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 本周（11 月 3 日-11 月 7 日）股票 ETF 涨跌分化。其中，港股红利 ETF 和港股主题类 ETF（主要是央国企主题）涨幅靠前，规模以上基金平均上 涨 3.62%、3.51%。相反，港股医药生物 ETF 和 A 股医药生物 ETF 跌幅靠 前，规模以上基金分别平均下跌 3.37%、3.17%。 ❑ 资金流动： 资金大幅流入港股 TMT ETF，全周资金净流入 90.65 亿元。相反，A 股大 盘 ETF 资金大幅净流出 122.64 亿元。 ❑ 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.c ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3997.56 points, down 0.25%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13404.06 points, down 0.36% [6][10] - The basic chemical sector is leading the gains, with the basic chemical index rising by 2.64%, while the technology sector is under pressure, with declines in various indices [6][10] - The overall market shows 2099 stocks rising and 3155 stocks falling, with a total transaction volume of 2.02 trillion, indicating active trading [6][10] Bond Market - The bond futures market continues to show a weak adjustment, with the 30-year contract closing at 115.95 yuan, down 0.15% [10] - The funding environment remains relatively loose, with the overnight Shibor rising by 1.4 basis points to 1.327% [10] - A cautious optimism is suggested for the bond market, with attention to domestic policies and the effects of central bank operations [10][11] Commodity Market - The commodity index has slightly adjusted, with lithium carbonate showing strong performance, up 3.24% [10] - Lithium carbonate futures closed at 82,300 yuan per ton, supported by high demand growth in battery production [10] - Gold prices are stabilizing around 4000 USD per ounce, with the central bank continuing to increase its gold reserves [10][11] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation strategy focusing on dividend stocks, micro-cap stocks, and industry trends, while being cautious of the current market's volatility [6][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of U.S. tech stock fluctuations on the A-share growth sector [6][11] - The report emphasizes the potential for strong performance in commodities like lithium and precious metals, recommending continued investment in these areas [10][11]

Market Overview - The meeting between the US and Chinese leaders has temporarily eased tariff tensions, coinciding with the release of Q3 earnings reports[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 4000 points, with an average weekly trading volume stabilizing above 20 trillion CNY[1] Trading Activity - Dividend stocks and micro-cap stocks have shown a rebound in trading activity, with low valuation stocks also seeing increased engagement[4] - Weekly trading activity in the insurance, non-metal materials, and comprehensive finance sectors has notably improved[4] Fund Performance - The Fund Heavyweight 50 Index experienced a weekly return adjustment, indicating a slight decline of 1.05%[24] - The Northbound Heavyweight Index outperformed the CSI 300 Index, reflecting a positive trend in cross-border investments[28] Sector Performance - The materials and industrial sectors led the weekly gains, with significant increases in trading activity observed[30] - The insurance sector saw a notable rise in trading activity, with its percentile ranking improving by 22.3% compared to the previous period[21] Investment Themes - The Yangtze Low Carbon Leader Index and the Medical Beauty Index performed well, with weekly returns of 3.64% and 4.62% respectively[36] - The carbon neutrality theme continues to attract investor interest, as evidenced by the strong performance of related indices[36]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed above the 4000-point mark, ending at 4016.33, with a gain of 0.70% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.95% to 13691.38, while the ChiNext Index increased by 2.93% to 3324.27, marking a significant upward trend in the market [2][4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electric Power Equipment (+4.79%), Non-ferrous Metals (+4.28%), and Non-bank Financials (+2.08%) [3] - Conversely, the sectors that underperformed were Banks (-1.98%), Food & Beverage (-0.56%), and Textiles & Apparel (-0.24%) [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by a favorable macroeconomic environment and ongoing capital inflows, with a trading volume of 2.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 108.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), New Energy, and Non-ferrous Metals, as the market is likely to maintain a steady upward trajectory [6] Policy Insights - The recent announcement from the Central Committee emphasizes the need to accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse, which includes enhancing the central bank's system and developing various financial sectors such as technology finance and green finance [5] - The central bank's commitment to preventing systemic financial risks and supporting the capital market's positive momentum is expected to bolster market confidence [5]

Group 1 - The overall fund positions increased in Q3 2025, with a notable rise in the allocation to the ChiNext board, increasing by 4.06 percentage points to 19.27%, while the allocation to the main board decreased by 5.75 percentage points to 66.76% [6][15][24] - In terms of industry allocation, public funds increased their exposure to technology while reducing their allocation to consumer, cyclical, and manufacturing sectors. The sectors with the highest overweight included electronics, telecommunications, power and new energy equipment, and healthcare [6][28][33] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector saw an overall increase in positions, with funds increasing their allocation to electronics and telecommunications while reducing their exposure to the computer sector [6][28][33] Group 2 - The allocation to high-dividend sectors decreased, with the proportion of high-dividend industry holdings dropping by 5.34 percentage points to 4.62% in Q3 2025 [6][45] - The export-related sectors showed mixed trends, with an increase in allocation to components and parts by 3.0 percentage points to 9.85%, while the allocation to household appliances decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 2.54% [6][28] - The healthcare sector saw a decrease in allocation, with public funds reducing their exposure to the food and beverage industry while increasing their positions in power and new energy equipment [6][28][33]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market indices collectively rose on October 27, with technology and chip stocks showing significant activity, indicating a positive market sentiment despite macro uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) followed the index's upward trend, with major holdings like Baidu, ASMPT, Alibaba, and Tencent showing notable gains [1] - The market is currently in a phase of low trading volume and volatility due to macro uncertainties, but investor sentiment remains relatively stable with a willingness to "bottom-fish" [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Short-term market movements are expected to remain volatile, with recommendations for investors to slightly adjust their positions towards a "dumbbell" structure [1] - Key sectors attracting investor attention include low-positioned stocks in the Hang Seng Technology Index, A-share computing, and robotics, which are seen as primary investment targets [1] - Given the uncertainties, there is an opportunity for a rebound in previously underperforming dividend stocks, with suggestions to consider large-cap dividend stocks like banks [1] - Investors are advised to make selective investments in consumer sectors due to weak expectations for fundamentals [1] Group 3: Related ETFs - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) supports T+0 trading and is driven by "hard technology + new consumption" [2] - The A-share Sci-Tech Innovation 50 ETF (159783) focuses on high elasticity stocks covering semiconductor, communication equipment, battery, and photovoltaic sectors [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong rebound today, with the ChiNext and STAR Market leading the gains, and the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3900 points. The total trading volume reached 1.8 trillion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with more than 4600 stocks rising [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36% to close at 3916.33 points, with a trading volume of 837.9 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.06% to 13077.32 points, with a trading volume of 1036 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index surged by 3.02% to 3083.72 points [2] Sector Performance - Financial sectors, including brokerage and banking, saw significant gains, with Agricultural Bank of China achieving a 13-day consecutive rise, setting a new historical high. Other sectors such as computing hardware continued to rebound, with leading companies like New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang experiencing substantial increases [1] - New themes emerged, particularly in deep earth technology, with companies like ShenKai Co. and Petrochemical Machinery achieving consecutive gains, boosting related sectors such as deep-sea technology, engineering machinery, shale gas, and combustible ice [1] - In contrast, the coal sector experienced a pullback, with Antai Group hitting its daily limit down [1] Fund Flow - Major funds focused on sectors such as communication equipment, securities, and consumer electronics, with significant net inflows into stocks like Luxshare Precision, New Yisheng, and Industrial Fulian [3] Industry News - The National Medical Products Administration announced plans to enhance support for medical device R&D and innovation, aiming to accelerate the market entry of innovative products [4] - CATL plans to establish over 2500 "chocolate" battery swap stations in more than 120 cities by 2026, with the current number exceeding 700 nationwide [5] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that in September, automobile exports surpassed 600,000 units, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle exports [6] Market Outlook - Dongfang Securities suggests that the market sentiment is approaching a neutral level, making it unrealistic to expect a strong index rise, with range-bound fluctuations expected to remain the primary market characteristic [1][10] - CITIC Securities indicates that the market is in a consolidation phase, with a shift in fund styles and a cautious sentiment due to external trade uncertainties [9] - China Galaxy emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with strong policy support and performance certainty, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" and the concentrated disclosure of Q3 reports [9]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities believes that the bull market logic remains intact despite the recent market consolidation, driven by capital market reforms and structural prosperity [1] Market Conditions - Following a peak in trading activity in the computing power sector in early September, the market has entered a consolidation phase characterized by high capital rotation, index stagnation, and reduced trading volume [1] - The current market conditions are attributed to the failure to meet the criteria for ending the bull market consolidation, ongoing uncertainties in US-China relations, and reduced volatility ahead of key meetings [1] Investment Strategy - The company suggests a shift in investment style, with short-term focus on "countermeasures + risk aversion" and a year-end focus on dividend and technology styles [1] - Key sectors to watch include dividends, non-ferrous metals (rare earths, precious metals), large financials (banks, insurance), steel, agriculture, AI, batteries, chips, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a "first decline, then rise" trend in the fourth quarter, with short-term fluctuations due to a lack of incremental positive factors, but potential upward support from easing tariff issues, new economic policies, and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market are anticipated due to a lack of new positive factors [1] - Marginal positive factors expected to accumulate include: 1) Continuous innovation breakthroughs in China's technology sector; 2) Low probability of high tariffs being implemented, leading to potential easing of China-U.S. tariff issues; 3) Discussions on the "15th Five-Year Plan" at the Fourth Plenary Session, boosting risk appetite; 4) Ongoing strengthening of expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - In the medium to long term, a "dual easing" policy from China and the U.S. is expected to drive continuous capital inflow, improving fundamentals and profit expectations, leading to a slow bull trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - The "four offensive" sectors include: 1) Non-ferrous metals driven by U.S. dollar depreciation, low interest rates, and liquidity; 2) Technology stocks benefiting from rapid advancements in AI and high demand in new industries; 3) Power sector focusing on themes like controllable nuclear fusion and equipment exports; 4) Insurance sector with improved equity investment returns due to rising stock markets [2] - The "two bottom warehouse" strategy is suitable for long-term investment and risk aversion, focusing on: 1) "Dilemma reversal" strategy in essential consumption sectors showing initial supply-demand turning points; 2) High dividend strategy with a stable dividend yield of 6.29% in the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index, driven by increasing demand for "fixed income+" products [2]

Group 1 - The current market is characterized as an epic bull market, with expectations for the Shanghai Composite Index to double, but many investors may not feel its effects due to misalignment with market strategies [1] - Many investors are experiencing losses not because of a bear market, but due to a misunderstanding of the bull market dynamics and their own portfolio logic [3] - The current bull market is likely to be a comprehensive one, driven by sector rotation rather than broad-based increases, with two main themes: dividends and technology [3] Group 2 - A potential replication of the 2014 market trend is anticipated, with expectations of a significant rise in the fourth quarter, which could lead to a 10-15% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [5] - The rise of heavyweight stocks such as banks, insurance, and energy could significantly boost the index, even if many individual stocks decline [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has already surpassed its 2021 high, while the CSI 300 Index has also seen substantial gains, indicating a selective market performance [5] Group 3 - The outlook for the market remains optimistic, particularly for the index, with the potential for significant upward movement if heavyweight assets rally [7] - The ability of investors to benefit from the market rally depends on their holdings in key sectors like banking, insurance, and energy [7]